证券研究报告·海外公司点评·资讯科技器材(HS) 小米集团-W（01810.HK） 2025H1 业绩点评：汽车毛利率再创新高，手 机高端化持续推进 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 270,970 | 365,906 | 491,829 | 628,447 | 726,720 | | 同比(%) | (3.24) | 35.04 | 34.41 | 27.78 | 15.64 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 17,475 | 23,658 | 39,603 | 53,356 | 65,931 | | 同比(%) | 606.34 | 35.38 | 67.40 | 34.73 | 23.57 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.67 | 0.91 | 1.52 | 2.05 | 2.53 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 72.78 | 53.76 | 32.11 | 23.84 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's founder Lei Jun stated that the experience with the Xuanjie O1 chip has exceeded expectations, and the company is considering applying the second generation of self-developed chips in vehicles [1] Group 1: Chip Development - The self-developed chip requires a research and development cycle of three to four years [1] - The first generation of the chip was focused on technology validation, resulting in a limited production quantity [1] - The next step involves fully self-developing a four-in-one domain controller to prepare for future applications of Xiaomi's self-developed chips in vehicles [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the launch of Xiaomi's first SUV model, YU7, priced at 253,500 yuan, emphasizing its competitive features and safety standards [3][6]. - Xiaomi's CEO Lei Jun stated that safety is the foundation of their vehicle design, and the YU7 outperforms competitors like Model Y and Cayenne in various space metrics [6]. - The YU7 has undergone extensive testing over 539 days, covering 296 cities and accumulating 6.49 million kilometers, demonstrating its performance in extreme weather conditions [7]. Group 2 - Xiaomi reported a 47% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 2025, with total revenue reaching 111.3 billion yuan, indicating strong market performance [7]. - The company has maintained its position among the top three smartphone manufacturers globally for 19 consecutive quarters [7]. - Xiaomi plans to invest an additional 200 billion yuan in research and development over the next five years, aiming for significant advancements by its 20th anniversary [7].

Group 1 - Xiaomi officially launched its first SUV model, YU7, with a starting price of 253,500 yuan for the standard version, 279,900 yuan for the Pro version, and 329,900 yuan for the Max version [1][3] - The YU7 is available in nine color options, including Gem Green, Lava Orange, Titanium Metal, Shadow Blue, Flowing Gold Pink, Danxia Purple, Deep Sea Blue, Cambrian Gray, and Pearl White [3] - Xiaomi's CEO Lei Jun emphasized the importance of safety in electric vehicles, stating that the YU7 outperforms competitors like Model Y and Cayenne in various space metrics [5] Group 2 - The YU7 has undergone extensive testing over 539 days, covering 2.65 million kilometers across 296 cities, including extreme conditions [5] - Xiaomi reported a 47% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 2025, with total revenue reaching 111.3 billion yuan, and the company has maintained a position among the top three global smartphone manufacturers for 19 consecutive quarters [5] - The company plans to invest an additional 200 billion yuan in research and development over the next five years, aiming for significant advancements by its 20th anniversary [5]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's chairman Lei Jun announced that the company plans to invest 200 billion yuan in research and development over the next five years, from 2026 to 2030, aiming for significant advancements by the time of its 20th anniversary [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Xiaomi reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 47%, achieving a total revenue of 111.3 billion yuan, marking the strongest financial report in the company's history [1] - Xiaomi's smartphones have maintained a position among the top three globally for 19 consecutive quarters [1] Brand Recognition - Xiaomi ranked second among the top 50 global brands in China for 2025 [1] Product Development - The company officially launched and began mass production of its self-developed Xuanjie chip [1]

Group 1 - Xiaomi smartphones have maintained a position in the global top three for 19 consecutive quarters [1] - In 2025, Xiaomi ranked second among the top 50 global brands from China [1] - The company has officially launched and mass-produced its self-developed Xuanjie chip [1] Group 2 - Xiaomi plans to invest an additional 200 billion yuan in research and development over the next five years [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent negative events surrounding Xiaomi's automotive venture have led to a trust crisis for Lei Jun and the company, challenging their previously established image of sincerity and responsibility [3][4][6] Group 1: Negative Events Impacting Trust - Incidents involving Xiaomi car owners, including high-speed driving and accidents, have raised concerns about the safety and social responsibility of Xiaomi's vehicles [3] - A fatal accident following Lei Jun's claims about end-to-end autonomous driving has intensified public scrutiny regarding Xiaomi's vehicle quality and safety [3] - Allegations of false advertising related to the carbon fiber hood and issues with compensation for dissatisfied customers have further damaged Xiaomi's reputation [3][4] - The design similarities of Xiaomi's SU7 to Porsche have led to accusations of imitation, reinforcing negative perceptions about Xiaomi's innovation capabilities [6] Group 2: Efforts to Regain Trust - Xiaomi's introduction of the YU7 model and the self-developed Xuanjie chip is seen as an attempt to shift focus from the ongoing trust crisis [4][6] - Despite high initial attention, public sentiment regarding the YU7 and Xuanjie chip remains skeptical, particularly concerning the authenticity of the self-developed claims [4][6] - The YU7's design, while visually appealing, has been criticized for lacking originality and core technological advancements compared to competitors like BYD and Huawei [6][11] Group 3: Recommendations for Recovery - To rebuild trust, Xiaomi must genuinely address issues rather than deflecting them, emphasizing sincerity in their crisis management approach [8][9] - Acknowledging the fundamental differences between marketing consumer electronics and automotive products is crucial; the company should adopt a more respectful attitude towards the complexities of car manufacturing [9][11] - Increasing investment in original technology and research and development is essential for long-term success, as current strategies rely heavily on marketing and resource integration rather than innovation [11][13][15]

Group 1: Technology Developments - DeepSeek released the open-source version R1, which reportedly matches the performance of OpenAI's latest o3 model [2] - ByteDance announced the internal ban on third-party AI programming tools, opting for its own Trae tool, which is based on the doubao-1.5-pro model [3] - Honor confirmed its entry into the robotics industry, showcasing a robot that has achieved a record running speed of 4m/s [3] - Apple introduced self-service repair for iPads, providing users with manuals and original parts for various models [4] Group 2: Financial Performance - Nvidia reported a first-quarter net profit of $18.78 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, with revenues of $44.1 billion, up 69% [6] - HP's second-quarter net revenue reached $13.2 billion, reflecting a 3.3% year-over-year growth [7] - Kingsoft reported a first-quarter revenue of 2.338 billion yuan, marking a 9% increase [8] Group 3: Investment and Financing - Horizon Robotics' subsidiary, DiGua Robotics, completed a $100 million Series A financing round, focusing on providing a comprehensive product system for robotics [9] Group 4: New Product Innovations - Apple received a patent for a new wearable device named "Wearable Loop," designed for versatile attachment to various surfaces and objects [10]

Group 1 - DJI is entering the vacuum cleaner market with its first product expected to launch in June after over four years of development [4] - Changan Automobile's chairman responded to the hiring of Yao Anna at Avita, emphasizing the importance of brand promotion and leveraging resources from Huawei and other partners [6][8] - Apple's price reduction strategy has led to a significant increase in iPhone 16 Pro shipments, with a 2.8 times surge in activation volume, reclaiming the top market share in China [9][10] Group 2 - Honor has confirmed its entry into the robotics industry, showcasing a robot that has set a new record for running speed at 4m/s [10] - BYD addressed concerns regarding a dealer's financial issues, attributing them to reckless expansion and leverage, while offering support to the affected dealer group [12][13] - Great Wall's chairman criticized the "zero-kilometer used car" phenomenon, highlighting the need for industry discussions on this issue [15] Group 3 - SHEIN is reportedly preparing to submit its IPO application in Hong Kong within weeks, aiming for a listing by the end of the year [16] - Neta Auto's founder faces potential loss of control as shareholders move to convene a board meeting to dismiss him amid significant financial losses [17] - Changan Automobile is undergoing a structural transformation, appointing product CEOs for its brands to enhance product and marketing integration [18] Group 4 - ByteDance announced plans to ban third-party AI development software, opting for its in-house tool Trae as a replacement [18] - Chevrolet is reportedly on the verge of exiting the Chinese market, with new product launches indefinitely postponed [20] - Horizon Robotics' subsidiary completed a $100 million financing round, indicating strong investor interest in its robotics technology [20]

Group 1 - A-shares showed mixed performance on May 28, with the Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588200) declining by 0.34% despite some constituent stocks like Yuanjie Technology rising over 3% [1] - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588200) has seen a net inflow of over 2.8 billion yuan recently, accumulating more than 9.18 billion yuan in net inflows over the past five days [1] - The ETF tracks an index that selects stocks from the Sci-Tech Board related to semiconductor materials, equipment, design, manufacturing, packaging, and testing [1] Group 2 - The A-share merger and acquisition market is becoming increasingly active, particularly in the semiconductor sector, with companies like Haiguang Information merging with Zhongke Shuguang [2] - More than ten semiconductor and chip companies have announced M&A activities this year, driven by supportive policies and a recovery in the semiconductor industry [2] - Future M&A hotspots are expected to focus on emerging sectors such as new energy, semiconductors, and biomedicine, which require significant funding and technical support [2] Group 3 - The launch of the domestic 3nm chip "Xuanjie" marks a significant advancement in China's chip design capabilities, following major global competitors [3] - The 3nm chip is expected to reshape the global smartphone SoC landscape and drive innovation in the domestic semiconductor industry [3] - The consumer electronics sector continues to recover, with AI technology driving high demand for AI infrastructure and hardware upgrades [3]