Core Viewpoint - The hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry is facing significant challenges, including increased losses among companies, a lack of effective commercialization, and the impending expiration of supportive policies by 2025, prompting urgent calls for new policy measures and financial support [3][5][15]. Group 1: Financial Performance of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Companies - Companies in the hydrogen fuel cell sector are experiencing heightened losses due to multiple factors, including accounts receivable crises, excessive R&D investments, and declining stack prices [3][8]. - In 2024, major companies like Yihuatong reported a revenue drop of 54.21% to 367 million yuan, with net losses expanding to 456 million yuan. Collectively, four leading firms faced losses exceeding 1.81 billion yuan, with an average loss increase of over 60% [3][7]. - The cash flow crisis is exacerbated by delayed government subsidies, leading to a paradox where increased subsidies do not alleviate cash flow issues [8][9]. Group 2: Commercialization Challenges - The hydrogen energy industry has not achieved effective commercialization, primarily due to the mismatch between hydrogen production costs and terminal demand, as well as a lack of diverse application scenarios [11][12]. - Currently, green hydrogen accounts for less than 10% of production, with gray hydrogen being the predominant source, leading to significant cost disparities (gray hydrogen at approximately 10 yuan/kg versus green hydrogen at 30-40 yuan/kg) [11][12]. - The logistics sector, which is highly cost-sensitive, faces challenges in scaling up hydrogen fuel cell vehicles due to high lifecycle fuel costs compared to diesel vehicles [13]. Group 3: Policy and Industry Demands - Industry stakeholders are calling for continuous policy support, a national hydrogen network, specialized financing channels, cost reduction strategies for green hydrogen, and the diversification of application scenarios [15][18]. - There is a consensus on the need for a long-term mechanism to prevent policy gaps that could hinder capital investment and technological progress [16]. - The establishment of a national hydrogen energy fund and the promotion of green hydrogen through mandatory quotas in industrial sectors are seen as essential steps for the industry's growth [17][18]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite current difficulties, there is optimism within the industry regarding the potential for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to achieve cost parity with traditional fuel vehicles within the next 3-5 years [19]. - The upcoming years are critical for the industry, with expectations that companies lacking core competitiveness may be eliminated, while strong players could thrive [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the critical role of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in achieving net-zero carbon emissions in the aviation industry by 2050, highlighting the importance of green hydrogen in SAF production [3][7]. Group 1: SAF Market Overview - In 2023, global aviation fuel consumption reached 306 million tons, resulting in carbon emissions of 962 million tons, accounting for approximately 2.6% of global carbon emissions [3]. - The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has set a long-term climate goal to achieve net-zero emissions for international aviation by 2050 [3]. Group 2: SAF Production Technologies - As of May 2025, there are 11 recognized production pathways for SAF, with a maximum blending ratio of 50%. The main processes include HEFA, AtJ, FT, MtJ, and PtL, with MtJ and PtL still undergoing recognition [3]. - It is projected that by 2030, HEFA will dominate SAF production in China, while PtL is expected to become mainstream after 2050 due to its mature technology and near-zero carbon emissions [3]. Group 3: Hydrogen Demand in SAF Production - Different SAF production processes have varying hydrogen requirements. The PtL process requires the most hydrogen, consuming between 0.38 to 0.58 tons of hydrogen per ton of SAF produced [5]. - By the end of 2025, China's SAF projects are expected to have a production capacity of 2.146 million tons per year, primarily using the HEFA process, leading to a hydrogen demand of 172,000 tons [5]. - In an optimistic scenario, hydrogen demand for domestic SAF projects is projected to reach 1 million tons by 2030 and 22 million tons by 2050 as PtL becomes the dominant process [5]. Group 4: Green Hydrogen and Emission Reduction - Utilizing green hydrogen instead of gray hydrogen in SAF production can reduce carbon emissions by over 40% [7]. - As of March 2025, domestic green hydrogen production capacity is estimated to reach 112,400 tons per year, but gray hydrogen remains the preferred choice due to cost advantages and established supply chains [7]. - The transition to green hydrogen is expected to accelerate as costs decrease, policy incentives strengthen, and technology advances [7].

"宁波膜智信息科技有限公司"为势银（TrendBank）唯一工商注册实体及收款账户 势银研究： 势银产业研究服务 势银数据： 势银数据产品服务 势银咨询： 势银咨询顾问服务 添加文末微信，加 绿氢 群 燃料电池车（FCV）作为氢能应用的核心场景之一，近年来备受关注。尽管政策支持和技术进步为其 发展奠定了基础，但市场爆发仍需突破氢源价格、经济性及基础设施三大瓶颈。 市场现状与瓶颈：潜力巨大但短期承压 01 市场增速波动，政策驱动为主 2025年作为"十四五"补贴收官年，企业战略相对保守，对延续政策持观望态度，燃料电池车销量预计 全年不超过7000辆，较往年将有所下滑。2025年一季度仅上牌1145辆，且其中480辆为2024年底成都揭 榜挂帅项目，今年目前实际产销不到700辆，暴露出经济性不足、基础设施滞后等问题。目前，中国 FCV保有量约2.8万辆，但商用车占主导（如公交车、物流车），乘用车推广缓慢。 02 核心瓶颈尚未突破 突破路径：三大关键问题的解决方向 01 氢源价格下降：绿氢规模化与成本优化 多地负电价现象为电解水制氢提供成本优化窗口。例如，德国通过可再生能源过剩电力制氢已实现部 分绿氢平价。中国若推 ...