2 月 28 日，"腾讯天美大裁员数百人"的消息在社交平台刷屏，不少人以为这个头部游戏工作室要大幅收缩。 不过，接近天美的相关人士迅速辟谣， 网传大规模裁员并不属实 。 如果员工两个月内未找到合适岗位并选择离职，公司将按 N+1 给予补偿，整体安排相对人性化。 业内人士表示，这是游戏行业常见的 项目优胜劣汰 ，并非全工作室裁员。天美作为腾讯游戏核心工作室，主 力项目依然稳定，此次调整属于正常业务迭代，不影响整体团队规模。 （参考： 21 财经、澎湃新闻 ，本文经由 AI 优化） 天美并未直接裁员，而是启动内部活水转岗方案：受影响员工享有 2 个月缓冲找岗期 ，期间可在腾讯内部投 递岗位。 目前仅天美工作室就有 500 多个空缺岗位 ，包括《王者荣耀世界》《三角洲行动》等重点项目都在招人，部 分团队甚至愿意整组接收， 绝大多数员工能内部消化 。 此次调整仅针对天美 J6 团队，因《山海寻灵》项目春节档上线后表现未达预期，公司决定对该项目进行优 化， 涉及员工约 100 余人，并非传言的数百人 。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Haitong International maintains a "buy" rating on Tencent Holdings (00700) with a target price of HKD 700, expecting stable performance in Q4 2025 and high-quality growth to continue into FY 2026 [1][2] - The forecast for Tencent's Q4 performance includes total revenue of RMB 195 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%, and an operating profit (non-IFRS) of RMB 68 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 15% [1] - For FY 2026, Tencent's gaming product line is expected to be robust, with key overseas titles and a variety of mid-sized games, predicting Q4 2025, full-year 2025, and full-year 2026 gaming revenues of RMB 58 billion, RMB 241 billion, and RMB 264 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18%, 22%, and 10% [1] Group 2 - The advertising business is driven by three main growth engines: video accounts, search, and mini-programs, with AI technology continuing to empower growth; mini-programs are enhancing advertising revenue through e-commerce and content distribution [1] - The forecast for advertising revenue in Q4 2025, full-year 2025, and full-year 2026 is expected to reach RMB 42 billion, RMB 145 billion, and RMB 172 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth of 19%, 20%, and 18% [1] - Despite potential pressure on profit margins from increased capital expenditures in 2026, the company anticipates slight profit margin expansion driven by high-margin new business lines, with adjusted operating profits projected at RMB 68 billion, RMB 280 billion, and RMB 312 billion for Q4 2025, full-year 2025, and full-year 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15%, 18%, and 12% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Haitong International maintains a "Outperform" rating for Tencent Holdings (00700) with a target price of HKD 700, expecting steady performance in Q4 2025 and high-quality growth to continue into FY 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance Forecast - Tencent's total revenue for Q4 2025 is projected to reach RMB 195 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 13% [1] - Non-IFRS operating profit is expected to be RMB 68 billion in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 15% [1] - For FY 2025 and FY 2026, the forecasted total revenues are RMB 2.41 trillion and RMB 2.64 trillion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22% and 10% [1] Group 2: Gaming and Advertising Business - The gaming product line is expected to remain robust, with key overseas titles like "Honor of Kings World" and "Valorant," alongside several mid-sized games [1] - Advertising revenue is anticipated to grow significantly, with Q4 2025 expected to reach RMB 42 billion, and full-year revenues for 2025 and 2026 projected at RMB 145 billion and RMB 172 billion, respectively [1] - The growth engines for advertising include video accounts, search, and mini-programs, with AI technology continuing to enhance these areas [1] Group 3: Profitability Outlook - Despite potential pressure on profit margins from increased capital expenditures in 2026, a slight profit margin expansion is still expected due to high-margin new business lines [2] - Adjusted operating profit forecasts for Q4 2025, FY 2025, and FY 2026 are RMB 68 billion, RMB 280 billion, and RMB 312 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 18%, and 12% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Haitong International maintains a "Outperform" rating on Tencent Holdings with a target price of HKD 700, projecting a stable performance for the company in the upcoming quarter [1] Financial Performance - For Q4, total revenue is expected to reach CNY 195 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 13% [1] - Non-IFRS operating profit is projected at CNY 68 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 15% [1] Future Outlook - For the fiscal year 2026, Tencent's game product line is expected to be diverse, featuring key overseas titles such as "Honor of Kings World" and "Valorant Mobile," along with several mid-sized games like "Under the Red Sky," "RUST," "Monster Hunter: Traveler," and "Rainbow Six" [1] - In the advertising sector, the growth engines will continue to be Video Accounts, Search, and Mini Programs, with AI technology playing a significant role [1] - High-quality growth is anticipated to persist into the fiscal year 2026, despite potential pressure on profit margins from increased capital expenditures [1] - Driven by high-margin new business lines, a slight expansion in profit margins is still expected [1]

Core Viewpoint - Haitong International maintains a "Outperform" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of HKD 700 [1] Financial Performance - The estimated total revenue for Tencent in Q4 is expected to reach HKD 195 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 13% [1] - Non-IFRS operating profit is projected to be HKD 68 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15% [1] Future Outlook - For the fiscal year 2026, Tencent's game product line is expected to be diverse, including key overseas titles such as "Honor of Kings World" and "Valorant" mobile, along with several mid-sized games like "Under the Red Sky," "RUST," "Monster Hunter: Traveler," and "Rainbow Six" [1] - The advertising business is anticipated to continue growing, driven by video accounts, search, and mini-programs, with AI technology playing a significant role [1] - High-quality growth is expected to persist into the fiscal year 2026, despite potential acceleration in capital expenditures that may pressure profit margins [1] - New high-margin business lines are expected to drive a slight expansion in profit margins [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][8][23] Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve revenue of CNY 194.6 billion in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%. The network advertising sector is anticipated to perform steadily, benefiting from the release of advertising inventory and AI integration. The gaming business is expected to show strong performance, particularly with the game "Delta Operation" [4][9] - The company is increasing its investment in AI, which is expected to offset some operational leverage release. The AI investment will primarily manifest in R&D expenses, projected to grow by 28% in Q4 2025 [4][10] - The gaming segment is projected to generate revenue of CNY 58 billion in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. Domestic game revenue is expected to grow by 16%, supported by established titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [5][15][21] - Marketing services revenue is expected to reach CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, driven by AI enhancements in advertising efficiency [6][19] - Financial technology and enterprise services are projected to grow by 9% year-on-year, with revenue expected to reach CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025, primarily driven by payment services [20] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Q4 2025 revenue is expected to be CNY 194.6 billion, with a 13% year-on-year increase. Non-IFRS operating profit is projected at CNY 68.1 billion, up 15% year-on-year, and net profit is expected to be CNY 65.2 billion, reflecting an 18% increase [4][10][11] - The expected Non-IFRS net profit margin is 34% for Q4 2025 [10] Gaming Business - The gaming revenue forecast for Q4 2025 is CNY 58 billion, with an 18% year-on-year growth. Domestic game revenue is expected to grow by 16%, while overseas game revenue is projected to increase by 22% [5][21] Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue is anticipated to be CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, marking an 18% year-on-year growth. AI-driven enhancements are expected to improve advertising efficiency significantly [6][19] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services is expected to reach CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025, with a 9% year-on-year growth, primarily driven by payment services [20]

Company Overview - Tencent's main businesses in gaming, advertising, finance, and enterprise services are expected to maintain high-quality growth, with AI accelerating talent deployment [1] Gaming Performance - Domestic gaming revenue is projected to grow by 12% year-on-year in Q4, supported by stable performance of established games like "Honor of Kings" and rising revenue from new titles like "Delta Action" [1] - Overseas gaming growth is expected to normalize with a 24% year-on-year increase in Q4, driven by high revenue from Supercell's "Clash Royale" [1] - For 2026, revenue growth is anticipated to be influenced by deferred income from high revenue in 2025 and upcoming titles such as "Honor of Kings World" and "Crossfire: Rainbow" [1] Advertising and Financial Services - Advertising revenue is expected to grow by 19% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with healthy growth anticipated in 2026 due to deeper utilization of ecosystems like video accounts and mini-programs, as well as enhanced user engagement through AI [2] - Financial and enterprise services revenue is projected to grow by 10% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with financial services experiencing a potential slowdown in payment growth due to macroeconomic disturbances [2] - Enterprise services are expected to benefit from revenue growth in video account e-commerce technology services and cloud computing [2] AI Strategy and R&D Investment - Tencent's AI strategy is entering an accelerated phase, with significant R&D investments expected to continue growing [2] - The appointment of former OpenAI researcher Yao Shunyu as Chief AI Scientist and the release of the 2.0 version of the mixed Yuan model in December highlight the company's commitment to AI development [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025 remain unchanged, while the 2026 revenue forecast has been slightly reduced by 1% to 831.7 billion yuan [2] - Non-IFRS profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been increased by 1% to 262.9 billion yuan and 294.8 billion yuan, respectively, with new projections for 2027 set at 903.5 billion yuan in revenue and 326.9 billion yuan in profit [2] Rating and Target Price - The company maintains a "outperform" rating with a target price of 700 HKD, corresponding to 19x/17x 2026e/2027e Non-IFRS P/E, indicating an 11% upside from the current stock price [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The total supply of game licenses continues to increase, with a significant rise in new products expected in 2026. The number of game licenses issued in 2025 reached 1,771, a 25.07% increase from 1,416 in 2024, marking a new high since the regulations were established in 2018 [8] - The approval process for imported game licenses has been optimized, with the average number of licenses issued per batch increasing from approximately 80 in 2023 to 160 in the second half of 2025, indicating a supportive policy environment [8] - The number of cross-platform headlining games has significantly increased, with 1,729 mobile games, 159 client games, 19 web games, and 8 console games licensed in 2025. The growth of cross-platform products is expected to continue, driven by high-end engine usage [8] - The gaming market is expected to see intense competition in genres such as simulation, RPG, and open-world games in 2026, with a notable presence of low ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) games that may exhibit stronger resilience against deflationary pressures [8] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report suggests focusing on companies with a reserve of cross-platform headlining projects and those with a strong portfolio of enduring games that have high daily active users (DAU) but low ARPU. Recommended stocks include Tencent Holdings (00700, Buy), NetEase (09999, Buy), and others [3] Industry Dynamics - The gaming industry is experiencing a robust growth trajectory, with a notable increase in the number of game licenses and an improved business environment for game developers due to policy support [8]

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation of esports events in Shenzhen's Nanshan district, showcasing a shift from merely watching competitions to immersive experiences that engage participants in various activities and consumption [1][2]. Group 1: Event Structure and Engagement - The esports carnival features a 17-day "Honor of Kings" event with a "1+2+3+N" multi-dimensional framework, integrating esports elements into public spaces [2]. - The main venue, Shenzhen Talent Park, has been transformed into a "No Boundaries King" themed town, blending virtual and real experiences with various attractions [4]. - Multiple sub-venues offer unique experiences, such as VR gaming and light art, while themed activities like parades and concerts enhance engagement [4]. Group 2: Transportation and Accessibility - Nanshan has established seamless transportation links, including themed buses and exclusive helicopter tours, to facilitate access to the events [4]. - The integration of public transport with event themes aims to convert online enthusiasm into physical attendance [4]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The esports carnival has generated significant economic activity beyond ticket sales, with a reported 58,000 visitors in a single day during the first weekend [6]. - A collaborative initiative with the local business bureau provided 5 million yuan in consumer subsidies, stimulating spending across various sectors [7]. - The "event-driven tourism" model has proven effective, with over 10,000 tickets for the "Naraka: Bladepoint" finals sold within five minutes, attracting a majority of out-of-province attendees [7]. Group 4: Technological Integration - The event showcased advanced technology, including humanoid robots and drone light shows, enhancing the overall appeal and experience [11]. - This integration of technology reflects Shenzhen's strengths in industries like AI and drone technology, contributing to the event's attractiveness [11]. Group 5: Industry Foundation and Policy Support - Nanshan's esports industry has a robust foundation, with annual revenues exceeding 100 billion yuan, accounting for over 80% of Shenzhen's total [12]. - The region hosts major gaming companies and esports clubs, creating a comprehensive ecosystem that supports various facets of the industry [12]. - Local policies provide substantial financial support for hosting major esports events, fostering a conducive environment for growth [12].

Group 1 - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a significant year for China's gaming market and the "going global" trend, with a total of 1,676 domestic online game licenses issued, representing a 28.33% increase from 1,306 in 2024 [1] - The number of multi-platform game licenses reached 103 in 2025, up 9.57% from 94 in 2024, indicating a shift towards more diverse gaming platforms beyond mobile [1] - Major companies are increasingly applying for licenses for client and console versions alongside mobile versions, reflecting a strategic shift in the gaming industry [2] Group 2 - Tencent's game "Delta Action" has become a top performer in the domestic market and is expected to drive overseas growth, while NetEase's "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" has set a new record with over 15 million global players within a month of its overseas launch [2] - The client game market is experiencing a strong recovery, with actual sales revenue reaching 78.16 billion yuan in 2025, a 14.97% year-on-year increase, while the console game market saw an 86.33% increase to 8.362 billion yuan [3] - The rise of multi-platform games is attributed to their broader player base and increased confidence in producing AAA games, which require higher technical standards [3] Group 3 - The revenue-sharing model with distribution channels has become increasingly contentious, with Android channels taking up to 50% and Apple around 30%, squeezing profit margins for game developers [4] - High distribution costs have led several major titles to withdraw from Android channels, marking a significant shift in the industry [4] - Many developers are now turning to client platforms, which typically have lower or zero revenue-sharing rates, as a strategic response to high mobile game distribution costs [5][6]