汽车行业 2026 年度投资策略 20251230 摘要 2026 年乘用车市场内需受政策透支和购置税退坡影响，预计上牌量同 比下降 2.5%，但新能源汽车渗透率提升将部分抵消这一影响。出口方 面，受益于国内主机厂海外布局和新能源汽车性价比优势，预计出口增 速保持 15%以上。 重卡市场受益于以旧换新政策，但国四车型消化后，政策刺激减弱，预 计 2026 年销量为 106 万辆。客车市场受高基数影响增速放缓，预计明 年增速约为 5%，主要依赖海外新能源客车渗透率提升。 摩托车出口维持高景气度，预计明年出口增速约为 15%，国内市场大排 量摩托车渗透率提升，总体行业增速约为 7%。隆鑫、春风等国内品牌 在海外渠道布局进入收获期。 汽车板块投资机会在于拓展海外市场、国产替代和 AI 赋能。海外市场潜 力巨大，自主品牌新能源汽车出海空间广阔，预计 2026 年新能源乘用 车出口接近 240 万辆，同比增长翻倍。 中国汽车零部件在海外市场具有巨大成长空间，预计有两倍以上增长。 欧洲市场对新能源汽车的需求加速，为中国零部件出海提供机遇，中国 汽零企业已积累先发优势。 Q&A 2026 年汽车板块的投资策略是什么？ 20 ...

如何看 L3 自动驾驶及 Robotaxi 投资机会？20251222 摘要 L3 级别自动驾驶与现有技术相比有哪些特点？ 特斯拉近期进行了无人状态下的 Robotaxi 测试，这标志着其技术评估已达到 相对成熟阶段。作为一家拥有 200 万辆存量车辆的大型车企，其数据收集、闭 环及泛化迭代能力非常强，因此这一进展可能预示着特斯拉距离充分商业化又 近了一步。同时，CyberCab 是特斯拉专门为 Robotaxi 设计的一款硬件车型， L3 级别对应的是有条件自动驾驶或半自动驾驶，其定义是在符合标准的道路和 车型上开启自动驾驶模式。在这种模式下，如果发生问题，由车辆负责处理并 报警。如果报警后若干秒内（通常为 8 秒）未接管，则由驾驶员负责。因此， L3 是人机共驾的重要阶段，为未来向 L4 甚至 L5 过渡做准备。 从消费角度看， L3 更适合 C 端用户，因为很多驾驶员在高速公路上行驶时路况稳定且单一，而 交通参与者较少，这种情况下使用 L3 具有实际意义。而 Robotaxi 则更多瞄准 L4，因为其经济意义之一是减少司机费用。总体而言，本次发放的两张长安和 北汽的牌照，不仅标志着国家对这些企业研发投入 ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is expected to benefit from the acceleration of automotive intelligence and the development of the robotics industry, with the auto parts sector outperforming the vehicle manufacturing sector in 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - From January 1 to December 12, 2025, the CITIC passenger car index decreased by 0.40%, while the CITIC auto parts index increased by 34.76%, indicating a significant outperformance of the auto parts sector compared to the vehicle manufacturing sector [1]. - The vehicle manufacturing sector has shown weakening performance due to intensified price wars and fierce market competition, while the auto parts sector has benefited from opportunities arising from the rapid development of AI and related industries [1]. Group 2: Revenue and Profitability - The passenger car sector experienced revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by the "old-for-new" policy, but faced a decline in short-term profitability due to increased competition [1]. - The auto parts sector, on the other hand, has seen continuous performance improvement driven by economies of scale and demand from emerging industries [1]. Group 3: 2026 Outlook - The automotive market in 2026 is expected to see a decline in policies such as the "old-for-new" program, which may affect car purchase demand, while the export of new energy vehicles is projected to grow rapidly, showcasing strong competitiveness in China's new energy vehicle industry [2]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to rise, with intelligent and high-end features becoming new growth drivers [2]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - The intelligentization of chassis systems is a key area of focus to ensure the reliability of high-level autonomous driving, with domestic companies actively promoting the implementation of intelligent technologies in suspension, steering, and braking systems [3][4]. - The development of intelligent suspension systems is advancing, with active suspension becoming a necessary choice for intelligent driving vehicles, and domestic parts manufacturers are becoming major players in this field [3]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The automotive market in 2026 will be influenced by various factors, with the rise in new energy vehicle penetration, exports, and intelligent high-end features expected to be structural highlights [4]. - Companies that continue to focus on automotive intelligence and are positioned to benefit from the mass application of intelligent driving technologies, particularly those involved in active suspension and line control systems, are recommended for investment [5].

Investment Summary - The automotive industry is benefiting from the acceleration of smart technology and the development of the robotics industry, with the parts sector outperforming the vehicle sector. From January 1 to December 12, 2025, the CITIC passenger car index fell by 0.40%, while the CITIC automotive parts index rose by 34.76%, indicating a significant difference in performance between the two sectors [4][18][25]. Group 1: 2025 Market Performance and Earnings Review - The automotive parts sector achieved a revenue of 7,541.60 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.75%, and a net profit of 460.10 billion yuan, up 19.60% year-on-year [49]. - The passenger vehicle sector's revenue reached 15,203.16 billion yuan, growing by 8.68% year-on-year, while the net profit decreased by 15.72% to 391.90 billion yuan [31][49]. - The performance of passenger vehicle companies varied, with most showing revenue growth, but some, like BYD and Great Wall Motors, experienced profit declines [39][42]. Group 2: Outlook for 2026 - The automotive market in 2026 is expected to see a decline in policies, while exports and new energy vehicles (NEVs) will continue to rise. The "old-for-new" policy is anticipated to drive high growth in vehicle sales in 2025, but its absence in 2026 may lead to a demand shortfall [5][62][66]. - The penetration rate of NEVs is expected to continue increasing, with smart and high-end vehicles becoming new growth drivers. By 2025, the penetration rate of NEVs reached 46.7% [72][73]. - The L3 commercial application is expected to reach a critical point in 2026, with smart chassis technology anticipated to be applied in large quantities [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy focuses on the smart automotive sector, particularly as the industry transitions from L2 to L3 autonomous driving. Companies that continue to invest in this area are expected to benefit significantly [6][8]. - Recommended companies in the vehicle sector include SAIC Motor, Jianghuai Automobile, and Chery Automobile, which are positioned to leverage advancements in smart driving technology [6][8]. - In the parts sector, companies like Baolong Technology and Top Group are highlighted for their potential to benefit from the implementation of line control steering and braking systems, which are set to enter mass application in 2026 [8][49].

Investment Rating - The report rates the automotive parts industry as "Positive" (First Time) [1] Core Viewpoints - The loosening of regulations is expected to accelerate the mass production of electronic mechanical brakes (EMB) and steer-by-wire (SBW), leading to a significant market expansion [3] - The domestic market for line-controlled chassis is projected to exceed 100 billion by 2030, driven by advancements in high-level autonomous driving [3][30] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-quality Tier 1 suppliers and upstream components such as motors and lead screws [4][9] Summary by Relevant Sections Line-Controlled Chassis - The pursuit of human-machine decoupling in line-controlled chassis is fundamental for achieving L3/L4 autonomous driving [9] - The market for line-controlled braking systems is expected to reach 50 billion by 2030, with EMB projected at 16.4 billion [3][30] - The line-controlled steering market is anticipated to reach 50 billion by 2030, with SBW projected at 21.5 billion [3][30] Regulatory Developments - Regulations allowing EMB to be implemented in vehicles will officially take effect on January 1, 2026 [3][26] - New policies regarding SBW are expected to be catalyzed within the year, although specific certification details remain unclear [3][26] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the penetration rate of line-controlled chassis is expected to rise from 5% in 2025 to 30% by 2030 [31] - The overall market for intelligent chassis in China is projected to exceed 100 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37% from 2025 to 2030 [30][29] Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests focusing on leading Tier 1 suppliers with comprehensive platform capabilities, such as NEXTEER, ZF, and others [4][9]

Group 1: Core Business Areas - The company focuses on three core business segments: chassis, intelligent cockpit and driving, and thermal management [2] Group 2: Market Strategy - The company aims to optimize customer revenue structure, balancing traditional and new customers, while expanding overseas through local factories and partnerships with OEMs [2] - Plans for North America and Europe are in place to achieve global market synergy [2] Group 3: Cost Control Strategies - The company employs a "low-cost strategy" with six systems: agile R&D, efficient investment, quality procurement, lean operations, excellent marketing, and scientific human resources to stabilize profits against price declines [3] Group 4: EPS Product Line Progress - The EPS product line is primarily C-EPS, with DP-EPS gradually increasing; major clients include Hongqi and Chery [3] - Research and development are ongoing for steer-by-wire and brake-by-wire systems, while rear-wheel steering has been developed for certain Hongqi models targeting high-end vehicles [3]

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive industry is transitioning from "quantity leadership" to "quality breakthroughs," with chassis technology becoming a key battleground for competition [1][3] - The future of Chinese electric vehicle chassis will focus on four main directions: high adaptability, high safety, high controllability, and high comfort [1][6] Industry Overview - China has been the world's largest automotive producer and seller for 15 consecutive years, but it still lags behind foreign giants in profitability and technological value [3] - In 2024, Toyota's net profit is projected to be three times that of the combined profits of China's seven most profitable car companies, highlighting the challenges faced by the Chinese automotive industry [3] Technological Challenges - Core components of traditional vehicles, particularly engines, transmissions, and chassis systems, have long been dominated by international giants like Bosch and ZF, creating high technical barriers [3][4] - The traditional chassis design is incompatible with the structure and control logic of electric vehicles, necessitating a complete redesign and integration [4] Technological Innovations - "Drive-by-wire" technology is emerging as a core focus for chassis evolution, enhancing vehicle response speed and control precision while providing reliable execution for intelligent driving systems [4][5] - The chassis accounts for over 70% of the total vehicle cost, making it a critical factor for product competitiveness and profit margins [4] Domestic Progress - Chinese companies have made significant advancements in niche areas such as intelligent suspension and steer-by-wire systems, with companies like Baolong Technology and Konghui Technology gaining market share [5] - NIO's ET9 has become the first mass-produced vehicle in China to feature a steer-by-wire system, indicating China's capability in high-end chassis technology [5] Future Outlook - The electronic mechanical brake (EMB) system is expected to achieve mass production by 2026, presenting an opportunity for China to potentially lead in this area [6] - The Chinese government has prioritized "new chassis architecture" as a key technology, promoting domestic innovation in chassis technology [6] - The future development of Chinese electric vehicle chassis will aim for a new architecture characterized by flexibility, sensitivity, stability, and adaptability, with a goal to transition from a "quantity powerhouse" to a "technology powerhouse" in the automotive sector [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company is currently not involved in robotics-related business but is actively advancing research on ball screws and brushless motors, which are used in its products like electronic control brakes (EMB) [2] Group 1: Company Development - The company has received inquiries regarding the research progress of ball screws and brushless motors [2] - The company is focusing on the development of its existing products that utilize ball screws and brushless motors [2] - Future plans regarding the robotics sector will be disclosed in accordance with regulatory requirements if they arise [2]

Group 1 - Bertel's response on November 11 indicates that Li Auto is an important client for the company [2] - The company supplies various products, including basic braking and electronic braking systems, to Li Auto [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][21]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 20.93 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.0% to 1.97 billion yuan [1][8]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 7.99 billion yuan, up 12.1% year-on-year and 11.5% quarter-on-quarter, but the net profit fell by 13.7% year-on-year to 670 million yuan [1][8]. - The company is expected to see a rebound in performance in Q4 and next year, driven by increasing sales from key clients and growth in various business segments such as thermal management and automotive electronics [2][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company’s gross margin was 18.6%, down 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to changes in product structure and narrowing scale effects [2][12]. - The company’s R&D expenses increased due to ongoing investments in new products related to robotics and automotive electronics [2][12]. Business Outlook - The company is entering the liquid cooling market, having secured initial orders worth 1.5 billion yuan, leveraging its thermal management capabilities [2][20]. - The company is deepening collaborations with major automotive clients, which is expected to provide stable growth momentum [3][21]. Profit Forecast - The net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 3.17 billion, 3.67 billion, and 4.65 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.82, 2.11, and 2.67 yuan [3][21].