腾讯控股（00700.HK) | 投资评级： 增持 | 主要观点： | | --- | --- | | 2025-11-25 |  财务表现 | | 报告日期： | | 近52周股价走势 | 华通证券国际 | | --- | | 研究部 | | 宏观组 | | SFC: AAK004 | | Email: research@waton.co | 腾讯控股：业绩持续走强，AI投入占比上升 财务表现 业务发展 盈利预测 预计2025年营收为726,283百万元，营业利润220,183百万元，对 应2025-2027年PE为23.29、20.34、18.05倍。 风险提示 作者 | 百万人民币 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 660,257 | 726,283 | 791,648 | 854,980 | | （+/-)% | 8.41 | 10.00 | 9.00 | 8.00 | | 营业利润 | 200,097 | 220,183 | 239,979 | 259,131 | | （+/-)% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to HKD 790, indicating a potential upside of 26.7% from the last closing price [4][55]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 performance showed robust growth driven by AI efficiency and ecosystem expansion, with revenue reaching RMB 193 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5% [1][6]. - Non-IFRS net profit for Q3 2025 was RMB 70.6 billion, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth and a 12% quarter-on-quarter growth, indicating improved operational efficiency and profit quality [1][6]. - The gaming segment showed strong performance, with domestic game revenue of RMB 42.8 billion, up 15% year-on-year, and international game revenue of RMB 20.8 billion, up 43% year-on-year [2][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue was RMB 193 billion, with a gross profit of RMB 108.8 billion, resulting in a gross margin of 56%, up from the previous year [1][6][10]. - The increase in gross profit was attributed to high-quality advertising inventory and improved content structure in gaming [10]. Gaming Business - The value-added services revenue reached RMB 95.9 billion, a 16% year-on-year increase, with strong contributions from social networking and gaming [2][8]. - Key titles like "Delta Force" and "Honor of Kings" maintained strong daily active users (DAU), with "Honor of Kings" achieving a historic high of 139 million DAU [2][8]. Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue grew by 21% year-on-year to RMB 35.8 billion, driven by the expansion of core ecosystem scenarios like video accounts and mini-programs [3][9]. - AI-driven improvements in eCPM and automated ad placement through AIM+ contributed significantly to revenue growth [27][29]. Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue reached RMB 58.2 billion, a 10% year-on-year increase, supported by strong online and offline payment activities [3][44]. - The company maintained a low bad debt ratio in its consumer credit business, reflecting its strong risk management capabilities [44][46]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued high-quality growth in advertising and gaming, driven by the recovery of advertising budgets and the ongoing expansion of the ecosystem [40][55]. - The integration of AI in advertising is expected to enhance efficiency and contribute to a new phase of sustainable growth [40][55].

Core Insights - Tencent Holdings reported a record high revenue of 192.87 billion yuan for Q3 2025, marking a 15% year-on-year increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 63.13 billion yuan, up 19% [2][3] - The company’s total compensation cost for Q3 2025 was 32.4 billion yuan, with an average monthly salary per employee of 93,900 yuan, reflecting a 3.6% increase from the previous year [8][9] Revenue Breakdown - Tencent's domestic gaming revenue reached 42.8 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a 15% increase, driven by new game releases and growth from established titles [4] - International gaming revenue surged to 20.8 billion yuan, a 43% increase, attributed to the performance of Supercell games and new PC and console game releases [4] - Social network revenue grew by 5% to 32.3 billion yuan, supported by video live streaming and music subscription services [4] - Marketing services revenue increased by 21% to 36.2 billion yuan, driven by higher ad exposure and improved user engagement [4] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue rose by 10% to 58.2 billion yuan, benefiting from increased commercial payment activities and cloud service demand [5] Profitability Metrics - Gross profit for Q3 2025 increased by 22% to 108.8 billion yuan, with the gross margin improving from 53% to 56% [5] - The company maintained strong cash flow, with net cash of 102.4 billion yuan as of the end of Q3 2025, up from 74.6 billion yuan at the end of H1 2025 [6] Employee Compensation - Tencent's workforce grew to 115,000 employees by the end of Q3 2025, up from 108,800 a year earlier [7] - The average annual salary per employee exceeded 1 million yuan, reflecting the company's competitive compensation strategy [9]

Core Viewpoint - The traditional search engine model, particularly that of Baidu, is facing significant challenges due to the shift in user behavior towards content platforms and AI-driven search solutions [1][2][4]. Group 1: User Behavior Shift - Users are increasingly relying on content platforms like Xiaohongshu and Douyin for information, moving away from traditional search engines [1][2]. - The search behavior is becoming decentralized, with users finding information through recommendations rather than direct searches [2][3]. - Xiaohongshu has over 350 million monthly active users, while Douyin's user base exceeds 1 billion, indicating a strong shift in user engagement [3]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Baidu's traditional dominance in the search engine market is being eroded by competitors like Tencent and ByteDance, which are enhancing their search functionalities through integrated services [2][4]. - AI-driven search solutions are emerging as a significant threat, with companies like Google and Microsoft leading the charge in AI search capabilities [4][5]. - Baidu's AI search monthly active users stand at 32.2 million, but it ranks behind competitors in terms of user engagement and product appeal [4][11]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Baidu's online advertising revenue has declined significantly, with a 15% year-over-year drop in Q2, reducing its share of core revenue from 71.95% to 61.7% [8][11]. - The company is under pressure to innovate and adapt its business model to retain market share and revenue streams [11][14]. - Despite the challenges, Baidu is investing heavily in AI, with a notable increase in AI-generated content in search results, rising from 35% to 64% in just a few months [8]. Group 4: Future Directions - Baidu is focusing on integrating AI capabilities into its search functions to enhance user experience and maintain relevance in the market [8][14]. - The company is exploring new advertising models that leverage AI to improve effectiveness and user engagement [13][14]. - The overall search industry is facing challenges related to user privacy, answer credibility, and high operational costs, which will require innovative solutions [14].

Core Insights - WeChat has integrated deep search and multimodal capabilities into its search function, allowing users to ask questions via photos, links, or content from public accounts [1] - The company has enhanced its AI search capabilities by incorporating large models like Mix Yuan T1 and DeepSeekR1, improving the intelligence and accuracy of search results [1] - A new "deep thinking" mode has been introduced, enabling users to upload images or files for more precise and intelligent search outcomes [1] - The new features are currently in a gray testing phase, with unaffected users still able to utilize the original search functions [1] Company Developments - WeChat is continuously optimizing its AI search capabilities to meet user demand for question-based searches [1] - The introduction of "AI search" and "Ask Yuan Bao" options provides users with a broader range of intelligent search choices [1] User Experience Enhancements - Users can access the new features by clicking on the search box at the top of the WeChat dialogue, which now includes the "deep thinking" mode [1] - The search experience has been further upgraded to enhance user interaction and satisfaction [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent update of WeChat's search interface introduces deep search and multimodal capabilities, allowing users to ask questions via photo, link files, or content from public accounts, enhancing the AI search functionality [1] Group 1 - WeChat's search function is currently undergoing a gray testing phase, with users not yet included in the test still able to access the original search features [1]

Core Insights - WeChat is continuously optimizing its AI search capabilities through recent updates to the search interface [1] - The new features include deep search and multimodal capabilities, allowing users to ask questions via photos, links, or content from public accounts [1] - The WeChat team has stated that these features are currently in a gray testing phase, with users not yet included in the testing still able to use the original search functions [1] Group 1 - WeChat search interface has been updated to enhance AI search capabilities [1] - New functionalities include the ability to ask questions using photos, links, or public account content [1] - The features are in gray testing, with some users still using the original search functions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's Q2 2025 performance shows robust growth across its core business segments, particularly in gaming, advertising, and financial technology, despite rising administrative costs and fluctuations in joint venture earnings [19][20]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Tencent's stock price rose over 600 HKD post-earnings announcement, closing at 590 HKD, with a market capitalization of 5.4 trillion HKD [1]. - Year-to-date, Tencent's stock has increased by 42.72%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index [1]. - Q2 2025 revenue from value-added services reached 913.68 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.92% [5]. - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew by 10.10% year-on-year to 555.36 billion RMB, driven by consumer loan services and commercial payment activities [5]. Group 2: Gaming Segment - Domestic gaming revenue in Q2 2025 grew by 17% year-on-year to 404 billion RMB, supported by new game releases and existing titles [3]. - International gaming revenue surged by 35% year-on-year to 188 billion RMB, driven by Supercell's games and PUBG MOBILE [4]. Group 3: Advertising and Marketing - Marketing services revenue increased by 19.72% year-on-year to 358.62 billion RMB, benefiting from AI-driven advertising platform improvements [6]. - Video account marketing services saw a revenue increase of approximately 50% year-on-year, attributed to higher traffic and transaction activity [6][7]. - WeChat search revenue grew by about 60% year-on-year, enhanced by AI technology improving ad relevance [7]. Group 4: Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for the value-added services segment returned to over 60%, reaching 60.4%, a year-on-year increase of 3.39 percentage points [9][10]. - Overall gross margin for Q2 2025 rose by 3.60 percentage points year-on-year to 56.92% [10]. Group 5: Cost Management - Sales and marketing expenses increased by only 2.77% year-on-year, indicating effective management of marketing expenditures [11]. - Administrative expenses rose by 16.11% year-on-year, primarily due to increased R&D and employee costs related to AI initiatives [11]. Group 6: AI and Future Outlook - Management is exploring monetization avenues for AI, emphasizing its contribution to existing business growth [12]. - Capital expenditures for Q2 2025 were 191.07 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 118.89% [14]. - The company is focused on tracking AI's impact on business efficiency and growth across various sectors [17][18].

Core Insights - Tencent reported its Q2 financial results, achieving multiple historical highs, with total revenue reaching 184.5 billion RMB, a 15% year-on-year increase, and net profit growing by 17% to 55.6 billion RMB, marking the fastest revenue growth in four years and a near-record gross margin of 57% [1][2][29] Revenue Breakdown - The gaming segment remains the largest contributor, generating 59.2 billion RMB, a 22% increase year-on-year, with domestic game revenue at 40.4 billion RMB (up 17%) and international game revenue at 18.8 billion RMB (up 35%) [5][9] - Advertising revenue also saw significant growth, increasing by 20% to 35.8 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 57% [17][20] AI Integration - AI has become a focal point for Tencent, with substantial investments leading to improved advertising efficiency and revenue generation [11][16] - The company has integrated AI into various services, including video ads and customer service, enhancing user engagement and operational efficiency [25][28] Market Performance - Tencent's stock price reached a peak of 600 HKD per share, the highest in four years, reflecting strong market confidence [3][4] - The company is positioned as a leader in the FPS gaming market, dominating both mobile and PC segments [9][11] Future Outlook - Tencent's ongoing investments in AI and gaming are expected to yield further growth, with the potential for increased advertising revenue through improved ad loading rates [19][20] - The integration of AI into gaming is anticipated to enhance gameplay experiences and operational efficiencies, solidifying Tencent's competitive edge in the industry [26][28]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings has exceeded market expectations with its operating performance, driven by accelerated benefits from AI investments [2][9]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Tencent achieved revenue of approximately 184.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of nearly 15%, and a net profit of about 55.6 billion yuan, up nearly 17% [2][3]. - For the first half of 2025, Tencent's revenue reached 364.5 billion yuan, with a net profit of approximately 103.4 billion yuan, both setting historical highs and marking the first time net profit surpassed 100 billion yuan in the mid-year results [4][6]. Business Segments - Tencent's revenue from its three main business segments in Q2 2025 was as follows: Value-Added Services (913.68 billion yuan, +16%), Marketing Services (357.62 billion yuan, +20%), and Financial Technology & Enterprise Services (555.36 billion yuan, +10%) [6]. - The growth in Value-Added Services was driven by popular games and new releases, while Marketing Services benefited from improvements in advertising platforms and increased demand from advertisers [6][9]. Market Performance - Tencent's stock price has shown strong performance, rising over 40% since the beginning of the year, with a recent opening price of 600 HKD per share, marking a return to this level for the first time in over four years [2][12]. R&D and Investments - The company has significantly increased its R&D investment, reaching 24.3 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a 17% year-on-year increase, and capital expenditures of 19.1 billion yuan, up 119%, primarily for AI infrastructure [9][10]. International Expansion - Tencent's international market influence is expanding, with a 35% year-on-year increase in international game revenue in Q2 2025, reaching 18.8 billion yuan, and plans for further investment in data centers in the Middle East and Japan [11].