强 Call 节后国内外机器人本体链共振行情 20260223 摘要 2026 年春晚机器人本体表现亮眼，宇树科技进步显著，银河通用、宗 研动力、魔法原子等公司亦展示了各自优势，预示机器人技术商业化应 用加速。 投资者应关注与机器人本体企业有实际合作关系的供应链公司，但需注 意部分标的估值已较高，选股难度增加，应关注已获小批量订单且主业 良好的企业。 特斯拉三代机器人预计于 2026 年一季度发布，将成为市场重要催化剂， 其侧重整体发展能力，与国内机器人本体注重运控能力及商业应用形成 差异化竞争。 投资策略上，可关注特斯拉三代机器人供应链中具有格局优势的零部件 环节，以及具备潜力但尚未被充分挖掘的小型供应商，以获取确定性和 弹性收益。 2026 年上半年，市场将逐步识别特斯拉供应链中的定点公司及其份额， 投资者需精挑细选标的，结合股价和估值位置进行综合考量，关注新技 术方向带来的投资机会。 Q&A 今年春节期间，国内机器人本体在春晚上的表现如何？ 今年春节期间，国内机器人本体在春晚上的表现总体令人惊艳。宇树科技的表 现尤为突出，其机器人组成的表演团体与真人配合进行武术表演，场面壮观且 机器人数量众多，吸引了大 ...

Domestic Policy - Domestic consumption has been elevated to unprecedented importance, with a focus on boosting consumption through special actions and expanding the supply of quality goods [1] - Key sectors benefiting from this policy include home appliances, cultural tourism, municipal infrastructure, and new infrastructure [1] - Visa exemptions for Canada and the UK starting February 17 are expected to boost inbound tourism and duty-free shopping in the short term, with long-term trends favoring service trade openness [1] Platform Economy - The State Administration for Market Regulation has engaged with major platforms like Alibaba and Douyin, emphasizing the need to avoid cutthroat competition and adhere to promotional regulations, which is a long-term benefit for compliant leading companies [2] - ByteDance's Doubao model 2.0 Pro has been released, directly competing with GPT-5.2, significantly reducing reasoning costs, indicating that domestic AI models are entering a practical phase [2] Industrial Upgrades - Humanoid robots gained popularity due to a Spring Festival performance, with Tesla's third-generation robot set to launch in Q1, and domestic companies like Yushutech and UBTECH making breakthroughs in control algorithms and motor performance [2] - The global data center investment boom is projected to reach $320 billion by 2025, a 74% increase, driven by demand for AI and cloud computing, benefiting data center construction and related energy and cooling equipment [2] International Developments - The U.S. tariff policy has shifted, with the Supreme Court rejecting comprehensive tariffs but Trump proposing a 10% global baseline tariff and threatening an additional 15%-30% on automobiles, impacting sectors heavily reliant on exports to the U.S. [2] - The deterioration of U.S.-Iran relations has heightened geopolitical tensions, igniting safe-haven demand for precious metals, with gold surpassing $5,100 per ounce and silver rising over 7% [3] Market Sentiment and Capital Flow - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may tolerate higher inflation, leading to a bearish sentiment on the dollar, which enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets, as evidenced by a net inflow of 13.28 billion yuan from northbound funds before the Spring Festival [3] - The M2 money supply grew by 9.0% in January, with social financing stock growth at 8.2%, and the central bank injecting 600 billion yuan before the holiday, indicating healthy liquidity [3] - Historical data shows a 75% probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in the first five trading days after the Spring Festival, with an average increase of 1.2% [3] Investment Focus - Key investment directions post-holiday include technology growth sectors such as AI models, humanoid robots, and data centers, driven by both policy and technological advancements [3] - Policy beneficiaries include domestic demand stimulation, infrastructure investment, and leading companies in the platform economy [3] - Safe-haven assets like gold and silver, along with undervalued high-dividend stocks, are recommended to hedge against geopolitical risks [3]

报告导读： 海外金融紧缩预期边际改善，国内政策重心正转向内需主导。恐慌性抛售后， 中国股市已至关键位置，建议持股过节。新兴科技是主线，价值也会有春天。 投 资 要 点 ▶大势研判：持股过节。 近期中国股市波动较大，并出现单日恐慌式抛售，市场悲观情绪弥漫。究其原因：沃什"降息+缩表"倾向引发金融条件紧缩担忧、美股科 技龙头巨额资本开支扰动与前期A股权重ETF持续被抛售交织助推了交易波动和信心走弱，加之临近春节长假观望情绪升温，客观上股市微观结构受到负面冲击。 与当下谨慎共识不同的是，国泰海通策略坚决看好中国市场前景，建议持股过节：1）全球市场正快速计入美联储潜在的鹰派货币立场，但从路径角度沃什的降息 立场更鸽派和确定。与此同时，贝森特澄清强美元政策并非指干预汇率，海外金融紧缩预期边际改善。2）中国政府的政策重心正转向内需主导，并作为首要任 务，有望提振中国经济前景与资产回报。3）证监会近期再次强调"全力巩固资本市场稳中向好势头"，A股上市公司亦掀起回购热潮。我们认为，中国股市将逐步 企稳与展开春季行情，眼下是增持良机。 ▶ 重要的边际：内需政策提速，价值迎来春天。 过去五年，中国内需增长经历了明显下行，比如房地 ...

Summary of Conference Call on AI and Robotics Industry Industry Overview - The AI industry is still in its early stages, with significant investments from major companies amounting to hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars, indicating substantial potential for growth [1][3] - AI-related computing power currently represents a small fraction of the overall economy, suggesting significant room for expansion [1][4] Key Insights and Arguments - The ratio of training to inference computing power is currently 1:1, indicating that the industry is still in the early investment phase [1][4] - Robotics, as an application of AI, is accelerating in development, with companies like Figure starting mass production of advanced robots [1][5] - The U.S. market shows strong consumer willingness to spend on technology products, benefiting both the robotics and electric vehicle sectors [1][8] Market Dynamics - Companies like Taotao and Ecovacs in the U.S. are noteworthy for their strong channel transformation capabilities, while Chinese companies like Yushu are making inroads into the North American market [1][6] - The average annual capital expenditure for U.S. tech giants ranges from $27 billion to $68 billion, with a return on investment (ROI) of approximately 40% to 50%, significantly higher than that of Chinese companies [1][6] Economic Implications - The rapid growth of the AI industry in the U.S. has led to rising wages for AI-related personnel, contributing to inflation and creating a positive ROI cycle [1][7] - The increasing cost of labor makes AI technology more attractive for companies, further driving investment in AI and robotics [1][7] Future Projections - The market for electric vehicles is expected to grow significantly, with projections of over 10 million units sold by 2025 [1][12] - The robotics sector is also anticipated to expand, with the potential for high demand as technology advances [1][12] Investment Considerations - When selecting stocks in the North American market, focus on companies with strong channel capabilities and those actively expanding into North America [1][9] - The ongoing investment in AI, projected to reach $60 billion annually by U.S. companies, will likely lead to a wave of white-collar job replacements, eventually extending to blue-collar jobs [1][11] Conclusion - The AI and robotics sectors are poised for significant growth, driven by technological advancements, strong consumer demand, and substantial investments from major companies [1][12]

贸易战影响下，如何调整机器人板块的投资策略 20251012 摘要 Figure AI 发布 Figure 03，定位为通用型机器人，全面升级 Helix 系统， 目标四年内生产 10 万台；小鹏和特斯拉也即将发布新一代人形机器人 产品，预示行业技术快速迭代。 特斯拉链四季度迎来重要更新，包括业绩会和股东大会，预计发布 Optimism V3 代机器人，重大催化因素明确，对板块行情持乐观态度。 特朗普拟对中国商品加征 100%关税，历史经验表明短期市场或有恐慌， 但考虑到特斯拉机器人催化，回调或是投资机会，中国供应链的成本优 势仍具竞争力。 人工智能领域头部创业公司估值飞速提升，人形机器人主机厂市值有望 重构，关注小鹏、赛力斯及优必选等标的。 短期关税影响情绪，长期催化不断，建议关注拓普、银轮、均胜等汽车 行业相关标的，回调或是特斯拉链最佳上车机会。 贸易战背景下，稀土、镁铝合金、国产芯片、传感器四大细分板块或将 受益，稀土竞争格局较好，镁铝合金可减轻机器人重量，国产芯片自主 可控需求增强，传感器需求大幅增加。 特斯拉三代机器人对传感器需求增加，国内上市公司大力投入研发，摄 像头、激光雷达、力传感器等领域值得 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Robotics Sector Industry Overview - The robotics sector is experiencing significant momentum, particularly with the upcoming release of Tesla's third-generation robot, which is expected to drive optimism for order volumes in 2026 [1][2] - The market anticipates further policy and subsidy support for humanoid robots, with potential industry space exceeding a baseline estimate of 1 million units [1][4] Key Points and Arguments - **Market Performance**: The robotics sector has shown strong performance in 2025, particularly in Q1, with a recent influx of capital following Musk's announcement about the third-generation robot [2] - **Impact of Personnel Changes**: The recent departure of a core AI member from Tesla caused a short-term market pullback; however, the overall impact on the Optimus project is considered limited [3] - **Technological Advancements**: The third-generation robot will feature significant upgrades in joint freedom, actuator positioning, and motor types, which may create new investment opportunities and necessitate adjustments in the supply chain [6] - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: The humanoid robot supply chain supports multiple product types, with leading suppliers having advantages in upstream segments, indicating broad development potential [5] Important but Overlooked Content - **Investment Recommendations**: Investors are advised to focus on order fulfillment and the diffusion of new technologies. Established sectors like TIRE ONE and PEEK materials are seen as having strong certainty, while new technologies require sufficient capital investment from supply chain companies [7] - **Emerging Technologies**: Key technologies to watch include automatic motors, cycloidal gear reducers, and advanced materials like high molecular polyethylene and TEC cooling systems [9][10] - **Market Trends**: The humanoid robot sector's transaction volume reached 1.95 trillion yuan, reflecting a 27% week-over-week increase, outperforming the broader market [11] - **Future Catalysts**: Anticipated catalysts include Tesla's Q3 earnings call and the shareholder meeting, which are expected to influence market sentiment positively [13] Noteworthy Events - The Ministry of Science and Technology has emphasized breakthroughs in human-robot technology, with significant advancements in multimodal perception and deep intelligence integration [12] - Figure AI's completion of a Series C funding round exceeding $1 billion, with a post-money valuation of $39 billion, highlights the growing investment interest in the robotics sector [12] Investment Suggestions - Recommended companies include 德昌电机控股 (Dachang Motor Holdings), 伟创电气 (Weichuang Electric), and others that are well-positioned in the supply chain and technology landscape [14]