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【申万固收|深度】存款准备金制度改革去向何方——【货币政策知识点】深度研究之二
申万宏源研究· 2025-06-18 01:38
Historical Evolution of Deposit Reserve System - The deposit reserve system originated in the early 18th century in the UK, evolving from spontaneous interbank clearing needs to a legal risk buffer mechanism in the early 19th century in the US [5][21] - In China, the system was officially established in 1984 when the People's Bank of China began exercising central bank functions, with significant reforms occurring in 1998 to enhance the payment and clearing functions of reserve deposits [5][10] - Since 2015, China's reserve requirements have been assessed using an average method, providing important liquidity management buffers for banks [5][10] International Comparisons and Practices - Internationally, central banks like the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have adopted various reserve management practices, including accepting cash reserves and implementing tiered reserve requirements [13][47] - The experience of developed countries shows a trend of lower legal reserve requirements and higher excess reserves compared to China, which currently operates under a framework of structural liquidity shortage [8][13] Future Directions of Deposit Reserve System Reform - Conditions for breaking the 5% experience lower limit for reserve requirements are gradually maturing, with necessary institutional arrangements in place to support the transition [6][14] - The shift from quantity-based monetary policy to price-based policy is a prerequisite for relaxing the legal reserve requirement system, indicating a potential future direction for reform [6][14] Regulatory Functions and Macro-Prudential Management - The deposit reserve system has evolved to include differential reserve requirements and macro-prudential assessments, enhancing the ability to manage systemic financial risks [5][34] - The introduction of the macro-prudential assessment framework in 2016 marked a significant shift in focus from narrow credit growth to broader credit metrics, integrating various financial indicators into the regulatory framework [34][37] Implications for the Bond Market - If the reform of the reserve requirement system is implemented, it may lead to short-term benefits for the bond market, including increased liquidity and potential for larger fund releases during rate cuts [14] - However, the long-term impact on the bond market may be neutral, as the transition to price-based control could diminish the influence of reserve adjustments on market dynamics [14]
用好用足一揽子金融政策
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 02:28
货币政策作为宏观调控的主要政策工具,对经济运行具有重要影响。央行发布的10项措施,既有向全市 场注入"活水"的总量政策,也有为企业、居民降成本的价格政策,还有定向支持科创、消费、普惠领域 的结构政策。总量政策方面,完善存款准备金制度,降低存款准备金率,可以向市场释放更大的流动 性。价格政策方面,下调政策利率、结构性货币政策工具利率、个人住房公积金贷款利率,有利于带动 社会综合融资成本稳中有降。结构政策方面,一系列举措旨在完善现有结构性货币政策工具,并创新推 出新的政策工具,提升金融支持实体经济的强度、适配性和精准性。 南方日报评论员 央行发布3类10项措施、金融监管总局推出8项增量措施、证监会打出稳市"组合拳"……5月7日,国新办 举行新闻发布会,三大金融部门主要负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"情况。三大股指当 天集体高开,其中金融、房地产等板块涨幅居前,市场对未来充满信心。 金融是现代经济的核心。保持经济平稳健康发展,一定要把金融搞好。一季度,全国GDP同比增长 5.4%,经济呈现向好态势,社会信心持续提振。同时也要看到,我国经济持续回升向好的基础还需要 进一步稳固,国内需求不足、一些企业经营困 ...
不一样的降准降息!央行“十箭齐发”,重磅解读→
21世纪经济报道· 2025-05-07 07:46
作 者丨唐婧 编 辑丨杨希 5月7日上午9时,国新办举行新闻发布会,中国人民银行行长潘功胜、金融监管总局局长李云 泽、中国证监会主席吴清介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。 潘功胜在会上正式宣布,降低存款准备金率0 . 5个百分点,预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万 亿元;完善存款准备金制度,阶段性将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率从目前的 5%调降为0%。 潘功胜还称,下调政策利率0 . 1个百分点,即公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率从目前的1 . 5%调 降至1 . 4%,预计将带动贷款市场报价利率(LPR)同步下行约0 . 1个百分点。此外,下调结构 性货币政策工具利率0 . 2 5个百分点,降低个人住房公积金贷款利率0 . 2 5个百分点。 本次降准降息的一大背景是,4月中国采购经理指数(P M I)再次回到临界点以下。4月 3 0 日 , 国 家 统 计 局 服 务 业 调 查 中 心 和 中 国 物 流 与 采 购 联 合 会 发 布 的 数 据 显 示 , 4 月 份 , 制造业采购经理指数为4 9 . 0 %,比上月下降1 . 5个百分点,回落至临界点以下;非制造业 商务活动指数 ...
央行发布10项政策大礼包:降准降息+5000亿元养老消费贷款
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-07 04:34
2、完善存款准备金制度,阶段性将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率从目前的5%调降为 0%。 3、下调政策利率0.1个百分点,即公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率从目前的1.5%调降至1.4%,预计将带 动贷款市场报价利率(LPR)同步下行约0.1个百分点。 4、下调结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点,包括:各类专项结构性工具利率、支农支小再贷款利 率,都从目前的1.75%降至1.5%,这些工具利率是中央银行向商业银行提供再贷款资金的利率。抵押补 充贷款(PSL)利率从目前的2.25%降至2%。抵押补充贷款是由中央银行向政策性银行提供资金的一个 工具。 5、降低个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点,五年期以上首套房利率由2.85%降至2.6%,其他期限利 率同步调整。 5月7日上午,国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会,中国人民银行行长潘功胜介绍"一揽子金融政策支持 稳市场稳预期"有关情况,宣布推出三大类共十项具体政策措施。 潘功胜表示,人民银行将加大宏观调控强度,实施好适度宽松的货币政策。具体措施包括: 1、降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点,预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元。 8、增加支农支小再贷款额度3 ...
央行稳经济大招!降准降息齐发,公积金贷款利率同步下调
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-05-07 03:52
5月7日,中国人民银行行长潘功胜在国新办新闻发布会上连发多个重磅消息。 其中,关于降准,潘功胜宣布降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点,预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿 元;完善存款准备金制度,阶段性将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率,从目前的5%调降 至0%。 关于降息,下调政策利率0.1个百分点,即公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率从目前的1.5%调降至1.4%,预 计将带动贷款市场报价利率(LPR)同步下行约0.1个百分点。 本次降息是积极贯彻落实中央政治局会议要求的体现。4月25日,中央政治局会议要求"加紧实施更加积 极有为的宏观政策,用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策""适时降准降息,保持流动性 充裕,加力支持实体经济"。 市场权威专家认为,此举充分体现了适度宽松的货币政策立场,是支持稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预 期的有力举措。 提供长期流动性超1万亿 "适时降准降息"是政府工作报告对于货币政策的要求,央行也多次表示"择机降准降息"。由此,市场对 降准降息何时落地颇为关注。 值得注意的是,此次降准分为两部分:一部分是针对大型银行和中型银行降准0.5个百分点,可向市场 提供长期流动性超过1万 ...
重磅利好!央行,“十箭”齐发!
券商中国· 2025-05-07 01:25
Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a comprehensive set of monetary policy measures to stabilize the market and expectations, following the Central Political Bureau's meeting on April 25, aimed at promoting a moderately loose monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Quantity-based Policies - The first category of policies focuses on quantity measures, primarily through reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts to enhance long-term liquidity supply, with specific actions including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the RRR, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [2]. - The PBOC will also adjust the RRR for auto finance and financial leasing companies from 5% to 0% temporarily [3]. Group 2: Price-based Policies - The second category includes price measures, such as a 0.1 percentage point reduction in the policy interest rate, lowering the seven-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [4]. - Structural monetary policy tool rates will be reduced by 0.25 percentage points, including a decrease in the re-lending rate for agriculture and small enterprises from 1.75% to 1.5%, and the mortgage supplementary loan (PSL) rate from 2.25% to 2% [4]. - The personal housing provident fund loan rate will also be lowered by 0.25 percentage points, with the five-year and above first home loan rate decreasing from 2.85% to 2.6% [4]. Group 3: Structural Policies - The third category aims to enhance existing structural monetary policy tools and innovate new ones to support technological innovation, expand consumption, and promote inclusive finance. Specific measures include increasing the re-lending quota for technological innovation and technological transformation from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan [5]. - A new 500 billion yuan "service consumption and elderly care re-lending" will be established to encourage banks to increase credit support for service consumption and elderly care [6]. - The re-lending quota for agriculture and small enterprises will be increased by 300 billion yuan, with a concurrent reduction in the re-lending rate to support banks in expanding loans to agricultural small and private enterprises [6]. - The optimization of two monetary policy tools supporting the capital market will merge the 500 billion yuan swap convenience for securities, funds, and insurance companies with the 300 billion yuan stock repurchase increase re-lending, resulting in a total quota of 800 billion yuan [6]. - A risk-sharing tool for technological innovation bonds will be created, allowing the central bank to provide low-cost re-lending funds to purchase these bonds, supporting low-cost, long-term financing for technology innovation enterprises and equity investment institutions [6]. Implementation - The ten main policy measures across the three categories will be gradually disclosed and implemented on the PBOC's website [7].