沪铜早间小幅高开，但日内行情却略有走软，收盘微跌0.01%。最近宏观面指引有限，铜市供需面有支 撑，持续区间震荡，但周初社库增加，一定程度拖累铜价走势。 8月18日国内市场电解铜现货库存14.42万吨，较14日增1.18万吨。国内电解铜库存增加明显，其中各市 场均表现不同程度增幅；其中上海市场近期由于进口铜到货流入较多，且部分仓库出库量相对一般，库 存因此增加明显。 （文华综合） 最近国内铜精矿现货加工费呈现不断回升姿态，需求方认为市场还有抬升空间，但远期四季度的货物还 是维持 -40 左右左右的水平，矿端偏紧状态并未出现实质性的好转。冶炼端方面，后续仍显关注在原料 偏紧状态下冶炼厂开工率变化情况。 光大期货表示，铜价维系区间窄幅波动，一是近期宏观颇为反复，特朗普关税谈判明紧暗松，与各大经 济体的关税协议陆续达成，但与中国的关键谈判协议仍存不确定性；二是基本面方面，美精炼铜不加征 关税下市场对美铜后市看法依然有一定分歧，主要在于美铜超量累库下，可能迫使美铜持续偏弱，从而 导致库存重新外迁风险，进而冲击全球铜价。因此市场也可能先行消化淡季下基本面积累的矛盾 （LME和国内社会库存累库），价格可能维系偏弱走势；不 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand side is marginally weakening, with downstream purchasers making rigid - need purchases and buying at low prices. As the demand enters the off - season, the downstream's ability to absorb is not strong. The rebound of the US dollar index suppresses copper prices, but the copper ore smelting end is tight. The macro - environment presents a mix of long and short factors, leading to narrow fluctuations in the copper market. It is expected that the copper market will mainly oscillate at a high level, awaiting new market drivers [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper market opened low, then fluctuated and turned positive. Antofagasta offered a copper concentrate TC/RC of -$15 per ton to Chinese smelters this week, indicating a long - term expectation of loose supply in the copper ore segment. The US dollar index rebounded from a low this week, suppressing the upward trend of copper prices. As of May 23, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) in China was -$44.3 per dry ton, and the refining fee (RC) was -4.44 cents per pound. Although the TC/RC fees are still negative, the decline has significantly slowed. In April, the output of refined copper was 1.254 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9%, and the imported refined copper was 300,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.97%. Downstream buyers are cautious about high - priced copper. After the recent decline in copper prices, the downstream's enthusiasm for restocking has increased, but due to the approaching holiday and the consumption off - season, this enthusiasm is not sustainable [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The market opened low, fluctuated downward, and closed lower, at 78,400. The long positions of the top 20 were 115,017 lots, an increase of 1,825 lots; the short positions were 120,398 lots, an increase of 4,197 lots. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 130 yuan per ton, and in South China was 65 yuan per ton. On May 28, 2025, the LME official price was $9,633 per ton, and the spot premium was $49 per ton [3]. Supply Side - As of May 23, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was -$44.3 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was -4.44 cents per pound [4]. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 32,200 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons from the previous period. As of May 26, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 53,900 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 154,300 tons, a slight decrease of 43,000 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 179,700 short tons, an increase of 30,400 short tons from the previous period [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the overall industry investment ratings in the given report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US economy faces downward pressure as indicated by the significant decline in the Texas manufacturing index, leading to a weaker and volatile US dollar index [1][12]. - From late April to mid - May, treasury bond futures are expected to perform better than in the second half of April, and the strategy of buying on dips has increased cost - effectiveness [2][19]. - Steel prices are likely to continue to fluctuate in the short term, with the market being rational and cautious about administrative production cuts [3][22]. - For zinc, the medium - term supply - demand situation remains loose, and the logic of shorting on rallies is maintained, while attention should be paid to controlling positions due to potential impacts on the domestic manufacturing PMI from tariffs [4][45]. - Oil prices are fluctuating downward as the market awaits further clarification of OPEC+ policies [5][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Texas manufacturing index dropped to its lowest level since May 2020, indicating continued downward pressure on the US economy and a bearish outlook for the US dollar index in the short term [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Treasury has raised its borrowing estimates for the second and third quarters. Although the market has temporarily set aside concerns about long - term debt sustainability, the sustainability of the risk - preference repair needs further observation due to the emerging impact of tariffs [14][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank's deputy governor mentioned the potential for timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The market's core contradiction lies between the un - falsifiable expectation of loose monetary policy and the uncertainty of the implementation time of such policies. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying long - term treasury bond futures on dips [18][20]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Shanghai's major projects are accelerating. Steel prices are in a volatile pattern. The market is waiting for details of administrative production - control policies. It is recommended to view steel prices with a short - term oscillatory perspective and maintain a hedging mindset on rallies [21][23]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - In the East China market, coking coal prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Although there is some support for prices in the short term due to reduced supply and pre - holiday restocking demand, the medium - to long - term trend remains bearish [24][25]. 3.2.3 Non - ferrous Metal (Polysilicon) - After the price decline, attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Southwest China during the wet season and the silicon wafer production schedule from May to June. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contracts [28]. 3.2.4 Non - ferrous Metal (Industrial Silicon) - The operating rate of organic silicon monomers is expected to decline. The supply side may see marginal changes due to price drops. It is recommended to partially take profits on previous short positions and wait for clear signals before considering bottom - fishing [29]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - Some salt factories plan to reduce production, but the demand is not expected to exceed expectations. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy in the second quarter [30][31]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metal (Copper) - Macro factors have a relatively neutral short - term impact on copper prices, while the short - term fundamentals are strong, supporting copper prices and the premium. It is recommended to take a bullish approach and pay attention to the Shanghai copper inter - period positive spread strategy [34][35]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metal (Nickel) - It is recommended to wait for dips to buy nickel, pay attention to position management, and hedge beta risks due to potential macro - sentiment fluctuations [38][39]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metal (Lead) - The short - term bearish logic for lead is dominant. It is recommended to focus on shorting opportunities on rallies and take profit on the internal - external reverse spread [40][41]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metal (Zinc) - In the short term, zinc prices are supported, but the medium - term supply - demand situation remains loose. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies near the moving average and maintain a long - term internal - external positive spread strategy [42][45]. 3.2.10 Energy and Chemical (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - LPG prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to the impact of tariff policies and cost - profit squeezes [46][49]. 3.2.11 Energy and Chemical (Crude Oil) - Oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term as the market awaits OPEC+ policies [50][51]. 3.2.12 Energy and Chemical (Asphalt) - The fundamentals of asphalt are improving, but the impact on prices is limited due to relatively high inventory levels. It is recommended to wait and see [52][53]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemical (PTA) - PTA prices are expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish in the short term, but the rebound height will be restricted by the demand side in the long term [55][57]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemical (Caustic Soda) - After a short - term rebound, caustic soda prices weakened again, but the room for further decline is relatively limited [58][59]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemical (Pulp) - Pulp is expected to be in a weakly oscillatory pattern in the short term due to the large internal - external price gap and lack of significant positive news [60][61]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemical (PVC) - PVC is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term as the short - term macro - impact has subsided [62]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemical (Styrene) - Styrene prices are oscillating weakly recently. The supply - demand structure is expected to be negatively affected by reduced supply - side disturbances and weakening downstream demand [63][65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemical (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip industry shows a situation of both increasing supply and demand. Although there is no significant short - term contradiction, the supply pressure is increasing, and processing margins are under pressure [65][66]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemical (Soda Ash) - In the medium term, a bearish view on soda ash is maintained, while short - term attention should be paid to the impact of summer maintenance on the 09 contract [67]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemical (Float Glass) - Glass futures prices are expected to remain in a low - level range due to weak reality and lack of positive policies, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [69][70].