大摩闭门会：春节消费-分化起点，还是整体拐点？260227_导读 全文摘要 春节假期后的消费市场分析揭示了积极的零售餐饮数据，同比增长5.7%，受益于假期延长、暖冬及消费意愿恢 复。尽管如此，市场恢复仍显缓慢，体现出理性消费与价格敏感性。讨论覆盖了多个子板块，如线下服务、旅 行、酒店、餐饮、酒类及海外增长机会，特别强调了海南免税、餐饮、黄金珠宝、酒店行业的发展趋势与投资机 遇。 大摩闭门会：春节消费-分化起点，还是整体拐点？260227_导读 2026年03月01日 00:31 关键词 消费 春节 餐饮 酒店 旅游 白酒 乳制品 啤酒 化妆品 体育用品 黄金珠宝 海南免税 海底捞 通缩 地产 估值 盈利 超额 回报 投资策略 出海 全文摘要 春节假期后的消费市场分析揭示了积极的零售餐饮数据，同比增长5.7%，受益于假期延长、暖冬及消费意愿恢 复。尽管如此，市场恢复仍显缓慢，体现出理性消费与价格敏感性。讨论覆盖了多个子板块，如线下服务、旅 行、酒店、餐饮、酒类及海外增长机会，特别强调了海南免税、餐饮、黄金珠宝、酒店行业的发展趋势与投资机 遇。此外，体育用品、互联网（电商、即时零售、以旧换新）以及北美市场服装、电 ...

● 本报记者 葛瑶 国际资本对中国市场的关注度显著回升。去年境外投资者对中国市场的低配幅度从约2.5%收窄至约 1.3%，减少了约1.2个百分点的低配。瑞银全球金融市场交易部主管贺立言（Neil Hosie）日前在接受中 国证券报记者专访时表示："如果外资进一步降低低配幅度，将意味着可观的潜在资金流入。" 关注科技创新投资主线 贺立言表示，外资情绪正从此前的观望态度转向"谨慎乐观"。在他看来，中国市场估值优势凸显、企业 治理持续改善、科技创新动能不断增强，叠加全球投资者分散化配置需求上升，配置型资金的入场窗口 有望逐渐打开。瑞银预计中国股市2026年全年涨幅约18%，盈利增速约10%，机器人、人工智能、新能 源汽车、生物科技等科技创新赛道最受关注。 外资谨慎乐观 "谨慎但乐观"，贺立言用这一表述来概括当前外资的情绪基调。他观察到，与一年前同期相比，境外投 资者的心态已发生明显转变。"今年投资者正在做大量工作来深入了解中国公司，这和去年年初相比已 经有了很大不同。"他认为，这一变化在一定程度上受2025年A股市场表现带动：上证指数全年涨幅达 18.41%，沪深300指数涨幅超17%，强劲的市场表现开始吸引全球投 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around Pop Mart highlights a mix of admiration for its business model and skepticism about its long-term sustainability, emphasizing the importance of understanding consumer demand for its products [2][5]. Group 1: Company Insights - The company Pop Mart is recognized for its ability to create products with emotional value, which is seen as a significant achievement rather than mere luck [2][5]. - There is uncertainty regarding the future demand for Pop Mart's products, with concerns that consumer interest may wane in the coming years [2][5]. Group 2: Investment Perspective - The investment potential in Pop Mart is contingent on the belief that consumer demand will remain strong over time, which could lead to continued business growth [2][5]. - An investment decision should consider whether one would be willing to buy the company at its market value, which encourages a long-term perspective on the investment [2][5].

Group 1 - Tesla's shareholders approved Elon Musk's $1 trillion compensation package, contingent on achieving a market value of $8.5 trillion and delivering 1 million robots and 1 million cars for autonomous taxi operations within 10 years [1] - Cambodia has become one of the first countries to store gold in China, indicating a strategy to diversify gold storage locations for easier trading rather than moving national reserves [1] - Bubble Mart experienced a live-stream incident where a staff member criticized product pricing, highlighting the company's rapid growth and potential oversight in recruitment and training [1] Group 2 - The chemical sector has seen a significant surge, with the Chemical 50 ETF reaching new highs, reflecting a long-awaited recovery after several years of stagnation [1][4] - Bubble Mart is compared to other forms of emotional value providers, such as pet ownership and gaming, indicating its role in the market as a source of emotional satisfaction [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of establishing a personal investment system and analytical framework to navigate the market, rather than relying solely on historical data or gut feelings [1]. Market Overview - The market experienced slight declines today, influenced by weak import and export data and the announcement of new redemption regulations over the weekend [5]. - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 141.7 billion yuan, with 355.1 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 213.4 billion yuan [3]. - The interbank funding environment showed marginal tightening, with the DR001 rate around 1.33% and DR007 at approximately 1.41% [3]. Interest Rate Trends - The weighted average rates for various repo codes were reported as follows: R001 at 1.39%, R007 at 1.47%, and R014 at 1.49%, with slight changes in rates over the past 30 days [4]. - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated slightly, starting at 1.7975% and reaching up to 1.806% during the day [5]. Market Sentiment - There is a mixed sentiment in the market regarding the new redemption regulations, with some analysts predicting further market impacts while others believe that the negative effects have already been priced in [6]. - The stock of Pop Mart faced a significant drop of 40% from its recent highs, despite reporting a gross margin of 70% in Q2, indicating a strong performance compared to luxury brands [6].

Core Viewpoint - A live streaming incident occurred in Pop Mart's official channel, leading to a significant drop in its stock price, with the company confirming the event and stating that an investigation is underway but no employees will be dismissed as a result [1]. Group 1 - On November 7, Pop Mart confirmed a live streaming accident in its official channel on a certain platform [1]. - The company is currently conducting an urgent investigation into the incident [1]. - Following the news, Pop Mart's stock price fell over 5%, closing at 205.6 HKD per share on the same day [1].

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities reports that Pop Mart's Q3 performance is strong, with revenue growth of 245% to 250% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company has raised its non-IFRS earnings per share estimates for the next two years by 14% and 12% respectively [1] - The target price for Pop Mart is set at HKD 400, with a reiterated "Buy" rating [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - For Q4, the company is expected to continue launching new products, which will be a key driver of growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's report indicates that Pop Mart's Q3 revenue growth exceeded expectations, with an annual increase of 245% to 250%, driven by strong sales of new products globally and inventory replenishment strategies [1] Revenue Growth - Pop Mart's revenue growth in the Chinese market is projected to be between 185% to 190% year-on-year, while overseas markets are expected to surge by 365% to 370% [1] Future Outlook - Citigroup anticipates that Pop Mart will maintain its positive trend in the upcoming peak season, with holiday performance potentially serving as a short-term catalyst [1] Earnings Forecast - Based on the strength of its IP capabilities, Citigroup has raised its earnings forecasts for Pop Mart for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 by 16.8% to 17.3% [1] Target Price Adjustment - The target price for Pop Mart has been increased from 398 HKD to 415 HKD, reflecting a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 28 times for the next year [1] Investment Recommendation - Citigroup reaffirms a "Buy" rating, suggesting that recent stock price corrections have created better entry opportunities for investors, emphasizing the focus on sales trends due to the rapid sell-out of the brand's proprietary channels [1]

Group 1 - In 2025, China's overseas box office revenue has already exceeded the total for 2024, reaching approximately $140 million, equivalent to around 1 billion RMB [1] - Pop Mart reported a 365%-370% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue for Q3 2025, with overall revenue growth of 245%-250% compared to Q3 2024 [2] - The Guangdong provincial government has released an action plan to empower high-quality development in the manufacturing industry through artificial intelligence from 2025 to 2027, supporting the application of industrial computing power [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce has set the total import quota for fertilizers in 2026 at 13.65 million tons, including 3.3 million tons of urea, 6.9 million tons of diammonium phosphate, and 3.45 million tons of compound fertilizers [2] - The DeepSeek-OCR model has been launched on the supercomputing internet AI community, allowing enterprises and developers to quickly deploy and develop the model [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on expanding its international presence, particularly in the Middle East, South Asia, Latin America, and Russia, while also enhancing its flagship stores in major cities worldwide [1] Group 1: International Expansion - The company plans to open its first store in the Middle East at Doha Airport, aiming to establish a significant presence in the region [1] - Currently, the company operates 140 overseas stores, with expectations to exceed 200 by the end of the year [1] Group 2: Revenue Growth - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue in China reached 8.28 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 135.2% [1] - Revenue from the Asia-Pacific region was 2.85 billion yuan, showing a remarkable growth of 257.8% [1] - The Americas generated revenue of 2.26 billion yuan, with an extraordinary growth rate of 1142.3% [1] - Revenue from Europe and other regions amounted to 480 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 729.2% [1] - All four regions achieved over three-digit growth, with the Americas experiencing a tenfold increase, marking a significant success in the company's internationalization strategy [1]