Email：hejy02@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524070006 执业证书编号：S0740523020004 乘用车 | | | Email：baizz@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 1,633.37 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 1,509.78 | | 市价(元) | 130.12 | | 市值(百万元) | 212,533.60 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 212,533.60 | 相关报告 1、《赛力斯（601127.SH）：鸿蒙智 行合作典范，高确定性豪华 SUV 龙 头》2025-02-20 赛力斯（601127.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 07 月 16 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：何俊艺 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth in delivery numbers for the company, indicating a strong market position and potential for revenue growth in the upcoming quarters [1][5][8]. Delivery Performance - The company achieved a weekly delivery of 11,734 units, with M8 and M5 models showing steady increases, while M9 remained stable around 3,100 units [5]. - The order backlog stands at 69,000 units with a delivery cycle of approximately 2 months, indicating a healthy demand [5]. - The second quarter revenue is projected to be between 43 billion and 45 billion, with total deliveries expected to exceed 105,000 units [5]. Competitive Analysis - The company's weekly revenue gap with the second competitor has widened from 20 billion to 26 billion, with the company reaching a weekly revenue of 49.8 billion [8]. - Compared to competitors, the company's delivery numbers are on the rise, while another competitor, Li Auto, reported a year-on-year decline of 24% in deliveries [7][8]. Production Capacity - The production capacity for M9 and M8 has increased to a maximum of 8,800 units per week, reflecting a 10% improvement from the previous capacity of 8,000 units [1][5].

Group 1: Overall Performance - The overall performance for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 met expectations, with resilience in both domestic and foreign demand[1] - The retail sales of passenger vehicles in Q4 2024 increased by 17% year-on-year, supported by trade-in policies and government subsidies[26] - In Q1 2025, retail, export, and wholesale figures all showed positive year-on-year growth of 3%, 6%, and 13% respectively[26] Group 2: Automotive Sector Insights - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from a potential easing of the US-China trade war, which may alleviate previous concerns regarding external demand[2] - The AI and robotics sectors are prioritized for investment, with companies like Xpeng Motors and Horizon Robotics highlighted as key players[2] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in retail sales showed a slight decline, indicating a need for strategic adjustments[27] Group 3: Company-Specific Performance - Xpeng Motors reported a 23% increase in revenue for Q4 2024, with monthly deliveries exceeding 30,000 units despite seasonal disruptions[5] - BYD's revenue grew by 53% in Q4 2024, with a profit increase of 73%, driven by strong export performance[5] - The gross profit margin for the automotive sector showed mixed results, with some companies experiencing margin pressure due to increased competition and pricing strategies[3] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks include the potential escalation of the trade war, lower-than-expected global economic recovery, and uncertainties in geopolitical conditions[2] - The automotive industry faces challenges from rising raw material costs and the need for continuous innovation in L3-L4 autonomous driving technologies[2]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the sector to outperform the overall market [15]. Core Insights - 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for the penetration of intelligent driving (ID) technology, with BYD significantly enhancing consumer awareness of ID features, particularly among users in the 100,000 to 200,000 yuan and above 400,000 yuan price segments [5][6]. - Both Seres and Xpeng Motors are positioned as leaders in the high-end ID sector, benefiting from their technological maturity and user experience, despite competition from companies like Geely and Chery [5][6]. - The product iteration and market performance of both companies are noteworthy, with Xpeng planning multiple model upgrades and new launches, while Seres has seen strong pre-sale orders for its flagship models [7][8]. - The robotics business is emerging as a significant avenue for valuation expansion for both companies, with Xpeng's bionic robot set to be mass-produced by 2026 and Seres leveraging Huawei's technology for its robotics initiatives [8]. Summary by Sections Intelligent Driving Technology - The report highlights that 2025 will mark the acceleration of ID technology adoption, with BYD leading in consumer education and awareness [5][6]. - Seres and Xpeng are expected to benefit significantly from this trend due to their advanced ID technologies and positive user feedback [5][6]. New Vehicle Cycle - Xpeng plans to launch several upgraded models, including the G6, G9, X9, and P7i, alongside new models like G7 and G01, which are expected to stimulate market demand [7]. - Seres has received an overwhelming response for its M9 and M8 models, with pre-sale orders exceeding expectations, indicating strong market interest [7]. Robotics Business - Xpeng's bionic robot is already operational in its Guangzhou factory, with plans for mass production of an L3 humanoid robot by 2026 [8]. - Seres is also advancing in the robotics field, supported by Huawei's technology and local government initiatives, aiming for significant progress within the year [8]. Market Outlook - The combination of advancements in ID technology, new vehicle launches, and robotics initiatives is expected to drive sales and performance growth for both Seres and Xpeng in 2025 [8].