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小米深度超賣後的技術反轉契機
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-24 20:19
小米股價近期經歷深度調整後,在38.4元水平初現企穩跡象,反彈0.84%雖不算強勁,卻可能預示著技術修復的開始。令人矚目的是,該股五日振幅高達 16.2%,技術指標層面呈現出罕見的強烈看漲信號。技術指標總結給出「強力買入」評級,信號強度達到13,是多日來少見的明確看漲格局。 RSI數值19已進入嚴重超賣區域,威廉指標顯示超賣狀態並發出買入信號,隨機震盪指標同樣給出買入信號,而變動率指標更明確指出「嚴重超跌,可能築 底」的技術特徵。儘管MACD與保力加通道仍維持賣出信號,但多個關鍵指標的一致性買入信號,是否足以讓您考慮在此位置進行左側布局? 關鍵價位分析顯示,小米目前首要挑戰41.6元的初步阻力,突破後下一目標看向45.1元。下行保護方面,35.8元構成近期重要支撐,若意外失守,下一防線 位於33元整數關卡。當前股價與移動平均線的關係透露出深度調整格局,股價明顯低於MA10的41.22元、MA30的44.43元及MA60的49.76元,這種大幅偏離 均線系統的狀態,從歷史經驗來看,往往蘊含著較大的技術修復空間。 從窩輪市場的近期表現觀察,熊證產品在下跌過程中展現了良好的收益表現。回顧近期數據,法興熊證64595 ...
11月7日【港股Podcast】恆指、華虹半導體 、中海油 、嗶哩嗶哩、中國移動 、贛鋒鋰業
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-09 20:29
Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) experienced a slight decline, closing at 26,241 points, which is a minor drop of less than 1% after a significant rise the previous day [1][2] - Technical signals indicate a majority "sell" signal, with support around 25,700 points and resistance at approximately 26,700 points, suggesting a potential trading range of about 1,000 points [2] - Investors are advised to choose safer products with recovery prices further from the current levels, such as 25,600 or 25,500 for bullish options, and above 26,700 for bearish options [2] Group 2 - Semiconductor company Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) showed a slight price drop, closing at 79.45 HKD, with support at around 73 HKD and resistance at 87.5 HKD [6] - Technical signals for Hua Hong indicate a slight majority of "buy" signals, with 8 buy signals compared to 6 sell signals [6][10] - CNOOC (00883.HK) is experiencing an upward trend, closing at 21.18 HKD, with resistance at 21.6 HKD and potential for further gains if it breaks this level [12][16] Group 3 - Bilibili (09626.HK) is showing weak performance, closing at 216 HKD, with potential further declines to 205 HKD if the downward trend continues [18] - China Mobile (00941.HK) is performing well, closing at 87.15 HKD, close to the upper Bollinger Band, with resistance at 88.1 HKD [19][22] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) closed at 52.7 HKD, near the upper Bollinger Band, with resistance at 55.9 HKD and a prevailing "sell" signal in the market [24][27]
11月3日【輪證短評】小鵬汽車、金沙中國、港交所、工商銀行
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-04 20:31
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the performance and investment opportunities related to various stocks, particularly focusing on options and warrants associated with these stocks [3][4][10] - The first stock analyzed is XPeng Motors (09868), which has shown a price increase, closing at 92 HKD, with potential resistance levels at 95.1 HKD and 99.7 HKD [3][4] - The article highlights four warrant products with exercise prices between 60 HKD and 61 HKD, noting their leverage ratios ranging from 3.3x to 3.5x, making them suitable for investors [4][5] Group 2 - The second stock discussed is Sands China (01928), which experienced a decline, closing at 19.95 HKD, but with increased trading volume, prompting interest in call options [10][11] - There is limited choice for January expiration products, leading to a recommendation for looking at April expiration products, which offer various types of options with leverage around 4x [11][12] - The article emphasizes the importance of comparing product terms, as even slight differences in leverage and implied volatility can significantly impact investment decisions [12][13] Group 3 - The third stock is Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388), which saw a price increase to 428.8 HKD, with a suggested support level at 417 HKD [16][17] - The article recommends selecting bull certificates with a redemption price below 412 HKD for safety, as they are less likely to be triggered compared to those closer to the current price [17][18] - It notes that the premium differences among these products can be significant, urging investors to carefully evaluate product terms [18] Group 4 - The fourth stock analyzed is Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398), which has shown a price increase to 6.17 HKD, with a resistance level at 6.2 HKD [21][22] - There are three put options available for January expiration, all being out-of-the-money, with exercise prices around 5.22 HKD [22][23] - The article stresses that while there are options available, none have a clear advantage, and investors should consider the bid-ask spread and the ability of these put options to respond to declines in the underlying stock [23]
11月4日【輪證短評】贛鋒鋰業、招商銀行、洛陽鉬業、華虹半導體
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-04 19:16
Group 1: Ganfeng Lithium (01772) - Ganfeng Lithium's stock price has been declining for three consecutive days, currently at 47.5 HKD, close to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands [1] - Investors speculate that the stock may drop further to around 41 HKD, with a support level at approximately 43.5 HKD; if it breaks this level, it could fall to about 37.6 HKD [1] - Some investors are optimistic about its future performance and are considering purchasing relatively priced call options [1] Group 2: China Merchants Bank (03968) - China Merchants Bank's stock has risen for three consecutive days, currently at 50.9 HKD, with increased trading volume [4] - There are options available with a strike price of 59 HKD, which is over 10% out of the money; it may take time for the stock to reach this level [4][5] - The available products show significant differences in leverage, with some having a leverage of 8.2 times and others up to 11 times [5][6] Group 3: Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) - Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price has dropped for three days, currently at 15.45 HKD, with expectations of further decline [7] - Investors are advised to wait for the stock to reach a support level of around 14.5 HKD before considering buying [7] - There are options available with strike prices around 14.88 HKD, with leverage ranging from 3.3 to 3.6 times [7][8] Group 4: Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) - Hua Hong Semiconductor's stock price has slightly decreased to 75.8 HKD, with a bearish outlook from investors [9] - There are options available with strike prices closer to the current market price, around 69 to 70 HKD, with leverage of approximately 2.3 times [10] - Investors are cautioned against options with strike prices too far from the current price, as they may not track the stock effectively [10]
10月31日【港股Podcast】恆指、友邦保險、中移動、中國生物制藥、百度、騰訊
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-03 03:33
Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) has shown a bearish sentiment, with some investors predicting a drop to 25,800 points, while others are looking at call options with a strike price of 28,743 points [1][2] - The HSI closed at approximately 25,906 points, indicating a significant decline, and the support level is around 25,500 points, with a potential drop to 25,000 points if this level is breached [1][2] Group 2: AIA Group (01299.HK) - AIA Group's stock price increased today, reaching a high of 76.8 HKD, with a closing price of around 75.45 HKD, and investors are optimistic about it surpassing 77 HKD, potentially reaching 90 HKD in the long term [8] - The resistance level for AIA Group is at 78.7 HKD, and if it breaks this level, it could rise to 80.3 HKD [8] Group 3: China Mobile (00941.HK) - China Mobile's stock price experienced a decline, closing at 85.25 HKD, with a support level at 82.1 HKD, and a potential drop to 78.8 HKD if this level is broken [11][12] - Investors are considering call options with a strike price of 99.4 HKD, expiring in December, but there are concerns about time decay due to the short duration [12] Group 4: China Biologic Products (01177.HK) - The stock price of China Biologic Products has been relatively stable, closing at 7.07 HKD after a low of 6.74 HKD, with a support level at 6.73 HKD [18] - There are currently more buy signals (9) than sell signals (6), indicating a potential buying opportunity [18] Group 5: Baidu Group-SW (09888.HK) - Baidu's stock price closed at 117.6 HKD, with a support level at 113.4 HKD, and a potential drop to 108.8 HKD if this level is breached [20] - Investors are considering put options due to the significant decline in trading volume [20] Group 6: Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) - Tencent's stock price closed at 629 HKD, with a support level at 613 HKD, and a potential drop to 591 HKD if it falls below this level [27] - Investors are advised to choose options with strike prices close to the current price to avoid issues with price tracking [27][28]
平保突破關鍵位,下個目標在哪?
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-30 21:09
Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of Ping An Insurance (02318) has attracted market attention, with its stock price rising by 2.14% to HKD 57.35, indicating significant capital inflow [1] Technical Analysis - The current trend of Ping An shows a complex pattern of "volume and price rising but indicators diverging." The stock price has successfully broken through the dual resistance of MA10 (HKD 55.65) and MA30 (HKD 54.14), with short-term moving averages in a bullish arrangement [1] - However, technical indicators are signaling a "sell," creating a notable divergence from the price trend. The RSI has risen to 68, nearing the overbought threshold, while the momentum oscillators suggest a "sell" warning in conjunction with the Bollinger Bands [1] - Key support levels are at HKD 55.5 (Support 1) and HKD 53.9 (Support 2), while resistance levels are at HKD 60.4 (Resistance 1) and HKD 62.5 (Resistance 2) [1] Derivative Products Performance - In the derivatives market, Ping An's warrants and bull/bear certificates have shown exceptional performance. For instance, UBS bull certificate 58105 surged by 50% within two days, and HSBC bull certificate 57987 increased by 49% [3] - Call options such as Bank of China call certificate 17070 rose by 34%, and UBS call certificate 21408 increased by 25%, significantly outperforming the underlying stock's 3.93% gain [3] Investment Opportunities - For bullish investors, Bank of China call certificate 18122 and UBS call certificate 18154 offer leverage of 12.5 times and 13.8 times, respectively, with a strike price set at HKD 67.23 and relatively low premiums [6] - For risk-averse investors, UBS bull certificate 61834 and JPMorgan bull certificate 59648 provide approximately 7.7 times leverage, with a recovery price around HKD 50.5, maintaining about a 13% safety margin from the current price [6] Bearish Options - Investors with a bearish outlook may consider HSBC put certificate 19792 and Morgan Stanley put certificate 20419, which offer favorable leverage and implied volatility [8] - Bear certificates such as JPMorgan bear certificate 54282 and UBS bear certificate 52561 provide around 8 times leverage, with recovery prices set at HKD 64.5 and HKD 65, respectively, maintaining about a 10% buffer from the current price [8]
10月28日【窩輪短評】小米集團、江西銅業、渣打集團、國泰航空
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-29 03:46
Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The analysis focuses on the performance and potential investment opportunities related to specific stocks, particularly Xiaomi, Jiangxi Copper, Standard Chartered, and Cathay Pacific, along with their corresponding financial products. Group 1: Xiaomi Group (01810) - Xiaomi's stock has seen a significant decline from a high of 59.9 HKD to a current price of 44.9 HKD, a drop of 15 HKD [1] - Technical signals currently indicate a "strong buy" for Xiaomi, suggesting a slight bullish outlook despite the recent downturn [1] - There are limited options for call products at the current price level, with some having exercise prices around 37 HKD and leverage between 2.1x to 2.6x [1] - If the stock price drops below 42.8 HKD, it may reach 38.2 HKD, making products with an exercise price of 37.15 HKD potentially attractive [2] - The market has few suitable out-of-the-money products, with exercise prices starting at 52 HKD, indicating a more than 10% out-of-the-money margin [3] Group 2: Jiangxi Copper (00358) - Jiangxi Copper's stock price closed at 32.82 HKD, slightly below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, indicating mixed market sentiment [6] - There are four put options available with exercise prices ranging from 28.88 HKD to 20 HKD, with varying leverage and implied volatility [7] - A comparison of put options shows that the 28.88 HKD exercise price has better leverage and implied volatility than the 23.35 HKD option, highlighting the importance of product comparison [7] Group 3: Standard Chartered (02888) - Standard Chartered's stock price increased to 153 HKD, with investors speculating whether it will challenge the previous high of 158.5 HKD [9] - There are currently limited suitable put options available for Standard Chartered, indicating a lack of investment products for bearish strategies [9] Group 4: Cathay Pacific (00293) - Cathay Pacific's stock has shown upward movement, closing at 11.26 HKD and breaking through the upper Bollinger Band [12] - There are limited options for call products, with only two available that have an exercise price of around 13 HKD and leverage of approximately 9.3x [13][14] - Investors are advised to compare the available products carefully, as the selection is currently limited, and the stock has already experienced a price increase [14]
10月28日【港股Podcast】恆指、匯豐、中芯、友邦、紫金礦業、騰訊
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-29 03:31
Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index has shown a slight decline of 0.33%, closing at 26,346 points, with market sentiment remaining cautious [1] - Support levels are identified at approximately 25,700 points, with potential further declines below 26,000 points [1] - Technical signals indicate a predominance of "sell" signals, with 10 sell signals compared to only 6 buy signals [1] Group 2: HSBC Holdings (00005.HK) - HSBC Holdings has experienced a notable increase in stock price, with significant trading volume, indicating positive investor sentiment [5] - The resistance level is at 109.7 HKD, and if surpassed, the stock could rise to 110 HKD or even 113.8 HKD [5] - Support levels are identified at 101.8 HKD and 97.6 HKD, with a recommendation for investors to consider products with a redemption price below 95 HKD for safety [5] Group 3: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981.HK) - The stock price has slightly decreased but remains above the Bollinger Bands middle line, closing at 80.1 HKD [10] - The support level is at 74.5 HKD, indicating a risk of further declines below the current price [10] - Technical signals are predominantly "sell," suggesting potential for further downward movement [10] Group 4: AIA Group Limited (01299.HK) - AIA has shown strong upward movement, with significant increases in stock price and trading volume [16] - The resistance level is at 76.2 HKD, and if broken, the stock could rise to 78.4 HKD [16] - The stock is approaching the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a potential peak [16] Group 5: Zijin Mining Group (02899.HK) - Zijin Mining's stock price has decreased, closing at 31.08 HKD, nearing the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands [21] - The support level is at 29.8 HKD, with potential further declines to 26.8 HKD if this level is breached [21] - Current technical signals are neutral, indicating a lack of clear direction for investors [21] Group 6: Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) - Tencent's stock price has declined, closing at 646.6 HKD, while maintaining position above the Bollinger Bands middle line [26] - The support level is at 625 HKD, with potential further declines to 596 HKD if this level is broken [26] - Technical signals are predominantly "sell," with 10 sell signals compared to 5 buy signals, indicating a weak short-term outlook [26]
10月24日【窩輪短評】中芯國際、蔚來汽車、思摩爾國際、阿里巴巴
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-25 20:21
Group 1: Company Analysis - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) is currently trading at 80 HKD, positioned above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a relatively positive performance [2] - Investors have shown interest in a specific bull certificate with a redemption price around 71.5 HKD, which is considered reasonable given the current support level of 72.6 HKD [2][3] - The street liquidity for this product has reached 100%, meaning all shares are held by investors, which limits the issuer's ability to maintain price control [3][4] Group 2: Product Selection - It is advisable to avoid high street liquidity products as they can lead to price volatility and difficulty in pricing by the issuer [4][5] - For SMIC, there are no near-term products available, but options expiring in June or July next year are more plentiful, with actual leverage ranging from 2.7x to 3.3x [5] - The implied volatility for these products varies significantly, with some at 57.1% and others as high as 65.2%, indicating a need for careful comparison of product terms [5] Group 3: NIO Inc. Analysis - NIO's stock price has shown mixed market sentiment, with some investors optimistic about a rebound while others foresee a continued downtrend [10][11] - There are currently seven put options available for NIO, all of which are out-of-the-money, with strike prices ranging from 27.66 HKD to 47.08 HKD [10][11] - The actual leverage for put options in the 40-47 HKD range is not attractive, suggesting investors may need to wait for new products to be introduced [11] Group 4: Product Comparison for NIO - There are some call options expiring between February and March next year with strike prices around 60-61 HKD, which align well with NIO's resistance level of 57.4 HKD [12] - Among these call options, some offer actual leverage up to 3.6x, with implied volatility around 80.5% [12] Group 5: Smoore International Analysis - Smoore International's stock has declined significantly, with a recent low of 13.78 HKD, but some investors believe it may be at a level worth monitoring for potential recovery [16][17] - The current short-term support level is at 13.4 HKD, and if it breaks this level, it may drop to 12 HKD, which is seen as a critical price point [16][17] Group 6: Product Availability for Smoore - There are limited options for call certificates, with most having strike prices significantly above the current market price, making them less attractive [17] - The ideal strike price for new products would be closer to 17-18 HKD, but current offerings are mostly above 20 HKD [17] Group 7: Alibaba Group Analysis - Alibaba's stock is currently facing resistance at the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, closing at 168.3 HKD, with a need to break through 177.4 HKD to reach higher levels [20][21] - There are numerous product options available for Alibaba, particularly those with strike prices around 180-182 HKD, offering actual leverage of approximately 4.9x [21][22] - Investors are encouraged to compare products carefully, as there are significant differences in implied volatility and premium among similar products [22][23]
10月22日【輪證短評】東方航空、石藥集團、紫金礦業、騰訊
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-23 08:08
Group 1: Eastern Airlines (00670) - Eastern Airlines has shown a strong upward trend, with the stock price increasing for six consecutive days and trading near the upper Bollinger Band [2][3] - The trading volume has significantly increased over the past six days, indicating strong investor interest [2] - Currently, there are limited options for call warrants related to Eastern Airlines, with no suitable products available in the market [2][3] - Technical signals suggest a "sell" strategy for short-term operations, despite the recent price increase [3] Group 2: CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) - CSPC Pharmaceutical has experienced a noticeable decline, with the stock price dropping to around 8.46 HKD, having previously attempted to reach the middle line of the Bollinger Band [5] - The stock may potentially drop to around 8 HKD, with a support level estimated at approximately 8.1 HKD [5] - There are limited put warrant options available, with only two products having a distant exercise price of 6.5 HKD, which is not advisable for investors expecting further declines [6] Group 3: Zijin Mining (02899) - Zijin Mining's stock price has also seen a significant drop, closing at 31.8 HKD, approaching the lower Bollinger Band [8] - Investors are currently adopting a wait-and-see approach, with a target entry point around 30 HKD, close to the support level of 29.3 HKD [8] - There are available call warrants with exercise prices around 28 HKD, 29 HKD, and 30 HKD, but caution is advised regarding products with short expiration dates [9] Group 4: Tencent (0700) - Tencent offers a wide range of derivative products, including call and put warrants, providing ample options for investors [13][14] - Investors holding call warrants with an exercise price of around 800 HKD should be cautious, as this represents a significant out-of-the-money position, approximately 29% to 30% away from the current stock price [14] - It is recommended to select products with an out-of-the-money margin of around 10% or less to mitigate risks associated with time decay and price movement [15][16]