尽管以歪马送酒为代表的即时零售被业内认为是能够提升酒类商品动销的新机会，但在这个被视为蓝海的渠道中，保真问题以及客单价较低正挑战着歪马送 酒的"神经"。12月16日，北京商报记者登录黑猫投诉查询发现，部分消费者反馈在该平台上所购产品与此前在其他渠道购酒味道存在差异，疑似假酒。 "低价"标签 在位于东四附近的歪马送酒门店外，身着黄色工服的员工正在整理货物，在这些货物中，啤酒品类明显成为主角。与此同时，走进店内，超过20多款酒类产 品在前置仓中被码放得整整齐齐，店内员工在后台频频处理着消费者线上下单需求。 值得注意的是，在该店内码放的产品中，啤酒占绝大部分，其中包括燕京啤酒、青岛啤酒以及雪花啤酒旗下多款产品。该店店员向记者表示："消费者目前 较多选购的产品主要集中在啤酒品类，客单价相对较低。很多消费者选择歪马送酒主要是看中价格优势。尤其是在平台打价格战的时候，会为消费者送出很 多优惠券以吸引消费增加黏度。" 据了解，自2021年在惠州试点启动项目以来，截至目前，歪马送酒已在全国建立起2000多个前置仓，用户突破2000万，交易规模预计突破60亿元。 不仅仅是线下前置仓客单价较低，登录歪马送酒小程序查询不难发现，其 ...

晨 会 纪 要 [2025]第 228 号 主 题：公司深度报告汇报 时 间：2025 年 12 月 12 日 8:50-9:30 会议形式：腾讯会议 参会人员：曹旭特 仇华 许雯 王攀 蒋栋 轩鹏程 文正平 李杰 张智珑 郭怡萍 李育文 李正威 别璐莎 邢维洁 马丽明 贺钰偲 汪炜 聂孟依 张弛 整理记录：张弛 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、行业公司 1、公司深度——燕京啤酒首次覆盖报告（张弛） 人员变革让燕啤这家老国企焕发新生 昨日的燕啤：曾经辉煌，暂时落后。燕京啤酒是中国五大啤酒集团中唯一没有外资背 景的民族企业，母公司为燕啤投资，实控人为北京国资委下属的北控集团。公司自 80 年 代成立以来不断发展，但 2014 年后随行业一起陷入低谷，存在体制僵化、转型迟缓、收 入下滑等问题，发展滞后于同业。 今日的燕啤：人员调整，改革提速。20-22 年期间公司管理团队发生较大变化，耿超 为核心的新任领导班子推行大刀阔斧的改革，帮助公司自 21 年起利润年年创新高，股价 显著跑出超额收益。 行业现状 价格端持续上涨，瓶快于罐，主流价格带仍低。燕啤自身吨价不高，且扎实做好大众 档到次高档的消费升级，在本周期内表现强 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a 0.2 percentage point increase from 2024. The GDP growth for the third quarter was 4.8%, in line with market expectations, but down 0.4 percentage points from the second quarter [3][4] - The industrial added value in September increased by 6.5% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 5.2%, and up 1.3 percentage points from August. The cumulative growth rate for the first three quarters was 6.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from the first half of the year [3][4] - Fixed asset investment showed a year-on-year decline of 0.5% in the first three quarters, marking the first negative growth this year. Manufacturing investment was up 4%, while real estate investment plummeted by 13.9% [4][7] Industry Insights PCB Industry - Dazhu CNC, engaged in PCB laser processing equipment, reported a revenue of 3.9 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a 67% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising by 142.2% to 492 million yuan. The third quarter alone saw a revenue of 1.52 billion yuan, up 95.19% [10] - The PCB industry is experiencing growth driven by AI computing power, leading to an increase in the market size and technical complexity of high-layer boards [10] Connector Industry - Dingtong Technology, a supplier of various high-speed connector products, achieved a revenue of 1.16 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a 64.5% increase, with net profit rising by 125.4% to 176 million yuan. The third quarter revenue was 370 million yuan, up 48.1% [11] - The growth is attributed to the increase in communication connector business, with expectations for continued high growth due to the delivery cycle of liquid cooling equipment [11] Renewable Energy Sector - The Ministry of Finance announced a tax policy adjustment for offshore wind power, effective November 1, 2025, which will provide a 50% VAT refund for sales of electricity products generated from offshore wind. This policy aims to support the offshore wind sector while indicating that onshore wind technology is mature enough to stand without special tax support [13] - The policy is expected to have a structurally negative impact on the wind power industry, particularly for onshore wind, while benefiting offshore wind projects [13] Battery Industry - Rongbai Technology, specializing in lithium battery cathode materials, reported a revenue of 2.737 billion yuan for the third quarter, a 38.29% year-on-year decline, with a net loss of 135 million yuan. The decline is attributed to geopolitical uncertainties and increased market competition [14] - CATL, a leader in power and energy storage batteries, reported a revenue of 104.186 billion yuan, a 12.90% increase, with net profit rising by 41.21% to 18.549 billion yuan. The growth is driven by scale expansion and improved financial performance [14] Beverage Industry - Yanjing Beer reported total revenue of 13.433 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a 4.57% increase, with net profit rising by 37.45% to 1.77 billion yuan. The growth is primarily driven by the strong performance of its U8 product line [16] - The company benefited from lower raw material costs and improved production efficiency, leading to enhanced profit margins despite a generally weak market demand [16]

Core Insights - Yanjing Beer reported strong financial performance in the first half of the year, with revenue reaching 8.558 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.37%, and net profit growing significantly by 45.45% to 1.103 billion yuan, driven by its big product strategy and premiumization approach [1] Financial Performance - The revenue from beer sales was approximately 7.896 billion yuan, accounting for 92.26% of total revenue [1] - Mid-to-high-end beer contributed 5.536 billion yuan in revenue, growing by 9.3% year-on-year and representing 70.1% of beer sales, an increase of 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - Regular beer sales amounted to 2.36 billion yuan, with a modest year-on-year growth of 1.6%, and its share decreased to 29.9% [1] - Overall beer sales volume increased by 2.03% to 2.3517 million tons, with an average price per ton rising by 4.75% to 3,357.5 yuan [1] Market Challenges and Strategies - Despite the positive results, the current growth rate may not be sufficient to meet the ambitious targets set in the "14th Five-Year Plan," particularly for the U8 product line, which aims for a sales volume of 1 million kiloliters this year, requiring a growth rate of over 43.7% [2] - To tackle these challenges, the company is enhancing R&D investments in the U8 product line and increasing the promotion of canned products, focusing on retail channels [4] - The company is implementing a refined operational strategy in mature markets like North China, which contributed over 50% of total revenue, achieving 4.85 billion yuan with a year-on-year growth of 5.61% [4] - However, market share in North China slightly declined from 57.08% to 56.67%, indicating subtle shifts in market dynamics [4] Regional Performance - South China experienced the slowest growth at only 0.3%, with revenue of 1.83 billion yuan, reducing its share to 21.39% [4] - The Northwest region saw a year-on-year revenue increase of 3.83%, but its share fell below the previous year's 4.18% [4] - In contrast, Central and East China regions reported over 15% year-on-year revenue growth, showcasing strong performance [4] New Product Initiatives - In March, Yanjing Beer launched the Beiste soft drink line, aiming to create a second growth curve with flavors like orange, lychee, and mixed fruit, adopting a low-price strategy to enhance channel profitability [5] - Despite significant marketing efforts, including celebrity endorsements, the contribution of Beiste to the overall financial results remains minimal [5]

Macro Strategy - The report anticipates a decline in loan demand for July and stable growth in social financing [1] - The geopolitical situation and rising interest rate expectations have boosted market sentiment, leading to an increase in US stock prices [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 6.7 basis points to 4.283% due to weak auction results reflecting soft market demand [1] Fixed Income Analysis - The report highlights the investment value of non-ETF component bonds in the Sci-Tech bond market, suggesting a shift towards these bonds due to their higher yield and credit spread compared to ETF components [2] - It notes that 14.79% of the non-ETF component bonds have a credit spread exceeding 40 basis points, indicating potential for yield compression [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to have a longer-lasting impact compared to previous supply-side reforms, with a focus on high-quality development rather than large-scale demand-side stimulus [3][4] Company-Specific Insights - Guodian Measurement (002967) is recommended for its AI chip localization and high-end PCB expansion, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 4.0/4.5/5.2 billion [9] - Aisheng Co., Ltd. (600732) has shown a significant increase in shipments and profitability, with revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 3.8/15.6/24.9 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 107%/307%/60% [10] - Yanjing Beer (000729) continues to perform well with a focus on its U8 product line, with profit forecasts adjusted to 16.03/19.26/22.74 billion for 2025-2027 [11] - Gole Technology (002241) is expanding its AR capabilities through investment in Micro-LED technology, with profit forecasts adjusted to 34/44 billion for 2025-2026 [13] - Pop Mart (09992.HK) is expected to see rapid revenue growth driven by its IP strategy, with profit forecasts raised to 100.3/144.9/182.9 billion for 2025-2027 [14]

Group 1: Power Industry Insights - The report suggests that both electricity and coal prices are likely to rise, with electricity price increases expected to outpace coal prices. This trend may end the previous two years' pattern of declining power sector performance in the second half of the year [2][26][27] - National power load reached a historical high of 1.465 billion kilowatts on July 4, 2025, marking a 200 million kilowatt increase from the end of June and a 150 million kilowatt increase year-on-year. The eastern power grid accounted for 422 million kilowatts, with air conditioning loads constituting 37% [4][27] - The Ningxia-Hunan ±800 kV UHVDC project is set to enhance power supply in Hunan, with a total investment of 28.1 billion yuan and a transmission capacity of 8 million kilowatts, expected to deliver over 36 billion kilowatt-hours annually [5][28] Group 2: Capital Market Transformation - The report emphasizes the necessity for capital transformation to match economic restructuring, highlighting the role of government-led funds and patient capital in supporting innovation-driven growth [7][8] - The scale of the primary market has reached approximately 10 trillion yuan, growing rapidly, which presents five key opportunities for secondary market investors, including the need for research-based exit strategies and the increasing importance of mergers and acquisitions [9] - Successful overseas experiences in venture capital are boosting confidence in China's economic transformation, with a focus on integrating government and market-driven approaches [8] Group 3: Real Estate Market Trends - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the real estate sector, recommending several companies across different categories, including Vanke A, Poly Development, and China Overseas Development [15][35] - In the first half of 2025, land transaction prices outperformed transaction volumes, with a notable structural divergence favoring first- and second-tier cities. The average land transaction price increased by 30.3% year-on-year [16][36] - The average premium rate for land transactions in first-tier cities was 10.7%, reflecting a 6.6 percentage point increase year-on-year, driven by local governments increasing the supply of quality land [17][37]