2026年车市销量增长将承压。 1月9日，中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会（乘联分会）发布的数据显示，2025年12月全国乘 用车市场零售226.1万辆，同比下降14%，环比增长1.6%。2025年以来累计零售2374.4万辆，同比增长 3.8%；全年乘用车厂商批发2955.4万辆，同比增长8.8%。 乘联分会秘书长崔东树指出，去年第四季度销量走平，是中国汽车市场历年来都罕见的走势，这体现出 了"两新政策"对车市的强烈影响。在政策的推动下，消费者在第四季度前积极购车，而各地补贴力度在 10月收缩或暂停，明显体现在了第四季度的销量数据上。 此外，崔东树介绍，去年第四季度，汽车厂家也更为理性，并没有对经销商施加过多销售压力。同时， 新车批量上市，叠加"反内卷"工作推进遏制了无序降价，12月新能源促销保持在10%左右，没有出现明 显的以价换量走势，这也在一定程度上促成了第四季度车市走平。 新能源汽车方面，新能源汽车免征购置税政策到期，对销量带来了明显的拉动效果。 数据显示，2025年12月新能源乘用车零售133.7万辆，同比增长2.6%，环比增长1.2%；12月新能源车在 国内总体乘用车的零售渗透率59.1% ...

乘联分会数据显示，12月新能源乘用车生产达到156.0万辆，同比增长7.6%，环比下降11.2%；1-12月累 计生产1,534.8万辆，增长26.1%。12月新能源乘用车批发销量达到156.3万辆，同比增长3.3%，环比下降 8.4%；1-12月累计批发1,531.9万辆，增长25.2%。12月常规燃油乘用车批发销量达到123万辆，同比降 21%，环比下降5%；1-12月累计批发1,423万辆，下降5%。 ...

Domestic News - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on December 8 to analyze and study the economic work for 2026, emphasizing the need for a stable yet progressive approach, quality improvement, and efficiency enhancement in economic policies [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of domestic demand, innovation-driven growth, reform, and high-quality development, as well as promoting green transformation and ensuring people's livelihoods [1] - In the first 11 months, China's goods trade import and export value reached 41.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, with exports growing by 6.2% and imports by 0.2% [2] Automotive Industry - The retail sales revenue of new energy passenger vehicles increased by 19.1% year-on-year in the first 11 months, reflecting a strong market activity [3] - In November, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.321 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% and a month-on-month increase of 3.0% [3] - The retail sales of conventional fuel passenger vehicles, however, saw a decline of 22% year-on-year in November [3] International Trade - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that economic and trade cooperation should continue to be the "ballast" and "driving force" in China-U.S. relations, emphasizing mutual benefit and respect [2] - China's rare earth exports in November totaled 5,493.9 tons, with a cumulative export of 58,193.1 tons in the first 11 months, marking an 11.7% year-on-year increase [2]

Core Insights - The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in November reached 1.321 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.2% and a month-on-month increase of 3.0% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to November, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles totaled 11.472 million units, reflecting a growth of 19.6% [1] - In contrast, the retail sales of conventional fuel passenger vehicles in November were 900,000 units, showing a year-on-year decline of 22% and a month-on-month decline of 7% [1] - For the period from January to November, the cumulative retail sales of conventional fuel passenger vehicles amounted to 10.01 million units, indicating a decrease of 6% [1]

Core Insights - In October, China's passenger car retail sales reached approximately 2.242 million units, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.8% and a month-on-month decline of 0.1% [1] - The cumulative retail sales for the year reached about 19.25 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The October car market performance was relatively mild, not reaching the previously expected "hot" scenario, primarily driven by the replacement purchase group [1] - The tightening of "old-for-new" subsidy policies in some regions led to differentiated sales growth across areas, preventing a sustained increase in October sales [1] Group 2: Brand Performance - In October, domestic brands achieved retail sales of approximately 1.55 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4%, capturing a domestic retail market share of 68.7%, up 3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The cumulative market share of domestic brands for the first ten months of the year was 65%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] - Major domestic groups like SAIC, Dongfeng, Changan, Chery, and BAIC saw a combined year-on-year sales growth of 17% in October [2] Group 3: Export Growth - In October, China's automobile exports reached 828,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 42%, with total exports for the first ten months reaching approximately 6.51 million units, up 23% year-on-year [2] - Specific companies like BYD, Chery, and Geely reported significant export figures, with BYD exporting about 80,000 units in October [3] Group 4: New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) - NEVs remain a crucial growth driver, with wholesale sales of NEVs in October reaching approximately 1.621 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18.5% [4] - The penetration rate of NEVs reached 55.3% in October, with domestic brand NEVs achieving a penetration rate of 70.1% [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - Starting January 1, 2024, the purchase tax for NEVs will shift from full exemption to a 50% reduction, prompting consumers to feel a stronger urgency to purchase vehicles by year-end [5] - The upcoming months are expected to see increased enthusiasm for vehicle purchases in rural areas, particularly for NEVs and mid-to-low-end fuel vehicles [6]

Core Insights - In October 2025, the domestic narrow passenger car market retail sales reached 2.248 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to October 2025, total sales reached 19.256 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.0% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - October 2025 saw a slight year-on-year decline in retail sales of passenger cars due to a high base from the previous year, with a decrease of 0.9% [3] - New energy vehicles (NEVs) experienced a year-on-year growth of 7.3% in October, while conventional fuel vehicles saw a decline of 10% [3] - The cumulative growth rate of passenger cars has shown a gradual deceleration in the second half of the year [3] Group 2: Manufacturer Sales Rankings - BYD ranked first in retail sales from January to October 2025 with 2.838 million units sold, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year, holding a market share of 14.7% [9] - Geely followed with 2.141 million units sold, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 56.2% and a market share of 11.1% [9] - In October 2025, BYD sold 295,871 units, down 14.8% month-on-month and 31.4% year-on-year, capturing a market share of 13.2% [8] Group 3: New Energy Vehicle Sales - In October 2025, BYD led the NEV wholesale sales with 436,856 units, a month-on-month increase of 11.1% but a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%, holding a market share of 27.0% [10] - Geely's NEV sales reached 177,882 units in October, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 63.6% [10] - From January to October 2025, BYD also led NEV sales with 3.656 million units, a year-on-year growth of 12.9% and a market share of 30.3% [11]