Market Overview - The market is facing two major uncertainties: potential U.S. intervention in the Middle East conflict and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision [1] - U.S. stock futures have rebounded slightly, with the S&P 500 futures up approximately 0.2% [1][10] - European stocks have also seen a slight increase, with German and French stocks rising about 0.3% [2] - The MSCI Asia-Pacific index remained flat, indicating minimal changes in the Asia-Pacific region [3] Currency and Commodity Movements - The U.S. dollar index has decreased by about 0.1%, while the euro and yen have increased by approximately 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively [4] - U.S. Treasury yields have risen slightly, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by over 1 basis point [5] - Spot gold prices remained stable, while silver rose by about 0.3% [6] - Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices have continued to decline, with daily losses expanding to 1% [7][13] - European natural gas futures have surged over 1.4%, reaching above €40 per megawatt-hour, the highest since early April [8] Geopolitical and Economic Context - The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel has raised concerns about U.S. military involvement, with speculation about a potential attack discussed in a recent National Security Council meeting [9] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision, with the market anticipating no changes in June and July, but betting on nearly two rate cuts later this year [9] - The CEO of EFG Asset Management highlighted the uncertainty faced by the Federal Reserve due to various intertwined factors, including tariffs, energy price fluctuations, geopolitical risks, and the growing U.S. fiscal deficit [9] Investor Sentiment - The VIX index, which measures market volatility, has surpassed the critical level of 20, indicating increased investor anxiety amid the Middle East tensions [11] - Despite the geopolitical situation, the market is already facing numerous risks, including high stock valuations and unaccounted uncertainties such as tariff policies and fiscal uncertainties [11]

尽管制造业受高关税影响出现萎缩，但服务业仍保持韧性，美国4月ISM服务业PMI超预期，扭转了前一个月的下滑趋势。 该数据支持美元小幅上涨约0.2%，缓解了因美国贸易协议乐观情绪而导致的亚洲货币大幅升值，日元略微走软。新台币兑美元延续跌势，一度跌 0.4%至30.275。台湾证交所加权股价指数收盘变动不大，报20522.59点。 标普500指数期货一度跌0.4%。个股方面，福特汽车因关税担忧撤回财务指引，Palantir业绩未达预期，股价盘前重挫约10%。投资者关注美联储 周三的决议，市场普遍预期，在贸易战和强劲就业数据的矛盾中，美联储可能继续保持观望。 | = US 30 | 41,145.00 | 41,250.50 | 41,110.00 | -74.10 | -0.18% | 15:24:12 0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | = US 500 | 5,632.90 | 5,652.40 | 5,625.50 | -17.70 | -0.31% | 15:24:12 9 | | 트 US Tech 100 | 19,860.70 | 19 ...