在复旦大学教授封进看来，当前养老保险依赖财政补贴的空间日益受限，叠加少子化、老龄化加剧的人 口结构变化，创新筹资模式势在必行。 社会保障体系还可在调节收入分配、应对技术变革和健全制度设计等方面发挥更加积极的作用。武汉大 学教授张奇林认为，社会保障作为重要的调节工具，需要改革存在"逆向调节"的项目，比如推动医保筹 资标准与居民收入挂钩，避免加重中低收入群体负担。"既要推动人工智能等技术在养老、残疾照护等 社会保障服务中的应用，也要通过教育培训解决新技术带来的就业结构性矛盾。"张奇林说，应尽快总 结提升在"十四五"时期经试点已相对成熟的制度，形成全国统一方案并推广实施，加快健全多层次社会 保障体系。 中国式现代化离不开健全的社会保障体系，走向共同富裕更需社会保障体系的坚实支撑。党的二十届四 中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出，"十五 五"时期，社会保障制度更加优化更可持续。如何持续完善社会保障体系？哪些领域是关键突破口？ 与经济增长同频共振 社会保障作为普惠性、基础性、兜底性制度安排，在我国经济快速发展和社会长期稳定中发挥着不可或 缺的作用。我国已建成世界上规模最大的 ...

Core Insights - The current pension system in China faces dual challenges of "getting old before getting rich" and "being unprepared for aging" as the country enters a longevity era [1][2] - The core issue of the pension problem is identified as "where the money comes from," highlighting the low participation rate and high account vacancy in the third pillar of the pension system [1] Summary by Categories Pension System Structure - China has established a three-pillar pension system consisting of basic pension insurance (first pillar), enterprise annuities/professional annuities (second pillar), and personal pensions (third pillar) [1] - The low participation rate and high account vacancy in the third pillar are significant issues that need to be addressed [1] Financial Risks for the Elderly - The two major financial risks faced by the elderly are medical expenses and disability care [2] - Although pilot programs for long-term care insurance (LTCI) have been initiated in some cities, overall coverage and utilization rates remain low [2] Policy Recommendations - It is suggested to explore allowing individuals to access part of their personal pension early under strict regulation, which could enhance the system's attractiveness [1] - There is a call for accelerating the nationwide coordination of LTCI and improving the integration of basic medical insurance with commercial health insurance and LTCI [2] - The development of the pension industry should seek a balance between "high-end" services and "universal accessibility," ensuring that middle and low-income groups can achieve sustainable pension payment capabilities [2] - Policy design must consider both efficiency and equity, particularly focusing on the needs of rural and vulnerable populations [2]

Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 was 4.1 billion CNY, a decrease of 4.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in retail business in Yunnan and risk management in distribution [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the first nine months of 2025 was 269 million CNY, down 8.17% year-on-year, with credit and asset impairment losses impacting nearly 15 million CNY [2] - Total cash dividends for 2025 amounted to nearly 300 million CNY, with a share buyback of 150 million CNY, of which 135 million CNY was financed through a special loan [2] Group 2: Business Segment Performance - Retail business, which includes retail pharmaceuticals (over 55% of retail revenue), saw a significant decline in Yunnan, while other regions maintained positive growth [3] - Distribution business faced a substantial drop in revenue due to risk management measures following the Kunming Minsheng Pharmaceutical incident, affecting various distribution categories [4] - The Chinese medicine industrial segment is focusing on formula granules, with nearly 660 products meeting local standards and around 400 products progressing towards national standards [4] - The healthcare business, although small, is growing rapidly, with the first centralized elderly care center achieving profitability and plans for a second center expected to open by the end of 2026 [4] Group 3: Store Network and Adjustments - The number of stores decreased from 11,498 at the beginning of the year to 11,230 by September 30, 2025, with 430 closures and 288 openings/migrations [5] - Yunnan has 5,521 stores (49% of total), with ongoing adjustments to enhance store efficiency and expand non-pharmaceutical categories [5] - By the end of 2025, the company plans to complete adjustments in 1,000 stores, focusing on health-related products and professional categories [5] Group 4: Strategic Insights and Future Plans - The company aims to optimize internal operations in response to external policy changes and macroeconomic factors affecting the retail environment [6] - The introduction of long-term care insurance presents significant opportunities for the healthcare business, with existing centers positioned to accommodate this demand [9] - Future investments will focus on regions like Southwest China and Hainan, with plans to enhance store density and service capabilities [10] - The company plans to promote community and home-based elderly care services, aligning with the preference of over 95% of seniors for home care [11]

Core Insights - Home-based elderly care remains the mainstream choice for seniors, and optimizing this service is crucial for public welfare [1][2] - The elderly population aged 60 and above in China has exceeded 310 million, projected to surpass 400 million by around 2035, indicating a growing demand for home-based care services [1] - The current elderly care service system is steadily advancing, with a focus on enhancing home and community-based services supported by institutional care and medical integration [1] Group 1: Current State of Home-based Elderly Care - Home-based elderly care services primarily focus on daily living assistance, with insufficient integration of medical care, despite a significant portion of seniors suffering from chronic diseases [2] - There are challenges in collaboration among medical, community, and elderly care institutions, leading to a lack of synergy in service delivery [2] - Issues such as an unbalanced talent structure, inadequate user payment capacity, and an imperfect evaluation system hinder the development of home-based elderly care services [2] Group 2: Policy and Infrastructure Support - High-quality development of home-based elderly care services requires supportive policies, including the use of local government bonds for infrastructure development and tax incentives for care institutions [2] - The establishment of a robust professional nursing workforce is essential, necessitating improvements in salary, career pathways, and a systematic skills certification framework to attract talent to the elderly care sector [2] Group 3: Innovative Service Models - Encouraging social participation in home-based elderly care through diverse service models, such as "community + property + elderly care" and "elderly dining services," is vital to meet the varied needs of seniors [3] - Leveraging technology to create community-based elderly care information platforms and developing "smart" elderly care scenarios can enhance service efficiency and quality [3] - Long-term care insurance, initiated in 2016, has benefited over 2.25 million disabled individuals, reducing their financial burden and improving their quality of life, highlighting the importance of sustainable funding and fairness in the system [3]

Industry Overview - The adult incontinence products industry in China is at the end of the introduction phase and the beginning of the explosive growth phase, with a penetration rate of approximately 8%-10%, indicating significant growth potential compared to international markets [1] - Long-term care insurance policies are expected to accelerate market expansion, with projections suggesting that the penetration rate could reach 50% within the next decade [1] Company Insights - Reliable Co., the leading domestic brand in the adult incontinence market, is adjusting its channel strategy to strengthen B2B operations and online user engagement, while launching a new brand, "Anurse," to seize government procurement opportunities related to long-term care insurance [1] - The pricing landscape for adult diapers in China is chaotic, with the presence of ultra-low-end products; price increases will depend on the advancement of long-term care insurance and enhanced market regulation [1] - In contrast to the first brands in Europe, the U.S., and Japan, which hold over 50% market share, the concentration trend in the Chinese market is becoming more pronounced, with Reliable Co. positioned as the top local brand [1] - The company is optimizing costs through measures such as smart factories and raw material substitution, with future growth drivers identified as the implementation of long-term care insurance policies, brand recognition enhancement, and international expansion [1]

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The adult incontinence products industry in China is at the end of the introduction period and the beginning of the explosion period, with a penetration rate of about 8%-10%, and there is still significant room for growth compared to international markets [19]. - The long - term care insurance (both TOG and TOC) is expected to promote the industry. The TOG part may lead to a penetration rate of up to 50% within 10 years, and the TOC part shows an increasing demand for brand - building [20][22]. - Reliable Co., Ltd. has made strategic adjustments in product and channel planning, aiming to become the absolute number one in the Chinese adult incontinence field [22]. - The price of adult incontinence products in China is in a state of chaos, and the price is expected to increase with the advancement of long - term care insurance and strengthened market supervision [23][24]. - The industry concentration is increasing, and domestic brands like Reliable have the potential to replicate the success of overseas leading brands [25]. - Although the company's business has been under short - term pressure, it has optimized profitability through cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and is expected to achieve significant growth in the next 3 years [26]. 3. Summary by Questions Question 1: Growth level and industry ceiling of the adult incontinence products industry - The industry in China is at the end of the introduction period and the beginning of the explosion period, with a penetration rate of 8% - 10%, while in Europe, America, and Japan, the penetration rates are 60% and 80% respectively [19]. - The potential of the medium - and mild - incontinence population has not been fully explored [19]. Question 2: The promoting effect of long - term care insurance on the industry - TOG: Referring to Japan's experience, China's long - term care insurance is expected to lead to a penetration rate of up to 50% within 10 years after national promotion [20]. - TOC: The current buyers are mainly relatives of the elderly, with a high proportion of online channels. There is an increasing demand for brand - building and user - service enhancement [22]. Question 3: Product and channel planning in the next three years - Channels: Shifted from dealer - and store - based sales to TOB business, entered hospitals and elderly care institutions, and established a user - operation department for online business [22]. - Brands: Launched the Anhu shi brand targeting cost - effective consumers, and strengthened the positions of Reliable and Xishoubao [22]. - TOG business: Seize government procurement opportunities including long - term care insurance [22]. - Supply chain: Invested in companies like Guangxi Hanggang three years ago to form a closed - loop supply chain [22]. Question 4: Price level and price - increasing potential - The price band in China is chaotic, including high - end, mid - high - end, mid - low - end, and ultra - low - end products. About 210 million pieces of sub - standard products were exposed in 315 this year, accounting for nearly 30% of the market [23]. - In Japan, there are only high - end and mid - high - end products. The price in China is expected to increase with the advancement of long - term care insurance and strengthened market supervision [24]. Question 5: Current competitive landscape and brand concentration - In Europe, America, and Japan, the market share of the first - ranked brand exceeds 50%. Reliable is the leading domestic brand and plans to expand overseas [25]. - The industry concentration is increasing, and domestic brands have the potential to follow the path of overseas leading brands [25]. Question 6: Company's profitability and future growth points - The company's business has been under short - term pressure due to factors such as a decrease in the elderly population and birth rate [26]. - Profitability has been optimized through cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and the optimization of the mother - and - baby segment [26]. - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in the next 3 years with the implementation of long - term care insurance policies, enhanced brand recognition, and overseas expansion [26].

Market Overview - The adult incontinence products industry in China is at the end of the introduction phase and the beginning of the explosive growth phase, with a penetration rate of approximately 8%-10% [1] - Compared to international markets, where penetration rates reach 60% in Europe and the US, and 80% in Japan, there is significant growth potential in China [1] - The primary user group currently consists of individuals with severe incontinence, but there is untapped potential among those with moderate and mild incontinence [1] Policy Impact - The introduction of long-term care insurance (TOG and TOC) is expected to accelerate market expansion, with a projected penetration rate of 50% within 10 years following nationwide promotion after 2024 [1][2] - Historical data from Japan shows that after the implementation of care insurance, the penetration rate of adult diapers increased from 10% in 1990 to 80% in 2005 [1] Product and Channel Strategy - The company has shifted its sales strategy from relying on distributors and physical stores to focusing on B2B business, targeting hospitals and elderly care institutions, with over 10,000 institutions engaged [2] - Online channels are increasingly important, with a new brand targeting cost-conscious consumers launched on platforms like Pinduoduo, showing promising sales growth [2] - The company is enhancing user engagement through improved service offerings and targeted marketing strategies [2] Pricing and Market Dynamics - The adult diaper market in China is fragmented into four price segments: high-end, mid-high, mid-low, and ultra-low, with the ultra-low segment facing quality issues [3] - Approximately 21 billion low-quality diapers, accounting for nearly 30% of the market, have been identified, indicating a need for regulatory improvements [3] - Price increases are anticipated due to the push for long-term care insurance and stricter market regulations [3] Competitive Landscape - In mature markets like the US and Japan, leading brands hold over 50% market share, while the leading domestic brand in China, Reliable, is positioned to compete internationally [4] - The industry is experiencing a trend towards increased concentration, with local brands expected to replicate the success of overseas leaders [4] Financial Performance and Growth Outlook - The company faces short-term challenges due to demographic shifts, including a declining birth rate and aging population [6] - Cost optimization measures, such as the use of smart factories and alternative raw materials, are being implemented to enhance profitability [6] - Future growth is anticipated from the rollout of long-term care insurance, increased brand recognition, and international expansion [6]

Core Insights - Long-term care insurance (LTCI) is expected to stimulate demand for nursing services, medical equipment, and rehabilitation devices, thereby driving economic growth and creating new economic opportunities [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Development - The LTCI pilot program has covered 180 million people, with over 2.6 million disabled insured individuals receiving benefits, and total fund expenditures exceeding 80 billion yuan [1]. - The "home care + assistive device service" model is anticipated to be promoted nationwide following the implementation of LTCI, presenting new development opportunities for related industries [2]. - The establishment of the first LTCI industrial park in Nantong is attracting service institutions, insurance companies, and assistive device R&D organizations, forming a complete care service industry chain [7]. Group 2: Assistive Devices and Services - Assistive device rental has become a popular policy among insured individuals in LTCI pilot areas, significantly alleviating the financial burden on families of disabled individuals [3]. - In Nantong, individuals can rent a multifunctional nursing bed for only 0.45 yuan per day, with an annual limit of 8,000 yuan, shared between the fund and individuals at an 80:20 ratio [3][4]. - The LTCI program has introduced a range of assistive devices, including electric nursing beds and multifunctional wheelchairs, which have benefited over 2,000 disabled families in recent years [4][6]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The LTCI's implementation is expected to enhance payment capabilities, directly driving the development of products related to the care of disabled and elderly individuals, such as electric wheelchairs and nursing beds [7]. - The introduction of smart assistive devices, including intelligent nursing robots and home care beds, is gaining traction, with increased interest from companies in developing these technologies [10][12]. - The international standard for elderly care robots, led by China, aims to provide benchmarks for the design, manufacturing, testing, and certification of various elderly care robot products [10].