Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - In July, the National Press and Publication Administration approved 127 domestic game titles, including key products from Huatuo and Giant Network. The summer gaming season has seen strong performance from multiple new games, indicating a sustained high level of activity in the gaming sector [2][4] - The new game cycle, favorable policy trends, and AI catalysis are expected to drive continued improvement in the gaming sector's fundamentals, suggesting that the valuation of the gaming sector still has upward elasticity. Investors are encouraged to continue monitoring investment opportunities in this sector [2][4] Summary by Sections Game License Issuance - In July, 127 domestic games received approval, including Huatuo's "Kingshot" and Giant Network's "Famous Generals Kill." Additionally, 7 imported game licenses were granted [9] - "Kingshot" has seen significant revenue growth, doubling in May and increasing by 56% in June, ranking third in China's mobile game overseas revenue growth [9] New Game Performance - Several new games from listed gaming companies have performed strongly during the summer season. For instance, Giant Network's "Supernatural Action Group" reached the top 4 in the free game rankings and top 20 in the revenue rankings on its launch day [9] - Other notable performances include Jiubite's "Staff Sword Legend," which entered the iOS revenue rankings top 13, and Tencent's "Dungeon and Fighter Mobile," which topped the iOS revenue rankings [9] Future Outlook - The pipeline for key gaming companies is robust, with several new titles set to launch, including "Tomb Raider: Journey" and "Douluo Continent: Evil Legend" [9] - The new game cycle is expected to enhance the sector's fundamentals, with ongoing policy stability and the integration of AI in gaming likely to boost valuations and performance [9]

Core Insights - The global mobile game revenue rankings for June 2025 have been released, with Tencent's "Honor of Kings" leading the chart despite a month-over-month revenue decline [1][2]. Group 1: Top Revenue Generating Games - "Honor of Kings" by Tencent generated $143 million in June, maintaining its top position despite a $40 million drop from May's $184 million [2]. - "Whiteout Survival" and "LastWar" closely follow, with "Whiteout Survival" earning $128 million and "LastWar" at $127 million, showing a very narrow revenue gap [2]. - "Royal Match" ranked fourth with a revenue of $117 million, marking its first drop below $120 million since June 2024 [3]. Group 2: Notable Trends and Changes - "Monopoly Go" by Scopely has stabilized around $100 million for three consecutive months, while "Candy Crush Saga" saw its revenue fall below $100 million for the first time since February, now at $97 million [3]. - "PUBG Mobile" and "Peacekeeper Elite" also experienced revenue declines, with "Peacekeeper Elite" dropping from approximately $120 million in May to about $94 million in June [3]. - "Pokémon Go" saw a significant revenue increase to over $62 million due to community events, while "Pokémon TCG Pocket" faced a decline from approximately $81 million to $56 million [4]. Group 3: Rankings Beyond the Top 10 - "Genshin Impact" by miHoYo ranked 11th with $48.8 million, while "Gossip Harbor" reached $44.2 million, marking a new high [5][6]. - "Roblox" continued to struggle with a revenue drop to $39.2 million, while "Kingshot" surged to $37.3 million, climbing 13 positions [6][7]. - "Clash Royale" by Supercell achieved a revenue of approximately $36 million, marking its best performance since December 2021 [7].

Core Insights - The global mobile game revenue rankings for May 2025 have been released, showing significant performance variations among top games [1][2]. Group 1: Top Performers - "Honor of Kings" by Tencent continues to lead the chart with a revenue of $184 million in May, maintaining its position after regaining the top spot in April [1][2]. - "Whiteout Survival" and "Last War: Survival" are in a close competition for the second position, with revenues of $137 million and $133 million respectively, marking their third consecutive month of rank changes [2][3]. - "PUBG Mobile" ranks fifth with a revenue of approximately $119 million, showing a slight month-over-month increase [3]. Group 2: Revenue Fluctuations - "Royal Match" experienced significant revenue fluctuations, earning about $127 million in May after peaking at nearly $145 million in March [2]. - "Candy Crush Saga" and "Monopoly Go" followed closely with revenues of $105 million and $100 million, both showing slight declines [3]. - "Pokémon TCG Pocket" saw its revenue rebound to over $80 million, heavily influenced by new card pack releases [3]. Group 3: Rankings 11-20 - The rankings from 11 to 20 include "Gossip Harbor" at $42.4 million, "Brawl Stars" at $38.9 million, and "Honkai: Star Rail" at $38.5 million, indicating a steady performance for these titles [4][5]. - "Gossip Harbor" has shown consistent growth since its launch in mid-2022, achieving a new high in May [5]. - "Fate/Grand Order" made a notable comeback to the top 20 with a revenue of $32.1 million [5].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's existing businesses are gradually emerging from operational cycle lows, with key games returning to healthy growth and advertising efficiency improving through integration with various platforms [1][5] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tencent's 1Q25 revenue increased by 13% year-on-year, reaching 180 billion, exceeding expectations by 2.5% [1] - Non-IFRS net profit for 1Q25 was 61.3 billion, up 22% year-on-year, surpassing expectations by 3% [1] Group 2: Gaming Business - Tencent's gaming strategy has shifted to focus on evergreen games and new game reserves, leading to a positive outlook for growth [2] - Key games like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" have shown recovery in DAU/MAU metrics, with revenue growth expected to improve in 2025 [2] - AI integration in gaming is expected to enhance content production cycles and interactivity, contributing to revenue growth [2] Group 3: Advertising Business - Advertising revenue grew by 20% in 1Q25, significantly outpacing industry averages, driven by video accounts and mini-programs [3] - AI applications in advertising are enhancing return on investment, with expectations for continued growth in 2025 [3] Group 4: Financial Technology and Cloud Services - Financial technology services showed low single-digit growth, primarily driven by loans and wealth management, while payment services faced challenges [4] - Cloud services are undergoing restructuring, focusing on profitability and optimizing gross margins, with AI capabilities expected to enhance service offerings [4]

Group 1: Company Performance - Tencent's gaming business achieved a revenue of 59.5 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with domestic market revenue at 42.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%, and international market revenue at 16.6 billion yuan, a growth of 23% [1] - NetEase reported a net revenue of 28.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with gaming and related value-added services contributing 24 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.1% [1] - Both Tencent and NetEase's classic IPs have been crucial in driving stable growth in their gaming businesses, with Tencent's "Honor of Kings" and "Crossfire Mobile" achieving record-high revenue in Q1 2025 [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The mobile gaming industry is entering a new growth phase, with industry leaders focusing on long-term value rather than short-term gains [2][3] - A report by Moloco indicates that while overall app installation volume decreased by 0.2% over the past year, the paid user conversion rate for top apps increased by 6% [2] - High-value users, representing only 0.02% of global installations on the iOS platform, contributed 20% of total revenue for global iOS and Android games [2]

Core Insights - Tencent Holdings reported Q1 2025 revenue of 1800.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.4% [1] - The company achieved a gross profit of 1004.93 billion yuan, up 19.8% year-on-year and 10.9% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Adjusted net profit reached 613.29 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.0% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 10.9% [1] Gaming Business Performance - Tencent's gaming business showed accelerated growth, with domestic game revenue increasing by 24% year-on-year to 429 billion yuan, driven by popular titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [1] - The new game "Delta Action" achieved a peak daily active user count of over 12 million, becoming the highest in average daily active accounts among new games released in the last three years [1] - Overseas game revenue grew by 23% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter to 166 billion yuan, supported by titles such as "Brawl Stars" and "PUBG MOBILE" [1] Advertising Business Growth - Tencent's advertising revenue for Q1 2025 reached 319 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20%, exceeding market expectations [1] - The growth was attributed to strong demand from advertisers for video accounts, mini-programs, and WeChat search ads, as well as improved content recommendations driven by AI [1] AI Investment and Applications - Tencent's capital expenditure (CAPEX) for Q1 2025 was 274.76 billion yuan, accounting for 15.3% of revenue, with a significant portion directed towards AI-related business development [2] - The company is actively enhancing AI applications within its ecosystem, including context-aware AI interactions and AI tools for content creators [2] - Tencent aims to leverage its WeChat ecosystem to create an "Agentic AI" that connects social relationships, communication, and content systems [2] Future Outlook - The gaming, advertising, and cloud businesses are expected to benefit from the development of AI technology, with WeChat evolving into an "AI operating system" [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 7243 billion yuan, 7888 billion yuan, and 8521 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 2452 billion yuan, 2690 billion yuan, and 2981 billion yuan respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [1][7] Core Views - Tencent's gaming and advertising revenues exceeded expectations, with a focus on future AI investments and developments [1][3] - The gaming business showed accelerated growth, particularly in domestic game revenue, which increased by 24% year-on-year to 42.9 billion yuan [2] - The advertising business also outperformed market expectations, achieving a revenue of 31.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20% [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 609.02 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.82% [1] - Adjusted net profit for 2023 is expected to be 115.22 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 38.79% year-on-year [1] - The report forecasts revenue growth to 660.26 billion yuan in 2024 and 724.25 billion yuan in 2025, with adjusted net profit expected to rise to 194.07 billion yuan and 225.46 billion yuan respectively [1][7] AI Investment and Future Outlook - Tencent's capital expenditure (CAPEX) for Q1 2025 was 27.48 billion yuan, primarily focused on AI-related business development, representing 15.3% of revenue [4] - The company is actively enhancing its AI applications within its ecosystem, including AI tools for content creation and user interaction [4][7] - The report anticipates that Tencent's gaming, advertising, and cloud businesses will benefit from AI technology advancements, positioning WeChat as a potential "AI operating system" [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [4] Core Views - The company has exceeded revenue and profit expectations, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 1800.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 1756.0 billion yuan. Non-IFRS net profit was 613.3 billion yuan, up 22.0% year-on-year, also exceeding expectations [2][14] - AI is making substantial contributions to the gaming and advertising industries, enhancing product differentiation and driving revenue growth [3][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 1800.2 billion yuan, up 12.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [2][14] - Non-IFRS net profit for Q1 2025 was 613.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.0%, also above consensus estimates [2][14] Gaming Business - Online gaming revenue reached 595 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 23.7% year-on-year increase, surpassing expectations [20] - Domestic gaming revenue was 429 billion yuan, up 24.3% year-on-year, while international gaming revenue was 166 billion yuan, up 22.1% year-on-year [21] Advertising Revenue - Advertising revenue for Q1 2025 was 319 billion yuan, a 20.4% year-on-year increase, exceeding expectations [24] - The growth in advertising revenue is attributed to increased user engagement, AI upgrades, and optimization of the WeChat ecosystem [24] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue was 549 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 5.0% year-on-year increase, slightly below expectations [28] - The growth in financial technology is driven by consumer loan services and wealth management services [28] Profitability Metrics - Overall gross margin for Q1 2025 was 56%, up 3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by high-margin revenue sources [33] - The gross margin for value-added services was 60%, reflecting growth in both domestic and international gaming revenue [33] Future Earnings Forecast - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of 2441 billion yuan, 2693 billion yuan, and 2984 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 16, and 14 times [4][43]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to Tencent Holdings (00700.HK), indicating a potential upside in the stock price of approximately 20%-50% from the current levels, with a target price range of HKD 600-750 [27]. Core Insights - Tencent's Q1 2025 financial results exceeded market expectations, with total revenue reaching RMB 1800.22 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13%, and adjusted net profit of RMB 613.29 billion, up 22% year-on-year [2][27]. - The company's strong performance is driven by its leading position in domestic gaming and significant growth in international markets, alongside robust contributions from high-margin businesses such as advertising and cloud services [2][27]. - Tencent's strategic focus on AI technology is enhancing operational efficiency and driving revenue growth across various segments, including gaming and advertising [27]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Tencent achieved a core net profit margin of 26.5% and a gross profit margin of 56%, both reaching historical peaks [2][5]. - The company reported a free cash flow of RMB 471 billion and maintained a strong cash reserve of RMB 2052.53 billion, reflecting a healthy financial position [5][27]. - Capital expenditures surged by 91% year-on-year to RMB 274.8 billion, primarily for AI-related infrastructure and model development [5][8]. Gaming Business - Tencent's value-added services revenue grew by 17% year-on-year, with domestic gaming revenue increasing by 24% to RMB 429 billion, driven by record-breaking performances of titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [9][10]. - International gaming revenue reached RMB 166 billion, up 23% year-on-year, contributing 27.9% to total gaming revenue [10][27]. - The integration of AI technology in gaming operations has improved efficiency, with a 40% increase in scene building efficiency and enhanced player experiences through AI-driven features [12][15][16]. Advertising Business - Tencent's marketing services revenue rose by 20% year-on-year to RMB 318.53 billion, driven by explosive growth in video account advertising [18][27]. - The advertising segment is transitioning from "traffic monetization" to "technology empowerment," with significant contributions from AI-driven advertising systems [18][20]. - The company is optimizing its advertising structure, leading to improved conversion rates and increased user engagement across its platforms [19][20]. Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services reached RMB 549.07 billion, a 5% year-on-year increase, benefiting from a recovery in consumer spending and AI-driven enhancements in enterprise solutions [24][26]. - Tencent's cross-border payment services are expanding, with a 45% year-on-year increase in transaction volume, reflecting strong demand from Chinese tourists in Southeast Asia [25][26]. - The integration of AI in cloud services is driving significant growth, with a 60% year-on-year increase in AI-related cloud revenue [25][26]. Future Outlook - Tencent is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of over 20% in the gaming sector over the next two years, supported by the launch of cross-platform titles and a strategic push for international revenue [17][27]. - The company's AI strategy is anticipated to enhance its long-term growth potential, with a projected revenue growth of 8%-10% for 2025 [27].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Tencent's Q1 revenue reached 1800.2 billion CNY, representing a year-over-year increase of 12.9% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4.4%, exceeding consensus expectations of 1756.0 billion CNY [4] - The company's gross profit for Q1 was 1004.9 billion CNY, up 19.8% year-over-year and 10.9% quarter-over-quarter, also surpassing the consensus estimate of 947.7 billion CNY [4] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 was 613.3 billion CNY, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 22.0% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 10.9%, exceeding the consensus forecast of 596.8 billion CNY [4] Summary by Sections Q1 Performance - Tencent's Q1 revenue was 1800.2 billion CNY, with a gross profit of 1004.9 billion CNY and adjusted net profit of 613.3 billion CNY, all beating market expectations [4] Value-Added Services (VAS) - Domestic game revenue in Q1 was 429 billion CNY, up 24% year-over-year, driven by seasonal peaks in popular games like "Honor of Kings" and "Crossfire Mobile" [5] - International game revenue reached 166 billion CNY, a 22% year-over-year increase, supported by titles such as "Brawl Stars" and "PUBG MOBILE" [5] Marketing Business - Marketing revenue for Q1 was 319 billion CNY, a 20% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand for advertising on platforms like WeChat and video accounts [6] - The combined monthly active users (MAU) for WeChat and WeChat reached 1.402 billion, a 3% year-over-year increase [6] Financial Technology - Financial technology revenue was 549 billion CNY, a 5% year-over-year increase, with gross margin improving to 50% [7] AI Investments - Tencent's capital expenditure in Q1 was 274.8 billion CNY, a 91% year-over-year increase, reflecting ongoing investments in AI across various business lines [8] Profit Forecast - The projected net profits for Tencent for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2560.2 billion CNY, 2973.9 billion CNY, and 3384.8 billion CNY respectively, with a stable pipeline of new games and AI integration across business lines [10]