[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 8 Jul 2025 决定性催化剂：解析"大而美法案"对欧美 A&D 板块的冲击与机遇 A Decisive Catalyst: Analyzing the "One Big, Beautiful Bill" and its Shockwaves Across US and European A&D 杨斌 Bin Yang bin.yang@htisec.com 热点速评 Flash Analysis [(Table_summary] Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件 2025 年 7 月 4 日，特朗普总统正式签署了标志性的"大而美法案"（One Big, Beautiful Bill）。此举通过 预算和解（budget reconciliation）这一特殊的立法程序，绕开了国会漫长的常规辩论与潜在阻碍，以简 单多数票的方式为美国国防部批准了高达 1500 亿美元的额外专项资金。该法案的通过，标志着白宫和国 会旨在解决美国国防工业基础（DIB）长期投资不足和军事现代化进程迟缓问题 ...

"大而美"税收与支出法案 核心条款旨在永久化上一届特朗普政府于2017年12月通过的《减税与就业法案》，将企业税税率锁定在 21%的历史低位，同时将遗产税豁免额永久提高至1500万美元，并为年收入超过50万美元的群体维持 37%的个税税率。这种精心设计的税收结构，被特朗普包装成"刺激投资创造就业"的经济良方。 小费收入免税： 该条款是特朗普2024年竞选承诺之一。条款表面惠及600万服务业者，实则使年收入40万美元的餐厅老 板平均每年减税2.7万美元，而服务生实际获益不足800美元。 国防预算增至新高： 增至8950亿美元的历史新高，其中200亿美元直接投向特朗普力推的"金穹"导弹防御系统。可谓"砍穷人 救命钱，给军火商贴金"的畸形"民主政治"逻辑。 对不公平外国税收的执行措施： 授权财政部长对实施"数字服务税"或"全球最低税率"的国家加征惩罚性关税。该条款被视为特朗普政府 的"核选项"或"报复税"。 然而，"涓滴效应"早已被现实证伪：美国国会预算办公室的数据显示，顶层10%家庭的资产将增加 2%，而底层10%的人群因福利削减资产将减少4%，贫富差距会加速扩大至近百年来的最高水平。 实施严苛审查制度： 医疗补 ...

在5月19日-20日，短短两天内特朗普连出3记"重拳"，其中1个与中国有关，另外2个将影响全球，引发了国内外的连锁反应。 休斯顿港更是"现身说法"，该港早在2024年7月就与中国签订了8台起重机的采购合同，总价约3亿美元。 若叠加特朗普提议的100%关税，加上此前25%的关税和可能的"暂缓期"后恢复的额外税费，最终成本将飙升至270%，导致港口扩建计划直接瘫痪。 更讽刺的是，美国一边打压中国起重机，一边却拿不出替代方案。 洛杉矶港代表指出，美国国会若真想复兴制造业，应该先通过税收优惠刺激本土生产，而非用关税"堵死"唯一可行的采购渠道。 特朗普政府近期最受争议的举动，莫过于计划对中国制造的港口起重机征收100%关税，并对中国船舶收取高额港口费。 这一政策在5月19日的听证会上遭到美国港口和航运业的集体反对，甚至被业内人士称为"自杀式操作"。 美国港务局协会（AAPA）直言，美国本土自上世纪80年代起便没有起重机生产企业，全球仅存的日本三井、欧洲科尼和利勃海尔三家公司产能有限，根本 无法满足需求。 航运商会则警告，这类政策与中美正在进行的贸易谈判目标完全矛盾，最终只会推高美国物流成本，让消费者为商品涨价买单。 业 ...

Core Points - The "Golden Dome" missile defense system is proposed by President Trump, aiming to create the "best missile defense system in history" with nearly 100% protection against various missile threats [1][3][4] - The estimated cost of the project is approximately $175 billion, with a goal to be operational within three years [2][29] - The system intends to integrate existing missile defense systems and develop new technologies, including space-based interceptors and advanced sensors [14][21] Group 1: Project Overview - The "Golden Dome" project aims to construct a global, multi-layered missile defense system to intercept threats from various sources [5][13] - It is designed to counter six main types of missile threats, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, hypersonic weapons, cruise missiles, and orbital bombardment systems [6][12][22] Group 2: Technical Aspects - The proposed defense system will consist of three layers: a sensing layer for detection, a command and control network for decision-making, and a strike layer for interception [13][14] - The system is expected to require the deployment of approximately 1,000 satellites for effective monitoring and tracking of incoming missiles [14][27] Group 3: Historical Context - The "Golden Dome" plan is compared to the "Star Wars" initiative from the Reagan era, which aimed to develop a comprehensive missile defense system but was ultimately terminated due to high costs and technological challenges [19][21] - Similarities include the strategic goal of creating a layered defense system and the reliance on space-based technologies [24][25] Group 4: Industry Implications - The project has garnered interest from major defense contractors like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, who are developing solutions to support the initiative [29][30] - The potential long-term costs of the "Golden Dome" system could exceed $500 billion, raising concerns about its financial viability [24][30] Group 5: Expert Opinions - Experts express skepticism regarding the feasibility of achieving near 100% interception rates, citing physical laws and the complexity of intercepting advanced missile technologies [31][32] - The American Physical Society has raised concerns about the practicality of the proposed technologies, suggesting that the challenges may lead to a fate similar to that of the "Star Wars" program [31][32]

再看减税政策。特朗普2017年的减税措施被延长到所有收入群体，最高税率维持37%，遗产税免税额涨到每人1500万美元。这相当于给美国富人发了个大 红包，但对中低收入家庭可不太友好。法案同时削减了医疗补助和食品券支出，要求受益人每月工作80小时才能领取福利。这让我想起2018年美国税改 后，贫富差距拉大导致的社会矛盾。现在法案里的"小费免税""加班收入免税"抵扣，看似普惠，实则门槛不低——比如小费抵扣要求年收入低于20万美 元，这明摆着是在讨好蓝领选民，但实际能拿到的人可能不多。 各位老铁好，我是你们的老朋友帮主郑重。在财经圈摸爬滚打20年，我始终坚信：政策的风吹草动里藏着真金白银的机会，但只有穿透表象才能抓住本 质。今天咱们来聊聊美国参议院刚通过的"大而美"法案，这可是未来十年影响全球经济的关键棋子。 先说最重磅的债务上限。这次法案直接把美国国债上限提高5万亿美元，相当于给信用卡提额到41万亿。这让我想起2011年标普下调美国信用评级时，美 股一周暴跌15%。不过这次市场反应有点反常——美债收益率没怎么动，美元反而跌了。为啥？因为法案里藏着3.8万亿美元的财政赤字窟窿，投资者都 在赌美联储下半年得降息救市。对 ...

Group 1 - Russian President Putin will participate in the BRICS summit in July via video link, while Foreign Minister Lavrov will attend in person [1] - The BRICS summit will take place from July 6 to 7 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, with Brazil being the rotating chair and a signatory to the International Criminal Court (ICC) Rome Statute [3] - The ICC issued an arrest warrant for Putin in March 2023 due to "war crimes" related to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [3] Group 2 - The situation on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield remains tense, with Ukrainian forces successfully regaining some areas in Sumy region [3] - Ukrainian President Zelensky discussed potential arms purchases from the U.S. and collaboration on drone production during a meeting with President Trump [3] - Turkish President Erdogan met with Trump during the NATO summit, discussing the possibility of Putin attending peace talks in Turkey [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the growing concerns of U.S. officials regarding China's rapid advancements in space military technology, which they perceive as a strategic threat to U.S. national security [1][4]. Summary by Sections U.S. Concerns about China's Space Capabilities - U.S. Space Command Chief Stephen Whiting expressed anxiety over China's "astonishing" speed in developing space military technology, which he claims poses a "strategic threat" to the U.S. [1] - Whiting emphasized the importance of U.S.-Australia cooperation in enhancing space capabilities, particularly in monitoring regions closer to China [1][4]. Specific Threats Identified - Whiting outlined three main concerns regarding China's space capabilities: 1. China's establishment of a space-based target identification system aimed at locating and tracking U.S. and allied forces in the Indo-Pacific region [3]. 2. The rapid deployment of a comprehensive suite of anti-space weapon systems, including network attacks, satellite communication disruptions, and high-energy lasers [3]. 3. The integration of space advantages into traditional military branches, enhancing the lethality and precision of the Chinese military [3]. U.S. Military Responses and Reports - The U.S. military has repeatedly raised alarms about China's space threats, with a recent report indicating that China possesses over 510 satellites with intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities [4]. - In the past decade, China has launched 875 satellites, with 260 launched in 2024 alone, including 67 ISR-capable satellites [4]. - Whiting has previously stated that the perceived space threat from China is becoming increasingly "real and urgent," prompting the U.S. to prepare its defenses, including the deployment of the "Iron Dome" missile defense system [4][5]. International Reactions - In response to U.S. claims, a Chinese defense spokesperson criticized the U.S. for escalating military presence in space and accused it of violating international treaties, thereby exacerbating the arms race in outer space [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, which is leading to a depletion of Israel's missile interception inventory [1] - The United States is responding to this situation by reinforcing Israel's defense capabilities, specifically by deploying warships equipped with ballistic missile interception capabilities to the region [1]

据英国金融时报：洛克希德马丁(LMT.N)已向英国政府提出协助建设新导弹防御系统的请求。 ...

据以色列媒体：以色列导弹防御系统每天的成本约为2.85亿美元。 ...