【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡整理 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 27 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周五持仓量减仓 4226 手，成交量相比上一 交易日缩量，成交量 595003 手。日均线来看短期上破 5 日均线，但中期 30 日均 线，60 日均线压力依旧存在，最低 3047，最高 3070，收于 3067 元/吨，上涨 1 元/吨，涨幅 0.03%。 供应端：节前螺纹钢周度产量由高位回落。2026 年 2 月 26 日当周， 螺纹钢产量为 165.1 万吨，较前一周减少 5.28 万吨，公历同比减少 41.4 万 吨，2026 年产量显著低于 2023-2025 年同期，说明钢厂在春节前后主动减产， 以应对需求疲软和库存压力。 需求端：终端需求断崖式下滑处于历史低位。2026 年 2 月 26 日当周， 当期表需仅 33.55 万吨，环比上周减少 54.60 万吨，同比下降 157.16 万吨， 处于近三年同期最低水平。 这主要是春节前后工地停工、终端采购停滞导 致的季节性淡季，属于正常的节前/节后现象，但降幅远超往年，说明今年 需求复苏的预期更弱。 库存端：厂库、社库双增 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The current resumption of production on the supply side of rebar continues, and the demand side is supported by pre - holiday winter stockpiling and shows resilience. The total inventory and social inventory are at a low level year - on - year, and the overall inventory pressure is controllable. The low inventory and resilient demand support the price. The output increased slightly this week, and the raw material end has strengthened again to support the price. Currently, the macro - expectation of the policy end is loose and positive, providing certain support. The moving average shows that it has re - stood on the 5 - day and 30 - day moving averages, showing a strong trend. Maintain a bullish view [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract increased its positions by 40,973 lots on Thursday, with trading volume increasing compared to the previous trading day, reaching 1,026,450 lots. From the perspective of the moving average, it broke through the short - term 5 - day moving average and the medium - term 30 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,120 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,159 yuan/ton, and it closed at 3,157 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.12% [1] - Spot price: The mainstream area's spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,250 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 93 yuan/ton to the spot price. The basis was still large, providing certain support. Winter stockpiling in the futures market had a certain cost - performance [1] Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: As of the week of January 29, the rebar output increased by 0.28 tons week - on - week to 1.9983 million tons, and increased by 221,600 tons year - on - year. The output rebounded slightly this week and increased significantly compared to the same period last year, reflecting that the steel mills' production resumption momentum accelerated, suppressing the price in the short term. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to whether the capacity recovery can be sustained [2] - Demand side: The apparent demand decreased week - on - week (in line with the seasonal law of construction site shutdown before the Spring Festival) but increased significantly year - on - year, indicating that the demand recovered year - on - year. As of the week of January 29, the apparent demand data was 1.764 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 91,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 978,500 tons. The overall demand increased significantly compared to last year, showing resilience. There was still support from winter stockpiling demand before the festival [2] - Inventory side: The total inventory increased week - on - week but decreased significantly year - on - year, and the overall inventory was at a low level. As of the week of January 29, the total inventory was 4.7553 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 234,300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.776 million tons. The social inventory was 3.264 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 232,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.2388 million tons. The factory inventory was 1.4913 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 150 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 537,200 tons. The inventory pressure of manufacturers was significantly relieved year - on - year, and the social inventory pressure decreased year - on - year, providing support for the price [2][3] Macroeconomic situation - The central bank released a moderately loose signal, and the Ministry of Finance emphasized that the expenditure intensity would only increase. However, due to the drag of real estate demand, the incremental demand was relatively limited macro - economically. The loose cycle provided certain support, and the upper limit of demand determined the pressure [3] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The inventory is at a low level in the past three years, the supply side has reduced production due to anti - involution, the production capacity is strictly controlled, the policy supports the demand, the demand will recover marginally after the Spring Festival, and the macro - expectation is loose [4] - Bearish factors: The inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival exceeds expectations, the inventory removal speed slows down, the blast furnace production resumption accelerates, the winter stockpiling demand is cautious, the real estate demand continues to decline, the export is restricted, and the economic recovery is weak [4]

【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡整理 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 26 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周一持仓量减仓 10906 手，成交量相比上 一交易日放量，成交量 809245 手。日均线来看向上站稳短期 5 日均线，中期 30 日均线，最低 3140，最高 3160，收于 3143 元/吨，上涨 9 元/吨，涨幅 0.29%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3280 元/吨， 相比上一交易日上涨 10 元。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 137 元/吨。基差仍然较大，有一定支撑。盘面 冬储有一定性价比。 二、基本面数据 1，供需情况： 供应端：截至 1 月 22 日当周，螺纹钢产量环比上升 9.25 万吨至 199.55 万吨，公历同比上升 25.42 万吨，产量本周同比增幅显著，反应钢 厂复产动能加快，短期压制价格，后续需要继续关注产能恢复力度能否持 续。 ■宏观面：央行释放适度宽松信号，财政部强调支出力度只增不减， 但房地产需求拖累，宏观来说增量需求相对有限，但宽松周期相对起到支 撑，需求上限决定压力。 三、驱动因素分析 驱动因素： ■偏 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The current demand for rebar is seasonally weak. The data released last week showed an uptick, indicating that the winter storage demand is starting. With about one month until the Spring Festival, there are expectations for the winter storage market. The output has slightly declined and is at a relatively low level compared to recent years. The anti - involution policy is expected to shrink production capacity, providing support at the bottom. The inventory has slightly decreased and is at a relatively low level with little pressure. The cost support has shifted downwards as iron ore and coking coal prices have weakened. The real - estate demand continues to decline, limiting the upside potential. After the recent decline, the market has digested the weak real - estate data, and the price is near the previous integer - level support. It is recommended to take a cautiously bullish approach at this level [4]. Group 3: Market行情 Review - Futures price: The rebar main contract on Wednesday had an increase of 1,023 lots in open interest, and the trading volume decreased compared to the previous trading day, with 633,661 lots. It stopped falling and stabilized, breaking below the 5 - day moving average, but was supported by the 10 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages. It stabilized near the 3,100 integer level, with a low of 3,104 yuan/ton, a high of 3,122 yuan/ton, and closed at 3,117 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.35% [1]. - Spot price: The mainstream area's spot price for HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 153 yuan/ton to the spot price. The large basis provided some support, and winter storage on the futures market was somewhat cost - effective [1]. Group 4: Fundamental Data - Supply: As of the week of January 15, rebar production decreased by 0.74 tons week - on - week to 190.3 tons, after four consecutive weeks of increase. It was 2.99 tons lower year - on - year in the Gregorian calendar. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 surveyed steel mills was 78.84%, down 0.47 percentage points week - on - week but up 1.66 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, down 0.56 percentage points week - on - week but up 1.20 percentage points year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, up 2.17 percentage points week - on - week but down 10.39 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 228.01 tons, down 1.49 tons week - on - week. This week's output decline and relatively low production compared to recent years provided some support for prices [2]. - Demand: The apparent consumption rebounded, and winter storage may have started. As of the week of January 15, the apparent consumption increased by 15.38 tons week - on - week to 190.34 tons, and was 5.19 tons higher year - on - year. After three consecutive weeks of decline, the apparent consumption rebounded significantly, indicating the possible start of winter storage demand [2]. - Inventory: The inventory decreased slightly, with a decrease in mill inventory and an increase in social inventory. As of the week of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 0.04 tons week - on - week to 438.07 tons. The social inventory was 295.41 tons, increasing by 5.23 tons week - on - week but still at a relatively low level in recent years. The mill inventory was 142.66 tons, down 5.27 tons. The increase in social inventory indicated weak downstream demand, while the decrease in mill inventory indicated some winter storage by traders [3]. - Macroeconomic: The central bank signaled moderate easing, and the Ministry of Finance emphasized that expenditure would only increase. However, due to the drag from real - estate demand, the incremental demand at the macro - level was relatively limited, but the easing cycle provided some support, and the upper limit of demand determined the pressure [3]. Group 5: Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The inventory was at a three - year low, the supply side was reducing production due to anti - involution, production capacity was strictly controlled, policies supported demand, post - holiday demand was expected to improve marginally, and the macro - economic outlook was optimistic [4]. - Bearish factors: There was an unexpected increase in inventory after the Spring Festival, the inventory reduction speed slowed down, blast furnace restart accelerated, winter storage demand was cautious, real - estate demand continued to decline, exports were restricted, and economic recovery was weak [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term view of the steel industry is an oscillatory pattern with support at the bottom and pressure at the top, maintaining the idea of buying at support levels and participating flexibly [4] Core Viewpoints - The current rebar market is in an oscillatory and weak state. The demand is seasonally weak but winter storage demand is starting. The production is slightly decreasing and at a relatively low level compared to recent years. The inventory is slightly decreasing and at a relatively low position with little pressure. The cost support is decreasing, and the real - estate demand continues the downward cycle, limiting the upside space, while the infrastructure demand may have some resilience [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 (Market Review) - Futures price: On Monday, the rebar main contract's open interest decreased by 27,384 lots, and the trading volume shrank compared to the previous trading day, with 1,056,242 lots. The price was oscillatory and weak throughout the day, breaking below the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages in the short - term. It closed at 3,140 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton or 1.04%, with a low of 3,134 and a high of 3,171 [1] - Spot price: The mainstream area's rebar HRB400E 20mm was quoted at 3,290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the spot price. The large basis provided some support, and there was a certain cost - effectiveness for the winter storage on the futures market [1] Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: As of the week of January 15, the rebar production decreased by 0.74 million tons week - on - week to 1.903 billion tons, starting to decline slightly after four consecutive weeks of increase. It was 2.99 million tons lower year - on - year in the Gregorian calendar. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, down 0.47 percentage points week - on - week and up 1.66 percentage points year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, down 0.56 percentage points week - on - week and up 1.20 percentage points year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, up 2.17 percentage points week - on - week and down 10.39 percentage points year - on - year; the daily average pig iron output was 2.2801 billion tons, down 1.49 million tons week - on - week. The current production was still relatively low compared to recent years, providing some support for the price [2] - Demand side: The apparent consumption rebounded, indicating that winter storage might have started. As of the week of January 15, the apparent consumption increased by 15.38 million tons week - on - week to 1.9034 billion tons, and was 5.19 million tons higher year - on - year. After three consecutive weeks of decline, the apparent consumption rebounded significantly, suggesting the start of winter storage demand [2] Inventory situation - The total inventory decreased slightly by 0.04 million tons week - on - week to 4.3807 billion tons as of the week of January 15. The social inventory was 2.9541 billion tons, up 5.23 million tons week - on - week but still at a low level in recent years, and the steel mill inventory was 1.4266 billion tons, down 5.27 million tons. The accumulation of social inventory indicated weak downstream demand, and the reduction of steel mill inventory indicated that traders had a certain amount of winter storage [3] Macroeconomic situation - The central economic meeting proposed to use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly and efficiently to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It aimed to stabilize the real - estate market, control new supply, reduce inventory, and optimize supply according to local conditions, and encourage the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macro - economic expectation was moderately positive. The 15th Five - Year Plan provided a transformation path for the steel industry, focusing on "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality". Macroscopically, the incremental demand was relatively limited, but the loose cycle provided some support, and the upper limit of demand determined the pressure [3] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The inventory was at a three - year low, the supply side was cutting production to avoid excessive competition, production capacity was strictly controlled, policies supported demand, the demand would marginally improve after the Spring Festival, and the macro - economic expectation was loose [4] - Bearish factors: The inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival might exceed expectations, the de - stocking speed would slow down, the blast furnace restart would accelerate, the winter storage demand was cautious, the real - estate demand continued to decline, exports were restricted, and the economic recovery was weak [4] Short - term View Summary - After the accident at Baotou Steel over the weekend, the futures market rose slightly in the morning session, but the real - estate data released today continued to decline, and the market weakened again. Currently, the rebar demand was seasonally weak, but the data released last week showed an increase, indicating that winter storage demand was starting. The production decreased slightly and was at a relatively low level compared to recent years. The anti - excessive competition policy was expected to shrink production capacity, providing downward support. The inventory decreased slightly and was at a relatively low level with little pressure. In terms of cost, iron ore prices fell sharply today, port inventory was high, and coking coal and coke prices were weak, reducing cost support. The real - estate demand continued the downward cycle, with limited incremental demand, restricting the upside space. However, infrastructure demand might have some resilience. In the short - term, the price broke below the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages, and in the medium - term, support should be watched at the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. Currently, the market was in an oscillatory pattern with support at the bottom and pressure at the top. It was advisable to maintain the idea of buying at support levels and participate flexibly [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautiously bullish outlook on the rebar market, suggesting that buying on dips is relatively safe [5]. Report's Core View - Currently, the seasonal decline in rebar demand is evident, but there is potential for demand to be boosted by the warming sentiment of winter storage. Production continues to rise but remains relatively low compared to recent years. Anti - involution policies are expected to shrink production capacity, providing downside support. Inventory has started to accumulate but is at a relatively low level with limited pressure. In January, the market enters the inventory accumulation cycle, and the subsequent inventory accumulation situation needs attention. The raw material cost is relatively strong, with coke enterprises resisting price cuts. The real estate demand continues to decline, limiting the upside potential, but infrastructure demand may have some resilience. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support around the 10 - day moving average [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Wednesday, the rebar main contract increased its open interest by 3,518 lots, with a lower trading volume than the previous trading day (764,719 lots). The price fluctuated throughout the day, briefly rising above the 5 - day, 10 - day, and 20 - day moving averages, with a low of 3,152 yuan/ton, a high of 3,175 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 3,162 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03% [1]. - Spot price: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar remained stable at 3,300 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 138 yuan/ton to the spot price. The relatively large basis provided some support, and winter storage in the futures market was considered cost - effective [1]. Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: As of the week ending January 8, rebar production increased by 28,200 tons week - on - week to 1.9104 million tons, rising for four consecutive weeks, but was 83,700 tons lower year - on - year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 surveyed steel mills was 79.31%, up 0.37 percentage points week - on - week and 2.13 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, up 0.78 percentage points week - on - week and 1.80 percentage points year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, down 0.44 percentage points week - on - week and 12.99 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot metal production was 2.295 million tons, up 20,700 tons week - on - week. Although production continued to rise, the weekly production of rebar was still low compared to recent years [2]. - Demand side: The off - season effect deepened, and winter storage was cautious. As of the week ending January 8, the apparent consumption decreased by 254,800 tons week - on - week to 1.7496 million tons and was 150,900 tons lower year - on - year. Construction in the north had stopped, and projects in the south were nearing completion. The apparent consumption had declined for three consecutive weeks. Future focus should be on the start of winter storage demand [2]. - Inventory side: Inventory began to accumulate. As of the week ending January 8, the total inventory increased by 160,800 tons week - on - week to 4.3811 million tons, starting to build up after nine consecutive weeks of depletion. The social inventory was 2.9018 million tons, up 75,200 tons week - on - week but still at a low level in recent years, and the steel mill inventory was 1.4793 million tons, up 85,600 tons. The accumulation of social inventory indicated weak downstream demand, and future inventory accumulation should be monitored [3][4]. Macroeconomic situation - The central economic meeting proposed to use reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly and efficiently to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market, control new supply, reduce inventory, and optimize supply according to local conditions. There are also incentives to acquire existing commercial housing for affordable housing. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macroeconomic outlook is moderately positive. The 14th Five - Year Plan provides a transformation path for the steel industry, emphasizing "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality." Although the incremental demand is relatively limited from a macro perspective, the loose policy cycle provides some support, and the upper limit of demand determines the pressure [4]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Inventory at a three - year low, supply - side anti - involution production cuts, strict production capacity control, policy support for demand, marginal improvement in post - holiday demand, and a loose macroeconomic outlook [5]. - Bearish factors: Excessive inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival, slower inventory depletion, accelerated blast furnace restart, cautious winter storage demand, continuous decline in real estate demand, restricted exports, and weak economic recovery [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautiously bullish outlook on the rebar market and suggests that buying on dips is relatively safe [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current demand for rebar is seasonally weak, but attention should be paid to the potential increase in demand driven by the warming up of winter storage sentiment. Production continues to rise but is relatively low compared to recent years. The anti - involution policy is expected to shrink production capacity, providing support at the bottom. Inventory has started to accumulate but is at a relatively low level with limited pressure. In January, it enters the inventory accumulation cycle, and subsequent inventory accumulation should be monitored. The raw material cost is strong, and the real estate demand is in a downward cycle with limited incremental demand, restricting the upside. However, infrastructure demand may have some resilience. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support around the 10 - day moving average, and a cautiously bullish approach should be maintained [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract reduced its open interest by 38,760 lots on Tuesday, with lower trading volume than the previous trading day. The trading volume was 837,879 lots. It fluctuated and consolidated throughout the day, briefly falling below the 5 - day moving average but remaining above the 10 - day and 20 - day moving averages. The lowest price was 3,150 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,173 yuan/ton, and it closed at 3,158 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Spot price: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,310 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 152 yuan/ton to the spot price. The large basis provided some support, and winter storage on the futures market was cost - effective [1] Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: As of the week ending January 8, rebar production increased by 28,200 tons to 1.9104 million tons week - on - week, rising for four consecutive weeks. It was 83,700 tons lower than the same period last year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 surveyed steel mills was 79.31%, up 0.37 percentage points week - on - week and 2.13 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, up 0.78 percentage points week - on - week and 1.80 percentage points year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, down 0.44 percentage points week - on - week and 12.99 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot metal output was 2.295 million tons, up 20,700 tons week - on - week. Although production continued to rise, the weekly rebar production was still relatively low compared to recent years [2] - Demand side: The off - season effect deepened, and winter storage was cautious. As of the week ending January 8, the apparent consumption decreased by 254,800 tons to 1.7496 million tons week - on - week and was 150,900 tons lower than the same period last year. Construction in the north had stopped, and projects in the south were nearing completion. The apparent demand had declined for three consecutive weeks. Attention should be paid to the start of winter storage demand [2] - Inventory side: Inventory started to increase. As of the week ending January 8, the total inventory increased by 160,800 tons to 4.3811 million tons week - on - week, starting to accumulate after 9 consecutive weeks of depletion. The social inventory was 2.9018 million tons, up 75,200 tons week - on - week but still at a low level in recent years. The steel mill inventory was 1.4793 million tons, up 85,600 tons. The accumulation of social inventory indicated weak downstream demand, and subsequent inventory accumulation should be monitored [3][4] Macro - level - The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It aimed to stabilize the real estate market, control new supply, reduce inventory, and optimize supply according to local conditions, and encourage the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macro - economic outlook was moderately positive. The 15th Five - Year Plan provided a transformation path for the steel industry, focusing on "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality." Although the incremental demand was relatively limited, the loose cycle provided some support, and the demand ceiling determined the pressure [4] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Inventory at a three - year low, supply - side anti - involution production cuts, strict production capacity control, policy support for demand, marginal improvement in post - holiday demand, and loose macro - economic expectations [5] - Bearish factors: Excessive inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival, slower inventory depletion, accelerated blast furnace restart, cautious winter storage demand, continuous decline in real estate demand, restricted exports, and weak economic recovery [5] Short - term View Summary - The current demand for rebar is seasonally weak, but attention should be paid to the potential increase in demand due to the warming up of winter storage sentiment. Production continues to rise but is at a relatively low level compared to recent years. The anti - involution policy is expected to shrink production capacity, providing support at the bottom. Inventory has started to accumulate but is at a relatively low level with limited pressure. In January, it enters the inventory accumulation cycle, and subsequent inventory accumulation should be monitored. The raw material cost is strong, and the real estate demand is in a downward cycle with limited incremental demand, restricting the upside. However, infrastructure demand may have some resilience. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support around the 10 - day moving average, and a cautiously bullish approach should be maintained, with buying on dips being relatively safe [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current market has low supply, rising demand, strong raw materials, and inventory de - stocking, which provides support. The market has digested the off - season demand and steel export license news. It is expected to trade on the winter storage expectation in the future. In the short term, it is expected to continue to operate in a volatile and slightly upward trend. Attention should be paid to whether production capacity can continue to shrink and the start time of winter storage demand [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The open interest of the main rebar contract increased by 17,388 lots on Tuesday. The trading volume slightly decreased compared with the previous trading day. It fluctuated within the day, with the lowest at 3,111 yuan/ton, the highest at 3,144 yuan/ton, and closed at 3,136 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.06%. The trading volume was 837,866 lots [1]. - Spot price: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was 3,320 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 184 yuan/ton compared with the spot price, which provided some support for the futures price [1]. Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: As of the week of December 18, rebar production increased by 29,000 tons week - on - week to 1.8168 million tons, and decreased by 370,500 tons year - on - year. The production was at a near - 4 - year low. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.47%, down 0.16 percentage points week - on - week and 1.16% year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, unchanged from last week. The daily average pig iron output decreased by 26,500 tons to 2.2655 million tons, down 28,600 tons year - on - year [2]. - Demand side: Terminal demand was weak, with the average daily trading volume of building materials nationwide maintaining at 90,000 - 100,000 tons, at a near - 5 - year low. As of the week of December 18, the apparent consumption increased by 55,500 tons week - on - week to 2.0864 million tons, and decreased by 300,400 tons year - on - year, at a near - 4 - year low. There were regional differences in demand. Construction in the north stagnated due to cold weather, while in the south, existing projects rushed to complete, and demand had good resilience. The increase in apparent demand was higher than that in production. There was a possibility of winter storage driving demand later [2]. - Inventory side: Inventory continued to decline, and the decline rate increased. As of the week of December 18, the total inventory decreased by 269,600 tons week - on - week to 4.5254 million tons, with an 8 - week consecutive decline, but still 495,200 tons higher year - on - year. Social inventory was 3.13 million tons, down 257,000 tons week - on - week, and the de - stocking accelerated. Steel mill inventory was 1.3954 million tons, slightly down 12,600 tons. The de - stocking of social inventory showed the current demand resilience. The overall inventory pressure was still controllable [3][4]. Macroeconomic aspect The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly and efficiently to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It aimed to stabilize the real estate market, control new supply, reduce inventory, and optimize supply according to local conditions, and encourage the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macro - economic outlook was moderately positive. The 14th Five - Year Plan provided a transformation path for the steel industry, focusing on "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality" [4]. Cost aspect Iron ore was strong, and coking coal and coke futures stabilized and rose, which continued to increase cost support [5]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low supply, rising apparent demand, continuous inventory de - stocking, loose policy expectations, large discount on the futures market providing bottom support, strong iron ore, and significant rebound of coking coal and coke to increase cost support [6]. - Bearish factors: Seasonal weakening of terminal demand, more construction site closures in the north, cautious winter storage willingness of traders, and weak real estate data [6]. Short - term View Summary The market is expected to continue to operate in a volatile and slightly upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether production capacity can continue to shrink and the start time of winter storage demand [7].