证券研究报告 常宝股份 (002478 CH) 25H1 下游景气分化，锅炉管好于油套管 2025 年 8 月 22 日│中国内地 特钢 维持"增持"评级 考虑到油套管景气度不及我们先前的预期，我们下调 2025 年油套管毛利率， 测算公司 2025-2027 年 EPS 分别为 0.66、0.79、0.83 元（前值 2025-2027 年 0.72、0.79、0.83 元），BVPS 分别为 6.70、7.28、7.87 元（前值 2025-2027 年 6.75、7.32、7.91 元）。可比公司 2025 年 Wind 一致预期 PB 均值为 1.0 X，给予公司 2025 年 Wind 一致预期 PB 均值为 1.0X，对应目标价 6.67 元 （前值 5.99 元，基于 PB 0.9X），维持"增持"评级。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期，钢铁价格超预期下跌。 | 华泰研究 | | 中报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 8 月 22 日│中国内地 | 特钢 | 目标价(人民币): | 6.67 | 李斌 研 ...

常宝股份（002478.SZ） 证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 22 年 月 日 季度业绩环比改善，特材项目持续推进 事件：公司发布 2025年半年度报告。公司上半年实现营业收入28.12亿元，同比增长0.26%； 归属于母公司所有者的净利润 2.55 亿元，同比减少 21.81%；基本每股收益 0.28 元，同比 减少 22.22%。 季度业绩环比改善，销售净利率小幅回落。公司 2025Q2 实现归母净利 1.44 亿元，同比下 降 10.21%，环比增长 29.15%，实现扣非归母净利 1.26 亿元，同比下降 4.98%，环比增长 34.18%；公司 2024Q3-2025Q2 逐季销售毛利率分别为 17.10%、17.45%、15.33%、15.75%， 逐季销售净利率分别为 6.53%、15.78%、9.76%、9.25%，上半年受行业整体竞争加强及外 贸市场下滑等影响，公司盈利情况同比有所下降，2025 年二季度销售净利率小幅回落。分 产品来看，上半年油套管毛利率为 16.04%，同比增长 0.84pct，锅炉管毛利率为 19.49%， 同比下降 1.99p ...

Core Insights - The company's 1H25 performance met expectations with revenue of 22.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and a net profit of 1.83 billion yuan, up 13% year-on-year, resulting in earnings per share of 0.16 yuan [1] - The company experienced a negative cash flow from operating activities of 480 million yuan, primarily due to increased procurement expenses [1] - The gross profit for 1H25 was 3.46 billion yuan, with a gross margin increase of 1.2 percentage points to 15.3%, marking a historical high for the same period [2] Revenue and Profitability - The energy technology segment achieved a gross profit of 1.72 billion yuan, with a gross margin increase of 2.5 percentage points to 21.5%, the highest in history [3] - The low-carbon environmental protection segment saw a revenue increase of 11% to 3.87 billion yuan, with significant growth in new energy technology and safety emergency services [3] - The company secured new external market orders worth 31.6 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141%, with notable breakthroughs in overseas markets [3] Energy Logistics and Future Outlook - The energy logistics segment reported a revenue increase of 5% to 11.6 billion yuan, with a gross profit increase of 6% to 1 billion yuan [4] - The company has commenced construction on 10 LNG transport vessels, expected to gradually enter production from 2026 to 2027, which is anticipated to drive sustained profit growth [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 remains largely unchanged, with the current stock price corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 10 times for 2025 and 8.7 times for 2026 [5] - The company maintains an outperform rating and a target price of 4.9 yuan, implying a potential upside of 24.4% based on the 2025 earnings multiple [5]

Core Insights - The GDP of Hongsi Fort District in Wuzhong City, Ningxia reached 5.33 billion yuan, ranking second in Ningxia and first in Wuzhong City, maintaining a position in the top four of Ningxia for ten consecutive quarters [1] Group 1: Major Projects - The oil drilling equipment manufacturing project in Hongsi Fort District is a significant investment of 370 million yuan, covering an area of 158 acres, aimed at providing high-quality drilling equipment for oil and gas fields [2] - The project is expected to produce 9,000 tons of drilling rods annually, generating an output value of 400 million yuan, with a total production value of 650 million yuan upon completion [3] - In 2025, Hongsi Fort District plans to implement 142 projects with a total investment of 32.61 billion yuan, with an annual planned investment of 16.33 billion yuan [4] Group 2: E-commerce Development - The e-commerce selection center in Hongsi Fort District, covering 2,000 square meters, has attracted 134 enterprises and is expected to achieve annual sales exceeding 100 million yuan [6] - Since the establishment of the e-commerce project in 2016, the district has built 16 e-commerce public service centers, 1 selection center, and 68 village-level e-commerce stations, fostering a robust e-commerce ecosystem [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent stock performance of Shandong Molong, which saw a 3.85% increase, reaching a price of 4.58 HKD per share with a trading volume of 300 million HKD [1] - Shandong Molong is a company focused on energy equipment manufacturing and services, offering a wide range of products including oil casing, line pipes, drill pipe bodies, boiler pipes, sucker rods, sucker pumps, and oil machinery accessories [1] - The company has established strong partnerships with major players in the industry such as PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC, and its products are widely used in oil, natural gas, shale gas, coalbed methane extraction, and coal mining machinery [1] Group 2 - As of the first quarter of 2025, Shandong Molong reported total revenue of 291 million RMB and a net profit of 5.42 million RMB [2]

Group 1 - Shandong Molong's stock price increased by 5.3% to 4.97 HKD per share, with a trading volume of 365 million HKD as of July 31 [1] - Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co., Ltd. specializes in energy equipment manufacturing and services, offering a wide range of products including oil casing, line pipes, drill pipes, boiler pipes, and oil extraction equipment [1] - The company has established strong partnerships with major players in the industry such as PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC, and its products are widely used in oil, natural gas, shale gas, coalbed methane extraction, and coal mining [1] Group 2 - As of the first quarter of 2025, Shandong Molong reported total revenue of 291 million CNY and a net profit of 5.42 million CNY [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant stock performance of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co., Ltd., which saw a 10.05% increase in stock price, reaching 6.13 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 7.73 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 24.25%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 48.91 billion yuan [1] - Shandong Molong is a manufacturer and service provider for the energy equipment industry, offering products such as oil casing, line pipes, drill pipe bodies, and various petroleum machinery components and downhole tools [1] - The company has established strong partnerships with major players in the industry, including China National Petroleum Corporation and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, and its products are utilized across multiple sectors, including oil and natural gas [1] Group 2 - For the first quarter of 2025, Shandong Molong reported an operating income of 291 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 50.51%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.42 million yuan, showing a significant decline of 97.50% compared to the previous year [1] - As of March 31, the company had 24,700 shareholders, with an average of 32,300 circulating shares per shareholder [1]

Company Overview - Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co., Ltd. is a specialized energy equipment manufacturer and service provider, established in 1987, aiming to become a globally recognized player in the oil machinery sector [2] - The company has developed a complete industrial chain for oil machinery, including processes such as smelting, casting, steel pipe hot rolling, cold drawing, heat treatment, surface treatment, mechanical processing, inspection, and oilfield services [2] - Main products include various types of pipes, extraction equipment, precision casting products, and large valves, which are widely used in oil, natural gas, shale gas, and coal mining industries [2] Financial Performance - As of March 31, 2025, Shandong Molong reported total revenue of 291 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.51% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.42 million yuan, reflecting a significant decrease of 97.5% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin stood at 9.33%, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 79.59% [1] Stock Performance - As of June 23, the stock price of Shandong Molong was 5.65 HKD per share, marking an increase of 8.65% with a trading volume of 282 million shares and a turnover of 1.58 billion HKD [1] - Over the past month, the stock has surged by 101.55%, and since the beginning of the year, it has increased by 329.75%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index's rise of 17.3% [1] Industry Valuation - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the oil and gas industry is -2.69 times, with a median of 4.1 times [1] - Shandong Molong's P/E ratio is -14.79 times, ranking 30th in the industry [1] - Comparatively, other companies in the sector have P/E ratios such as Zhujiang Steel Pipe at 0.99 times, CGII Holdings at 4.1 times, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation at 5.78 times [1]

Group 1 - Shandong Molong's A-shares closed at 4.35 yuan with a strong limit-up, while H-shares saw a peak increase of 160% before closing at a 75.65% rise, with a trading volume of 7.468 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 672.8% [1] - The company's products, including oil casings, line pipes, and sucker rods, are primarily sold in major oil-producing regions such as Africa, South America, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia, covering over 50 countries and regions [1] - For 2024, Shandong Molong is projected to achieve an operating revenue of 1.356 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.95%, but is expected to incur a net loss of 44.64 million yuan, indicating weak profitability [1] Group 2 - Shandong Molong was previously classified as a ST stock and only had its risk warning lifted on May 6, leading to a surge in A-shares and a significant increase of 188.51% in H-shares [2] - The actual impact of the Israeli attack on Iran is estimated to have a limited effect on oil exports, with Iran's projected oil export volume for 2025 being around 1.7 to 1.8 million barrels per day, accounting for only about 4% of global oil exports [2] - Recent reports indicate that Iran's energy infrastructure remains intact, with oil facilities and fuel supply operating normally, which has tempered market speculation [2]

Group 1 - The core business of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co., Ltd. is energy equipment manufacturing and services, focusing on providing high-quality products and services for the energy equipment industry [2] - The company has established a complete industrial chain for petroleum machinery, including processes such as smelting, casting, steel pipe hot rolling, and oilfield services [2] - Shandong Molong's main products include various types of pipes, pumping equipment, precision casting products, and large valves, which are widely used in oil, natural gas, and coal mining industries [2] Group 2 - As of March 31, 2025, Shandong Molong reported total revenue of 291 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.51%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 97.5% to 5.42 million yuan [1] - The company's gross profit margin stands at 9.33%, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 79.59% [1] - The average price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the oil and gas industry is -3.47 times, while Shandong Molong's P/E ratio is -6.54 times, ranking 32nd in the industry [1]