农林牧渔 农业周报 20260208-20260214：猪价快速调整，粮价稳步上涨 2026 年 02 月 23 日 行业周报 看好/维持 农林牧渔 走势比较 (10%) (2%) 6% 14% 22% 30% 25/2/24 25/5/5 25/7/14 25/9/22 25/12/1 26/2/9 子行业评级 | 种植业 | 无评级 | | --- | --- | | 畜牧业 | 无评级 | | 林业 | 无评级 | | 渔业 | 无评级 | | 农 产 品 加 工 | 无评级 | | Ⅱ | | 推荐公司及评级 | 中宠股份 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 牧原股份 | 买入 | | 苏垦农发 | 买入 | 相关研究报告 <<登海业绩预告点评：降本+转基因 驱动，业绩拐点基本确立>>--2026- 02-11 <<天康业绩预告点评：全产业链韧性 支撑底部企稳，并购驱动扩张>>-- 2026-02-10 <<农业周报 20260201-20260207：一 号文发布，重视农业投资机会>>-- 2026-02-10 证券分析师：程晓东 电话：010-88321761 E-MAIL：chengx ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huachuang Securities indicates that while the industry is facing challenges due to increased competition, there is a stabilization and recovery in the prices of veterinary raw materials and vaccines, driven by innovation among successful companies [1] Vaccine Batch Release - In 2025, most vaccine varieties are expected to see year-on-year growth in batch releases, with new vaccines performing particularly well [1] - Specific growth rates for pig vaccines include: foot-and-mouth disease vaccine +6.4%, porcine circovirus vaccine +13.0%, pseudorabies vaccine +5.1%, swine fever vaccine +11.7%, and porcine enterovirus vaccine +21.3% [1] - For poultry vaccines, notable increases include avian influenza trivalent vaccine +22.8%, Newcastle disease vaccine +8.8%, and duck infectious serositis vaccine +17.3% [1] - The brucellosis vaccine for ruminants saw a significant increase of +61.6%, while the small ruminant plague vaccine decreased by -16.2% [1] - In the pet vaccine sector, domestic rabies vaccine and domestic cat trivalent vaccine increased by +22.1% and +32.3% respectively [1] Subspecies Analysis - In 2025, the economic product porcine circovirus vaccine and the mandatory immunization swine fever vaccine are expected to see faster growth due to increased farming profitability and pig output [2] - The rapid growth of the avian influenza trivalent vaccine and duck infectious serositis vaccine is attributed to heightened awareness of poultry diseases [2] - The brucellosis vaccine continues to maintain high growth rates due to the introduction of new products, while the small ruminant plague vaccine has seen a decline due to a high base from the previous year [2] Pet Vaccine Performance - The domestic cat trivalent vaccine, launched in early 2024, continues to show high growth in 2025 due to effective market promotion and consumer education [3] - Different types of vaccines for the same disease show varied performance, with the single foot-and-mouth disease vaccine decreasing by -0.7% and the multi-valent vaccine increasing by +8.9% [3] - The porcine foot-and-mouth disease OA bivalent vaccine saw a growth of +12.3%, while the porcine circovirus vaccine increased by +19.7% [3] Veterinary Raw Material Prices - In 2025, the Veterinary Product Index (VPI) is expected to rise by 7.2% year-on-year, with significant price increases in macrolide products [4] - Specific price increases include: tylosin +29.5%, tiamulin +11.4%, and tilmicosin +22.9% [4] - However, some products like florfenicol and amoxicillin have seen price declines of -5.9% and -21.0% respectively [4] - The market is anticipated to remain weak in the short term due to ongoing pressures in the farming sector and the traditional off-season for veterinary drugs [4]

Core Viewpoint - The vaccine industry is showing significant growth in the first three quarters of the year, with various vaccine types, including circular, diarrhea, brucellosis, and cat trivalent vaccines, continuing to perform well [1][2] Vaccine Batch Issuance - In the first three quarters, most vaccine types have seen substantial year-on-year growth, with specific increases in pig vaccines such as foot-and-mouth disease (+9.1%), circular vaccine (+29.5%), pseudorabies vaccine (+27.0%), and swine fever vaccine (+17.7%) [1] - Poultry vaccines like avian influenza trivalent vaccine (+9.6%) and Newcastle disease vaccine (+12.4%) also showed stable growth, while brucellosis vaccine experienced a remarkable increase of +60.2% [1][2] - Pet vaccines, particularly domestic rabies vaccine (+22.8%) and domestic cat trivalent vaccine (+74.4%), have maintained high growth rates [1] Factors Driving Growth - The growth in pig vaccines is attributed to multiple factors, including farming profitability, increased pig slaughter rates, and the introduction of new products [2] - The poultry vaccine sector continues to grow steadily, while the brucellosis vaccine benefits from the ongoing launch of new products [2] Veterinary Drug Raw Materials - As of October 22, the Veterinary Pharmaceutical Index (VPI) stands at 69.29, reflecting a 0.1% increase from the end of September and a 6.4% increase year-on-year [3] - The VPI index has shown a positive trend in October, with an average of 69.33, marking a 0.9% increase from September [3][4] Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The price of veterinary raw materials has been on the rise due to tightened supply and increased demand from large orders, particularly for products like tylosin [4] - The overall price increase in veterinary raw materials is driven by a combination of cost factors, corporate strategies, and market demand [4] Investment Recommendations - The industry is gradually recovering from a downturn, with a focus on undervalued companies that exhibit both elasticity and certainty [5] - Companies that have shown strong performance typically possess innovative qualities in product development, marketing strategies, or capital operations [6] - Recommended companies for investment include Ruipu Biological (300119.SZ), Kexin Biological (688526.SH), and others [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the animal health industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [2][82]. Core Insights - The animal health industry has shown significant growth in vaccine issuance, with most vaccine varieties experiencing year-on-year increases in the first three quarters of the year. Key vaccines such as porcine epidemic diarrhea, porcine circovirus, and others have demonstrated strong performance [9][12]. - The Veterinary Product Index (VPI) has shown a continued upward trend in October, indicating a recovery in raw material prices for veterinary drugs after a period of decline [3][58]. - The report highlights that the industry is gradually emerging from a low point, with a focus on undervalued companies that exhibit both elasticity and certainty in their performance [71][72]. Summary by Sections Vaccine Issuance - Cumulative data from January to September shows that most vaccine varieties have experienced significant year-on-year growth, particularly in porcine vaccines, with increases of 9.1% for foot-and-mouth disease vaccine, 29.5% for porcine circovirus vaccine, and 60.2% for brucellosis vaccine [9][12]. - The report notes that the growth in vaccine issuance is driven by multiple factors, including farming profitability, increased slaughter rates, and the introduction of new products [13][14]. Raw Material Prices - As of October 22, the VPI stands at 69.29, reflecting a 0.1% increase from the end of September and a 6.4% increase year-on-year. This marks a recovery after three consecutive months of decline [58][61]. - The report indicates that the prices of most veterinary raw materials have improved, with significant increases noted for products like Tylosin and Amoxicillin [59][61]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that have shown resilience and innovation, such as Reap Bio, Kexin Bio, and others, as they are expected to perform well in the recovering market [71][73]. - It emphasizes that the competitive landscape is shifting, with larger companies likely to outperform smaller ones, leading to potential consolidation in the industry [72][73].

Core Viewpoint - The company held a successful half-year performance briefing on September 19, 2025, with full interaction with investors, addressing various inquiries regarding stock issuance, project updates, and financial performance [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Issuance and Financial Performance - The company has submitted a registration application to the China Securities Regulatory Commission for a stock issuance to specific investors, following the Shanghai Stock Exchange's review [1][2]. - The pricing for the stock issuance will be no less than 80% of the average trading price over the 20 trading days prior to the pricing date [1][2]. - The company reported a significant profit decline in the first half of 2025, primarily due to non-recurring gains from asset disposals in the previous year, which amounted to 156 million [2][3]. Group 2: Project Updates - The trans-aconitic acid green bio-manufacturing project commenced production on May 29, 2025, marking a significant step towards industrialization [1]. - The company has over 60 biological pesticide products in production and sales, with three innovative biological pesticides currently under registration [1][2]. - The trans-aconitic acid pesticide formulation is in the testing phase, with plans to submit registration materials in the first quarter of 2026 [1][2]. Group 3: R&D and Product Development - The company has three I-class innovative drugs in clinical trials: TRN-157 for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Phase II, CIGB-814 for rheumatoid arthritis in Phase I, and CMS-203, a PDE5 inhibitor for male erectile dysfunction in Phase II [2][3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and profitability to improve its investment value amidst a competitive pharmaceutical market [2][3].

Group 1 - Ningxia Taiyixin Biotechnology Co., Ltd. was fined 300,000 yuan for using the second-phase boiler expansion project without acceptance inspection [1] - The second-phase boiler expansion project was approved on August 20, 2019, and involved the construction of three 150t/h boilers and two C16.4MW steam turbine generator sets [1] - The company has faced multiple environmental penalties in the past, indicating a pattern of non-compliance with environmental regulations [1][2] Group 2 - On May 26, 2025, the company was fined 100,000 yuan for non-compliance with pollutant discharge permit regulations [2][3] - The company was also fined 900,000 yuan for illegally storing hazardous waste outdoors [2][4] - Additionally, a fine of 500,000 yuan was imposed for exceeding wastewater discharge standards [2][5] Group 3 - The company was established in 2010, located in Yinchuan, Ningxia, with a registered capital of 768.75 million yuan and total investments nearing 10 billion yuan [5][8] - It focuses on the research, production, and sales of raw materials and formulations in the fields of biomedicine, veterinary medicine, and agricultural pesticides [5] - The company aims to develop into a sustainable international biopharmaceutical production base characterized by technological innovation and environmental safety [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [6][22]. Core Insights - The company has experienced significant growth in its performance for the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 2.452 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.69%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 269 million yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 747.13% [1][9]. - The growth is attributed to rising sales and prices of key products, effective cost control, and increased investment income from affiliated companies [1][9]. - The company has successfully registered several key products in the Brazilian market, which is expected to enhance overseas sales in the coming years [2][17]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.452 billion yuan, a 6.69% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 269 million yuan, a 747.13% increase year-on-year [1][9]. - The second quarter alone saw a net profit of 161 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 49.07% [1][9]. - The pesticide business generated 2.2 billion yuan in revenue, a 4.63% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 26.45%, up 8.71 percentage points [10]. Product Performance - The revenue from fungicides increased by 12.36% year-on-year, while insecticides saw a revenue increase of 5.19% year-on-year [10]. - The market prices for key products such as甲维盐 and 阿维菌素 have risen significantly, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2][18]. - The company has a strong market presence in Brazil, with successful registrations of several key products, which is expected to drive future sales growth [2][17]. New Business Developments - The company has accelerated its new business layout, including the acquisition of a 51% stake in 德彦智创, which focuses on AI-driven pesticide development [3][21]. - Strategic partnerships with various technology companies are being established to develop innovative agricultural products, enhancing the company's growth potential [3][21]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 529 million yuan, 588 million yuan, and 648 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.26 yuan, 1.40 yuan, and 1.54 yuan [4][22]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 17.2, 15.5, and 14.1 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][22].

Summary of Industry and Company Insights from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Agricultural Industry Performance**: The agricultural industry in the first half of 2025 is relatively stable, with grain prices at a low point and pig prices showing a year-on-year recovery, although they are declining on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Poultry prices are affected by weak demand in the catering sector and abundant supply, leading to a continued downturn in the poultry farming sector [2][3]. Key Points on Specific Sectors 1. Pig Farming Industry - **Price and Profitability**: The average pig price is approximately 14.8 yuan per kilogram, down 4.2% year-on-year. However, due to a greater decline in farming costs compared to pig prices, industry profitability has significantly improved, with average profit per head around 70 yuan, compared to a loss of 25 yuan in the same period last year [3][4]. - **Company Performance**: Major companies like Muyuan Foods are expected to report over 10.5 billion yuan in profits for the first half of the year, with a 90% increase in Q2 profits. Other companies like Shennong Group and Wens Foodstuffs are also showing strong profitability despite challenges in certain segments [4]. 2. Poultry Farming Industry - **Current Situation**: The white feather broiler market remains at a low point, with upstream companies benefiting from downstream capacity expansion. However, the price drop in upstream is greater than in downstream. The average selling price of layer chicks has increased by 40% year-on-year to about 4.3 yuan per chick due to supply constraints [5]. - **Financial Performance**: Companies like Shengnong Development expect a 22% year-on-year growth in Q2 performance, while Wens and Lihua are facing losses in the yellow feather chicken segment, averaging losses of 0.2 to 0.3 yuan per bird [5]. 3. Pet Food Market - **Market Dynamics**: The domestic pet food market remains robust, with online GMV growth of 17% in the first five months of 2025, compared to 14% last year. However, companies focused on export OEM are facing declines due to US-China trade tensions, while strong domestic brands are expected to maintain high growth rates [6][9]. - **Company Performance**: Companies like Guibao and Zhongchong are projected to see significant growth, with expected Q2 growth rates of around 40% and 31%, respectively. In contrast, companies heavily reliant on export OEM may see stagnant or slightly declining performance [10]. 4. Feed and Animal Health Sub-Industries - **Sales Growth**: The feed and animal health sectors are benefiting from a recovery in livestock numbers and stable profitability. For instance, Bangji Technology reported over 200% year-on-year growth in feed sales, while Haida Group expects a growth rate of 25% to 30% [7]. - **Vaccine Demand**: There has been a recovery in vaccine demand, with prices for certain products like Tylosin and Tiamulin increasing by 30% and 10%, respectively. Companies like Keqian Bio are expected to see a 20% to 25% growth in Q2 performance [8]. Recommendations for Investment - **Investment Focus**: Recommendations include focusing on post-cycle breeding varieties, feed, and animal health sectors. Key companies to watch include Bangji Technology, Haida Group, and leading vaccine producers like Keqian Bio and Huisheng Bio. Attention should also be given to low-valuation leading breeding companies with strong performance [11]. - **Market Outlook**: If the pig farming sector can stabilize and avoid overproduction, there is significant potential for valuation increases in the industry, particularly for companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The company's profitability is continuously improving, with the 2025 Q1 net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 44.497 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 371.23% [26]. - The company will adjust resource allocation, increase investment in pet drug R & D and market channel construction, and regard the pet drug sector as one of the key development directions [27]. - The company will continue to increase R & D and technological innovation investment, deepen the "raw material - preparation integration" strategy, improve the pet business layout, and actively explore overseas markets [27][30]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Research Basic Situation - Research object: Huisheng Biotechnology [16] - Industry: Pesticides and veterinary drugs [16] - Reception time: June 12, 2025 [16] - Reception personnel: Chairman Zhang Weiyuan, Deputy General Manager and Financial Controller Yang Kaijie, Board Secretary Wang Qingfeng [16] 3.2. Detailed Research Institutions - Reception object: Investors participating in the 2025 collective investor reception day event of listed companies in Hubei Province and the 2024 annual performance briefing online [19] - Reception object type: Others [19] 3.3. Main Content Data - **Export of raw materials**: In 2024, the company's raw material exports achieved sales revenue of 63.3903 million yuan (excluding trade exports), a year - on - year increase of 155.71%, covering more than 20 countries and regions. In Q1 2025, the export revenue decreased by 10.92% quarter - on - quarter compared with Q4 2024. The company is actively exploring overseas markets, and the current raw material export business is normal [23][29]. - **Vietnam project**: The Vietnam production base has obtained production approvals and veterinary drug sales licenses for some products, mainly produces chemical preparation products, with a designed annual production capacity of 1,500 tons [23][25]. - **Pet business**: The company's pet business has formed a relatively complete product matrix, with a small proportion of revenue but maintaining a good growth trend. The company will increase investment in this area, use a combination of online and offline methods for business expansion, and its pet drugs participated in some 6.18 activities [23][25][27]. - **Product price**: The price of tylosin is affected by many factors, and its future price change is uncertain. The change in raw material product prices will have a certain impact on the company's operating performance, but the price change is also uncertain [23][25]. - **Raw materials**: The company's self - produced raw materials are tiamulin and tylosin, and it does not produce tiamulin and oxytetracycline raw materials [26]. - **Convertible bond redemption**: The company's early redemption of convertible bonds is mainly for three reasons: high interest rates affecting net profit, improved profitability, and the need to create conditions for continuous dividends [26]. - **Company development plan**: The company will continue to increase R & D investment, focus on new veterinary drug development, deepen the "raw material - preparation integration" strategy, improve the pet business layout, and actively explore overseas markets [27][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the animal health industry, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [79]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth in vaccine approvals for circular, pseudorabies, and diarrhea vaccines, with notable year-on-year increases [7][8]. - The animal drug raw material market shows a continued strong performance in macrolide products, with price indices reflecting a structural differentiation among various products [52][53]. - The overall demand for animal health products is expected to recover, driven by improved profitability in the breeding sector and the introduction of new products [68][69]. Summary by Sections Vaccine Approvals - In April, major vaccine varieties for pigs showed substantial year-on-year growth, with circular vaccine up by 71.2%, pseudorabies vaccine by 73.3%, and diarrhea vaccine by 220% [7][8]. - Cumulative data from January to April indicates most vaccine types experienced significant growth, particularly in pig vaccines, with circular vaccine up by 52.3% and pseudorabies vaccine by 48.2% [8][9]. Raw Material Prices - As of the end of April, the Veterinary Pharmaceutical Index (VPI) was 69.2, reflecting a 5.6% increase from the previous month and a 13.4% increase year-on-year [52][53]. - Prices for macrolide products such as Tylosin, Tylvalosin, and Tilmicosin have shown strong performance, with increases of 10.1%, 17.6%, and 15.4% respectively compared to the end of March [53][54]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a stable upward trend in the demand for animal health products, supported by a robust breeding sector and ongoing product innovation [68][69]. - The competitive landscape is expected to lead to a dual recovery in performance and valuation for the sector, with a focus on larger companies that can leverage their financial strength and product diversity [69][70]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Reap Bio, Kexin Bio, and others, which are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated market recovery [68][70].