行业产能去化动力持续增强，去化速度或加快。我国养猪行业产能近期略有下降，总体处于近年来较高 水平。据统计局数据，截至9月末，全国能繁母猪存栏4035万头，较上月末少3万头，较去年末高点少37 万头。行业连续10周亏损，且近期处于中度亏损状态。上周末，主产区自繁自养头均亏损135元，较前 一周多亏21元。 草根调研来看，由于前期全国大部地区雨水较往年同期明显增多，不利于非瘟疫情防控，养殖业所面临 的疫情风险上升。自6月份以来，相关部门密集召开会议释放减产能的明确政策信号，政策方面值得重 点关注。我国养猪业目前面临着"市场价格下跌+疫情风险上升+政策施压"的三重压力，行业去产能动 力预计将逐渐增强。 太平洋证券发布研报称，养猪行业连续10周亏损，且近期处于中度亏损状态。上周末，主产区自繁自养 头均亏损135元，较前一周多亏21元。由于前期全国大部地区雨水较往年同期明显增多，不利于非瘟疫 情防控，养殖业所面临的疫情风险上升。自6月份以来，相关部门密集召开会议释放减产能的明确政策 信号，政策方面值得重点关注。我国养猪业目前面临着"市场价格下跌+疫情风险上升+政策施压"的三 重压力，行业去产能动力预计将逐渐增强。 太平 ...

Group 1: Swine Industry - The swine industry in China is currently facing three pressures: declining market prices, rising epidemic risks, and policy guidance, leading to an increased motivation for capacity reduction [1][2] - As of the end of September, the number of breeding sows in China was 40.35 million, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous month and 370,000 from the peak at the end of last year [2] - The average price of live pigs was 11.91 yuan/kg, down 0.58 yuan from the previous week, while the average price of piglets increased to 23.62 yuan/kg, up 0.48 yuan [1][2] Group 2: Poultry Industry - The price of broiler chickens is currently fluctuating at low levels, with the average price of broiler chickens at 3.53 yuan/kg, while the average price of white feather broiler chickens is 13.8 yuan/kg [3] - The poultry industry is experiencing high production capacity, with the number of breeding chickens at historical highs, leading to increased supply and potential price stabilization in the medium term [3] - The yellow chicken prices have been relatively high due to seasonal demand recovery, with prices for Wen's yellow chicken at 13.33 yuan/kg and Lihua yellow chicken at 12.58 yuan/kg [4] Group 3: Animal Health Industry - The animal health industry has seen a recovery in market conditions since the beginning of the year, with major companies expected to report positive third-quarter results [6] - Prices for key antibiotics have remained high, with products like Tiamulin and Tylosin showing price increases compared to the first quarter [6] - There is a notable increase in sales of domestic cat trivalent vaccines, indicating growth potential in the market as domestic alternatives become more prevalent [6]

Core Viewpoint - The vaccine industry is showing significant growth in the first three quarters of the year, with various vaccine types, including circular, diarrhea, brucellosis, and cat trivalent vaccines, continuing to perform well [1][2] Vaccine Batch Issuance - In the first three quarters, most vaccine types have seen substantial year-on-year growth, with specific increases in pig vaccines such as foot-and-mouth disease (+9.1%), circular vaccine (+29.5%), pseudorabies vaccine (+27.0%), and swine fever vaccine (+17.7%) [1] - Poultry vaccines like avian influenza trivalent vaccine (+9.6%) and Newcastle disease vaccine (+12.4%) also showed stable growth, while brucellosis vaccine experienced a remarkable increase of +60.2% [1][2] - Pet vaccines, particularly domestic rabies vaccine (+22.8%) and domestic cat trivalent vaccine (+74.4%), have maintained high growth rates [1] Factors Driving Growth - The growth in pig vaccines is attributed to multiple factors, including farming profitability, increased pig slaughter rates, and the introduction of new products [2] - The poultry vaccine sector continues to grow steadily, while the brucellosis vaccine benefits from the ongoing launch of new products [2] Veterinary Drug Raw Materials - As of October 22, the Veterinary Pharmaceutical Index (VPI) stands at 69.29, reflecting a 0.1% increase from the end of September and a 6.4% increase year-on-year [3] - The VPI index has shown a positive trend in October, with an average of 69.33, marking a 0.9% increase from September [3][4] Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The price of veterinary raw materials has been on the rise due to tightened supply and increased demand from large orders, particularly for products like tylosin [4] - The overall price increase in veterinary raw materials is driven by a combination of cost factors, corporate strategies, and market demand [4] Investment Recommendations - The industry is gradually recovering from a downturn, with a focus on undervalued companies that exhibit both elasticity and certainty [5] - Companies that have shown strong performance typically possess innovative qualities in product development, marketing strategies, or capital operations [6] - Recommended companies for investment include Ruipu Biological (300119.SZ), Kexin Biological (688526.SH), and others [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the animal health industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [2][82]. Core Insights - The animal health industry has shown significant growth in vaccine issuance, with most vaccine varieties experiencing year-on-year increases in the first three quarters of the year. Key vaccines such as porcine epidemic diarrhea, porcine circovirus, and others have demonstrated strong performance [9][12]. - The Veterinary Product Index (VPI) has shown a continued upward trend in October, indicating a recovery in raw material prices for veterinary drugs after a period of decline [3][58]. - The report highlights that the industry is gradually emerging from a low point, with a focus on undervalued companies that exhibit both elasticity and certainty in their performance [71][72]. Summary by Sections Vaccine Issuance - Cumulative data from January to September shows that most vaccine varieties have experienced significant year-on-year growth, particularly in porcine vaccines, with increases of 9.1% for foot-and-mouth disease vaccine, 29.5% for porcine circovirus vaccine, and 60.2% for brucellosis vaccine [9][12]. - The report notes that the growth in vaccine issuance is driven by multiple factors, including farming profitability, increased slaughter rates, and the introduction of new products [13][14]. Raw Material Prices - As of October 22, the VPI stands at 69.29, reflecting a 0.1% increase from the end of September and a 6.4% increase year-on-year. This marks a recovery after three consecutive months of decline [58][61]. - The report indicates that the prices of most veterinary raw materials have improved, with significant increases noted for products like Tylosin and Amoxicillin [59][61]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that have shown resilience and innovation, such as Reap Bio, Kexin Bio, and others, as they are expected to perform well in the recovering market [71][73]. - It emphasizes that the competitive landscape is shifting, with larger companies likely to outperform smaller ones, leading to potential consolidation in the industry [72][73].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the animal health industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [81]. Core Insights - The animal health industry is gradually emerging from a low point, with a focus on undervalued companies that exhibit both elasticity and certainty. The report highlights that the ongoing internal competition has led to a market cleanup, with a recovery in the prices of veterinary raw materials and significant improvements in the year-on-year issuance of various vaccine types [70][71]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation in companies that have performed well, whether through product innovation, marketing strategies, or capital operations, which is reflected in their financial performance [70][71]. Summary by Sections Vaccine Issuance - In the first eight months of the year, most vaccine types showed significant year-on-year growth, particularly in swine vaccines such as foot-and-mouth disease vaccine (+11.0%), porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome vaccine (+38.1%), and others. The report notes that the cat tri-vaccine saw a remarkable increase of +78.9% [10][11][9]. - The report indicates that the growth in vaccine issuance is driven by multiple factors, including the continued prosperity of farming, increased livestock inventory, disease outbreaks, and the introduction of new products [11][10]. Veterinary Raw Materials - As of September, the Veterinary Price Index (VPI) was reported at 69.22, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.0% and a year-on-year increase of 8.7%. This marks the first month-on-month increase after three consecutive months of decline [56][59]. - The report highlights that the price of various veterinary raw materials has improved, with significant increases in the prices of products like tiamulin and florfenicol, driven by supply constraints and increased demand [56][59]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are undervalued yet possess strong growth potential, such as RuiPu Biological, KeQian Biological, and others. It notes that the competitive landscape is shifting, with larger companies outperforming smaller ones, indicating a potential for market consolidation in the future [70][71].

Investment Rating - The overall industry investment rating is "Positive" [48] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the impact of anti-involution policies on capacity regulation, which is beneficial for the livestock industry [6][22] - The agricultural sector has shown strong performance, with the agricultural index rising by 3.61% compared to the broader market indices [27] - The report highlights the long-term investment value of companies in the livestock sector, as their valuations are at historical lows [23] Summary by Relevant Sections Livestock Industry - **Swine**: The national average price for live pigs is 14.12 CNY/kg, down 0.15 CNY from last week. The average price for 15 kg piglets is 33.86 CNY/kg, down 0.17 CNY [6][22] - **Poultry**: The average price for white feather broilers is 3.35 CNY/lb, up 0.15 CNY from last week. The average price for white chickens is 13.7 CNY/kg, up 0.3 CNY [9][22] - **Yellow Chickens**: The average price for yellow chickens is 9.79 CNY/kg, down 0.88 CNY from last month. The industry is experiencing a rise in production capacity [10][25] - **Animal Health**: The animal health industry is recovering from a low point, with significant performance improvements noted in major companies [11][25] Planting Industry - **Seed Industry**: Policies are continuously improving, and the commercialization of genetically modified technology is accelerating, which is expected to boost sales and prices for quality seed companies [12][26] - **Planting**: Grain prices are experiencing short-term adjustments, with corn averaging 2441 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY from last week, while wheat is at 2442 CNY/ton, up 1 CNY [13][26] Recommended Companies - **Buy Ratings**: - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. [4] - Muyuan Foods [4] - Suqian Agricultural Development [4]

Summary of Industry and Company Insights from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Agricultural Industry Performance**: The agricultural industry in the first half of 2025 is relatively stable, with grain prices at a low point and pig prices showing a year-on-year recovery, although they are declining on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Poultry prices are affected by weak demand in the catering sector and abundant supply, leading to a continued downturn in the poultry farming sector [2][3]. Key Points on Specific Sectors 1. Pig Farming Industry - **Price and Profitability**: The average pig price is approximately 14.8 yuan per kilogram, down 4.2% year-on-year. However, due to a greater decline in farming costs compared to pig prices, industry profitability has significantly improved, with average profit per head around 70 yuan, compared to a loss of 25 yuan in the same period last year [3][4]. - **Company Performance**: Major companies like Muyuan Foods are expected to report over 10.5 billion yuan in profits for the first half of the year, with a 90% increase in Q2 profits. Other companies like Shennong Group and Wens Foodstuffs are also showing strong profitability despite challenges in certain segments [4]. 2. Poultry Farming Industry - **Current Situation**: The white feather broiler market remains at a low point, with upstream companies benefiting from downstream capacity expansion. However, the price drop in upstream is greater than in downstream. The average selling price of layer chicks has increased by 40% year-on-year to about 4.3 yuan per chick due to supply constraints [5]. - **Financial Performance**: Companies like Shengnong Development expect a 22% year-on-year growth in Q2 performance, while Wens and Lihua are facing losses in the yellow feather chicken segment, averaging losses of 0.2 to 0.3 yuan per bird [5]. 3. Pet Food Market - **Market Dynamics**: The domestic pet food market remains robust, with online GMV growth of 17% in the first five months of 2025, compared to 14% last year. However, companies focused on export OEM are facing declines due to US-China trade tensions, while strong domestic brands are expected to maintain high growth rates [6][9]. - **Company Performance**: Companies like Guibao and Zhongchong are projected to see significant growth, with expected Q2 growth rates of around 40% and 31%, respectively. In contrast, companies heavily reliant on export OEM may see stagnant or slightly declining performance [10]. 4. Feed and Animal Health Sub-Industries - **Sales Growth**: The feed and animal health sectors are benefiting from a recovery in livestock numbers and stable profitability. For instance, Bangji Technology reported over 200% year-on-year growth in feed sales, while Haida Group expects a growth rate of 25% to 30% [7]. - **Vaccine Demand**: There has been a recovery in vaccine demand, with prices for certain products like Tylosin and Tiamulin increasing by 30% and 10%, respectively. Companies like Keqian Bio are expected to see a 20% to 25% growth in Q2 performance [8]. Recommendations for Investment - **Investment Focus**: Recommendations include focusing on post-cycle breeding varieties, feed, and animal health sectors. Key companies to watch include Bangji Technology, Haida Group, and leading vaccine producers like Keqian Bio and Huisheng Bio. Attention should also be given to low-valuation leading breeding companies with strong performance [11]. - **Market Outlook**: If the pig farming sector can stabilize and avoid overproduction, there is significant potential for valuation increases in the industry, particularly for companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The company's profitability is continuously improving, with the 2025 Q1 net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 44.497 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 371.23% [26]. - The company will adjust resource allocation, increase investment in pet drug R & D and market channel construction, and regard the pet drug sector as one of the key development directions [27]. - The company will continue to increase R & D and technological innovation investment, deepen the "raw material - preparation integration" strategy, improve the pet business layout, and actively explore overseas markets [27][30]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Research Basic Situation - Research object: Huisheng Biotechnology [16] - Industry: Pesticides and veterinary drugs [16] - Reception time: June 12, 2025 [16] - Reception personnel: Chairman Zhang Weiyuan, Deputy General Manager and Financial Controller Yang Kaijie, Board Secretary Wang Qingfeng [16] 3.2. Detailed Research Institutions - Reception object: Investors participating in the 2025 collective investor reception day event of listed companies in Hubei Province and the 2024 annual performance briefing online [19] - Reception object type: Others [19] 3.3. Main Content Data - **Export of raw materials**: In 2024, the company's raw material exports achieved sales revenue of 63.3903 million yuan (excluding trade exports), a year - on - year increase of 155.71%, covering more than 20 countries and regions. In Q1 2025, the export revenue decreased by 10.92% quarter - on - quarter compared with Q4 2024. The company is actively exploring overseas markets, and the current raw material export business is normal [23][29]. - **Vietnam project**: The Vietnam production base has obtained production approvals and veterinary drug sales licenses for some products, mainly produces chemical preparation products, with a designed annual production capacity of 1,500 tons [23][25]. - **Pet business**: The company's pet business has formed a relatively complete product matrix, with a small proportion of revenue but maintaining a good growth trend. The company will increase investment in this area, use a combination of online and offline methods for business expansion, and its pet drugs participated in some 6.18 activities [23][25][27]. - **Product price**: The price of tylosin is affected by many factors, and its future price change is uncertain. The change in raw material product prices will have a certain impact on the company's operating performance, but the price change is also uncertain [23][25]. - **Raw materials**: The company's self - produced raw materials are tiamulin and tylosin, and it does not produce tiamulin and oxytetracycline raw materials [26]. - **Convertible bond redemption**: The company's early redemption of convertible bonds is mainly for three reasons: high interest rates affecting net profit, improved profitability, and the need to create conditions for continuous dividends [26]. - **Company development plan**: The company will continue to increase R & D investment, focus on new veterinary drug development, deepen the "raw material - preparation integration" strategy, improve the pet business layout, and actively explore overseas markets [27][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the animal health industry, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [79]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth in vaccine approvals for circular, pseudorabies, and diarrhea vaccines, with notable year-on-year increases [7][8]. - The animal drug raw material market shows a continued strong performance in macrolide products, with price indices reflecting a structural differentiation among various products [52][53]. - The overall demand for animal health products is expected to recover, driven by improved profitability in the breeding sector and the introduction of new products [68][69]. Summary by Sections Vaccine Approvals - In April, major vaccine varieties for pigs showed substantial year-on-year growth, with circular vaccine up by 71.2%, pseudorabies vaccine by 73.3%, and diarrhea vaccine by 220% [7][8]. - Cumulative data from January to April indicates most vaccine types experienced significant growth, particularly in pig vaccines, with circular vaccine up by 52.3% and pseudorabies vaccine by 48.2% [8][9]. Raw Material Prices - As of the end of April, the Veterinary Pharmaceutical Index (VPI) was 69.2, reflecting a 5.6% increase from the previous month and a 13.4% increase year-on-year [52][53]. - Prices for macrolide products such as Tylosin, Tylvalosin, and Tilmicosin have shown strong performance, with increases of 10.1%, 17.6%, and 15.4% respectively compared to the end of March [53][54]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a stable upward trend in the demand for animal health products, supported by a robust breeding sector and ongoing product innovation [68][69]. - The competitive landscape is expected to lead to a dual recovery in performance and valuation for the sector, with a focus on larger companies that can leverage their financial strength and product diversity [69][70]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Reap Bio, Kexin Bio, and others, which are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated market recovery [68][70].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][20]. Core Viewpoints - The company reported a significant increase in Q1 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders, which rose by 512% year-on-year, driven by the release of raw material production capacity and rising market prices [1][8]. - The company's Q1 2025 revenue reached 399 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 92.96%, attributed to the recovery of cash flow in the downstream breeding industry and improved demand for animal health products [1][8]. - The company is undergoing technical upgrades to expand raw material production capacity, which is expected to strengthen its market position and support long-term revenue growth in the raw material segment [3][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 44 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 61.79% and a year-on-year increase of 371.23% [1][8]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 24.28%, up 1.81 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 11.22%, an increase of 19.15 percentage points year-on-year [2][12]. - The operating cash flow for Q1 2025 accounted for 14.52% of revenue, reflecting a year-on-year improvement of 36.90 percentage points [18]. Production Capacity and Market Position - The company is currently implementing technical upgrades to increase the annual production capacity of Tylosin from 2,000 tons to 3,000 tons and Tiamulin from 840 tons to 2,000 tons [3][20]. - The recovery in the breeding industry has led to a restoration of cash flow, which has positively impacted the sales volume and pricing of the company's products [1][8]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 147 million yuan for 2025, 188 million yuan for 2026, and 214 million yuan for 2027, with corresponding earnings per share of 0.89 yuan, 1.13 yuan, and 1.29 yuan respectively [20][22].