Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in wealth management scale, reaching a historical high of 32.13 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9.42% [14][18] - Despite a slight decrease in payout returns, the enthusiasm for new product fundraising remains strong, with an average single fundraising amount of 22.64 billion yuan, reflecting a robust willingness among investors to shift deposits into wealth management [20][21] - The report emphasizes the need for wealth management to adapt to industry changes by enhancing absolute return defenses and diversifying product offerings to cater to different customer segments [56][57] Summary by Sections 1. Liability Side: "Deposit Migration" Catalyzes High Growth in Wealth Management - Wealth management scale has reached a historical peak, with a growth of 2.18 trillion yuan in 2025, and Q3 typically being a peak season for wealth management [14][18] - Wealth management generated 179.2 billion yuan in returns for investors in Q3 2025, despite a slight decline compared to Q2 [17][21] 2. Asset Side: Increasing Allocation to Deposits & Repos, Building a Low-Volatility Safety Net - By the end of Q3 2025, cash and bank deposits accounted for 27.5% of the asset allocation, the highest recorded [25][27] - The proportion of wealth management supporting the real economy has decreased to 65%, marking a new low [35] 3. Competitive Landscape: Non-Licensed Banks' Wealth Management Market Share Falls Below 10% - By the end of Q3 2025, the scale of wealth management from non-licensed banks was 2.85 trillion yuan, representing 8.87% of the total market, the first time falling below 10% [37][38] - The report notes a trend of smaller banks transitioning to pure distribution models to enhance their income from wealth management products [51][52] 4. Conclusion: Upholding Absolute Returns and Enhancing Customer Segmentation, A Multi-Asset Future is Promising - The report suggests that low-volatility wealth management products may serve as the first stop for outflowing deposits, with a focus on maintaining fundraising momentum through diversified product offerings [56][57]

Core Viewpoint - The banking and wealth management industry is shifting focus from holiday-specific financial products to existing products with stable historical returns, reflecting a more rational investment approach among clients [2][5][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - This year, the market for holiday-specific financial products is notably "cold," with a preference for existing financial products that have demonstrated stable performance [3][4]. - Major financial institutions, including Ping An Wealth Management and China Merchants Bank Wealth Management, are promoting "holiday wealth management" themes, emphasizing short-term products with low to medium risk [3][4]. Group 2: Product Performance - Several recommended financial products have shown impressive historical returns, with one product from ICBC achieving a monthly annualized return of 12.01% and a lifetime annualized return of 8.42% [6]. - Other products from Huayin Wealth Management and China Merchants Bank also reported strong performance, with annualized returns of 7.43% and 5.73% respectively [6][7]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - Investors are increasingly focused on stable, low-risk financial products due to previous market fluctuations and the transition to net value-based financial products [5][7]. - The average annualized return for existing open-ended fixed-income products is significantly lower than the returns of the promoted products, indicating a competitive advantage for these offerings [7].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported that as of the end of August, the broad money supply (M2) reached 331.98 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [2][6] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 111.23 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 6%, with a month-on-month acceleration of 0.4 percentage points, marking four consecutive months of growth [2][6] - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" has become a hot topic, with individual deposits increasing by 110 billion yuan in August, although this is still 600 billion yuan less than the same month last year [2][7] Group 2 - In August, new RMB loans amounted to 590 billion yuan, recovering from negative growth in the previous month, but still 310 billion yuan less year-on-year [6] - The analysis indicates that the narrowing "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 growth rates suggests ample market liquidity and increased activity in corporate current funds, but weak credit generation efficiency [6][8] - The increase in deposits at non-bank financial institutions by 1.18 trillion yuan in August, which is 550 billion yuan more than the previous year, highlights the ongoing trend of "deposit migration" [7][8] Group 3 - Factors contributing to the current wave of deposit migration include reduced deposit interest rates, regulatory restrictions on manual interest supplementation, and rising stock market performance [8] - Popular investment products during this period include fixed-income products and equity funds, as they continue to attract significant capital despite the decline in net growth rates of money market and bond funds [9][10]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend recently, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching above 3700 points during the week of August 11 to August 15 [1] - In July, there was a significant increase in non-bank deposits, raising concerns about "deposit migration," as non-bank deposits include those from securities, trusts, wealth management, and funds [1] - According to the People's Bank of China, RMB deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan in the first seven months of the year, with non-bank financial institution deposits rising by 4.69 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - In July alone, RMB deposits increased by 500 billion yuan, with household deposits decreasing by 1.11 trillion yuan and non-bank deposits increasing by 2.14 trillion yuan [1] - The shift in household deposits towards wealth management products and the stock market is attributed to the recent rise in the stock market, leading to a significant increase in non-bank deposits [2] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in July reached 1.9636 million, a year-on-year increase of over 70%, indicating heightened market activity [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current round of deposit transfer continues, with a stronger momentum in July than the same period last year. In July, the combined deposits of residents and enterprises decreased by 2.56 trillion yuan, reaching a four - year high. The growth rate of resident deposits slightly declined, while the growth rate of non - bank deposits significantly rebounded to 15% [2][12]. - The money - making effect in the bond market has declined, and funds are more likely to flow into the "fixed income +" and equity markets. Since 2025, the bond market has entered a "three - low" era of low interest rates, low spreads, and low volatility. The scale growth rates of bond funds and money market funds have declined, and there has been redemption pressure since July. The growth rate of fixed - income wealth management products has also slowed down. The market risk preference has continuously increased, and the net value of equity funds has maintained high - speed growth. The growth of equity and hybrid wealth management products is not obvious, but their yields have been rising. The transferred deposits have flowed into non - bank institutions but not significantly into wealth management products, indicating that both financial institutions and residents' deposits are flowing into "fixed income +" and equity assets, which are important driving forces for the current bull market in equities [2][16]. - The expectation of a bond bull market has changed, the yield curve has steepened upwards, which may trigger a second - round redemption wave. It is recommended to control the duration, allocate anti - decline medium - and short - duration credit bonds. Asset management institutions with longer durations can seize the opportunity of loose funds during the initial issuance of special treasury bonds to reduce the duration. Stable - liability allocation investors are advised to moderately increase their allocation of 10Y treasury bonds in the range of 1.75% - 1.80% and 30Y treasury bonds in the range of 2.0 - 2.05% [3][21][24]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Review and Outlook of the Bond Market - This week, the market risk preference further increased, the equity market rose sharply, and the bond market sentiment was under pressure, with the yield curve steepening. The yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds increased by 6bp and 9bp respectively. The deposit transfer continued in July, with a stronger intensity than last year. The money - making effect in the bond market declined, and funds flowed into the "fixed income +" and equity markets [11][12][16]. - The expectation of a bond bull market has changed, the yield curve has steepened upwards, which may trigger a second - round redemption wave. The 7 - month social financing and credit data released this week were lower than expected, and domestic demand weakened, but the bond market was insensitive to the positive fundamentals. The overnight capital price increased marginally during the tax period, but the central bank maintained its supportive attitude, and the liquidity environment remained relatively abundant. It is expected that the central bank will continue to support the market during the initial issuance of 10 - year and 30 - year special treasury bonds next week [3][21][24]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Funding Situation - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds this week, and the funding rate increased. From August 11 to August 15, R001 and DR001 increased by 10bp and 9bp respectively compared to August 8, reaching 1.44% and 1.40%. The issuance rate of 3M certificates of deposit fluctuated upwards and then declined, and the FR007 - 1Y swap rate first increased, then decreased, and then slightly rebounded. By August 15, the transfer discount price of 1M national - share bank acceptance bills was 0.87%, a 10bp decrease compared to August 8 [25][26]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Yields increased this week. Except for the 3m and 3y tenors, the yields of other key - term treasury bonds increased. Except for the 3y - 1y, 7y - 5y, and 30 - 20y term spreads, other key - term treasury bond term spreads widened. As of August 15, the yields of 10y and 30y treasury bonds increased by 6bp and 9bp respectively compared to August 8, reaching 1.75% and 2.05%. The term spread between them widened by 2bp to 30bp, which is at a medium - to - high percentile level in history [34]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - This week, the median durations of all - sample bond funds and interest - rate bond funds decreased, and the divergence slightly increased. The turnover rate of ultra - long bonds rebounded, and the spreads between 50Y - 30Y and 20Y - 30Y treasury bonds widened. The inter - bank leverage ratio decreased to 107.5%, and the exchange leverage ratio remained flat at 122.4%. The implied tax rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds widened [44]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - The net financing of interest - rate bonds decreased this week. From August 11 to August 15, the net financing of interest - rate bonds was 3791 billion yuan, a decrease of 2461 billion yuan compared to last week. The net financing of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - based financial bonds all decreased. Next week, new 10Y treasury bonds and 30Y special treasury bonds will be issued for the first time. The issuance scale of local government bonds will increase, and the planned issuance of policy - based financial bonds is 340 billion yuan. This week, the net financing of certificates of deposit turned negative, and the issuance rate slightly increased to 1.61% [59][62][64]. 3.3 Economic Data - In July, loans showed negative growth, but the growth rate of social finance still had resilience. The growth of social retail sales further slowed down, and the decline in real estate investment widened. Since August, port throughput has returned to strength, and industrial production has marginally recovered. The high - frequency infrastructure and price data this week showed that the mill operating rate rebounded, vegetable prices continued to rise, and asphalt prices continued to fall [69][70][74]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - In July, the core CPI in the United States reached a six - month high, and retail sales achieved stable growth. The Fed's Daly hinted at a possible policy easing. In the overseas bond market, the bond markets in China and Japan declined, while most emerging markets rose. The spread between 10Y US and Chinese treasury bonds widened [81][82][84]. 3.5 Major Asset Classes - The CSI 300 index strengthened, closing at 4202.4 points on August 15, 2025, a 2.4% increase compared to August 8. This week, Shanghai gold slightly strengthened, while the Nanhua Pig Index and Shanghai gold weakened. The performance of major asset classes this week was: CSI 1000 > CSI 300 > Shanghai copper > Convertible bonds > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > Crude oil > US dollar > Chinese bonds > Rebar > Shanghai gold > Pigs [85]. 3.6 Policy Review - On August 15, the People's Bank of China released the "2025 Second - Quarter China Monetary Policy Implementation Report", elaborating on the implementation effects of the moderately loose monetary policy in the first half of the year. On August 12, nine departments including the Ministry of Finance issued the "Implementation Plan for the Loan Interest Subsidy Policy for Service - Industry Business Entities", and three departments including the Ministry of Finance issued the "Implementation Plan for the Personal Consumption Loan Interest Subsidy Policy". Also on August 12, the "Sino - US Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement" was released, announcing a 90 - day suspension of the 24% tariff on each other's goods [88][90][92].