智元链投资机会解读 20250709 摘要 智源机器人被邀约收购，突破市场预期，或成机器人产业发展新范式。 智源链在国内市场表现强劲，引领商业模式、产品定位和产业生态，相 关公司如东大利德链、奥比中光等有望在各应用场景实现新突破。 禾川科技完成股权激励，加大横向开发，预计 2025 年收入增速 15- 20%，大幅减亏，2026 年实现盈利。在人形机器人领域，禾川定位核 心零部件和总成，与志远、小鹏、华为等龙头厂商深度对接，并设立产 业基金投资传感器公司。 禾川科技人形机器人板块 2024 年营收约 500 万元，预计 2025 年出货 量达 3,000 万元。短期收入主要来自旋转总成和线性总成，以及代工业 务。已与国地中心、银桥、上海人形等签订订单，比亚迪、赛力斯和优 必选等公司已通过验场或审场。 恒立液压因特斯拉砍单及工程机械波动回调，市值约 900 亿，迎来长期 布局机会。预计未来 3-5 年拐点向上，挖掘机领域占比约 40%，国内市 场更新周期启动，2025 年挖掘机板块预计增长 10-20%，中挖油缸和 泵阀份额提升。 Q&A 智源链近期发生了哪些重要变化？ 智源链近期发生了一些显著变化，其中最重磅 ...

行情回顾 本周板块表现：上周（2025/06/02-2025/06/06）5 个交易日，SW 机械设备指数上涨 0.93%，在申万 31 个一级行 业分类中排名第 19；同期沪深 300 指数上涨 0.88%。2025 年至今表现：SW 机械设备指数上涨 7.29%，在申万 31 个一级行业分类中排名第 6；同期沪深 300 指数下跌 1.55%。 核心观点 投资建议 见"股票组合"。 风险提示 宏观经济变化风险；原材料价格波动风险；政策变化的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 Figure 机器人分拣快递新视频曝光，人形机器人商用化场景落地值得期待。6 月 6 日，Figure 机器人分拣快递 新视频曝光，可熟练对不同种类快递进行分拣，并能够将快递逐个码放整齐，让条形码方便扫描仪识别。操作 完全由端到端通用控制模型 Helix 自主驱动。此前，Figure 公司 2 月底发布 Helix VLA 机器人大模型，几个月 训练进步飞速，助力机器人实现更多复杂的运动与协作，加速工业场景商用化落地。我们认为，机器人板块股 价已回调充分，而今年是人形机器人量产元年，下一步人形机器人实现商业化场景落地值得期待，带动产 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月19日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-05-16 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3367.46 | 10179.59 | 3889.08 | 11346.56 | 2816.13 | 995.23 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -0.39 | -0.06 | -0.46 | 0.40 | 0.16 | -0.57 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 4356.47 | 6538.81 | 2088.35 | 2367.81 | 2984.45 | 171.83 | 宏观周报:宏观经济宏观周报-高频指标明显回升走强 固定收益投资策略:固定收益专题报告-从转债持有人数据，看机构投资 策略-机构转债配置行为研究（三） 固定收益专题研究:资金观察，货币瞭望：降准降息落地，资金面适度宽 松 固 定 收 益 快 评 : 可 交 换 私 募 债 跟 踪 - 私 募 EB 每 周 跟 踪 （ ...

[Table_StockNameRptType] 恒立液压（601100） 公司点评 业绩稳健发展，线性驱动项目未来可期 | [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） | | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-05-05 | | 570 收盘价（元） | 74.42 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 99.47/41.55 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1340.82 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1340.82 | | 流通股比例（%） | 100% | | 总市值（亿元） | 997.84 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 997.84 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 恒立液压 沪深300 ⚫ 国际化初显成效，线性驱动项目加速发展 [Table_Summary] ⚫ 公司发布 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报 2024 年公司实现营业收入 93.90 亿元（+4.51%）；归属于上市公司股东的 净利润 25.0 ...

[Table_StockNameRptType] 恒立液压（601100） 公司点评 业绩稳健发展，线性驱动项目未来可期 | [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） | | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-05-05 | | 570 收盘价（元） | 74.42 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 99.47/41.55 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1340.82 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1340.82 | | 流通股比例（%） | 100% | | 总市值（亿元） | 997.84 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 997.84 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 恒立液压 沪深300 [分析师：张帆 Table_Author] 执业证书号：S0010522070003 邮箱：zhangfan@hazq.com ⚫ 投资建议 我们看好公司长期发展，根据 2024 年年报情况，修改之前盈利预测为： 2025-202 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 6-month outlook maintained [6][17]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 9.39 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.51%, and a record high in revenue [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 2.51 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year, driven by market share gains in hydraulic pump and valve products, as well as growth in non-engineering machinery products and overseas market expansion [1][2]. - The company is advancing its electrification strategy and has commenced mass production of linear actuators, which is expected to become a new growth driver [3]. - The company is actively expanding its international and diversified operations, with overseas revenue growing by 7.61% year-on-year in 2024 [4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 42.83%, an increase of 0.93 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 26.76%, a decrease of 1.11 percentage points [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.42 billion yuan, up 2.56% year-on-year, and a net profit of 618 million yuan, reflecting a 2.61% increase [2]. - The company forecasts net profits of 2.77 billion yuan, 3.31 billion yuan, and 3.90 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 36, 30, and 26 [4][5]. Product Performance - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows hydraulic cylinders at 4.76 billion yuan, hydraulic pumps and valves at 3.58 billion yuan, hydraulic systems at 296 million yuan, and parts and castings at 684 million yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 1.44%, 9.63%, 1.64%, and 1.76% [2].

2025 年 5 月 1 日 公司研究 挖机相关业务有望受益于国内工程机械行业景气度复苏 2024 年公司挖掘机泵阀产品份额实现持续提升。挖掘机市场在经历初始的 下滑后，逐渐恢复增长，特别是国内市场显示出较强的增长动力，而出口市场也 在年末实现正增长，国内工程机械市场周期拐点确立。随着未来国内工程机械行 业景气度持续复苏，公司作为工程机械零部件龙头企业有望深度受益。 "多元化"布局持续推进，非挖业务持续突破 公司持续推进"多元化"布局。在非工程机械领域，公司还开发了基于音圈 电机的工业比例伺服阀，以 4ms 行业最快响应速度。同时，公司还开展了风电 轴承测试、汽车行业 CDC 阀测试、斗轮挖掘机液压系统、布缆机、石油行业、 液压机械臂、船用风帆液压系统等项目的研发，高效推进下游领域的多元化进程。 线性驱动器项目开始量产，有望打造公司新增长极 业绩稳步增长，线性驱动器项目有望打造新增长极 ——恒立液压（601100.SH）2024 年报、2025 年一季报点评 要点 业绩稳步增长，25Q1 扣非归母净利润大幅增长 恒立液压 2024 年实现营业收入 93.9 亿元，同比增长 4.5%；归母净利润 25.1 亿元 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月30日 公 司 简 评 [Table_invest] 买入（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 [相关研究 Table_Report] 《恒立液压（601100）：业绩稳步增 长，"国际化、多元化、电动化"持续 催 化 — — 公 司 简 评 报 告 》 2024.10.30 《恒立液压（601100）："国际化、多 元化、电动化"经营战略稳步推进— —公司简评报告》 2024.08.27 《恒立液压（601100）：线性驱动器 和海外项目稳步推进，下游承压难阻 公司成长 — — 公 司 简 评 报 告 》 2024.04.23 [恒立液压（ Table_NewTitle] 601100）：营收创历史新高， 线性驱动项目进入批产阶段 ——公司简评报告 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 联系人 商俭 shangjian@longone.com.cn | [数据日期 Table_cominfo] | 2025/04/29 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 73.71 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected net profits of 2.8 billion, 3.2 billion, and 4.0 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE valuations of 35, 30, and 25 times [4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 9.39 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.51%, with a net profit of 2.51 billion RMB, up 0.40% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue was 2.42 billion RMB, reflecting a 2.5% increase year-on-year, while net profit was 618 million RMB, up 2.66% year-on-year [2]. - The recovery in the excavator market, along with the expansion into non-excavator markets, has driven stable revenue growth. The domestic engineering machinery industry showed signs of recovery in 2024, with excavator sales increasing by 3.13% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company has seen a significant increase in market share for hydraulic pump and valve products, and its diversification strategy is yielding results, with non-engineering machinery products continuing to grow. International sales also increased by 7.61% year-on-year [2]. - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 42.83%, up 1 percentage point year-on-year, attributed to cost reduction and product mix optimization. The net margin was approximately 26.76%, down 1.1 percentage points due to increased sales and management expenses [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 9.39 billion RMB and a net profit of 2.51 billion RMB, with Q4 2024 revenue at 2.45 billion RMB and net profit at 717 million RMB [2]. - For Q1 2025, revenue was 2.42 billion RMB and net profit was 618 million RMB, with a significant increase in non-recurring net profit [2]. Operational Analysis - The excavator market is recovering, with a total of 201,100 excavators sold in 2024, marking an end to three consecutive years of decline. Domestic sales reached 100,500 units, up 11.7% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s revenue growth is supported by increased market share in hydraulic components and successful international market expansion [2][3]. Profitability - The gross margin for 2024 was 42.83%, while the net margin was approximately 26.76%. In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 39.4% and the net margin was 25.55% [2]. - The company’s profitability is stable, with a notable increase in non-recurring profit growth compared to apparent profit growth [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected net profits of 2.8 billion, 3.2 billion, and 4.0 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE valuations of 35, 30, and 25 times [4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 9.39 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.51%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.51 billion RMB, up 0.40% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue was 2.42 billion RMB, reflecting a 2.5% increase year-on-year, while net profit was 618 million RMB, up 2.66% year-on-year [2]. - The recovery in the excavator market, along with the expansion into non-excavator markets, has driven stable revenue growth. The domestic engineering machinery industry showed signs of recovery in 2024, with excavator sales increasing by 3.13% year-on-year. The company's revenue growth was supported by increased market share in hydraulic pump and valve products, diversification into non-engineering machinery products, and successful international market expansion [2][3]. - The company's overall profitability remains stable, with a gross margin of 42.83% in 2024, up 1 percentage point year-on-year, while the net margin was approximately 26.76%, down 1.1 percentage points due to increased sales and management expenses [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 9.39 billion RMB, a 4.51% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.51 billion RMB, a 0.40% increase year-on-year. Q4 2024 revenue was 2.45 billion RMB, with a net profit of 717 million RMB [2]. - For Q1 2025, revenue was 2.42 billion RMB, a 2.5% year-on-year increase, and net profit was 618 million RMB, a 2.66% increase year-on-year [2]. Operational Analysis - The excavator market's recovery and the expansion into non-excavator markets have jointly driven stable revenue growth. In 2024, the company saw a historical high in revenue, attributed to increased market share in hydraulic pump and valve products, ongoing diversification, and successful international market expansion [2][3]. - The revenue breakdown for 2024 included hydraulic cylinders (4.76 billion RMB), hydraulic pumps and valves (3.58 billion RMB), motors (296 million RMB), hydraulic systems (684 million RMB), and parts and castings (1.68 billion RMB), with respective year-on-year growth rates of +1.44%, +9.63%, +1.64%, +1.76% [2]. Profitability - The gross margin for 2024 was 42.83%, an increase of 1 percentage point year-on-year, while the net margin was approximately 26.76%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points due to increased sales and management expenses [2]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 39.4%, a decrease of 0.69 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 25.55%, remaining stable year-on-year [2].