报告摘要 整体观点： 1、本周受关税政策因素反复，电新板块波动加大。10月16日根据高工产研统计数据，2025Q3中国储能锂 电出货165GWh，2025Q1-Q3合计出货430GWh，预计全年580GWh，同比增速超75%，储能及锂电依然是 电新板块景气度最高的细分领域。 （1）固态电池：催化依然较多，新华社报道碘离子改善界面接触、聚合材料电解质骨架、含氟聚醚材料 加固电解质等科研进展；叠加锂电板块自身轮动，市场也由前期的设备炒作，逐步转向材料炒作，我们认 为后续轮动及共振会持续。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 3、本周末市场较为关注财政部、海关总署、税务总局发布的《关于调整风力发电等增值税政策的公 告》，其中取消陆上风电增值税即征即退50%的政策，海上风电优惠则 ...

Core Viewpoint - The solid-state battery anode materials are primarily silicon-based and lithium metal anodes, with silicon-based anodes currently advancing faster in industrialization. The development of lithium metal anodes is slower compared to silicon-based anodes. Solid-state electrolytes offer wider electrochemical windows and higher chemical stability, which can effectively suppress lithium dendrite formation, indicating a short to medium-term trend towards silicon-based anodes in solid-state batteries, with future iterations expected for lithium metal anodes [2][10]. Summary by Sections Anode Materials Overview - The main types of solid-state battery anode materials are silicon-based and lithium metal anodes, with silicon-based anodes showing faster industrialization progress. Lithium metal anodes have high capacity and low electrochemical potential, potentially achieving energy densities above 400 Wh/kg when paired with suitable battery designs [2][10]. Advantages and Disadvantages of Anode Materials - **Graphite**: Good stability and long cycle life, but low energy density and weak fast charging capabilities [3]. - **Silicon-based Anodes**: High energy density and abundant resources, but significant volume expansion, short cycle life, and high costs [3]. - **Metal Aluminum**: High energy density and fast charging advantages, but can produce lithium dendrites [3]. Current Trends in Silicon-based Anodes - Silicon-carbon anodes are currently the preferred choice for solid-state batteries, offering high energy density, safety, and system compatibility. With over 30% silicon content in solid-state batteries, energy density can exceed 500 Wh/kg [5][6]. Safety and Compatibility - Silicon-based anodes have a lower lithium embedding potential of approximately 0.5V, reducing the likelihood of lithium plating during fast charging and preventing dendrite penetration that could cause short circuits. The mechanical modulus of solid electrolytes can buffer the volume changes of silicon-based materials, reducing interfacial resistance and enhancing battery performance [6]. Industry Players and Developments - Numerous companies are emerging in the silicon-based anode market, including established players like BetterRay, Sanyuan, and Puli, which have rapid verification and marketization speeds. New entrants like Tianmu Xian Dao and He Chuang Energy are also making strides [6][7]. Industrialization Progress of Silicon-based Anodes - Companies like BetterRay and Sanyuan are advancing their production capabilities, with BetterRay expected to achieve mass supply by 2025 and Sanyuan completing trial production by the end of 2024. Other companies are also establishing production lines and expanding capacities [7][8]. Lithium Metal Anode Potential - Lithium metal anodes have significant potential in solid-state batteries due to their low density, low chemical potential, and high specific capacity. However, challenges such as lithium dendrite growth need to be addressed for commercial viability. Companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Ningde Times are already working on lithium metal anode-based solid-state batteries [10][11].

Group 1 - The rapid development of the new energy industry has significantly increased the market scale of lithium-ion batteries, with an annual growth rate exceeding 20% in recent years [5] - In 2024, the shipment volume of cathode materials is expected to reach 3.2 million tons, while anode materials will exceed 2.1 million tons, indicating a strong growth trend [5] - Graphite anodes dominate the market, accounting for over 95% of the total, while silicon-based and other composite anodes represent less than 5% [5] Group 2 - Graphite anodes possess a hexagonal layered structure that allows lithium ions to embed and extract easily, making them suitable for battery charging and discharging cycles [6] - The theoretical specific capacity of graphite is 372 mAh/g, with commercial products typically ranging from 330 to 360 mAh/g, meeting energy density needs for most applications [7] - Graphite anodes exhibit excellent cycling performance, with lifespans exceeding 1000 cycles for consumer electronics and over 3000 cycles for power batteries [7] Group 3 - Despite their advantages, graphite anodes face limitations, including a capacity ceiling close to their theoretical value, which restricts their use in high-energy-density applications like electric vehicles [8] - Fast charging performance is limited due to kinetic constraints, leading to potential safety hazards from lithium dendrite formation [8] - Low-temperature adaptability is poor, with capacity loss exceeding 30% at -30°C, limiting their use in cold environments [8] Group 4 - The industry is exploring alloy materials with higher capacities, such as silicon, phosphorus, tin, and aluminum, which can significantly exceed the capacity of graphite [9] - Silicon-based anodes have undergone four generations of technological iterations, focusing on improving volume expansion, cycling life, and initial efficiency [9][10] - By 2030, silicon-based anodes are expected to achieve a market penetration of 30%, with phosphorus-based materials expanding in high-end applications [9] Group 5 - The first generation of silicon-based anodes utilized a physical modification approach, resulting in a core-shell structure that reduced volume expansion but had short cycling life and low initial coulombic efficiency [11][12] - The second generation improved cycling stability and capacity through chemical modification, but still faced challenges with initial efficiency and conductivity [13][14] - The third generation introduced pre-lithiation techniques, significantly enhancing initial efficiency and cycling life, but increased complexity and costs [15][16] Group 6 - The fourth generation of silicon-based anodes employs a porous carbon framework to stabilize silicon particles and enhance conductivity, achieving a balance between capacity, cycling, and cost [17][18] - This generation shows significant improvements in specific capacity, volume expansion, initial efficiency, and cycling performance, making it a promising direction for future applications [19] - However, challenges remain regarding production costs, structural stability over long cycles, and electrolyte compatibility [20] Group 7 - The demand for silicon-carbon composite materials is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market space of hundreds of billions by 2030 [24] - Companies like Zhangjiagang Bowei are positioning themselves as collaborative suppliers, leveraging their technological advantages to partner with leading firms in the industry [25] - The industry is currently in the early stages of commercialization, with ongoing efforts to optimize production processes and expand application scenarios [21][24]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Maintain "Overweight" [1][60] Core Views - The lithium battery materials industry rebounded by 1.53%, outperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 1.79 percentage points [3][12] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E) increased by 0.51x to 31.5x, currently at 20.8% of the long-term historical percentile [3][12] - The market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with many segments facing overcapacity and high inventory levels, leading to low profitability [60] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Over the past month, the industry has shown relative returns of -1%, -8% over three months, and -3% over twelve months, with absolute returns of -2%, -10%, and 7% respectively [2] Positive Material Trends - Last week, the price of lithium carbonate slightly rebounded by 0.25%, while the prices of various ternary precursors continued to decline [4][14] - The price of phosphoric iron lithium remained stable, with production slightly increasing by 0.86% [31] Negative Material Trends - High-nickel ternary material prices continued to decline, with significant downward pressure on the prices of negative electrode materials due to weak downstream demand [6][48] - The production and operating rates of negative electrode materials decreased significantly, with a 2.46% drop in production [48] Electrolyte and Separator Insights - Electrolyte prices remained stable, but production and operating rates continued to decline, indicating a supply surplus [42] - Separator prices remained flat, with a slight increase in production and inventory, but the market remains oversupplied [51][56] Investment Recommendations - The current market conditions suggest that the overall demand is weak, particularly in the power market, while the supply side continues to face overcapacity issues [60] - The industry is expected to maintain a low profitability level, with valuation recovery dependent on marginal profit improvement expectations [60]

高能密、高倍率、高安全、超快充等性能要求下，锂电池行业由"量变"转向"质变"的发展路径进一步明显。进行锂电池技术创新与迭代，是 锂电各个细分环节实现"质变"的主要途径。 目前，锂电池技术创新可分为"电池结构技术创新"和"电池材料技术创新"。电池结构技术创新包括CTP等系统结构创新、大圆柱及短刀等电 芯结构创新、全极耳等工艺结构发展以及半/全固态等新技术创新等；电池材料技术创新则包括正极材料、负极材料、隔膜、电解液、铜箔、 导电剂、粘结剂等材料的创新升级。 其中在负极材料端， 硅基负极是较为明确的技术创新路线，已有多家企业进行技术与产业化的布局，目前正处于放量前夕。 01 硅基负极VS石墨负极： 比容量高、快充性能优异 当前锂电市场主要以石墨负极为主，天然石墨及人造石墨合计占市场份额达到98%甚至更高。 其中天然石墨成本较低、首次库伦效率高，但膨胀率较高、循环寿命较低、电解液相容性差、安全性一般，实际比容量340mAh/g左右。 人造石墨同样具有较高的首次效应，循环寿命优异大于1000次，相较于天然石墨安全性更高，成本由于工艺成熟性，目前处于较低水平。 但人造石墨的问题在于比容量已接近理论天花板370mAh/g ...