Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market, particularly the high-end segment represented by Moutai, is experiencing a significant boost during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday season, indicating a shift towards rational consumption patterns [1][2][4] - Moutai's performance is characterized by stable pricing and strong sales momentum, with the price of its flagship product, Flying Moutai, remaining between 1900 to 2100 RMB per bottle, reflecting healthy inventory levels and robust demand [1][2] - The company has successfully diversified its product offerings beyond Flying Moutai, launching several new products that cater to various consumer needs, thereby capturing additional market demand [2][4] Market Performance - Sales of Moutai have shown a remarkable increase, with terminal sales volume doubling month-on-month and growing over 20% year-on-year since September [1] - The demand for Moutai is driven by gifting and social gatherings, with consumers showing a preference for immediate consumption rather than speculative buying [2][4] - The company's strategic market research and initiatives have transformed market challenges into opportunities, reinforcing its position in the high-end liquor market [4] Consumer Behavior - The shift in consumer behavior reflects a move from speculative purchasing to immediate consumption, with customers now more willing to buy Moutai for personal use rather than as an investment [2][4] - New consumer segments, particularly urban professionals from industries such as finance and technology, are increasingly attracted to Moutai's products, aligning with the brand's strategy of selling a lifestyle rather than just liquor [4]

Group 1 - The wholesale reference price for 2025 Feitian Moutai (53 degrees/500ml) has dropped to 1770 RMB per bottle, marking a new low since its launch, down 20.27% from the initial price of 2220 RMB per bottle [1] - The price for a case of Feitian Moutai remains stable at 1790 RMB per bottle, also a new low, down over 20% from the original price of 2255 RMB per bottle [1] - The price of Feitian Moutai has reached as low as 1700 RMB, with some stores on Pinduoduo selling it at 3400 RMB for two bottles, equivalent to 1700 RMB per bottle [1] Group 2 - The white liquor industry is preparing for the peak season ahead of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, despite the third quarter typically being a slow consumption period [1] - Moutai has launched several new products this quarter, including a limited edition commemorative liquor for the 70th anniversary of the five-star trademark, priced at 7000 RMB, with a current wholesale price stabilizing at 10,000 RMB [1] - Moutai's cultural and creative products continue to expand, with the "Huang Xiaoxi Dinner" series selling out quickly after its launch [1] Group 3 - The ultra-high-end products above Feitian are also being iterated, with the announcement of upgraded packaging and new anti-counterfeiting measures for Guizhou Moutai (premium) at the Guizhou Wine Expo [2] - The recent launch of Moutai 1935 exclusive version has introduced a new channel model [3] Group 4 - The core product supporting Moutai's performance remains the Moutai liquor, with the kilogram Moutai emerging as a new core product, currently priced above 3300 RMB in wholesale [4]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid introduction of new products by liquor companies is a proactive strategy to combat shrinking consumption and intense competition in the existing market [1][10]. Group 1: Product Launches by Guizhou Moutai - Guizhou Moutai has launched over 10 new products in the past two months, marking an unprecedented frequency in the industry [2][4]. - Notable product launches include the Taiyuan Red health wine on August 4, a limited edition commemorative wine on August 8, and the Moutai 1935 premium version on August 25 [4]. - The company has also introduced a series of cultural products and new packaging formats, indicating a strong push for innovation [4][10]. Group 2: Other Brands Following Suit - Other liquor brands have also begun to introduce new products, albeit in smaller quantities, reflecting a rare trend of concentrated innovation across the industry [5][10]. - Brands like Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu have launched new products, including a craft beer and upgraded versions of existing offerings [7][10]. - The trend includes a focus on low-alcohol products and light bottle designs, catering to younger consumers and the mass market [11]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Strategies - The recent surge in product launches is a response to significant market pressures, including regulatory changes and declining consumer interest [10][11]. - Companies are adopting strategies to stimulate consumer demand through product innovation and enhanced online sales channels [10][11]. - The emphasis on light bottle products and low-alcohol options indicates a shift towards appealing to younger demographics and expanding market reach [11].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai has reached a new low, with significant declines observed in both wholesale and retail prices, indicating a challenging market environment for the brand [1][3][6]. Price Trends - As of September 14, 2023, the wholesale reference price for 25-year Moutai (53 degrees/500ml) in loose bottles is reported at 1770 RMB, down 10 RMB from the previous day, marking a new low since its launch [1]. - The original box price for the same product remains at 1790 RMB, also a new low, reflecting a decline of over 20% from its initial price of 2255 RMB [1]. - The kilogram Moutai (53 degrees/1L) is priced at 3300 RMB, down 18.92% from its launch price of 3700 RMB earlier this year [3]. Market Dynamics - Despite the general trend of declining prices, the white liquor industry is preparing for the peak consumption season around the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, with Moutai launching several new products to stimulate demand [8]. - Moutai has been actively engaging with over 200 distributors across various regions, indicating a strategic effort to strengthen market presence [8]. - Limited edition products, such as the 70th Anniversary Commemorative Moutai, have been well-received, with a stable wholesale price around 10,000 RMB, reflecting strong demand in the collectible and gifting markets [8]. Product Development - Moutai is expanding its product line with creative cultural products, which have seen rapid sales, indicating a successful diversification strategy [8]. - The company is also iterating on its high-end products, with recent upgrades announced for premium offerings, including new packaging and anti-counterfeiting measures [8]. - The kilogram Moutai is emerging as a new core product, with increasing inquiries and purchases noted in the market [9].

Core Insights - The wholesale price of 25-year Flying Moutai has reached a new low of 1770 RMB per bottle, down 20.27% from its initial price of 2220 RMB when the platform launched [1] - The original box price for 25-year Flying Moutai remains at 1790 RMB, also a new low, down over 20% from its launch price of 2255 RMB [1] - The kilogram Moutai has also hit a new low of 3300 RMB, down 18.92% from its price of 3700 RMB at the beginning of the year [1] Pricing Trends - The price of 25-year Flying Moutai (53 degrees/500ml) has decreased to 1770 RMB for loose bottles and remained stable at 1790 RMB for original boxes [2] - The kilogram Moutai (53 degrees/1L) has seen a slight decrease to 3300 RMB [2] - The price of 25-year Flying Moutai has been observed as low as 1700 RMB on platforms like Pinduoduo, indicating a competitive pricing environment [6] Market Dynamics - The white liquor industry is preparing for the peak season ahead of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, with Moutai Group conducting market research among over 200 distributors [6] - Moutai has launched several new products this quarter, enhancing its market appeal and addressing new consumer demands [6] - Limited edition products, such as the 70th Anniversary Commemorative Moutai, are targeting the collectible and gifting market, with a stable wholesale price around 10,000 RMB [6] Product Development - Moutai is iterating on its high-end products, with upgrades announced for its premium offerings and new anti-counterfeiting measures [7] - The kilogram Moutai is emerging as a new core product alongside traditional offerings like Flying Moutai and Zodiac Moutai [7] - Increased inquiries and purchases for Flying Moutai have been noted in local channels, indicating a potential uptick in demand [8]

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai reported a revenue of 91.094 billion yuan and a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.16% and 8.89% respectively, despite a slowdown in profit growth [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan, marking a 9.16% increase year-on-year [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 45.403 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.89% year-on-year growth [2]. - The company has a three-year dividend plan, committing to distribute no less than 75% of the annual net profit as cash dividends from 2024 to 2026 [3]. Dividend Policy - For 2024, the proposed cash dividend is 276.24 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 34.671 billion yuan, with an expected cumulative dividend of approximately 64.7 billion yuan for the year, resulting in a dividend rate of 75% and a dividend yield of about 3.33% [3]. - The company is considering maintaining its dividend policy and has already implemented a buyback of 6 billion yuan this year [4]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing market strategies and maintaining channel resilience amid industry adjustments and changing consumer trends [2]. - There has been a noted improvement in terminal sales as of late August, with significant growth compared to June and July, indicating a potential positive market trend [5]. Product Development - Guizhou Moutai has launched several new products this year, including limited editions and creative cultural products, which have been well-received in the market [5]. - The company is committed to enhancing brand building and consumer group cultivation, particularly in series wines and overseas markets [5]. Sales and Marketing - The sales expense ratio remains around 3%, the lowest in the industry, indicating effective cost management despite absolute increases in sales expenses [6]. - The company is adapting its marketing strategies and expanding consumption scenarios to meet the rational consumption trends in the market [6].

Core Insights - The white liquor industry is entering a peak season as the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival approach, with Moutai signaling a positive market recovery [1] - Moutai's management has conducted extensive market research, indicating a significant increase in terminal sales since late August, suggesting a favorable market trend [1][2] - Despite a generally sluggish consumption atmosphere in the white liquor sector this year, Moutai has successfully launched new products and adapted its strategies to meet diverse consumer demands [2][3] Market Trends - Moutai's management has emphasized the importance of continuous market research to inform operational decisions, with multiple surveys conducted across various provinces and channels [2] - The third quarter, typically a slow season for white liquor consumption, has seen Moutai introduce several new products that cater to niche markets, such as collectible and gift items [2] - The price of Moutai's core products, including the 1000ml Moutai, has recently increased, reflecting a growing demand in the market [3] Product Strategy - Moutai is diversifying its product offerings, including limited edition and cultural products, to enhance consumer engagement and drive sales [2][3] - The company has adopted a multi-channel strategy, ensuring that different products are marketed through appropriate channels based on consumer response and market demand [5] - Moutai's core products remain the main revenue drivers, with a focus on understanding and adapting to changing consumer preferences and behaviors [3][4] Channel Strategy - The concept of "collaboration" has become central to Moutai's channel development strategy, aiming to enhance efficiency and create a complementary channel ecosystem [5] - Moutai has established a "4+6" channel layout system to optimize the functionality of various sales channels [5] - The management has reiterated the importance of maintaining strategic focus to navigate market fluctuations and ensure sustained growth [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the food and beverage industry [2][34]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector saw a 2.13% increase last week, with notable gains in the snack (+10.20%), dairy (+2.67%), and liquor (+2.14%) sub-sectors. The report highlights that the release of performance pressures in the liquor sector and stable growth in leading companies in snacks, dairy, and condiments are key factors for the positive outlook [6][34]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the liquor sector, particularly in the context of recent policy impacts, suggesting that valuation recovery may precede fundamental improvements. It recommends focusing on specific companies within the liquor sector that are expected to rebound [34]. - The snack sector is identified as having strong growth potential driven by new retail formats and product categories, with significant revenue increases reported by leading companies [35]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage index increased by 2.13%, ranking seventh among major sectors. The snack sector led with a 10.20% increase, followed by dairy and liquor [16][34]. Liquor Sector Analysis - In the first half of 2025, only a few liquor companies, including Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, reported positive revenue and net profit growth. The report notes that the liquor demand has been under pressure since the second quarter due to policy changes, but expectations for recovery are building [6][34]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like Shede Liquor, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai for their potential in valuation recovery [34]. Snack Sector Analysis - The snack sector is highlighted for its growth potential, with companies like Youyou Foods and Wancheng Group reporting substantial revenue increases of 45.59% and 109.33%, respectively. The report suggests that new consumer trends favoring health and self-satisfaction will drive further growth in this sector [35][30]. Key Company Performance - Kweichow Moutai reported a stock price of 1,480.00 yuan with an expected EPS growth from 68.64 yuan in 2024 to 74.38 yuan in 2025 [36]. - Wuliangye's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 527.71 billion yuan, showing a 4.19% year-on-year increase [32]. - Hai Tian Wei Ye achieved a revenue of 152.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.59% increase, with a net profit growth of 13.35% [29].

Core Insights - The overall performance of the liquor industry has declined in the first half of the year, with over two-thirds of listed liquor companies experiencing a year-on-year decrease in performance, while only a few managed to maintain single-digit growth [2][10] Company Dynamics - Guizhou Moutai announced a share repurchase of 60 billion yuan and a new plan for the controlling shareholder to increase its stake by 30 to 33 billion yuan within six months, signaling confidence in the company's long-term value [3][4] - Li Du Liquor Company has suspended the supply of certain high-quality products due to resource scarcity, ensuring product quality and customer rights [5] - Shede Liquor launched a new low-alcohol product "Shede·Zizai" priced at 329 yuan, with a strategic partnership with JD.com for marketing and distribution [6] - Wuliangye's new product "Wuliangye·Yijianqingxin" was launched and sold out quickly during a live broadcast event, indicating strong market interest [7][8] - Moutai's new "Moutai 1935" product was launched with a controlled pricing model, aiming to solidify its position in the premium market segment [9] Industry Performance - Among 21 listed liquor companies, only six reported positive growth, with Moutai showing the highest increase of approximately 9% in revenue and net profit [10] - The beer industry showed mixed results, with Budweiser experiencing the largest decline, while Yanjing and Zhujiang breweries reported significant profit increases [12][13] - The yellow wine sector saw only one company, Kuaijishan, achieve double-digit revenue growth, while others like Guyue Longshan and Jinfeng reported declines [14] Industry Trends - The first half of 2025 saw a slight decrease in the production of liquor, with a total output of 191.59 million hectoliters, down 5.8%, while sales revenue increased marginally by 0.19% [16] - In Jiangsu Province, liquor production fell by 17% and beer production decreased by 3.9% in the first seven months of the year [17] Industry Events - The 114th National Sugar and Wine Fair is scheduled for March 26-28, 2026, in Chengdu, continuing to be a significant event for the industry [15] Personnel Changes - Zhu Xianghong has been appointed as the chairman of Huanghelou Liquor Company, while still serving as the general manager [18]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [36]. Core Insights - The market is currently active, with a total trading volume of 14.92 trillion yuan for the week, and the CSI 300 index increased by 2.71%. The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors outperformed the CSI 300, while other sectors like food and beverage, retail, media, and consumer services also showed positive returns [3][6]. - There is a noticeable divergence in performance across sub-sectors within the consumer sector, with recommendations to focus on high-growth areas that show improved sales dynamics, lower bases, and active channels. The macroeconomic consumption policies are expected to boost consumer demand [3][4]. Summary by Sections Social Services - The tourism sector is experiencing a resurgence, with companies like Ctrip and Huazhu Group reporting strong mid-year performances. Recommendations include focusing on OTA platforms and leading hotel chains [3][10]. - The government is set to introduce policies to expand service consumption, emphasizing the importance of service and product consumption in the current economic landscape [7]. Food and Beverage - Alcohol - The overall performance of the alcohol sector has shown a decline in net profit adjustments for Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025, but the baijiu index rose by 2.09%. The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are expected to influence demand positively [3][15]. - Key recommendations include high-end baijiu brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as mid-range and local brands [3][15]. Food and Beverage - Consumer Goods - The beverage sector, particularly functional drinks and snacks, remains robust, with companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Wei Long showing strong growth. The dairy sector is also expected to improve as raw milk prices stabilize [3][24]. - The restaurant supply chain is recovering, with leading companies like Haitian Flavoring and Anjuke Foods expected to see a turnaround in performance [3][26]. Key Company Announcements - Ctrip reported a 16% year-on-year increase in net operating income for Q2 2025, driven by strong travel demand [10]. - Midea Group achieved a revenue of 251.12 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 15.58% increase, while Gree Electric Appliances reported a slight revenue decline [13][14]. - The dairy sector is seeing improvements, with companies like Yili and Miaokelando expected to benefit from favorable market conditions [12][34].