证券研究报告 | 2025年10月29日 安井食品（603345.SH） 优于大市 拥抱商超定制成效初显，加码冷冻烘焙赛道 安井食品 2025 年前三季度实现营业总收入 113.71 亿元，同比增长 2.66%； 实现归母净利润 9.49 亿元，同比减少 9.35%；实现扣非归母净利润 8.67 亿 元，同比减少 13.36%。2025 年第三季度实现营业总收入 37.66 亿元，同比 增长 6.61%；实现归母净利润 2.73 亿元，同比增长 11.80%；实现扣非归母 净利润 2.64 亿元，同比增长 15.27%。 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 食品饮料·食品加工 | | | 021-60875135 zhangxiangwei@guosen.com.cn wangxinyu8@guosen.com.cn S0980523090001 拥抱商超定制成效初显，新零售、特通实现高增。分渠道看，2025 年第三季 度经销商/商超/特通/新零售及电商渠道收入同比-0.6%/+28%/+68%/+38%。 公司拥抱商超定制化战略推进顺利，在沃尔玛等渠道定制产品进展顺利；特 通渠道受益于直营餐饮、茶饮等新增客户增量 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Anjilin Food (603345.SH) [1] Core Views - The company's earnings are steadily recovering, with strong resilience in its fresh-lock packaging segment [1] - The report highlights that the company has shown better performance than the industry despite demand pressure, aided by successful product and channel integration through acquisitions [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, total revenue reached 11.371 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 949 million yuan, a decrease of 9% [4] - In Q3 2025, total revenue was 3.766 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 12% to 273 million yuan [4] Profitability - Q3 2025 gross margin improved by 0.1 percentage points to 19.99%, with a slowdown in the cost increase of raw materials like crayfish and fish paste [5] - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 increased by 0.3 percentage points to 7.31%, indicating a recovery in profitability [5] Product Segments - Revenue from frozen prepared foods in Q3 2025 was 1.906 billion yuan, up 6%, with strong performance in high-end brand image and product categories [6] - The baking segment generated 32 million yuan in revenue, with a focus on developing this as a third growth curve for the company [6] Distribution Channels - Revenue from distribution channels in Q3 2025 was 2.960 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1%, while direct sales channels saw a significant increase of 68% [7] - The company is focusing on customized products for large supermarkets, which has led to a 28% increase in revenue from supermarket channels [7][8] Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to 4.34, 4.77, and 5.29 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16, 15, and 13 times [9]

Core Viewpoint - Anjiu Food's performance in the first half of 2025 shows a slight revenue increase but a significant decline in profit, prompting strategic shifts to enhance growth and address market challenges [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 7.604 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 676 million yuan, down 15.79% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 603 million yuan, a decline of 21.85% year-on-year [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is transitioning from "channel-driven growth" to "new product-driven growth" to counteract profit declines [1]. - New product launches include: - Fresh fish balls and a vacuum-packed product series in the hot pot ingredient sector [1]. - "Meat More" sausages with higher meat content in the sausage category [1]. - A new product matrix called "Six Little Dragons" in the rice and noodle products segment, featuring various specialty items [1]. Industry Context - The recent "Xibei incident" has sparked discussions about the transparency of pre-prepared food quality and consumer rights within the industry [1]. - The company emphasizes the importance of consumer rights and the need for higher industry standards, which may raise entry barriers and enhance the role of larger enterprises [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the pressure on profitability was concentrated in Q2, and there is a focus on increasing product channels during the peak season [7] - The company achieved a revenue of 76.04 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.76 billion yuan, down 15.8% year-on-year [7] - The report notes that the company is experiencing a decline in gross margin due to rising raw material costs and increased promotional activities, with a Q2 gross margin of 18.0%, down 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [7] - New product launches and channel expansions are expected to drive revenue growth in the second half of the year, particularly with the introduction of higher-margin products [7] - The report has adjusted the profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 14.3 billion yuan, 16.2 billion yuan, and 19.1 billion yuan respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 18, 16, and 13 times [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 14,045 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.29% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 1,478 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.24% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is forecasted to be 4.43 yuan per share [1] - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 17,375 million yuan in 2024, with a projected increase to 21,551 million yuan by 2027 [8] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 70% for the mid-year distribution [7]