报告日期：2026 年 1 月 16 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评："组合拳"支持经济高质量发展 央行打出"组合拳"支持经济高质量发展。其中包括：下调再贷款、再贴现利率 0.25 个百分点；合并使用支农支小再贷款与再贴现额度，增加支农支小再贷款 额度 5000 亿元，总额度中单设 1 万亿元民营企业再贷款，重点支持中小民营企 业；科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度增加 4000 亿元并扩大支持范围；拓展碳减 排支持工具支持领域；将商业用房购房贷款最低首付比例下调至 30%。央行表示， 今年降准降息还有一定空间。美国白宫发布声明称，美国将从 1 月 15 日起对部 分进口半导体、半导体制造设备和衍生品加征 25%进口从价关税。英伟达 H200 芯 片和超威半导体 MI325X 均在此次加征关税范围内。用于数据中心、研发、维修 和公共部门等领域的半导体产品不在此次加征关税范围之内。国内商品期市夜盘 收盘多数下跌，能源品跌幅居前，燃油跌 2.82%；化工品多数下跌，非金属建材 全部下跌，黑色系多数下跌，焦煤跌 0.72%；油脂油料涨幅居前，菜油涨 2.57%； 农副产品多数上涨，玉米淀粉涨 0.55%。 重点品种：原 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-01-16 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-10-20 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.8 | 5.2 | 4.6 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 50.2 | 50.0 | 52.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M1:同比 | % | 3.8 | 7.2 ...

Group 1 - The central bank has implemented a series of measures to support high-quality economic development, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in re-lending and rediscount rates, and an increase of 500 billion yuan in re-lending for agriculture and small enterprises [3] - The U.S. White House announced a 25% import tariff on certain semiconductor products starting January 15, affecting Nvidia's H200 chip and AMD's MI325X, while excluding semiconductors for data centers and public sectors [3] - TSMC's Q4 2025 earnings exceeded expectations with a 35% year-on-year increase in net profit to approximately $16 billion, and the company raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $52-56 billion, nearly 40% higher than previous estimates [3] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce plans to combine policies to promote consumption and improve people's livelihoods in 2026, focusing on key areas and potential growth points [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission reported that the total social financing scale in 2025 reached 35.6 trillion yuan, with a net cash injection of 1.31 trillion yuan [5] - The financial regulatory authority emphasized the need to effectively manage risks in small financial institutions and support the real estate sector through coordinated financing mechanisms [5] Group 3 - The A-share market showed divergence with high-level stocks experiencing significant declines, while the semiconductor industry and precious metals sectors performed well [7] - The Hong Kong stock market faced fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.28%, while real estate stocks showed resilience [7] - The first gold ETF in China surpassed 100 billion yuan in circulation, becoming the largest in Asia [8] Group 4 - Major banks in the U.S. conducted over $140 billion in dividends and stock buybacks in 2025, exceeding previous records [21] - Goldman Sachs reported a 3% decline in Q4 2025 revenue to $13.5 billion, primarily due to its credit card business, while Morgan Stanley's revenue rose 10.3% to $17.89 billion [20][21] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced tax exemptions for foreign institutions investing in government bonds and local government bonds, extending until December 31, 2027 [22]