以初心铸底气 以创新赴新程 燕梳研究院2026年新年献词 当2026年的第一缕阳光照亮金融大地，我们站在"十四五"收官与新征程启幕的历史交汇点，回望保险业 这一年的铿锵足迹。这一年，我们告别规模崇拜的浮躁，拥抱质量优先的笃定；破解转型路上的迷雾， 筑牢服务实体的根基；在政策护航中稳健前行，在创新探索中勇立潮头。每一步跋涉都凝聚着行业人的 坚守，每一次突破都标注着高质量发展的刻度。 这一年，监管"定盘星"精准发力，为行业发展筑牢安全屏障。预定利率动态调整机制平稳落地，三次科 学校准让产品回归风险保障本源，摆脱"利差依赖"的行业更显韧性；非车险"报行合一"铿锵落地， 47.4%的财险市场告别"高费用、低费率"的内耗，迈向合规经营的良性循环；保险资金权益投资比例优 化、长期投资试点扩容至2220亿元，"耐心资本"的底色愈发鲜明，37万亿元险资正成为资本市场的"压 舱石"与实体经济的"滋养剂"。从万能险新规遏制短期化乱象，到中介监管净化市场生态，一道道监管 红线织就安全网，一次次政策创新激活新动能，让行业在规范中焕发持久活力。 这一年，市场"成绩单" 亮点纷呈，在提质增效中书写答卷。五大上市险企前三季度33.5%的净 ...

周期非银团队联合展望 - 2026 年度策略报告汇报会议 20251201 摘要 化工行业处于历史低谷，但供给端产能扩张放缓，政策端控制产能， 2026 年或迎来反弹机会，关注集中度高、开工率高的细分领域，以及 新材料领域如半导体材料。 上市险企需转型浮动收益型产品，以应对低利率环境下的利差损风险， 并提高权益资产配置比例，分红险转型需平衡业务结构、销售能力、预 定利率和长期可持续性。 行业风险出清已进入后端阶段。未来，各个赛道中的优质企业将成为关注重点， 这些企业能否利用竞争优势实现从"活下去"到"再出发"至关重要。 2026 年房地产市场预计小幅改善，销售面积降幅收窄至-5%，新开工 和竣工分别下降 14%和 10%，但仍面临压力，政策支持或将出台以维 持 GDP 增速，优质房企有望获得运作空间。 房地产企业财务风险显著下降，行业风险出清进入后端阶段，未来关注 各赛道中具备核心竞争力的优质企业，如金茂、建发、绿城等，它们在 核心城市拥有土地储备和综合业务能力。 商业地产仍具增长潜力，品牌购物中心表现突出，增速高于全国社零总 额，华润、新城、龙湖、大悦城等公司值得关注，开发商逐渐增加商业 管理业务收入占比。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance demand for Chinese enterprises going abroad is increasing, but the domestic insurance industry faces challenges such as insufficient supply and weak service capabilities [1][4]. Group 1: New Insurance Demands - The insurance needs of Chinese enterprises going abroad are diverse, including cargo insurance, product liability insurance, and various project-related insurances [4]. - The rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle (NEV) exports presents new opportunities for insurance services, with NEV exports reaching 1.758 million units from January to September, a year-on-year increase of 89.4% [7]. - Domestic insurance companies are focusing on overseas markets, particularly in developing countries, to seek new growth avenues amid fierce competition in the domestic auto insurance market [6]. Group 2: Challenges in Providing Insurance - Domestic insurance companies face challenges such as data difficulties, compliance barriers, insufficient service network, and special risk management capabilities when providing insurance for NEV exports [8]. - The lack of understanding of local driving environments and repair costs complicates accurate pricing for NEV insurance [8]. - Compliance with diverse regulatory requirements in different countries adds pressure on domestic insurers when designing coverage terms [8]. Group 3: Innovative Solutions - To address the challenges, domestic insurers are exploring partnerships with local insurance companies to facilitate insurance issuance and claims processing in overseas markets [9][10]. - The Shanghai International Reinsurance Registration Trading Center is being utilized to enhance the efficiency of cross-border insurance transactions [11]. Group 4: Evolving Risk Management Needs - As NEV exports increase, there is a growing demand for insurance solutions related to battery lifecycle management, especially with the upcoming EU battery passport regulation [13]. - Insurance companies are collaborating with professional institutions to integrate battery health monitoring services into the insurance process [14]. Group 5: International Engineering Insurance - The demand for international engineering insurance services is also rising, with China's overseas contracting business reaching a revenue of 876.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.2% [18]. - New types of risks, such as geopolitical risks and cybersecurity threats, are emerging, prompting companies to seek tailored insurance solutions [18][20]. Group 6: Industry Challenges - The domestic insurance industry faces challenges such as insufficient product supply, lack of pricing capabilities, and inadequate service capabilities in supporting enterprises going abroad [21]. - There is a need for improved data platforms, global networks, and innovative reinsurance solutions to empower insurance companies in their international endeavors [22].

Summary of China Taiping's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Taiping - **Industry**: Insurance Key Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Taiping's net profit growth exceeded 60%, and net assets increased by 31% compared to the beginning of the year [2][3] - In Q3 2025, Taiping Life, a major subsidiary, reported a net profit increase of 370% for the quarter, with a year-to-date net profit growth also exceeding 60% [3] Strategic Focus and Transformation - The company successfully transitioned to a dividend insurance model, achieving a target where at least 50% of new single premiums come from this product by 2025 [2][7] - The focus for 2025 is on transformation rather than rapid growth, laying the groundwork for a strong start in 2026 [2][5] - The company is shifting towards a diversified product strategy, emphasizing traditional insurance 2.0 in the latter half of 2025 [2][5] Investment Strategy - In Q3 2025, China Taiping adjusted its investment strategy, increasing its allocation to A-shares, with 30% of new premium funds invested in this market [4][9] - The investment yield for the first half of 2025 was influenced by a conservative approach, but the company is now focusing on growth stocks in the A-share market [9][10] Tax and Regulatory Environment - The high effective tax rate in 2024 was due to losses under old accounting standards, leading to significant deferred tax assets [8] - The company expects a more accurate and lower effective tax rate after transitioning to new accounting standards in 2026 [8] Pension Ecosystem Development - China Taiping has made significant progress in building a pension ecosystem, with high occupancy rates in projects like Shanghai Wutong and Chengdu Furong [8] - The company has completed 5 to 6 major asset projects and is expanding through a light asset model to over seventy institutions [8] Competitive Positioning - The management team is highly market-oriented and committed to maintaining competitiveness through strategic execution and product diversification [6][7] - The company aims to balance between traditional and dividend insurance products while maintaining a competitive edge in the market [7] Future Outlook - China Taiping anticipates continued growth in net profit, value, and net assets, focusing on a stable investment strategy amid market uncertainties [10][11] - The company is optimistic about its stock price performance, believing it is undervalued compared to peers [17] Miscellaneous - The comprehensive cost ratio for Taiping Property & Casualty Insurance was 96.9% in the first half of 2025, marking a historical high [14] - The company is actively exploring new market opportunities while consolidating its existing positions in both domestic and international markets [14] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting China Taiping's financial performance, strategic initiatives, investment strategies, and future outlook.

Core Viewpoint - The report from First Shanghai recommends a "buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328) with a target price of HKD 23.3, indicating a potential upside of 21.7% from the current price, driven by the growth in non-auto insurance as a key engine for premium growth in the context of China's economic transformation and increasing social risk protection needs [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved insurance service revenue of CNY 385.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with auto insurance revenue at CNY 227.6 billion (up 3.7%) and non-auto insurance revenue at CNY 158.3 billion (up 9.3%) [1] - The net profit for the same period reached CNY 40.3 billion, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 50.5% [1] - Total investment income for the first three quarters was CNY 35.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33%, with an annualized total investment return rate of 5.4%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Non-Auto Insurance Growth - Non-auto insurance original premium income reached CNY 223.06 billion in the first three quarters, accounting for 50.3% of total premiums, surpassing auto insurance [2] - A new regulatory policy effective November 1, 2025, aims to manage rates in the non-auto insurance sector, which is expected to enhance underwriting profit margins and improve the comprehensive cost ratio for non-auto insurance [2] - The company targets to maintain a comprehensive cost ratio of below 96% for auto insurance and below 99% for non-auto insurance in 2025 [2] Group 3: Internationalization Strategy - The company has initiated an internationalization strategy aimed at significantly increasing overseas business within five years, aligning with the trend of Chinese enterprises going global and the internationalization of the RMB [3] - The strategy focuses on servicing Chinese products and enterprises, particularly in the areas of new energy vehicles and overseas infrastructure construction [3] - The company has successfully launched related businesses in Hong Kong and Thailand, with plans to expand into Europe and Southeast Asia, leveraging its experience in new energy vehicle insurance to create a competitive advantage [3]

Core Insights - The chairman of China Pacific Insurance, Fu Fan, stated that the sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China are projected to reach 12.87 million units in 2024, with the market size of the entire industry chain approaching 2.8 trillion yuan [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - In 2024, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China is expected to be 12.87 million units, indicating significant growth in the sector [1] - The overall market size for the new energy vehicle industry chain is anticipated to be nearly 2.8 trillion yuan, reflecting the expanding economic impact of this sector [1] Group 2: Technological Challenges - Fu Fan highlighted that the technological transformation in the new energy vehicle sector brings forth increasing risk management challenges, particularly in areas such as intelligent driving and battery safety [1] - Collaboration among automotive, technology, and insurance sectors is essential to explore these new challenges and ensure that technology can be safely implemented [1] Group 3: Export and Global Strategy - The export volume of new energy vehicles from China is projected to exceed 70% in 2024, indicating a strong international presence [1] - To support the global expansion of the industry, it is crucial to establish a comprehensive service network that addresses shortcomings in overseas insurance, service guarantees, and financial support [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the insurance industry can significantly support technological innovation by providing long-term capital and financing solutions tailored to the lifecycle of tech enterprises [1][2] - The average liability duration of insurance capital and the average R&D cycle of tech companies in China are both between 10 to 15 years, indicating a strong alignment for investment opportunities [1] - Insurance capital has already directly invested thousands of billions in technology-related enterprises, highlighting the industry's commitment to supporting innovation [1] Group 2 - The insurance industry is actively adapting to the integration of technology and industry, with over 40 million new energy vehicles currently insured [2] - A memorandum of cooperation between the insurance and automotive industries aims to enhance vehicle safety, improve pricing models, and boost competitiveness [2] - The use of technology in insurance services is being expanded, including the establishment of a second-hand car information service platform to address information asymmetry in transactions [2] Group 3 - The insurance sector is encouraged to leverage technology to improve service efficiency in areas such as agricultural insurance, disaster insurance, and health insurance [2] - Advanced technologies like satellites, drones, and risk models are being utilized to enhance underwriting, claims processing, and risk reduction services [2] - The application of wearable devices and AI in health and pension insurance is aimed at providing proactive health management suggestions to policyholders [2]

Core Insights - The insurance industry is encouraged to embrace the integration of technology and industry, as stated by Zhou Liang, Deputy Director of the National Financial Supervision Administration [1] - The insurance sector has insured over 40 million new energy vehicles, indicating significant market penetration and relevance in the evolving automotive landscape [1] - The industry is analyzing the claims data of 137 high-claim-rate vehicle models, which aids automotive companies in optimizing their designs [1]

Core Points - China Pacific Insurance (CPIC) showcased its commitment to green finance at the 2025 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference held in Shanghai, emphasizing its role in creating a sustainable future through insurance [3][12][40] - CPIC has been recognized for its ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) efforts, achieving an upgrade in its MSCI rating from "AA" to "AAA," making it the first insurance institution in mainland China to receive this highest rating [6][40] - The conference theme focused on global action, innovation, and sustainable growth, with CPIC participating for the second consecutive year and presenting its achievements in sustainable practices [12][40] Group 1: Conference Participation - The 2025 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference took place from October 16 to 18, 2023, in Shanghai, gathering global leaders to explore new paths for sustainable development [2][11] - CPIC set up an exhibition hall at the conference, showcasing its global layout, green practices, and social welfare initiatives [12][19] Group 2: ESG Achievements - CPIC has integrated green sustainable development into its core operations, aiming to build a leading insurance financial service group with market influence and international competitiveness [8][40] - The company has provided green insurance coverage amounting to 147 trillion yuan and has launched over 30 green insurance products, including a carbon emissions cost index insurance for the shipping industry [22][19] Group 3: Social Initiatives - CPIC's social welfare initiatives focus on vulnerable groups, particularly in areas like cognitive impairment and autism, with programs designed to support these communities [27][19] - The company has engaged in various interactive activities during the conference, attracting over 5,000 participants to promote awareness of its ESG practices [29][32]

Core Viewpoint - China Pacific Insurance (CPIC) is taking significant steps to enhance its international presence and address capital structure pressures through the issuance of zero-coupon convertible bonds in Hong Kong, following a similar move by Ping An [5][10][15]. Financing Strategy - CPIC announced the issuance of HKD 15.6 billion in zero-coupon convertible bonds, maturing in 2030, which can be converted into H-shares [5]. - The funds raised will primarily support the insurance core business and the implementation of three strategic initiatives: "Great Health," "AI+," and internationalization [6]. - The issuance of convertible bonds is seen as a strategic move to supplement capital and accelerate internationalization, especially as CPIC's net assets have decreased by 3.3% since the beginning of the year [6][12]. Industry Context - The issuance of convertible bonds has become a common practice among large insurance companies, balancing the need for continuous dividends with increasing solvency pressures [7]. - CPIC is the second mainland insurance company to utilize this financing method in Hong Kong, following Ping An's USD 3.5 billion issuance last year, indicating a potential trend in the industry [8][17]. Internationalization Efforts - CPIC has lagged behind peers like Ping An and China Life in international expansion, with a total QDII quota of USD 2.627 billion, slightly above Xinhua's USD 2.4 billion, despite having a larger asset base [12]. - Recent initiatives include the approval of a tokenized USD money market fund and the launch of electric vehicle insurance in Thailand, marking a significant acceleration in overseas business development [14]. Regulatory Environment - The issuance of USD convertible bonds allows CPIC to maintain a lower dilution pressure on equity and create a funding pool for overseas operations without the complexities of capital repatriation [15]. - The current regulatory framework provides flexibility for funds raised through convertible bonds to remain offshore, reducing friction costs associated with cross-border capital flows [16]. Future Implications - The trend of using convertible bonds for financing may lead to more insurance companies following suit, prompting regulatory scrutiny regarding capital management and fund usage [17]. - The potential for increased participation from other insurers could transform this financing method from an isolated innovation into a collective industry trend [17].