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新华财经上海4月30日电 （葛佳明）当地时间5月1日（周四）美股盘后，苹果即将发布2025年第一季度（2025财年第二财季）财报，投资者将关注苹果当季 的营收状况，包括iPhone等硬件收入及软件服务收入等业务的增速。除财报数据外，在贸易政策不确定性攀升的背景下，苹果对于后续营收和利润前景的展 望也将成为焦点。 受贸易政策影响，年初至今，苹果股价下跌约16%，跑输标普500指数（同期下跌6%），市盈率为33倍。在追踪苹果股票的36位分析师中，24位给予"买 入"评级，10位给予"持有"评级，2位给予"卖出"评级，平均目标股价为234美元，相较于当前210美元的价格，预计未来12个月还有约11%的上行空间。 苹果手机业务营收能否发力 数据统计显示，分析师预期苹果2025年第一季度预计实现营收940.60亿美元，同比增加3.64%；预期每股收益1.606美元，同比增加4.99%。 苹果硬件业务占公司总营收的比重约80%，其中iPhone则为最主要的营收来源。高盛在研报中表示，iPhone预计在第一季度实现营收约478亿美元，同比增长 4%，略高于华尔街平均预期的456亿美元。 4月15日，市场调研机构IDC发布的 ...

作者：程华 中国人民大学数字经济研究中心 在2010年代早期，中国民众的银行卡持有率已经很高，但商家POS的布设范围有限。像全世界一样，银行卡支付只能 用于大额场景和商业相对发达的区域，而在小额高频的日常消费场景以及边远农村，收款端无法布设POS。因此当 时，线下支付市场的最大痛点是现金支付使用率过高。 在这样的背景下，条码支付门槛低、商家几乎可无成本接入的优势便为解决这一痛点提供了完美的解决方案。从条码 支付当时的普及线路也可以明显看到"农村包围城市"的特点。 早期的条码支付基本出现在不能刷卡的场景，如菜市 场、街边小店，商家贴一张二维码就可收款。等第三方支付机构凭借强大的营销推广能力，完成了对消费者的习惯教 育和心智转换，形成对条码支付的依赖后，原先接受银行卡支付的商家也就只能顺应潮流，改造POS机具、接受条码 支付了。 近日，支付宝"碰一下"用户数破亿的消息，在移动支付市场上引起了不小的波澜。 经过近二十年的探索，全球的移动支付呈现出两条成熟的技术路线：NFC支付和条码支付。NFC支付在商业上成功的 鼻祖是苹果支付，条码支付的先驱则是中国的支付宝，微信支付加入后，这种支付方式迅速在中国普及，并且逐渐复 ...

Core Insights - The European Union is seeking to reduce its reliance on American payment systems like Visa, Mastercard, and PayPal due to geopolitical tensions and trade wars [1][2] Group 1: Market Dependence - The European Central Bank (ECB) warns that the dominance of American payment providers poses risks to Europe, with over 60% of card payments in the Eurozone processed through Visa and Mastercard [2] - Thirteen EU member states rely almost entirely on Visa and Mastercard for card payments, highlighting the vulnerability of the European payment system to external shocks [2] - Even in countries like Germany, where local systems like Girocard exist, the influence of American companies remains significant, as services like PayPal and Apple Pay still depend on Visa and Mastercard [2] Group 2: Initiatives for Independence - In response to the risks posed by American payment providers, the ECB is working on developing a digital euro, although it may take several years to implement [3] - The European Payment Initiative aims to create a new payment system called "Wero," which is expected to facilitate user-to-user payments and online transactions, with a potential launch in late 2025 [3] - Partnerships have been established with banks in Germany, Belgium, France, and the Netherlands to support the development of "Wero," and EU regulations may require merchants to offer at least one European payment option [3] Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - The main challenge lies in creating a competitive payment system that consumers are willing to adopt, as previous attempts like Giropay have failed [4] - Retailers are increasingly dissatisfied with the high fees charged by Visa and Mastercard, which may create an opportunity for a more cost-effective alternative payment system [4] - If the financial industry can develop a cheaper and lower-cost system, it could significantly disrupt the current market dynamics dominated by American providers [4]