智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，考虑到玖龙纸业(02689)自制浆产量及吨利润超预期，上调FY26- 27e净利润32%、39%至36亿元、40亿元，对应FY26-27 P/B为0.6x、0.5x;该行维持跑赢行业评级，上调 目标价29%至9港元，目标价对应FY26-27 P/B 0.7x、0.6x，隐含21%上行空间。 2025年下半年，由于废纸价格提涨、行业步入传统旺季，箱板瓦楞纸大幅提涨，该行判断吨纸利润平稳 修复，预计吨净利在100元上下。往前看，该行认为2026年行业供给基本收尾，确定性较高仅4Q26太阳 纸业60万吨产能(占行业销量低于1%)，需求则平稳增长，该行看好板块周期筑底、后续迎来供需面修复 行情;玖龙是国内最大的箱板瓦楞纸龙头(市占率25%左右)，业绩受益板块修复弹性明显。 白纸：自制浆产量及吨净利或超预期 公司披露FY25纸浆产量300万吨，考虑到新增浆线投产爬坡，该行预计1HFY26纸浆产量在200万吨以 上，是此次业绩超预期的核心增量;从纸种拆分来看，考虑到公司自制浆自供率接近100%，该行认为公 司相比同行的超额利润正在进一步放大，该行预计白纸(即文化纸、白卡纸，会计核算计入 ...

中金发布研报称，考虑到玖龙纸业(02689)自制浆产量及吨利润超预期，上调FY26-27e净利润32%、39% 至36亿元、40亿元，对应FY26-27P/B为0.6x、0.5x;该行维持跑赢行业评级，上调目标价29%至9港元， 目标价对应FY26-27P/B0.7x、0.6x，隐含21%上行空间。 中金主要观点如下： 1HFY26归母净利润超出该行及市场预期 公司公告1HFY26业绩预告：实现盈利21.5-22.5亿元，扣除永续债利息后业绩为19.5-20.5亿元，同比增 加315%-337%，业绩超出该行及市场预期，总体来看，该行预计公司销量约1,200万吨，吨纸净利约160 元，业绩超预期核心在自制浆成本和产量。 根据公司公告，公司目前仅剩余三条合计200万吨化学浆拟于4Q26-1Q27投产，投产地点分别为天津、 重庆及广西北海，该行认为天津及重庆基地主要为传统箱板瓦楞纸，公司此举或通过增加本色浆纤维优 化箱板纸结构，放大传统黑纸系盈利优势。此外，公司指引FY26资本开支在110亿元左右(FY23-25年资 本开支分别在177亿元、128亿元、148亿元)，已处于本轮资本开支收尾年份，伴随公司利润、现金 ...

| 需求端：近期木浆用纸集中发布涨价函，目前仅有白卡纸落实情况较好，双胶纸再次集中发布涨价函，关注落实情况。 | | --- | | 库存端：截至2025年11月27日，中国纸浆主流港口样本库存量:217.2万吨，较上期去库0.1万吨，环比下降0.05%，库 | | 存量在本周期整体变动不大，趋势呈现小幅去库的走势。 | | 策略:加拿大浆厂出现减产情况，纸浆供给端出现利多因素，同时暂无新仓单注册,近月合约交割资源偏紧，纸浆期货 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 TG国贸期货 ,数据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心 杨璐琳 纸浆价格数据 | | | 2025年12月3日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年12月3日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5458 | 2.44% | 4. 80% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5450 | 0.00% | 0. 93% | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 26-year Russian needle pulp. The futures price may be priced based on Russian needle pulp and high-quality softwood pulp. The current futures price is close to the import cost of the delivery product, and the room for further increase is limited. It is recommended to close the 12 - 1 reverse spread position [10] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 16, 2025, SP2601 was 5480, down 0.98% day - on - day and up 1.59% week - on - week; SP2511 was 4900, down 0.12% day - on - day and up 0.41% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5462, down 0.73% day - on - day and up 1.19% week - on - week [5] - **Spot Prices**: On November 16, 2025, the spot price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5550, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.91% week - on - week; that of Russian Needle was 5400, unchanged day - on - day and up 5.88% week - on - week; that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4400, unchanged day - on - day and up 3.53% week - on - week [5] - **Foreign Quotes**: The quotes of Chilean Silver Star and Brazilian Goldfish were 680 and 530 dollars respectively, down 2.86% and up 3.92% month - on - month; that of Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [5] - **Import Costs**: The import costs of Chilean Silver Star and Brazilian Goldfish were 5559 and 4344 respectively, down 2.83% and up 3.87% month - on - month; that of Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month - on - month [5] 2. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of knitting pulp was 69.1 tons, up 12.54% month - on - month; that of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in different periods. The pulp shipment volume in China in September 2025 was 187 tons, up 13.50% [5] - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 211 tons, up 6.1% from the previous period; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.2 tons [5] - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard also fluctuated in different periods [5] 3. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 16, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 500 with a quantile level of 0.951; that of Silver Star was 650 with a quantile level of 0.88 [5] - **Import Profit**: On November 16, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 9 with a quantile level of 0.594; that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 56 with a quantile level of 0.704 [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp fundamentals have not significantly improved, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 needle pulp contract, and the futures price may be priced according to the price of Russian needle pulp and high - quality softwood pulp. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained [11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 30, 2025, SP2601 was 5224, down 0.34% day - on - day and 0.50% week - on - week; SP2511 was 4846, up 0.21% day - on - day and down 0.16% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5264, down 0.23% day - on - day and 0.49% week - on - week [6]. - **Spot Prices**: On the same day, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian needle pulp was 5100, unchanged; and hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250, unchanged [6]. - **Foreign Quotes**: The quote of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars, down 2.86% month - on - month; the quote of a certain product type was 530 dollars, up 3.92% month - on - month; and the quote of Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [6]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% month - on - month; and the import cost of Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month - on - month [6]. 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, up 12.54% month - on - month, and the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 tons, up 4.50% [6]. - **Inventory**: As of October 30, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 206.1 tons, up 0.3% month - on - month, showing a narrow - range inventory accumulation trend [11]. - **Demand**: The current demand for paper products is basically stable, and paper prices have not rebounded significantly. The positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [11]. 3. Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 30, 2025, the Russian needle pulp basis was 254, with a quantile level of 0.912; the Silver Star basis was 654, with a quantile level of 0.881 [6]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59, with a quantile level of 0.512; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with a quantile level of 0.556 [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The sentiment of macro commodities has turned positive recently, and prices are expected to rise in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On August 6, 2025, the price of SP2601 was 5428, with a daily increase of 0.44% and a decrease of 1.34% compared to the Japanese version; SP2605 was 5404, with a daily decrease of 0.30% and a decrease of 1.22% compared to the Japanese version; SP2509 was 5170, with a daily increase of 0.19% and a decrease of 2.93% compared to the Japanese version [1] - The spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.18% compared to the Japanese version; Russian Needle was 5180, unchanged and down 4.43%; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4080, unchanged and down 1.69% [1] Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, down 2.70% from the previous period; Chilean Star was 500 dollars, down 10.71%; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged [1] - The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% from the previous period; Chilean Star was 4101, down 10.60%; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged [1] Supply - In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, down 6.09% from May; broadleaf pulp was 143.5 tons, up 10.98% [1] - The shipment volume of W20 to China in May 2025 was 140, up 3.30% from April [1] - The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in July 2025 [1] Inventory - As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of Chinese pulp mainstream ports was 210.5 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from the previous period, a 1.8% decline [1] - The inventory of the futures delivery warehouse also showed certain changes during the period [1] Demand - The production of major finished papers decreased slightly this week, and the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] Valuation - On August 6, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 10, with a quantile level of 0.72; Silver Star basis was 680, with a quantile level of 0.904 [1] - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 34, with a quantile level of 0.545; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 21, with a quantile level of 0.613 [1]