2025 年 11 月 26 日 食品饮料 食饮年度投资策略：稳基调黎明将至， 抱主线向阳而生 白酒：周期底部渐明，关注左侧布局机会 当前板块处于低预期、低持仓、低估值状态，近两个季度白酒报表快 速出清，行业供需矛盾缓解，政商务消费已经大幅下降，居民消费有 望逐步复苏，行业基本面持续低于预期的尾部风险不大。复盘历史， 我们有理由相信经济周期和饮酒政策带来的波动是暂时的，白酒商业 模式仍然优异，一旦经济预期有所好转，板块估值有望快速修复。展 望 2026 年，"反内卷"等政策下通胀有望温和回升，有利于白酒行业 逐步企稳复苏，建议加大对白酒板块关注，标的上以茅五泸汾为主。 啤酒：中高端大单品势能延续，成本维持低位 啤酒板块 26 年仍将以结构性行情为主，其中具备大单品成长逻辑的 啤酒公司、受益竞争对手调整的公司相对更加具备投资机会。整体啤 酒板块公司的盈利水平仍处于向上提升趋势中，主要驱动力来源于 8-10 元价格带产品的扩容以及各家精益管理后费效比的提升。 乳制品：布局 26 年原奶周期反转，关注乳制品产业链报表利润 弹性 从需求端看，25 年乳制品品类表现分化，常温液奶拖累乳制品整体 需求，低温鲜奶、奶酪等品 ...

Core Points - The event themed "Classic National Goods, Trendy Products Renewed" showcases over 100 time-honored brands and specialty products from 19 provinces and regions in China, running from September 25 to September 28 [1][3] - The exhibition area exceeds 3,000 square meters, featuring innovations in food and beverages, traditional Chinese medicine, and arts and crafts, allowing visitors to experience regional specialties [3] - The event includes a special "Old Brand Dopamine Zone" themed around the 24 solar terms, highlighting the fusion of traditional craftsmanship with modern life [3][4] Industry Insights - Nearly 80% of the participating companies are time-honored brands, including 29 national and 40 local brands, indicating a vibrant innovation and development within the old brand sector [3] - The event is part of Beijing's efforts to establish itself as an international consumption center, utilizing a dual approach of "exhibition + market" to modernize the image of old brands [4] - The East District's Business Bureau reports significant enhancement in brand value since the implementation of a three-year action plan for time-honored brands in 2023, through platform building and environmental optimization [3]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the liquor industry, particularly focusing on the performance and strategies of major companies like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye during the recent sugar and liquor fair [1][2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Feedback from the Sugar and Liquor Fair**: Overall feedback from the fair was in line with expectations, with some channel operations exceeding expectations. Most liquor companies emphasized price stability in their channel operations [1]. 2. **Valuation Changes**: Post-Spring Festival, the market's perception of real estate stability has led to an increase in Guizhou Moutai's valuation from 18x to 22x, with many other stocks also experiencing valuation upgrades [2]. 3. **Seasonal Performance**: Despite being the off-season, banquet consumption has continued to show growth similar to the Spring Festival, with business consumption also receiving positive feedback due to a more favorable operating environment for private enterprises [3]. 4. **Confidence in Price Recovery**: There is a growing confidence in price recovery, although it remains untested during the off-season. The overall sentiment is that the liquor sector is not facing a downturn but is on an upward trend [4][7]. 5. **Foreign Investment Interest**: Foreign investors are likely to increase their allocation in liquor stocks, particularly Guizhou Moutai, due to strong earnings growth and attractive dividend yields. In contrast, domestic investors are more cautious due to previous significant gains in other sectors [5][6]. 6. **Inventory and Pricing Strategies**: Most liquor companies are maintaining stable prices and avoiding aggressive discounting to ensure natural sales growth. This strategy is crucial for maintaining market share in the mid-to-high price segments [14][15]. 7. **Channel Operations**: Wuliangye is undergoing significant channel reforms, focusing on reducing traditional channel volumes while enhancing direct sales and new market channels. The success of these reforms depends heavily on management execution [19][20][21]. 8. **Sales and Payment Trends**: The first quarter's sales performance is expected to show a mid-single-digit growth rate, with most companies nearing completion of their payment collection for the quarter [18][39]. 9. **Consumer Behavior Insights**: There is a notable recovery in consumer demand, particularly in banquet and business settings, although the overall market remains cautious about confirming a definitive recovery point [10][11][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Regional Performance Variations**: The performance of liquor sales varies significantly by region, with southern regions showing stronger recovery compared to northern areas [27]. - **Emerging Trends in Consumer Preferences**: There is a shift towards premium products, with some companies reporting substantial growth in high-end liquor sales [10][11]. - **Future Outlook**: The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of gradual recovery in consumer demand and potential for further valuation increases in the liquor sector [6][12][13]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the liquor industry.