Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has dropped significantly, with the wholesale reference price for 2025 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai falling to 1690 yuan, marking a new low since its listing and a cumulative decline of over 31% from its initial price [1][3]. Price Trends - The retail price of Feitian Moutai has shown a consistent downward trend throughout 2025, with significant drops occurring in June and October, including a breach of the 2000 yuan psychological barrier [2][3]. - The price of Feitian Moutai has decreased from 2220 yuan and 2255 yuan at launch to the current levels, indicating a substantial decline in market value [1][2]. Company Performance - Guizhou Moutai reported a total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.16%, while net profit increased by 8.89% to 45.403 billion yuan, both at the lowest growth rates in a decade [3]. - The revenue from Moutai liquor reached 75.589 billion yuan, with a growth of 10.24%, while the series liquor revenue was 13.763 billion yuan, growing by 4.69%, but both categories experienced a decline in gross margin [3]. Management Changes - The resignation of Chairman Zhang Deqin on October 27 has raised concerns about the strategic continuity of Guizhou Moutai, marking the fourth change in chairmanship within five years [3]. Industry Context - The price decline of Feitian Moutai reflects broader challenges in the Chinese liquor industry, with a reported 5.8% decrease in production among major liquor enterprises in the first half of 2025, marking the eighth consecutive year of decline [3][4]. - The China Alcoholic Drinks Association noted that 60% of liquor companies are experiencing price inversion, with 59.7% reporting reduced operating profits, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance [4]. Market Dynamics - The traditional peak consumption seasons have not reversed the market downturn, with sales during the dual festivals (National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival) declining by approximately 20% year-on-year [4][5]. - Despite some recovery in sales post-festivals, the overall market demand remains weak, with many companies actively seeking to clear inventory to maintain healthy channel development [6]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the adjustment phase in the liquor industry will continue, with expectations of further pressure on third-quarter performance reports [4][6].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has dropped significantly, with the wholesale price for 500ml bottles falling below 1700 yuan for the first time, indicating a broader decline in the liquor market and raising concerns about the financial health of Guizhou Moutai and the industry as a whole [1][3][4]. Price Trends - As of October 28, 2025, the wholesale reference price for 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai has decreased to 1690 yuan, down 25 yuan from the previous day, marking a new low since its market introduction [1][2]. - The price has seen a cumulative decline of over 31% from its initial prices of 2220 yuan and 2255 yuan [1]. - The price trajectory has shown a consistent downward trend since June 2025, with significant drops below key psychological thresholds [2]. Company Performance - Guizhou Moutai reported a total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.16%, while net profit increased by 8.89% to 45.403 billion yuan [3]. - Despite maintaining growth, these figures represent the lowest growth rates for the company in a decade, with both liquor and series liquor segments experiencing declines in gross margins [3]. Industry Context - The liquor industry is facing significant challenges, with a reported 5.8% decline in production among major liquor enterprises in the first half of 2025, marking the eighth consecutive year of production decline [3][4]. - Approximately 60% of liquor companies are experiencing price inversion, and 59.7% report reduced operating profits, indicating a supply-demand imbalance and increasing channel pressures [4]. - The number of large-scale liquor enterprises has decreased to 887, a reduction of over 100 companies year-on-year, leading to increased industry concentration [4]. Market Dynamics - The traditional peak consumption seasons have failed to reverse the market downturn, with sales during the dual festivals (National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival) declining by about 20% year-on-year [4]. - Major liquor companies are actively seeking new market opportunities through product differentiation and enhanced value propositions, as seen with Guizhou Moutai's recent product launches [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts generally expect the industry adjustment to continue, with some suggesting that the current phase represents a "supply clearing" bottom adjustment stage [4][5]. - The overall market demand remains weak, with ongoing pressures on business consumption and a cautious outlook for the third-quarter performance of liquor companies [6].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has dropped significantly, reflecting broader challenges in the Chinese liquor industry, with a notable decline in both revenue growth and market demand [1][3][4]. Price Trends - As of October 28, 2025, the wholesale reference price for 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai has fallen to 1690 yuan, marking a decrease of 25 yuan from the previous day and the first time it has dropped below 1700 yuan [1][2]. - The price has decreased over 31% from its initial listing prices of 2220 yuan and 2255 yuan [1]. - The downward trend began in June 2025, with prices falling below key psychological thresholds, including 2000 yuan, 1900 yuan, and 1800 yuan [2]. Company Performance - Guizhou Moutai reported a total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, but the growth rate is the lowest in a decade [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 45.403 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.89% year-on-year growth [3]. - Revenue from Moutai liquor reached 75.589 billion yuan, up 10.24%, while series liquor revenue was 13.763 billion yuan, growing by 4.69% [3]. Industry Challenges - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with production among large-scale enterprises declining for the eighth consecutive year, down 5.8% in the first half of 2025 [3][4]. - Approximately 60% of liquor companies are facing price inversion, and 59.7% have reported reduced operating profits, indicating a supply-demand imbalance and increasing channel pressures [4]. - The number of large-scale liquor enterprises has decreased to 887, down by over 100 compared to the previous year, leading to increased industry concentration [4]. Market Dynamics - Traditional peak consumption seasons have failed to reverse the market's downward trend, with sales during the dual festivals (National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival) declining by about 20% year-on-year [4][5]. - Major liquor companies, including Guizhou Moutai, are launching new products to adapt to changing market demands, such as commemorative editions and premium versions [5]. - Analysts predict that the industry will continue to face adjustments, with expectations of further performance declines in quarterly reports [5].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market, particularly the high-end segment represented by Moutai, is experiencing a significant boost during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday season, indicating a shift towards rational consumption patterns [1][2][4] - Moutai's performance is characterized by stable pricing and strong sales momentum, with the price of its flagship product, Flying Moutai, remaining between 1900 to 2100 RMB per bottle, reflecting healthy inventory levels and robust demand [1][2] - The company has successfully diversified its product offerings beyond Flying Moutai, launching several new products that cater to various consumer needs, thereby capturing additional market demand [2][4] Market Performance - Sales of Moutai have shown a remarkable increase, with terminal sales volume doubling month-on-month and growing over 20% year-on-year since September [1] - The demand for Moutai is driven by gifting and social gatherings, with consumers showing a preference for immediate consumption rather than speculative buying [2][4] - The company's strategic market research and initiatives have transformed market challenges into opportunities, reinforcing its position in the high-end liquor market [4] Consumer Behavior - The shift in consumer behavior reflects a move from speculative purchasing to immediate consumption, with customers now more willing to buy Moutai for personal use rather than as an investment [2][4] - New consumer segments, particularly urban professionals from industries such as finance and technology, are increasingly attracted to Moutai's products, aligning with the brand's strategy of selling a lifestyle rather than just liquor [4]

Group 1 - The wholesale reference price for 2025 Feitian Moutai (53 degrees/500ml) has dropped to 1770 RMB per bottle, marking a new low since its launch, down 20.27% from the initial price of 2220 RMB per bottle [1] - The price for a case of Feitian Moutai remains stable at 1790 RMB per bottle, also a new low, down over 20% from the original price of 2255 RMB per bottle [1] - The price of Feitian Moutai has reached as low as 1700 RMB, with some stores on Pinduoduo selling it at 3400 RMB for two bottles, equivalent to 1700 RMB per bottle [1] Group 2 - The white liquor industry is preparing for the peak season ahead of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, despite the third quarter typically being a slow consumption period [1] - Moutai has launched several new products this quarter, including a limited edition commemorative liquor for the 70th anniversary of the five-star trademark, priced at 7000 RMB, with a current wholesale price stabilizing at 10,000 RMB [1] - Moutai's cultural and creative products continue to expand, with the "Huang Xiaoxi Dinner" series selling out quickly after its launch [1] Group 3 - The ultra-high-end products above Feitian are also being iterated, with the announcement of upgraded packaging and new anti-counterfeiting measures for Guizhou Moutai (premium) at the Guizhou Wine Expo [2] - The recent launch of Moutai 1935 exclusive version has introduced a new channel model [3] Group 4 - The core product supporting Moutai's performance remains the Moutai liquor, with the kilogram Moutai emerging as a new core product, currently priced above 3300 RMB in wholesale [4]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid introduction of new products by liquor companies is a proactive strategy to combat shrinking consumption and intense competition in the existing market [1][10]. Group 1: Product Launches by Guizhou Moutai - Guizhou Moutai has launched over 10 new products in the past two months, marking an unprecedented frequency in the industry [2][4]. - Notable product launches include the Taiyuan Red health wine on August 4, a limited edition commemorative wine on August 8, and the Moutai 1935 premium version on August 25 [4]. - The company has also introduced a series of cultural products and new packaging formats, indicating a strong push for innovation [4][10]. Group 2: Other Brands Following Suit - Other liquor brands have also begun to introduce new products, albeit in smaller quantities, reflecting a rare trend of concentrated innovation across the industry [5][10]. - Brands like Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu have launched new products, including a craft beer and upgraded versions of existing offerings [7][10]. - The trend includes a focus on low-alcohol products and light bottle designs, catering to younger consumers and the mass market [11]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Strategies - The recent surge in product launches is a response to significant market pressures, including regulatory changes and declining consumer interest [10][11]. - Companies are adopting strategies to stimulate consumer demand through product innovation and enhanced online sales channels [10][11]. - The emphasis on light bottle products and low-alcohol options indicates a shift towards appealing to younger demographics and expanding market reach [11].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai has reached a new low, with significant declines observed in both wholesale and retail prices, indicating a challenging market environment for the brand [1][3][6]. Price Trends - As of September 14, 2023, the wholesale reference price for 25-year Moutai (53 degrees/500ml) in loose bottles is reported at 1770 RMB, down 10 RMB from the previous day, marking a new low since its launch [1]. - The original box price for the same product remains at 1790 RMB, also a new low, reflecting a decline of over 20% from its initial price of 2255 RMB [1]. - The kilogram Moutai (53 degrees/1L) is priced at 3300 RMB, down 18.92% from its launch price of 3700 RMB earlier this year [3]. Market Dynamics - Despite the general trend of declining prices, the white liquor industry is preparing for the peak consumption season around the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, with Moutai launching several new products to stimulate demand [8]. - Moutai has been actively engaging with over 200 distributors across various regions, indicating a strategic effort to strengthen market presence [8]. - Limited edition products, such as the 70th Anniversary Commemorative Moutai, have been well-received, with a stable wholesale price around 10,000 RMB, reflecting strong demand in the collectible and gifting markets [8]. Product Development - Moutai is expanding its product line with creative cultural products, which have seen rapid sales, indicating a successful diversification strategy [8]. - The company is also iterating on its high-end products, with recent upgrades announced for premium offerings, including new packaging and anti-counterfeiting measures [8]. - The kilogram Moutai is emerging as a new core product, with increasing inquiries and purchases noted in the market [9].

Core Insights - The wholesale price of 25-year Flying Moutai has reached a new low of 1770 RMB per bottle, down 20.27% from its initial price of 2220 RMB when the platform launched [1] - The original box price for 25-year Flying Moutai remains at 1790 RMB, also a new low, down over 20% from its launch price of 2255 RMB [1] - The kilogram Moutai has also hit a new low of 3300 RMB, down 18.92% from its price of 3700 RMB at the beginning of the year [1] Pricing Trends - The price of 25-year Flying Moutai (53 degrees/500ml) has decreased to 1770 RMB for loose bottles and remained stable at 1790 RMB for original boxes [2] - The kilogram Moutai (53 degrees/1L) has seen a slight decrease to 3300 RMB [2] - The price of 25-year Flying Moutai has been observed as low as 1700 RMB on platforms like Pinduoduo, indicating a competitive pricing environment [6] Market Dynamics - The white liquor industry is preparing for the peak season ahead of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, with Moutai Group conducting market research among over 200 distributors [6] - Moutai has launched several new products this quarter, enhancing its market appeal and addressing new consumer demands [6] - Limited edition products, such as the 70th Anniversary Commemorative Moutai, are targeting the collectible and gifting market, with a stable wholesale price around 10,000 RMB [6] Product Development - Moutai is iterating on its high-end products, with upgrades announced for its premium offerings and new anti-counterfeiting measures [7] - The kilogram Moutai is emerging as a new core product alongside traditional offerings like Flying Moutai and Zodiac Moutai [7] - Increased inquiries and purchases for Flying Moutai have been noted in local channels, indicating a potential uptick in demand [8]

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai reported a revenue of 91.094 billion yuan and a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.16% and 8.89% respectively, despite a slowdown in profit growth [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan, marking a 9.16% increase year-on-year [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 45.403 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.89% year-on-year growth [2]. - The company has a three-year dividend plan, committing to distribute no less than 75% of the annual net profit as cash dividends from 2024 to 2026 [3]. Dividend Policy - For 2024, the proposed cash dividend is 276.24 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 34.671 billion yuan, with an expected cumulative dividend of approximately 64.7 billion yuan for the year, resulting in a dividend rate of 75% and a dividend yield of about 3.33% [3]. - The company is considering maintaining its dividend policy and has already implemented a buyback of 6 billion yuan this year [4]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing market strategies and maintaining channel resilience amid industry adjustments and changing consumer trends [2]. - There has been a noted improvement in terminal sales as of late August, with significant growth compared to June and July, indicating a potential positive market trend [5]. Product Development - Guizhou Moutai has launched several new products this year, including limited editions and creative cultural products, which have been well-received in the market [5]. - The company is committed to enhancing brand building and consumer group cultivation, particularly in series wines and overseas markets [5]. Sales and Marketing - The sales expense ratio remains around 3%, the lowest in the industry, indicating effective cost management despite absolute increases in sales expenses [6]. - The company is adapting its marketing strategies and expanding consumption scenarios to meet the rational consumption trends in the market [6].

Core Insights - The white liquor industry is entering a peak season as the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival approach, with Moutai signaling a positive market recovery [1] - Moutai's management has conducted extensive market research, indicating a significant increase in terminal sales since late August, suggesting a favorable market trend [1][2] - Despite a generally sluggish consumption atmosphere in the white liquor sector this year, Moutai has successfully launched new products and adapted its strategies to meet diverse consumer demands [2][3] Market Trends - Moutai's management has emphasized the importance of continuous market research to inform operational decisions, with multiple surveys conducted across various provinces and channels [2] - The third quarter, typically a slow season for white liquor consumption, has seen Moutai introduce several new products that cater to niche markets, such as collectible and gift items [2] - The price of Moutai's core products, including the 1000ml Moutai, has recently increased, reflecting a growing demand in the market [3] Product Strategy - Moutai is diversifying its product offerings, including limited edition and cultural products, to enhance consumer engagement and drive sales [2][3] - The company has adopted a multi-channel strategy, ensuring that different products are marketed through appropriate channels based on consumer response and market demand [5] - Moutai's core products remain the main revenue drivers, with a focus on understanding and adapting to changing consumer preferences and behaviors [3][4] Channel Strategy - The concept of "collaboration" has become central to Moutai's channel development strategy, aiming to enhance efficiency and create a complementary channel ecosystem [5] - Moutai has established a "4+6" channel layout system to optimize the functionality of various sales channels [5] - The management has reiterated the importance of maintaining strategic focus to navigate market fluctuations and ensure sustained growth [5]