Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [3][5] Core Views - The report anticipates acceleration in growth for advertising and enterprise services in Q1 2026, with expectations for new game releases like "Honor of Kings World" and "Little People World" to contribute to growth in 2026 [3][10] - The forecasted IFRS net profit for Tencent is projected to be 224.8 billion, 241.6 billion, and 281.9 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting adjustments based on increased AI investments [3][10] - The target price is set at 579.51 HKD, indicating a potential upside from the current price [3][5] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, Tencent's revenue is reported at 609.02 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 9.82% [4] - The operating profit for 2023 is 155.37 billion RMB, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 51.11% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is 115.22 billion RMB, which represents a decline of 38.79% year-on-year [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is reported at 12.63 RMB [4] - The gross margin for 2023 stands at 48.13%, while the net margin is at 18.92% [4] Revenue Breakdown - The report indicates that the revenue from value-added services reached 899 billion RMB in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 14% [10] - Gaming revenue for Q4 2025 is reported at 593 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21% [10] - Marketing services revenue for Q4 2025 is 411 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 18% [10] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue for Q4 2025 is 608 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 8% [10] Future Projections - The report projects that total revenue will reach 660.26 billion RMB in 2024, 751.77 billion RMB in 2025, and 853.18 billion RMB in 2026, with respective growth rates of 8.41%, 13.86%, and 13.49% [4] - The operating profit is expected to grow to 200.10 billion RMB in 2024 and 244.74 billion RMB in 2025, with growth rates of 28.78% and 22.31% respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase to 194.07 billion RMB in 2024 and 224.84 billion RMB in 2025, with growth rates of 68.44% and 15.85% respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [3][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the gaming sector remains robust, with advertising and cloud services expected to see upward growth [2][10]. - Anticipated contributions from major games such as "Honor of Kings World" and "Little People World" are expected to drive growth in 2026 [3][10]. - The forecasted IFRS net profit for Tencent is projected to be 224.8 billion, 241.6 billion, and 281.9 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][10]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 751.8 billion, 853.2 billion, and 972.3 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 13.9%, 13.5%, and 14.0% respectively [4][14]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 224.8 billion RMB in 2025, 241.6 billion RMB in 2026, and 281.9 billion RMB in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.9%, 7.5%, and 16.7% respectively [4][14]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 24.64, 26.48, and 30.90 RMB [4][14]. - **Profit Margins**: Gross margin is expected to improve from 56.2% in 2025 to 57.3% in 2027, while net margin is projected to stabilize around 29% [4][14]. Business Segment Insights - **Gaming Revenue**: The gaming revenue for Q4 2025 reached 593 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 21%, driven by both domestic and international titles [10]. - **Marketing Services**: Marketing services revenue for Q4 2025 was 411 billion RMB, with an 18% year-on-year growth, expected to increase further in Q1 2026 due to enhanced collaborations with e-commerce platforms [10]. - **Financial Technology and Enterprise Services**: Revenue from this segment was 608 billion RMB in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 8%, and is expected to accelerate in 2026 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for investment in the media industry, indicating that various sectors are entering a favorable valuation range and highlighting the importance of marginal logic turning points [1]. Core Insights - The media sector experienced a decline of 3.78% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 2.19%, ranking 13th among all sectors [9]. - The gaming market showed high prosperity, with domestic game market revenue reaching 332 billion yuan in February, a year-on-year increase of 19%, marking the highest growth rate in nearly 10 months [32]. - AI model usage is accelerating, with an expected model call volume of 20.3 trillion tokens from March 16 to March 22, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 20% [16]. Market Performance Review - The media sector's performance was characterized by significant individual stock movements, with notable gainers including Liansheng Technology (20.06%) and Tiandi Online (15.9%), while Hengtong Holdings saw a decline of 20.76% [10]. - The report emphasizes the defensive attributes and fundamental turning points of large-cap internet platforms, which are currently under pressure [14]. AI Models and Applications - The report highlights that the top AI models by call volume include Step 3.5 Flash and MiniMax M2.5, with significant week-on-week changes in their usage [21]. - AI applications have seen substantial growth, particularly during the Spring Festival promotional period, with leading domestic AI applications experiencing significant increases in monthly active users [24][30]. Gaming Market - The gaming sector's revenue growth is attributed to the Spring Festival effect, with client games showing a year-on-year increase of 57% [32]. - The report notes that the A-share gaming sector's valuation has returned to a low range of 13-14X, indicating potential for performance recovery in the upcoming quarters [32]. Internet Sector - The internet sector is entering a performance verification phase, with market sentiment being cautious due to AI investment pressures on short-term earnings per share (EPS) [32]. - The report suggests focusing on platform companies with clear commercialization paths for AI, such as Alibaba and Tencent, while also identifying opportunities in companies with improving fundamentals [32].

Core Viewpoint - The news of mass layoffs at Tencent's TiMi Studio Group is largely exaggerated, with the actual adjustments affecting only a specific team due to underperformance of a project, rather than a widespread reduction in workforce [2][3]. Group 1 - The adjustment is specifically targeting the TiMi J6 team, with around 100 employees affected due to the underperformance of the project "Shan Hai Xun Ling" after its launch during the Spring Festival [3]. - Instead of direct layoffs, the company is implementing an internal job transfer program, allowing affected employees a two-month buffer period to find new positions within Tencent [3]. - There are over 500 vacant positions within TiMi Studio, including key projects like "Honor of Kings World" and "Delta Action," indicating that most employees can be absorbed internally [3]. Group 2 - If employees do not find suitable positions within the two-month period and choose to leave, the company will provide compensation based on an N+1 formula, which is considered a humane arrangement [3]. - Industry insiders suggest that this type of project optimization is common in the gaming industry and does not reflect a full studio layoff, as TiMi remains a core studio for Tencent with stable main projects [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Haitong International maintains a "buy" rating on Tencent Holdings (00700) with a target price of HKD 700, expecting stable performance in Q4 2025 and high-quality growth to continue into FY 2026 [1][2] - The forecast for Tencent's Q4 performance includes total revenue of RMB 195 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%, and an operating profit (non-IFRS) of RMB 68 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 15% [1] - For FY 2026, Tencent's gaming product line is expected to be robust, with key overseas titles and a variety of mid-sized games, predicting Q4 2025, full-year 2025, and full-year 2026 gaming revenues of RMB 58 billion, RMB 241 billion, and RMB 264 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18%, 22%, and 10% [1] Group 2 - The advertising business is driven by three main growth engines: video accounts, search, and mini-programs, with AI technology continuing to empower growth; mini-programs are enhancing advertising revenue through e-commerce and content distribution [1] - The forecast for advertising revenue in Q4 2025, full-year 2025, and full-year 2026 is expected to reach RMB 42 billion, RMB 145 billion, and RMB 172 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth of 19%, 20%, and 18% [1] - Despite potential pressure on profit margins from increased capital expenditures in 2026, the company anticipates slight profit margin expansion driven by high-margin new business lines, with adjusted operating profits projected at RMB 68 billion, RMB 280 billion, and RMB 312 billion for Q4 2025, full-year 2025, and full-year 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15%, 18%, and 12% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Haitong International maintains a "Outperform" rating for Tencent Holdings (00700) with a target price of HKD 700, expecting steady performance in Q4 2025 and high-quality growth to continue into FY 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance Forecast - Tencent's total revenue for Q4 2025 is projected to reach RMB 195 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 13% [1] - Non-IFRS operating profit is expected to be RMB 68 billion in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 15% [1] - For FY 2025 and FY 2026, the forecasted total revenues are RMB 2.41 trillion and RMB 2.64 trillion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22% and 10% [1] Group 2: Gaming and Advertising Business - The gaming product line is expected to remain robust, with key overseas titles like "Honor of Kings World" and "Valorant," alongside several mid-sized games [1] - Advertising revenue is anticipated to grow significantly, with Q4 2025 expected to reach RMB 42 billion, and full-year revenues for 2025 and 2026 projected at RMB 145 billion and RMB 172 billion, respectively [1] - The growth engines for advertising include video accounts, search, and mini-programs, with AI technology continuing to enhance these areas [1] Group 3: Profitability Outlook - Despite potential pressure on profit margins from increased capital expenditures in 2026, a slight profit margin expansion is still expected due to high-margin new business lines [2] - Adjusted operating profit forecasts for Q4 2025, FY 2025, and FY 2026 are RMB 68 billion, RMB 280 billion, and RMB 312 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 18%, and 12% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Haitong International maintains a "Outperform" rating on Tencent Holdings with a target price of HKD 700, projecting a stable performance for the company in the upcoming quarter [1] Financial Performance - For Q4, total revenue is expected to reach CNY 195 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 13% [1] - Non-IFRS operating profit is projected at CNY 68 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 15% [1] Future Outlook - For the fiscal year 2026, Tencent's game product line is expected to be diverse, featuring key overseas titles such as "Honor of Kings World" and "Valorant Mobile," along with several mid-sized games like "Under the Red Sky," "RUST," "Monster Hunter: Traveler," and "Rainbow Six" [1] - In the advertising sector, the growth engines will continue to be Video Accounts, Search, and Mini Programs, with AI technology playing a significant role [1] - High-quality growth is anticipated to persist into the fiscal year 2026, despite potential pressure on profit margins from increased capital expenditures [1] - Driven by high-margin new business lines, a slight expansion in profit margins is still expected [1]

Core Viewpoint - Haitong International maintains a "Outperform" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of HKD 700 [1] Financial Performance - The estimated total revenue for Tencent in Q4 is expected to reach HKD 195 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 13% [1] - Non-IFRS operating profit is projected to be HKD 68 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15% [1] Future Outlook - For the fiscal year 2026, Tencent's game product line is expected to be diverse, including key overseas titles such as "Honor of Kings World" and "Valorant" mobile, along with several mid-sized games like "Under the Red Sky," "RUST," "Monster Hunter: Traveler," and "Rainbow Six" [1] - The advertising business is anticipated to continue growing, driven by video accounts, search, and mini-programs, with AI technology playing a significant role [1] - High-quality growth is expected to persist into the fiscal year 2026, despite potential acceleration in capital expenditures that may pressure profit margins [1] - New high-margin business lines are expected to drive a slight expansion in profit margins [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][8][23] Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve revenue of CNY 194.6 billion in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%. The network advertising sector is anticipated to perform steadily, benefiting from the release of advertising inventory and AI integration. The gaming business is expected to show strong performance, particularly with the game "Delta Operation" [4][9] - The company is increasing its investment in AI, which is expected to offset some operational leverage release. The AI investment will primarily manifest in R&D expenses, projected to grow by 28% in Q4 2025 [4][10] - The gaming segment is projected to generate revenue of CNY 58 billion in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. Domestic game revenue is expected to grow by 16%, supported by established titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [5][15][21] - Marketing services revenue is expected to reach CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, driven by AI enhancements in advertising efficiency [6][19] - Financial technology and enterprise services are projected to grow by 9% year-on-year, with revenue expected to reach CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025, primarily driven by payment services [20] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Q4 2025 revenue is expected to be CNY 194.6 billion, with a 13% year-on-year increase. Non-IFRS operating profit is projected at CNY 68.1 billion, up 15% year-on-year, and net profit is expected to be CNY 65.2 billion, reflecting an 18% increase [4][10][11] - The expected Non-IFRS net profit margin is 34% for Q4 2025 [10] Gaming Business - The gaming revenue forecast for Q4 2025 is CNY 58 billion, with an 18% year-on-year growth. Domestic game revenue is expected to grow by 16%, while overseas game revenue is projected to increase by 22% [5][21] Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue is anticipated to be CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, marking an 18% year-on-year growth. AI-driven enhancements are expected to improve advertising efficiency significantly [6][19] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services is expected to reach CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025, with a 9% year-on-year growth, primarily driven by payment services [20]

Company Overview - Tencent's main businesses in gaming, advertising, finance, and enterprise services are expected to maintain high-quality growth, with AI accelerating talent deployment [1] Gaming Performance - Domestic gaming revenue is projected to grow by 12% year-on-year in Q4, supported by stable performance of established games like "Honor of Kings" and rising revenue from new titles like "Delta Action" [1] - Overseas gaming growth is expected to normalize with a 24% year-on-year increase in Q4, driven by high revenue from Supercell's "Clash Royale" [1] - For 2026, revenue growth is anticipated to be influenced by deferred income from high revenue in 2025 and upcoming titles such as "Honor of Kings World" and "Crossfire: Rainbow" [1] Advertising and Financial Services - Advertising revenue is expected to grow by 19% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with healthy growth anticipated in 2026 due to deeper utilization of ecosystems like video accounts and mini-programs, as well as enhanced user engagement through AI [2] - Financial and enterprise services revenue is projected to grow by 10% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with financial services experiencing a potential slowdown in payment growth due to macroeconomic disturbances [2] - Enterprise services are expected to benefit from revenue growth in video account e-commerce technology services and cloud computing [2] AI Strategy and R&D Investment - Tencent's AI strategy is entering an accelerated phase, with significant R&D investments expected to continue growing [2] - The appointment of former OpenAI researcher Yao Shunyu as Chief AI Scientist and the release of the 2.0 version of the mixed Yuan model in December highlight the company's commitment to AI development [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025 remain unchanged, while the 2026 revenue forecast has been slightly reduced by 1% to 831.7 billion yuan [2] - Non-IFRS profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been increased by 1% to 262.9 billion yuan and 294.8 billion yuan, respectively, with new projections for 2027 set at 903.5 billion yuan in revenue and 326.9 billion yuan in profit [2] Rating and Target Price - The company maintains a "outperform" rating with a target price of 700 HKD, corresponding to 19x/17x 2026e/2027e Non-IFRS P/E, indicating an 11% upside from the current stock price [3]