1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the lithium carbonate market, including futures data, spot data, basis and warehouse receipt data, and cost - profit analysis, aiming to help investors understand the market situation and potential investment opportunities [2][19][26][37] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Data - The price range of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is expected to be in a wide - range shock between 120,000 and 200,000 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 107.6% and a historical percentile of 95.7% over 3 years [2] - The main contract's closing price is 166,480 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2360 yuan (1.44%) and a weekly increase of 29,140 yuan (21.22%). The trading volume, open interest, and other indicators of the main contract and weighted index contract also showed significant changes [4] - The CME lithium hydroxide futures prices for different months in 2026 showed varying degrees of increase, and the LME lithium hydroxide futures also had corresponding trading data [14][17] Spot Data - In the lithium battery industry chain, various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery materials showed price changes. For example, the latest average price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 5400 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 575 yuan (11.92%) [19] - The price differences between different lithium products also changed. For example, the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 3500 yuan/ton, while the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide changed [22] Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis of the lithium carbonate main continuous contract and near - month contract showed seasonal characteristics. The basis of different brands of lithium carbonate also had corresponding quotes [28][29][30] - The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased by 330 to 38,525, and the warehouse receipts of different warehouses also changed [33] Cost - Profit - The production profits of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore and lithium hydroxide production profits by different methods showed different trends over time. The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate and the export profit of lithium hydroxide and import profit of lithium carbonate also had corresponding data [38][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. The report mainly provides various data related to lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide futures and spot markets. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range and Volatility**: The support level of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 120,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 110.1% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 96.0% [3]. - **Contract Performance**: The main contract's closing price is 137,340 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan (0.25%) daily but down 10,760 yuan (-7.27%) weekly. The trading volume is 295,231 lots, down 10,090 lots (-3.30%) daily and 324,311 lots (-52.35%) weekly. The open interest is 345,989 lots, up 1,918 lots (0.56%) daily but down 9,781 lots (-2.75%) weekly [5]. - **Spread Data**: The spreads between different contracts (e.g., LC2605 - LC2607, LC2605 - LC2609) show various daily and weekly changes [5]. - **CME and LME Futures**: CME's February 26th lithium hydroxide futures settlement price is 16.65, with different price and volume data for other months. LME lithium hydroxide futures data is also presented, but specific details are not fully described in the text [15]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore and Salt Prices**: The latest average prices of various lithium ores and salts are provided, such as lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) at 4,375 yuan/ton, battery - grade lithium carbonate at 136,000 yuan/ton (up 500 yuan, 0.37% daily), and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide at 123,200 yuan/ton (up 700 yuan, 0.57% daily) [22]. - **Price Seasonality and Trends**: Seasonal and historical price trends of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other related products are presented through charts, including six - fluoro lithium phosphate, phosphoric (manganese) iron lithium, and ternary materials [23][24]. - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in Japan, South Korea, and domestic prices are calculated and analyzed, showing daily and weekly changes [25]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Analysis**: The basis of the lithium carbonate main - continuous contract, the seasonal basis of the Ganglian - lithium carbonate main contract, and the basis of the near - month contract are analyzed through charts and data. The brand - specific basis quotes of different lithium carbonate producers are also provided [30][33][34]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The total number of Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 35,537 lots, up 940 lots (2.72%) daily and 2,453 lots (7.41%) weekly. The warehouse receipt data of different warehouses are detailed [5][37]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - **Production Profit**: The production profits of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore (lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate) and the production profits of lithium hydroxide by causticization and smelting methods are presented through charts [40]. - **Delivery and Trade Profits**: The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, as well as the export profit of lithium hydroxide and the import profit of lithium carbonate, are shown in the charts [42][43].

. 南华期货碳酸锂数据日报 2026年02月03日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 一、期货数据 碳酸锂期货价格区间 品种 价格区间预测 当前波动率（20日滚动） 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） 碳酸锂主力合约 强支撑位：130000 112.1% 96.6% source： 同花顺,南华研究 碳酸锂期货主力合约 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 碳酸锂期货主力合约收盘价 碳酸锂期货主力合约成交量(右轴) 碳酸锂期货主力合约持仓量(右轴) 手 25/02 25/03 25/04 25/05 25/06 25/07 25/08 25/09 25/10 25/11 25/12 26/01 50000 100000 150000 200000 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 碳酸锂期货数据 | 指标 | 本期值 | 日涨跌 | 日环比 | 周涨跌 | 周环比 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

| 指标 | 本期值 | 日涨跌 | 日环比 | 周涨跌 | 周环比 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 166740 | 6240 | 3.89% | 4800 | 2.96% | 元/吨 | | 主力合约成交量 | 376418 | -74656 | -16.55% | -212601 | -36.09% | 手 | | 主力合约持仓量 | 427928 | 12577 | 3.03% | -24655 | -5.45% | 手 | | 加权指数合约收盘价 | 167131 | 6304 | 3.92% | 4713 | 2.90% | 元/吨 | | 加权指数合约成交量 | 492964 | -121292 | -19.75% | -593880 | -54.64% | 手 | | 加权指数合约持仓量 | 848112 | 16036 | 1.93% | -38206 | -4.31% | 手 | | LC2605-LC2607 | -620 | 240 | -27.91% | 120 | -16.22% | 元/ ...

Group 1 - The Guangdong Province has issued a comprehensive policy document titled "Guangdong Province's Work Plan for Promoting Financial Services for the Construction of a Strong Technological Province," aiming to enhance the financial system to support technological innovation and high-level self-reliance [1] - The plan introduces innovative mechanisms, including the integration of futures tools and a technology innovation index into the financial policy framework, marking a first in supporting the entire lifecycle of technological innovation [1] - Specific initiatives include the development of futures products related to strategic emerging industries, with a focus on refining the new energy futures sector and advancing the research and listing of lithium hydroxide futures [1] Group 2 - The futures products mentioned, such as lithium hydroxide and carbon emission rights, are part of the planning by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, which has previously launched various futures and options to support green development industries [2] - The carbon emission trading mechanism is a key policy tool for achieving China's "dual carbon" goals, with the national carbon market expanding from 5 billion tons to 8 billion tons in emission coverage this year, increasing the number of regulated enterprises from over 2,200 to 3,700 [2] - The introduction of carbon emission futures and options is expected to enhance market liquidity and provide effective risk management tools for participants, thereby strengthening China's position in the international carbon market [3] Group 3 - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has nearly completed the design of the carbon emission futures contract and plans to proceed with its listing while focusing on foundational research and contract design [3] - Future efforts will concentrate on innovative fields such as new energy, new materials, and carbon emissions, with an emphasis on expanding product offerings and enhancing the application of weather indices in futures markets [3] - The exchange aims to strengthen market cultivation services, improve market regulation, and better support green development and initiatives like the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the Belt and Road Initiative [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangdong Provincial Financial Management Bureau, along with nine other departments, has issued a work plan to promote financial services for the construction of a technology-driven province, focusing on enhancing the role of futures and technology innovation indices in supporting technological advancements [1] Group 1: Financial Services and Futures - The plan proposes the implementation of a strong foundation for technology finance, aiming to systematically advance the futures and technology innovation index system to empower technological innovation [1] - There is an emphasis on refining the futures product segment for strategic emerging industries, particularly in the renewable energy sector [1] - The development and listing of futures products such as lithium hydroxide are prioritized to create a comprehensive system of renewable energy products [1] Group 2: Strategic Industry Support - The plan aims to steadily advance the research and development of major strategic products like carbon emission rights to support the growth of strategic emerging industries such as renewable energy and energy storage [1] - The role of indices and index-based investments is highlighted as a crucial link between capital market financing and investment, encouraging index institutions to focus on key regions, industries, and enterprises [1] Group 3: Investment Products and Innovation - Support is provided for securities and fund management institutions to develop technology-themed fund products that align with national strategies, enhancing active management capabilities directed towards technology enterprises [1] - The initiative seeks to enrich the categories of technology innovation indices and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), promoting the aggregation of more medium- to long-term capital towards the development of new productive forces [1] - The plan aims to further guide the functionality of technology innovation index fund tools in driving innovation-driven development [1]

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is planning to introduce new key futures products, indicating a strategic direction for the Chinese futures market as it transitions from the 14th Five-Year Plan to the 15th [1] - The carbon emissions trading market is expanding, with the national carbon market's coverage increasing from 5 billion tons to 8 billion tons, and the number of regulated enterprises rising from over 2,200 to 3,700, marking a 60% increase in market scale [2] - The introduction of carbon emissions futures is seen as a crucial step in managing price volatility and enhancing the carbon financial product offerings in response to the growing demand from newly included industries [2] Group 2 - Hydrogen energy is recognized as a vital component of future energy systems, with China's hydrogen production and consumption expected to exceed 36.5 million tons in 2024, making it the largest globally [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange is developing a "China Hydrogen Price Index" to improve market price guidance and establish a trading framework for hydrogen energy [3] - The potential launch of scrap steel futures is anticipated to address pricing transparency and risk management needs in the steel industry, promoting a circular economy [3] Group 3 - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange is actively working on the development and listing of lithium hydroxide futures, which are essential for the lithium battery industry and will provide real-time pricing to market participants [4] - The introduction of sunflower seed oil futures is expected to help domestic enterprises hedge risks and enhance China's bargaining power in global sunflower oil trade [5] - The future launch of potato futures aims to support the national strategy for potato as a staple food, providing price signals to processing and logistics companies [5] Group 4 - The development of chicken futures is underway to expand the range of futures tools available for agricultural services, addressing price volatility issues in the poultry industry [5] - The People's Bank of China and other departments are working on the introduction of RMB foreign exchange futures, which will lower hedging barriers for small and medium enterprises and support the internationalization of the RMB [7] - The Chinese futures market is transitioning from scale expansion to quality enhancement, aiming to integrate with national strategies and better serve the high-quality development of the real economy [7]

Core Insights - The seminar held on November 7 in Beijing focused on "Integrating Innovation and Moving Forward" to enhance risk management strategies for enterprises [1][2] - The strategic value of the derivatives market is emphasized as a crucial tool for risk management amid increasing uncertainties in the global supply chain and market volatility [2][4] Group 1: Seminar Objectives and Themes - The seminar aimed to foster deep cooperation and collaborative development in risk management among various stakeholders in the industry [1] - The theme "Integration" includes deep integration between industry and finance, collaboration between on-exchange and off-exchange markets, and the intersection of technology and risk management tools [3] - "Innovation" is seen as a key response to contemporary challenges, involving product upgrades, service model transformations, and talent development [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Developments - The derivatives market in the Asia-Pacific region is experiencing strong growth, with China's derivatives market being a significant highlight [4] - Over the past 20 years, China's futures and options markets have seen substantial growth in product variety and trader numbers, aided by regulatory advancements [4][5] - The introduction of new laws and regulations aims to align China's derivatives market with international standards, enhancing its attractiveness to global investors [4] Group 3: Risk Management Practices - The seminar discussed the shift in derivatives risk management from a traditional "cost center" approach to a modern "strategic tool" perspective [6] - Participants highlighted the importance of using derivatives to manage price volatility and stabilize profits, particularly in sectors like lithium hydroxide and cobalt [7] - Companies are encouraged to adopt flexible hedging strategies and utilize derivatives to navigate complex market conditions, especially in agricultural imports [8] Group 4: Regulatory and Compliance Aspects - State-owned enterprises are advised to adhere strictly to internal control and financial processing norms in their hedging activities to ensure compliance and risk management [9] - The CME Group has established a regulatory outreach team to enhance market participants' understanding of trading rules and maintain market order [9]

Core Insights - The core strategy of CME Group in the Asia-Pacific region focuses on mature markets like Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore, while also exploring emerging markets such as Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam through partnerships with local exchanges [1][6] - Russell Beattie emphasizes the importance of understanding the diverse commercial ecosystem in the Asia-Pacific region, which includes both highly developed economies and rapidly growing emerging markets [1][3] Market Engagement in China - China is identified as a key market for CME Group, with significant engagement and positive interactions with local institutions, reflecting a strong desire for market openness and internationalization [2][6] - The demand for risk management products in China is similar to other markets, driven by the need for diverse products and high liquidity to manage price volatility [2][6] Retail Trader Focus - CME Group has recently focused on retail traders, with over 90,000 new retail traders joining in the second quarter, marking a 56% year-on-year increase [3][4] - The introduction of micro contracts has led to record daily trading volumes, demonstrating the appeal of CME Group's products to a broader user base [3][4] Record Market Performance - CME Group achieved a historic average daily trading volume of over 30 million contracts in the second quarter, a 16% increase year-on-year, driven by rising global risk management needs [4] - The international business segment also saw significant growth, with average daily volumes reaching 9.2 million contracts, an 18% increase year-on-year [4] Risk Management Innovations - CME Group has implemented a multi-tiered risk control system to ensure market stability during periods of volatility, including price limits and a speed logic monitoring system [5][4] - The exchange collaborates closely with local exchanges in the Asia-Pacific region to enhance market services and reduce cross-border trading costs [5][6] Battery Component Market Development - CME Group has launched futures for battery components, including cobalt and lithium hydroxide, to address the growing risk management needs in the electric vehicle sector [7][8] - The battery component segment achieved record trading volumes, indicating strong participation from industry clients seeking to manage price risks [8] New Product Offerings - CME Group introduced the FTSE Core Commodity CRB Index, which allows asset managers to develop ETFs and mutual funds for commodity price risk management [9] - The exchange has also established partnerships with Chinese institutions to enhance product offerings and facilitate market access [9][10] Educational Initiatives - CME Group is actively engaged in investor education, conducting seminars and producing educational materials to enhance understanding of global markets among Chinese traders [10]

Group 1: Strategic Focus in Asia-Pacific - The company aims to enhance revenue by focusing on mature markets like Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore, while also exploring emerging markets such as Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam through partnerships with local exchanges [1][2] - Russell emphasizes the importance of understanding the diverse commercial ecosystem in the Asia-Pacific region, which includes both developed economies and rapidly growing emerging markets [1][3] Group 2: Engagement with China - China is identified as a key market, with Russell noting the warm reception and openness from Chinese institutions during his visits [2][7] - The demand for risk management in China is similar to other markets, driven by the need for diversified products and high liquidity to manage price volatility [2][4] Group 3: Growth in Retail Trading - The company has seen a significant increase in retail traders, with over 90,000 new retail traders joining in the second quarter, marking a 56% year-on-year growth [3][4] - The average daily trading volume of micro contracts reached a record 4.1 million contracts, indicating strong product appeal to a broader user base [3][4] Group 4: Record Market Performance - The average daily trading volume surpassed 30 million contracts for the first time, with a 16% year-on-year increase in the second quarter [4][5] - International business also performed well, with an 18% year-on-year increase in average daily trading volume, reaching 9.2 million contracts [4][5] Group 5: Risk Management and Market Integrity - The company has established a multi-layered risk control system to ensure market security during periods of volatility, including price limits and circuit breakers [5][6] - The use of a velocity logic monitoring system helps track abnormal price fluctuations with millisecond precision [6] Group 6: Collaboration with Local Exchanges - The company maintains a philosophy of close cooperation with local exchanges to expand market services, exemplified by the mutual offset system with the Singapore Exchange [6][7] - This system allows traders to access liquidity from both exchanges, reducing cross-border trading costs [6] Group 7: Focus on Battery Components and Green Economy - The company has launched futures for cobalt, lithium hydroxide, and lithium carbonate to address the growing risk management needs in the electric vehicle sector [8][9] - The electric vehicle market in China is highlighted as a significant driver for demand in battery component risk management tools [7][8] Group 8: Educational Initiatives - The company is actively involved in investor education, conducting seminars and producing educational materials to enhance understanding of derivatives among market participants [11][12] - Collaborations with local institutions aim to deepen knowledge of global markets and improve risk management capabilities [11][12]