摘要 AI 产业仍处于早期阶段，Transformer 模型及其衍生技术持续推进，各 大厂商已投入数百亿至千亿美元级别，形成良性循环，硅谷创业与创投 活跃，表明该领域潜力巨大。 AI 相关算力占总体经济比例仍小，增长空间大。训练与推理算力 1:1， 表明当前处于早期投入阶段。机器人作为 AI 应用，正处于加速发展基点， 如 Figure 公司已开始量产。 美国市场关注买气链公司如淘淘车业、科沃斯，以及在北美市场打开市 场的中国机器人公司如宇树。这些公司通过亚马逊等渠道进入海外市场， 值得关注。 美国科技大厂资本支出 ROI 显著高于中国企业，表明北美市场机会更多， 应关注北美市场机会以提升回报率。 美国 AI 产业高速增长导致 AI 相关人员工资上涨，AI 技术替代部分人类 工作，形成 ROI 正循环，推动 AI 投资热潮，并蔓延到消费品价格，加速 通胀。 美国市场对科技产品消费意愿强烈，利好机器人和电动车行业。高人工 成本使得机器人替代效率更高，消费者对高价科技产品接受度高。 全球 AI 数据视角看机器人市场 20251010 机器人作为 AI 应用的一部分，其发展情况如何？ 以 Figure 公司为例，他 ...

贸易战影响下，如何调整机器人板块的投资策略 20251012 摘要 Figure AI 发布 Figure 03，定位为通用型机器人，全面升级 Helix 系统， 目标四年内生产 10 万台；小鹏和特斯拉也即将发布新一代人形机器人 产品，预示行业技术快速迭代。 特斯拉链四季度迎来重要更新，包括业绩会和股东大会，预计发布 Optimism V3 代机器人，重大催化因素明确，对板块行情持乐观态度。 特朗普拟对中国商品加征 100%关税，历史经验表明短期市场或有恐慌， 但考虑到特斯拉机器人催化，回调或是投资机会，中国供应链的成本优 势仍具竞争力。 人工智能领域头部创业公司估值飞速提升，人形机器人主机厂市值有望 重构，关注小鹏、赛力斯及优必选等标的。 短期关税影响情绪，长期催化不断，建议关注拓普、银轮、均胜等汽车 行业相关标的，回调或是特斯拉链最佳上车机会。 贸易战背景下，稀土、镁铝合金、国产芯片、传感器四大细分板块或将 受益，稀土竞争格局较好，镁铝合金可减轻机器人重量，国产芯片自主 可控需求增强，传感器需求大幅增加。 特斯拉三代机器人对传感器需求增加，国内上市公司大力投入研发，摄 像头、激光雷达、力传感器等领域值得 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Robotics Sector Industry Overview - The robotics sector is experiencing significant momentum, particularly with the upcoming release of Tesla's third-generation robot, which is expected to drive optimism for order volumes in 2026 [1][2] - The market anticipates further policy and subsidy support for humanoid robots, with potential industry space exceeding a baseline estimate of 1 million units [1][4] Key Points and Arguments - **Market Performance**: The robotics sector has shown strong performance in 2025, particularly in Q1, with a recent influx of capital following Musk's announcement about the third-generation robot [2] - **Impact of Personnel Changes**: The recent departure of a core AI member from Tesla caused a short-term market pullback; however, the overall impact on the Optimus project is considered limited [3] - **Technological Advancements**: The third-generation robot will feature significant upgrades in joint freedom, actuator positioning, and motor types, which may create new investment opportunities and necessitate adjustments in the supply chain [6] - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: The humanoid robot supply chain supports multiple product types, with leading suppliers having advantages in upstream segments, indicating broad development potential [5] Important but Overlooked Content - **Investment Recommendations**: Investors are advised to focus on order fulfillment and the diffusion of new technologies. Established sectors like TIRE ONE and PEEK materials are seen as having strong certainty, while new technologies require sufficient capital investment from supply chain companies [7] - **Emerging Technologies**: Key technologies to watch include automatic motors, cycloidal gear reducers, and advanced materials like high molecular polyethylene and TEC cooling systems [9][10] - **Market Trends**: The humanoid robot sector's transaction volume reached 1.95 trillion yuan, reflecting a 27% week-over-week increase, outperforming the broader market [11] - **Future Catalysts**: Anticipated catalysts include Tesla's Q3 earnings call and the shareholder meeting, which are expected to influence market sentiment positively [13] Noteworthy Events - The Ministry of Science and Technology has emphasized breakthroughs in human-robot technology, with significant advancements in multimodal perception and deep intelligence integration [12] - Figure AI's completion of a Series C funding round exceeding $1 billion, with a post-money valuation of $39 billion, highlights the growing investment interest in the robotics sector [12] Investment Suggestions - Recommended companies include 德昌电机控股 (Dachang Motor Holdings), 伟创电气 (Weichuang Electric), and others that are well-positioned in the supply chain and technology landscape [14]