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债市收益率回调 理财公司发“定心丸”
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-07-31 16:47
Core Viewpoint - The bond market has entered an adjustment phase, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from 1.6653% on July 15 to 1.7578% on July 30, before retreating to 1.7144% on July 31. This adjustment has impacted fixed-income wealth management products, leading to a decrease in their yields [3][4][5]. Market Adjustment Impact - The adjustment in the bond market has led to a decline in the average annualized yield of open-ended fixed-income wealth management products to 2.81%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][4]. - As of July 21-27, the number of existing wealth management products increased by 245 to a total of 27,803, accounting for 68.45% of the market [3]. Investor Sentiment and Reactions - Many investors have expressed concerns over declining yields, with some considering redeeming their products due to perceived losses [3][4]. - Wealth management companies have emphasized that the current market adjustment is within a reasonable range and advised investors to remain calm and avoid panic selling [4][7]. Economic and Policy Context - The adjustment is attributed to multiple factors, including the unexpected introduction of "anti-involution" policies and the launch of major infrastructure projects, which have shifted market sentiment towards higher-risk assets [4][5]. - The People's Bank of China has taken measures to support market liquidity, including a significant reverse repo operation, which is seen as a positive factor for bond market stability [7]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the current pressures, several wealth management firms maintain a positive outlook for the medium to long-term bond market, citing ongoing economic recovery and the fundamental support for bond pricing [5][6]. - Historical data suggests that a majority of wealth management products tend to recover their net value within one to two months following a market adjustment [7][8]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Wealth management firms recommend a balanced investment approach, suggesting that investors allocate smaller amounts for higher returns while keeping larger amounts in stable assets to mitigate risks [8]. - The current market conditions are viewed as an opportunity to invest in high-quality assets, with the overall redemption pressure on bank wealth management products remaining relatively low compared to previous years [8].
5月央行信贷收支表要点解读:非银存款高增背后:同业扩表与存款搬家
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-06-19 07:49
银行 2025 年 06 月 19 日 投资评级:看好(维持) 行业走势图 数据来源:聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 银行 沪深300 liuchengxiang@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790523060002 负债端:大行非银存款延续高增,4-5 月累计新增 2.6 万亿元 5 月大行负债端仍然延续 4 月非银存款大幅增长的态势,推动存贷增速差继续向 上修复。我们认为这可能反映两个现象:一是银行阶段性向非银同业扩表,二是 存款降息后搬家效应初步显现(分流向理财及其他资管产品、股市等)。从其他 存款性公司资产负债表来看,5 月"对其他金融机构债权"增加 6226 亿元,较 4 月增量明显修复,或反映银行向非银融出恢复,以及部分银行在预期 6 月负债缺 口较大时提前增加短债、货基等短期资产储备。由于有较大比例定存尚未到期, 推测脱媒现象或陆续反映。 评估下阶段的路径,居民存款或主要分流至风险偏好接近的现金管理类、短债 理财,而股市涨幅缓慢时分流存款效能较弱。5 月"对其他金融性公司负债"和 "计入 M2 的存款"增幅接近,可能说明 ...