执业证书编号：S0740524120002 复盘日本咖啡发展，现制咖啡为即饮咖啡起到带动作用 饮料乳品 执业证书编号：S0740522030001 Email：hect@zts.com.cn Email：tianhc@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 520.01 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 520.01 | | 市价(元) | 253.36 | | 市值(百万元) | 131,750.49 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 131,750.49 | 1、《从日本小瓶能量饮料看中国能量 饮料发展》2026-01-18 2026-01-14 用端优化明显》2025-10-27 东鹏饮料（605499.SH） 证券研究报告/公司研究简报 2026 年 01 月 25 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | ...

截止到2025 年11 月东鹏饮料旗下"东鹏大咖"以接近14%的市场份额跻身行业前三，与雀巢、星巴克形 成"三足鼎立"格局，2024 年12 月-2025 年11 月期间其销售额同比增速多次超50%，部分月份增幅超 100%。随着咖啡市场的进一步细分，现制咖啡与即饮咖啡将逐步形成差异化竞争格局，共同推动中国 咖啡市场的持续扩容 当前现制咖啡行业已进入本土品牌主导的规模化阶段，瑞幸、库迪等凭借"外卖+数字化"模式优化效 率、降低门槛，通过大数据匹配需求、推出爆款，叠加规模化采购降本，带动15 元以下价格带咖啡占 比提升。2024 年中国人均年咖啡消费量达22.24杯，较2023 年的16.74 杯明显增长，中国人均咖啡消费 首次突破20 杯。。 现制咖啡不仅扩容整体市场，更培育出成熟消费群体，为即饮咖啡带来庞大潜在用户。 竞争格局方面，即饮咖啡从外资垄断演变为雀巢、星巴克与本土东鹏饮料"三足鼎立"。 日本作为咖啡消费成熟市场，其现制咖啡与即饮咖啡的发展路径具参照价值。 现制咖啡在日本历经四轮迭代：早期欧美风格传统咖啡馆完成消费启蒙，聚焦高端小众圈层；本土连锁 品牌凭借口味适配与亲民定价推动大众化扩容；消费升级催 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage is expected to achieve a net profit of 4.34 billion to 4.59 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.46% to 37.97%, with revenue projected to exceed 20.7 billion yuan, an increase of over 31% [1][2] Group 1: Company Growth and Strategy - Dongpeng Beverage's growth trajectory aligns with China's economic support for the real economy and the promotion of national brands, benefiting from a nationwide strategy and deep channel penetration [2] - The company has established over 4.3 million terminal outlets, covering nearly 100% of prefecture-level cities in China, which reflects the vitality of domestic demand and market depth [2] - Dongpeng's growth demonstrates how a brand can build a solid foundation through a deep understanding of the local market and refined operations in a large-scale market like China [2] Group 2: Industry Trends and Market Positioning - The global functional beverage market is evolving from a focus on "energy and fatigue relief" to a health-oriented, scenario-based, and segmented "function+" ecosystem [3] - In China, the market is shifting from scale expansion to value cultivation, with rapid growth in subcategories like electrolyte water, sugar-free tea, and energy coffee, driven by the diverse consumption scenarios of the Z generation [3] - Dongpeng Beverage is capitalizing on this structural opportunity by solidifying its leading position in energy drinks while expanding its product lines to include electrolyte water and other health-oriented beverages [3][8] Group 3: Digital and Strategic Innovations - Dongpeng Beverage has implemented a digital strategy that enhances channel management and operational efficiency, addressing traditional industry challenges such as information gaps and inventory issues [6] - The company has developed a comprehensive digital ecosystem that allows for precise marketing and promotional efforts, ensuring effective resource allocation and channel profitability [6] - The strategic expansion into multiple product categories is based on a thorough analysis of consumer needs, particularly targeting the lifestyle of younger demographics [7] Group 4: Global Expansion and Future Outlook - Dongpeng Beverage's products are currently exported to over 30 countries and regions, with overseas subsidiaries established in Indonesia and Vietnam to explore localized operations [8] - The upcoming factory in Indonesia is a crucial step in replicating its supply chain capabilities overseas, supporting its global strategy [8] - The company's future plans include leveraging capital market opportunities to expand its successful business model in Southeast Asia and other emerging markets, transitioning from "China's Dongpeng" to "World's Dongpeng" [8]

Core Insights - A leading beverage company in China has proactively lowered its growth target for 2026, indicating a significant reduction compared to its historical growth rates, while simultaneously pursuing aggressive expansion plans, suggesting the initiation of a "price war" [1][3] - Another major beverage player has announced a clear and aggressive strategy for the coming year, focusing on expanding market share through "internal competition" and seeking breakthroughs in new categories via price wars [1][3] Price War Dynamics - Historical trends show that when industry giants initiate internal competition, it often compels other players to follow suit, leading to a downward spiral into price wars [3] - The price decline in the beverage market has already begun to manifest, with average prices for sugar-free tea and "health water" dropping from approximately 5.6 yuan and 0.9 yuan per 100ml in 2023 to about 5.15 yuan and 0.86 yuan in 2025 [4][6] Pricing Strategies - New products in the health beverage category launched in the first half of the year have an average price of about 5 yuan per bottle, a 12% decrease from the 2024 average of 5.7 yuan [6] - Promotions such as "second bottle for 1 yuan" have led to actual transaction prices for health beverages dropping to between 3 and 5.5 yuan per bottle, representing a decline of over 40% [6] - The bottled water sector is also experiencing price reductions, with major brands like Nongfu Spring and Wahaha temporarily pausing before second-tier brands like Master Kong and Yili continue to push low-price strategies [8] Market Sentiment and Consumer Behavior - Distributors are feeling the impact of price reductions directly, with reports indicating that previously popular beverages priced at 6-8 yuan are now generally below 5 yuan [10] - The shift in pricing power from distributors to brand owners is evident, as brands are forced to lower prices to maintain market share and relationships with distributors amid high inventory levels [10][12] Promotional Tactics - Brands are employing sophisticated pricing strategies, including large packaging and "one yuan exchange" promotions, to capture market share without directly undermining existing price structures [12][15] - Some companies have officially announced price reductions by launching newly priced products, such as a major international cola brand introducing a 400ml product priced lower than its previous 500ml offerings [15] Industry Outlook - The signals from industry giants indicate that the beverage sector will become increasingly competitive in 2026, with price wars expected to be a primary battleground [16][20] - The ongoing price war is likely to impact all segments of the supply chain, including small brands, distributors, and consumers, with potential negative consequences for profit margins and product quality [20][22]

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage is making a second attempt to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to support its international business expansion after its initial application was invalidated in April 2023. The company has experienced rapid growth since its A-share listing in 2021, becoming the "first stock in functional beverages" in China [3][4]. Financial Performance - Dongpeng Beverage's revenue from 2022 to 2025 is projected to be 85 billion, 112.57 billion, and 158.3 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 21.81%, 32.44%, and 40.62% respectively. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 107.37 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 36.37% and a net profit of 23.75 billion yuan, up 37.22% [3][4]. - As of October 17, 2025, Dongpeng's market capitalization reached 156.7 billion yuan, with the founder's family wealth significantly increasing, ranking among the top in Shenzhen [3][4]. Strategic Focus - The company emphasizes growth as its primary strategy, with a focus on diversifying its product offerings beyond its flagship Dongpeng Special Drink. New products like "Brew Water" and "Dongpeng Coffee" have been introduced to reduce reliance on core products [4][6]. - Dongpeng's overseas revenue currently accounts for only 0.2%, with significant competition from established international brands in Southeast Asia [6][7]. Market Positioning - Dongpeng Beverage has successfully differentiated itself in a highly competitive market by targeting price-sensitive consumers and focusing on under-served segments. The introduction of Dongpeng Special Drink in 2009, with a lower price point and unique packaging, allowed it to capture significant market share [10][11]. - From 2012 to 2021, Dongpeng's market share increased from 4.7% to 16.7%, while Red Bull's share decreased from 82.1% to 53.3% [17]. Digital Transformation - Dongpeng has integrated digitalization into its operations, enhancing its marketing and sales strategies. The company began its digital initiatives in 2015, utilizing QR codes for promotions and consumer engagement [20][21]. - The digital system allows real-time tracking of sales data, enabling the company to respond quickly to market changes, which is seen as a competitive advantage in the beverage industry [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage's revenue is heavily reliant on energy drinks, accounting for at least 70% of its income, which raises concerns about its product diversification despite strong financial performance [2][3][5]. Financial Performance - Dongpeng Beverage's revenue and profit have shown an upward trend during the reporting period, with revenues of 85 billion RMB, 112.57 billion RMB, 158.3 billion RMB, and 107.32 billion RMB, and profits of 14.41 billion RMB, 20.4 billion RMB, 33.26 billion RMB, and 23.75 billion RMB respectively [4][11]. - The compound annual growth rates for revenue and profit from 2022 to 2024 are 36.47% and 51.92% respectively [4]. Dividend Policy - The company has distributed a total of 54 billion RMB in dividends during the reporting period, which represents 58.81% of its total profit of 91.82 billion RMB [5][7]. - The dividend amounts for the years were 8 billion RMB, 10 billion RMB, 23 billion RMB, and 13 billion RMB [5]. IPO and Fundraising - Dongpeng Beverage is pursuing an IPO in Hong Kong to raise funds for capacity expansion, supply chain upgrades, brand building, and market expansion, despite having substantial cash reserves [7][8]. - As of the end of 2023, the company had over 60 billion RMB in cash and cash equivalents, and projected to exceed 100 billion RMB in cash-like assets by 2024 and the first half of 2025 [8][10]. Market Position - According to Frost & Sullivan, Dongpeng Beverage has maintained its position as the leading functional beverage brand in China by sales volume for four consecutive years, with a market share of 26.3% in 2024 [5].

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage is pursuing a secondary listing in Hong Kong to support its international business development needs after its initial application was invalidated earlier this year [2][3]. Financial Performance - Dongpeng Beverage's revenue has shown significant growth since its A-share listing in 2021, with revenues of 8.5 billion yuan, 11.257 billion yuan, and 15.83 billion yuan projected for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 21.81%, 32.44%, and 40.62% [3]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 10.737 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 36.37% and a net profit of 2.375 billion yuan, up 37.22% [3]. - As of October 17, 2025, Dongpeng Beverage's market capitalization reached 156.7 billion yuan [3]. Market Position and Strategy - Dongpeng Beverage has been recognized as the "first stock of functional beverages" in China and has maintained a leading position in the market, with a market share increase from 15.0% in 2021 to 26.3% in 2024 [13]. - The company has diversified its product offerings beyond its flagship Dongpeng Special Drink, introducing new products like "Brew Water" and "Dongpeng Coffee" to reduce reliance on its core product [7]. - Despite its growth, Dongpeng's overseas revenue remains low at only 0.2%, facing competition from established international brands like Red Bull and Monster in Southeast Asia [7]. Leadership and Management - Lin Muqin, the chairman and president of Dongpeng Beverage, emphasizes growth as the company's primary strategy, which is deeply ingrained in the corporate culture [4][5]. - Lin's hands-on approach includes monitoring product visibility in the market, such as counting Dongpeng beverage bottles in service areas [5]. - The company has adopted a digital transformation strategy, integrating digital tools into its operations to enhance efficiency and consumer engagement [14][15]. Historical Context - Dongpeng Beverage was founded in 1997 and initially struggled with low revenue, but a pivotal moment came in 2003 when Lin Muqin acquired the company and shifted its focus to functional beverages [8][9]. - The launch of Dongpeng Special Drink in 2009, with a competitive pricing strategy, allowed the company to capture market share from established competitors like Red Bull [9][10]. - By 2018, Dongpeng's revenue began to double, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 20% from 2018 to 2022 [13].

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage, known as the "first stock of functional drinks" in the A-share market, is focusing on its upcoming Hong Kong listing while addressing concerns about its reliance on a single product, Dongpeng Special Drink, which significantly impacts its revenue and market position [2][10]. Group 1: Hong Kong Listing - Dongpeng Beverage announced its plan to list in Hong Kong in March 2023, with the application submitted in April and updated in October [2]. - If successful, Dongpeng Beverage will become the second Chinese beverage company to achieve dual listing in A+H after Andeli Juice [2]. Group 2: International Expansion Strategy - The purpose of the Hong Kong listing is to enhance capital strength, competitiveness, and international brand image, supporting the company's global strategy [3]. - Funds raised will be used to establish supply chain infrastructure in key overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, to meet local demand and facilitate localized operations [3][13]. - Dongpeng Beverage aims to explore potential investments and acquisitions to expand its overseas market presence, with a focus on Southeast Asia initially and plans to gradually enter the U.S. market [3][11]. Group 3: Market Competition and Challenges - The Southeast Asian functional beverage market is highly competitive, with local and international brands posing challenges in market share and brand recognition [4]. - Dongpeng Beverage is working on building localized logistics and sales networks to transition from cross-border sales to local operations [4]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Product Dependency - In 2024, Dongpeng Beverage reported revenue of approximately 15.839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.63%, with net profit reaching about 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.09% [8]. - The company heavily relies on Dongpeng Special Drink, which contributed over 80% of its revenue, raising concerns about its dependency on a single product [10]. - Efforts are being made to diversify the product portfolio, with the introduction of new products like electrolyte water and coffee drinks, aiming to reduce reliance on energy drinks [11]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Dongpeng Beverage is actively pursuing a multi-category strategy to mitigate the risks associated with its "hit product dependency" and enhance its market presence across various beverage segments [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage is making a second attempt to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to support its international business development after an initial application failed in April 2023 [2][4]. Financial Performance - Dongpeng Beverage's revenue has shown rapid growth, with figures of 8.5 billion yuan in 2022, 11.257 billion yuan in 2023, and projected 15.83 billion yuan in 2024, representing year-on-year growth rates of 21.81%, 32.44%, and 40.62% respectively [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 10.737 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.37%, and a net profit of 2.375 billion yuan, up 37.22% [2]. - As of October 17, 2025, Dongpeng's market capitalization reached 156.7 billion yuan [2]. Market Position and Strategy - Dongpeng Beverage has become the "first stock of functional beverages" in China after its successful A-share listing in 2021 [2]. - The company has been focusing on diversifying its product offerings beyond its flagship Dongpeng Special Drink, with new products like "Brew Water" and "Dongpeng Big Coffee" to reduce reliance on core products [7]. - Despite its growth, Dongpeng's overseas revenue remains low at only 0.2%, facing competition from established international brands like Red Bull and Monster in Southeast Asia [7]. Leadership and Company Culture - Lin Muqin, the chairman and president of Dongpeng Beverage, emphasizes growth as the company's primary strategy, which is deeply ingrained in the corporate culture [5][6]. - Lin's hands-on approach includes monitoring product presence in the market, such as counting empty Dongpeng bottles in service areas to stay alert to market conditions [5]. Digital Transformation - Dongpeng has integrated digitalization into its operations, starting with marketing innovations in 2015, such as using QR codes for promotions [21]. - The company has developed a comprehensive digital system that allows real-time tracking of sales and inventory data, enhancing operational efficiency [23][24]. - Lin Muqin actively engages with the digital data, reviewing key metrics daily to ensure informed decision-making [24].

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage is making a second attempt to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to support its international business development after an initial application was invalidated in April 2023. The company has experienced rapid growth since its A-share listing in 2021, becoming a leader in the functional beverage sector [1][2]. Financial Performance - Dongpeng Beverage's revenue has shown significant growth from 2022 to 2025, with figures of 8.5 billion yuan, 11.257 billion yuan, and 15.83 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 21.81%, 32.44%, and 40.62%. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 10.737 billion yuan, a 36.37% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.375 billion yuan, up 37.22% [1]. Market Position - As of October 17, 2025, Dongpeng Beverage's market capitalization reached 156.7 billion yuan. The founder, Lin Muqin, has seen his wealth grow significantly, ranking as the richest person in Guangdong's Chaoshan region with a net worth of 30.5 billion yuan in 2022 [1]. Strategic Focus - The company emphasizes growth as its core strategy, with Lin Muqin stating that this focus is ingrained in the company's culture. Dongpeng is diversifying its product offerings beyond its flagship Dongpeng Special Drink to include new products like "Brew Water" and "Dongpeng Coffee" to reduce reliance on a single product [4][5]. Competitive Landscape - The beverage industry is highly competitive, and Dongpeng is actively working to expand its market share. The company has seen its market share grow from 4.7% in 2012 to 16.7% in 2021, while Red Bull's market share declined from 82.1% to 53.3% during the same period [15]. Digital Transformation - Dongpeng has integrated digitalization into its operations, allowing for real-time data tracking of sales and inventory. This digital approach has improved the company's efficiency in managing promotional activities and understanding market dynamics [16][18].