Inflation Data - The US August CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, exceeding the previous value of 2.7% and market expectations of 2.84%[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, compared to a previous increase of 0.2% and market expectations of 0.3%[2] - Core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year, matching the previous value and exceeding market expectations of 3.05%[2] Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate in the US rose from 4.2% to 4.3%, reaching a nearly four-year high[8] - Initial jobless claims surged to the highest level in nearly four years as of the week ending September 6[8] - The Michigan University one-year inflation expectation increased by 0.3 percentage points to 4.8% in August, while the five-year expectation rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5%[3] Market Implications - The rise in inflation has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of three cuts within the year significantly rising[2] - Despite the overall CPI exceeding expectations, core CPI growth was in line with market predictions, indicating potential inflation persistence[3] - The combination of high inflation, slowing economic growth, and rising unemployment signals a risk of stagflation in the US economy[8]

随着美联储9月议息会议的临近，机构普遍认为，考虑到劳动力市场疲软的背景，相对可控的物价压力 可能不足以改变降息重启的共识，但进一步宽松之路依然充满不确定性。 周五公布的数据显示，美国7月通胀压力小幅上升。与此同时，消费者支出创4个月来最大增幅。 随着更高关税的影响渗透到经济中，通货膨胀在夏季逐渐上升。不过价格尚没有像外界担忧的那样上 涨，这也让有关关税影响的争论仍在持续中。 不少华尔街经济学家预计，随着商业成本上升和此前积压库存减少，通货膨胀将进一步上升。近期，不 少零售商和汽车制造商都警告说，关税正在提高他们的成本，这些成本最终可能部分甚至全部转嫁给消 费者。 标普全球上周更新的数据显示，8月美国制造业PMI以三年多以来最快的速度扩张，同时也加剧了持续 的通胀压力。进口关税的提升推高了销售价格综合指数，达到三年来的高位。报告还显示，服务业企业 价格指数也升至三年来最高。 物价压力进一步上升 美国经济分析局（BEA）称，7月个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数环比上涨0.2%，较上月减缓0.1个百分 点，主要受汽油和其他能源商品的成本下降1.7%影响，同比增长2.6%，与6月持平。 不考虑波动较大的食品和能源，核心 ...

Core Insights - The core PCE price index in the U.S. rose to a year-on-year increase of 2.9% in July, indicating a slight uptick in inflationary pressures [1][2] - Consumer spending saw its largest increase in four months, accelerating to 0.5% in July, primarily driven by durable goods purchases [2][3] - The labor market remains weak, with average monthly job growth significantly lower than previous years, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [3][5] Inflation Trends - The PCE price index increased by 0.2% month-on-month in July, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, remaining stable compared to June [2] - Core PCE, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, the highest since February [2] - Service costs rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflation in the service sector, which is less affected by tariffs [2][4] Economic Outlook - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in September will consider the July PCE data alongside the non-farm payroll and CPI reports [4] - Rising tariffs are expected to increase business costs, potentially leading to higher consumer prices, as indicated by recent warnings from retailers and automakers [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is currently at 84%, reflecting a growing consensus within the Federal Reserve, despite concerns about inflation [5][6]

Inflation Data - The US June CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 2.4%[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, up from 0.1% in the previous month[5] - Core CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly above the previous value of 2.8%[2] Market Expectations - Market expectations for June CPI were 2.64% year-on-year and 0.25% month-on-month, which were closely met[5] - Core CPI expectations were 2.95% year-on-year and 0.23% month-on-month, also aligning with actual results[2] Contributing Factors - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in transportation services, household furniture, and energy prices[5] - Energy prices saw a month-on-month increase of 1.9%, reflecting volatility due to geopolitical factors[5] Economic Indicators - The US manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded to 49%, indicating a halt in the continuous decline observed earlier this year[6] - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%, suggesting a stable labor market despite some weakness in service sector employment[6] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence has improved significantly, with the one-year inflation expectation from the University of Michigan dropping by 1.6 percentage points to 5%[2] - The five-year inflation expectation also decreased to 4%, indicating reduced concerns about inflation among consumers[2] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the inflationary impact of tariffs will become more pronounced in the coming months as businesses deplete their inventories[7] - Risks related to tariffs and geopolitical tensions remain high, with potential for renewed price increases if trade conditions worsen[7]