| NIO 蔚来 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 5.100 + +0.190 +3.87% | | 收盘价 12/26 16:00 美东 | | 5.200↑ 0.100 +1.96% | | 盘前价 12/29 04:05 美东 | | 三五四年5月 | | ● 快捷交易 | | 最高价 5.150 | 开盘价 4.900 | 成交量 4909.47万 | | 最低价 4.900 | 昨收价 4.910 | 成交额 2.5亿 | | 平均价 5.087 | 市盈率TM 亏损 | 总市值 126.15亿 (--) | | 振 幅 5.09% | 市盈率(静) 亏损 | 总股本 24.73亿 | | 换手率 2.77% | 市净率 24.056 | 流通值 90.47亿 | | 52周最高 8.020 | 委 比 42.86% | 流通股 17.74亿 | | 52周最低 3.020 | 量 比 1.96 | 色 主 1股 | | 历史最高 66.990 | 股息TTM -- | 换股比率 1.00 | | 历史最低 1.190 1 the | 股息率ITM -- | | | ADR换 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains a "outperform" rating for NIO-SW (09866) with unchanged profit forecasts for 2025/26 and target prices of HKD 68 / USD 8.8 [1] Group 1: Product and Pricing - The third-generation ES8 has increased dimensions compared to the current model, with a length increase of 181mm, width increase of 21mm, height increase of 50mm, and a wheelbase increase of 60mm [1] - The pricing for the ES8 is set at RMB 406,800 / 446,800, while the BaaS battery leasing option lowers the purchase threshold to RMB 298,800 / 338,800, reflecting a price reduction of RMB 10,000 compared to the pre-sale price and lower than the previous model [1] Group 2: Technological Innovation - The ET9 model showcases the company's technological innovation capabilities, integrating 12 advanced innovations including the self-developed NX9031 chip, SkyOS operating system, 900V high-voltage platform, and steer-by-wire with fully active suspension, demonstrating the strength of the integration of intelligence and electrification [1] - As of August, cumulative sales of the ET9 reached 2,061 units, and the newly released Horizon Special Edition enhances luxury attributes with features like zero-order smooth coating, 23-inch exclusive wheels, and finely embroidered interiors [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, the company is expected to benefit from product cycles and internal operational improvements, with the existing 5566 model anticipated to support a rebound in sales through recent adjustments to the standard configuration of 100 kWh batteries [2] - The initiation of the internal CBU reform (Cell Business Unit) is expected to enhance operational and organizational efficiency, as well as the market competitiveness of models, with gradual optimization of cost efficiency anticipated [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains a "outperform" rating for NIO-SW (09866), with target prices set at HKD 68 and USD 8.8 for 2025/26, while keeping the non-GAAP profit forecasts unchanged [1][2] Group 1: Product and Pricing Strategy - The third-generation ES8 has been enhanced in dimensions, being 181mm longer, 21mm wider, and 50mm taller, with a wheelbase increase of 60mm compared to the previous model [1] - The pricing for the ES8 is set at CNY 406,800 and CNY 446,800, with the BaaS battery leasing option lowering the purchase threshold to CNY 298,800 and CNY 338,800, reflecting a CNY 10,000 reduction from the pre-sale price and lower than the previous model [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements - NIO has consistently focused on core technologies, with the ET9 showcasing the company's innovation capabilities through 12 advanced features, including the self-developed NX9031 chip, SkyOS operating system, 900V high-voltage platform, and steer-by-wire with fully active suspension [1] - As of August, cumulative sales of the ET9 reached 2,061 units, and the launch of the Horizon Special Edition enhances luxury attributes with features like smooth zero-stage coating, 23-inch exclusive wheels, and finely embroidered interiors [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the product cycle and internal operational improvements, with the existing 5566 model anticipated to see a sales rebound due to recent adjustments in the standard configuration of 100 kWh battery [2] - The initiation of the internal CBU reform is expected to enhance operational and organizational efficiency, as well as the market competitiveness of the models, with gradual optimization of cost efficiency anticipated [2]

Core Insights - NIO's stock rose nearly 4% pre-market, reaching $7.3, while its H-shares surged 11.46% to HKD 56.9 [1] - Deutsche Bank's research report indicates that the ES8 has received approximately 100,000 cancellable orders since the pre-sale began on August 21, with a starting price of RMB 416,800 [1] - The final pricing for the third-generation ES8 will be announced during the 2025 NIO Day event, with analysts expecting a reduction of RMB 7,000 to RMB 17,000 from the competitive pre-sale price [1]

Core Viewpoint - NIO's financial performance is under pressure due to its battery swap model, which has led to significant losses, while the company anticipates a 13% revenue growth in Q2 2025 driven by increased vehicle deliveries and product diversification [1][20]. Revenue Growth - In 2024, NIO's total revenue is projected to reach 65.73 billion yuan, representing an 18.2% year-on-year increase, primarily due to a significant rise in delivery volumes and optimized product structure [1]. - NIO delivered 221,970 vehicles in 2024, marking a 38.7% increase compared to the previous year, which directly contributed to the growth in automotive sales revenue [1]. Product Diversification - NIO continues to expand its product line to cater to diverse consumer needs, covering various market segments from compact SUVs to luxury sedans, with price ranges from 300,000 to 800,000 yuan [4]. - Key models like ES6 and EC6 have gained widespread consumer recognition due to their performance, comfort, and advanced technology, significantly driving revenue growth [5]. Profitability Challenges - NIO is facing ongoing losses, with a projected net loss of 22.4 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year, equating to over 60 million yuan in daily losses [6]. - High research and development costs reached 13.037 billion yuan in 2024, primarily focused on core areas such as autonomous driving and battery technology, which are expected to enhance product competitiveness but are unlikely to yield short-term profitability [6]. - Selling, general, and administrative expenses rose to 15.74 billion yuan in 2024, a 22.2% increase, driven by significant investments in marketing, brand building, and sales channel expansion [6]. Battery Swap Network Costs - The construction and operation of NIO's battery swap network have incurred substantial costs, with losses from the battery swap business amounting to 3.12 billion yuan in 2024 [9]. - As of the end of 2024, NIO had established over 2,300 battery swap stations, but the average daily service frequency per station was only 32, while breakeven requires 50 services per day [9]. Market Position and Competition - In Q1 2025, NIO maintained a growth trajectory with 42,094 vehicle deliveries, a 40.1% year-on-year increase, although its industry ranking fell to eighth place amid fierce competition [10]. - The NIO brand delivered 27,313 vehicles in Q1 2025, while the newly launched brand, Lido, contributed 14,781 vehicles, indicating a growing market presence [11]. Future Product Launches - NIO's Lido brand flagship SUV, Lido L90, is set to launch in Q2 2025, with pricing starting at 265,800 yuan for the six-seat version [16]. - The Lido L80, expected to launch in Q4 2025, aims to compete in the family vehicle segment, while the third-generation ES8 will also debut in Q4 2025, featuring significant technological upgrades [17].

Core Viewpoint - The video of NIO's founder Li Bin facing criticism from a long-time user highlights the growing dissatisfaction among customers regarding the rapid technological updates and perceived neglect of older models in the electric vehicle industry [1][2]. Group 1: Company Challenges - NIO is experiencing significant customer dissatisfaction due to issues such as lack of updates for older models, delayed features, and declining resale values compared to competitors [1][2]. - The electric vehicle industry is facing a fundamental shift from durable consumer goods to electronic consumer products, leading to a mismatch between traditional users' expectations of asset value retention and the rapid iteration cycles of smart electric vehicles [2][3]. - NIO's high-cost user ecosystem, which initially fostered strong customer loyalty, is becoming unsustainable as the company has accumulated losses exceeding 100 billion yuan from 2018 to 2024 [3]. Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - In response to the challenges, NIO has begun to adjust its brand positioning and product offerings, resulting in a record delivery of 31,305 new vehicles in August, a 55.2% year-on-year increase [3]. - The company has made difficult decisions, such as canceling lifetime benefits for early adopters, to ensure survival amid financial pressures [3][4]. - NIO is exploring solutions like transparent iteration schedules, establishing tiered benefit systems, and hardware upgrade pathways to address customer concerns and maintain brand loyalty [4].

Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of approximately 120.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of over 21% [1] - The automotive gross margin was 10.2%, compared to 9.2% in Q1 2024 and 13.1% in Q4 2024 [4] - The total revenue for Q1 2025 was 120.3 billion, with a gross profit of 919.6 million, reflecting a gross margin of 7.6% [3] Delivery and Sales - The company delivered approximately 42,100 new vehicles in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 40.1% [2] - The expected total delivery volume for Q2 2025 is projected to reach between 72,000 and 75,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.5% to 30.7% [1] Cost Control and Efficiency - The company has implemented a series of cost control measures starting from Q1 2025, including organizational restructuring and cross-brand integration [1] - The CFO stated that the company aims for structural improvement in overall cost efficiency starting from Q2 2025 [1] Future Outlook - The company anticipates achieving positive free cash flow within the year, with significant improvements in operational cash flow expected in Q2 2025 [4] - The founder expressed confidence in achieving profitability by Q4 2025, supported by new product launches and cost reduction efforts [5][6] Product Development - In 2025, the company plans to launch nine new models across its three brands, with six already released [5] - The third-generation ES8 is scheduled for release in Q4 2025, while two additional models from the LeDao brand are expected to launch in Q3 and Q4 2025 [5] Global Expansion - The company has shifted its global market entry strategy to partner with local firms rather than relying solely on direct sales [9] - Currently, the company has established partnerships in 15 markets and plans to continue expanding its global presence [9]

Core Insights - NIO showcased its three brands (NIO, Ladao, Firefly) at the 2025 Shanghai Auto Show, with the Ladao L90 making its debut as a flagship smart SUV [1] - The Ladao L90 features a single motor with a power output of 340 kW and a dual-motor version with a combined power of 440 kW, set to launch in Q3 of this year [1][2] - Ladao's first model, the L60, has sold over 30,000 units since its launch, indicating a strong performance in the SUV market despite not meeting initial sales expectations [2] Product Launches and Future Plans - Ladao plans to release its third model, the L80, in Q4 of this year, with expectations that new models will enhance brand profitability [2] - NIO aims to achieve quarterly profitability in Q4 2023, with Ladao expected to play a significant role in this goal [2] - The year 2025 is pivotal for NIO, with plans to launch nine new models across its brands, including the Ladao L90, L80, and new models from the Firefly brand [2]