机构：长江证券 研究员：高超/杨云祺 事件描述 腾讯25Q2 实现收入1845 亿元，同比+15%，环比+2%；实现经营盈利601 亿元，同比+18%；Non-IFRS 归母净利润631 亿元，同比+10%。收入和经调净利润高于市场预期。 事件评论 《三角洲行动》及长青游戏表现强势，海外游戏续创历史新高：1）《三角洲行动》7 月平均DAU 达 2000 万+（4 月DAU 峰值1200 万+），成为行业DAU 前5、流水前3 的游戏；《王者荣耀》《无畏契 约》《和平精英》长青游戏收入仍在增长区间；受益于小游戏技术底座升级等，Q2 小游戏流水同比 +20%。长线游戏收入增长叠加新游增量带动Q2 国内游戏收入+17%至404 亿。2）Supercell《皇室战 争》大改获得显著成功，DAU 提升带动流水在25M6 创7 年新高，近3 个月稳居美区iOS 畅销榜Top10 且在8 月初成功登顶，叠加《PUBG MOBILE》流水增长及《沙丘：觉醒》等新游贡献，Q2 海外游戏收 入同比+35%至188 亿（按固定汇率+33%），连续四季度刷新纪录，增速创近9 个季度的新高。 AI 提效显著，广告长期增长势能强劲：1） ...

2025 年2 季度业绩：总收入同比增15%至1845 亿元（人民币，下同），高于我们/彭博市场预期 4%/3%，其中游戏+22%/社交+6%/营销+20%/金融企服+10%。毛利润同比增22%，快于收入增速，毛利 率同比优化约3.6 个百分点至57%，得益于高毛利业务包括本土游戏、视频号和搜一搜收入增量贡献以 及支付和云服务成本优化。调整后每股盈利6.79 元，同比增13%，高于我们/彭博市场预期5%/3%。 2 季度运营要点：1）本土游戏收入同比增17%，受益于新游《三角洲行动》增量贡献以及多款长青游 戏收入增长；海外游戏收入增35%，大幅超过我们预期，《PUBG MOBILE》和Supercell 游戏表现亮 眼，新游《沙丘：觉醒》贡献增量。2）社交收入受手游道具、视频号直播服务收入和音乐付费增长带 动同比增6%，小游戏流水增20%。3）营销收入保持20%的同比增速，升级基础模型提升广告效果推动 视频号/搜一搜/小程序广告的强劲需求（收入增分别~50%/60%/50%）。4）金融科技收入同比高个位数 增长，商业支付交易量恢复正增长；企服收入加速增长因AI 相关服务需求（GPU 租赁和API token ...

Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrated strong financial performance in 2Q25, with a 15% year-over-year topline growth, a gross profit margin (GPM) of 56.9%, and an adjusted operating profit of RMB69.2 billion, reflecting an 18% year-over-year increase, all surpassing consensus expectations [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Total revenue reached RMB184.5 billion, marking a 15% year-over-year increase, exceeding consensus by 3% and BOCIe by 2% [4]. - Domestic games revenue increased by 17% year-over-year, while overseas games revenue surged by 35% year-over-year [4]. - Advertising revenue grew by 20% year-over-year, driven by significant increases in video accounts, mini-programs, and Weixin search [4]. - Adjusted operating profit rose by 18% year-over-year to RMB69.2 billion, beating BOCIe estimates by 3% [4]. - Capital expenditures amounted to RMB19.1 billion, representing 10% of total revenue [4]. Group 2: AI Integration and Growth - The company is positioned as a beneficiary of AI, leveraging it for sustainable growth across core business segments and enhancing user experience and monetization [2]. - AI is expected to improve production, analysis, targeting, and recommendation capabilities in online advertising, contributing to increased return on investment [3][2]. - The company is committed to AI investments and product promotions, which are reflected in the raised gross profit forecasts due to a shift towards in-house titles and high-margin ad formats [3]. Group 3: Forecast Adjustments - Domestic games revenue forecasts have been raised by 0-1%, while overseas games revenue estimates have been increased by 4-6% [3]. - Online advertising revenue estimates have been uplifted by 1-2% to account for enhanced ROI from AI initiatives [3]. - The overall growth momentum is supported by a favorable revenue mix and channel optimization [3]. Group 4: Valuation and Recommendations - The company maintains a "BUY" rating and has raised the target price to HK$705.0, reflecting a 24x and 20x adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for 2025E and 2026E, respectively [1][4]. - The valuation is based on updated estimates and corresponding gross profit growth multiples for various segments [4].