Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes prioritizing investments in magnet system suppliers to seize long-term opportunities in the Controlled Fusion Energy Demonstration Reactor (CFEDR) [5] - The report identifies two main investment logic paths in the nuclear fusion industry: one focusing on segments with clear performance visibility, particularly in magnet and power systems, and the other on companies with established validation and customer connections in the BEST phase [5][34] Summary by Sections 1. Current Progress in Nuclear Fusion Industry - The nuclear fusion industry is entering an engineering exploration phase, with CFEDR still in its early project stages [38] - The report highlights that the magnet system holds the highest value in the nuclear fusion device, accounting for 42.34% of total investment [55] 2. Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are primarily in segments with clear performance visibility, such as magnet systems with a cumulative budget of 370 million yuan and power systems exceeding 100 million yuan [5][34] - Companies with competitive advantages in these segments, such as Western Superconducting, Yingjie Electric, and Shanghai Superconducting, are recommended for attention [5][34] 3. Market Size and Growth - The global nuclear fusion market is projected to reach approximately 843.46 billion USD by 2040, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 6% from 2030 to 2040 [27] - The Chinese market is expected to grow to around 53.68 billion USD by 2040, with a CAGR of 6.4%, slightly higher than the global average [27] 4. Projected Investment in CFEDR - The total investment for CFEDR is estimated to be around 120 billion yuan, with equipment investment projected at approximately 72 billion yuan [31] - The report anticipates that CFEDR will accelerate into equipment bidding and installation phases following the completion of major components in the BEST project [68] 5. Key Components and Their Importance - The magnet system is identified as the core component of the Tokamak device, with significant investment and market concentration [55][56] - Superconducting materials are highlighted as a critical cost component within the magnet system, accounting for about 47% of its costs [55]

Summary of the Conference Call for 永鼎股份 Company Overview - **Company**: 永鼎股份 - **Key Business Areas**: 光芯片 (Optical Chips) and 超导带材 (Superconducting Materials) [2][3] Industry Insights - **Optical Chip Business**: - Benefiting from the growth of the AI industry, with multiple domestic partnerships established [2][4] - High-speed products like EML for 56G and 100G are now in mass production [4] - Expected to be a significant growth driver in the second half of the year [2][4] - **Superconducting Materials**: - Focus on controlled nuclear fusion superconducting tape, with increasing demand due to global emphasis on nuclear fusion [2][5] - The superconducting tape is primarily used in Tokamak devices, accounting for 15%-25% of the value in these applications [9] - Applications extend to maglev transportation, MRI, military degaussing cables, superconducting motors, and photovoltaic systems [9] Production Capacity and Expansion Plans - **Current Capacity**: - Plans to expand superconducting tape production capacity to 5,000 kilometers by the end of 2025, with a long-term goal of 20,000 kilometers [2][13] - Expected revenue from 5,000 kilometers is projected at 500 million yuan, and from 20,000 kilometers at 2 billion yuan [14] - **Production Technology**: - Utilizes MOCVD technology, which has superior performance in strong magnetic fields and is largely domestically sourced [10][12] - MOCVD is expected to have cost advantages in mass production compared to other technologies [12] Financial Performance and Market Position - **Profitability**: - Current average price per meter is 100 yuan, translating to approximately 1 billion yuan for 1,000 kilometers [14] - The company is currently in a phase of capacity expansion, which has not yet stabilized profit margins [18] - **Market Competition**: - Despite lower shipment volumes in the first half of the year, the company is optimistic about the second half, with a strong focus on high-speed chip development [21] - Competing with companies like 尚超, which has a head start in capacity expansion, but 永鼎股份 is rapidly catching up [22] Customer Base and Industry Trends - **Key Customers**: - Major clients include 上海超导, 东部超导, and various national research institutes, primarily in the controlled nuclear fusion sector [16] - **Industry Trends**: - The superconducting materials industry is experiencing rapid growth, with increasing demand and a tight supply side globally [23] - The company has a strong position due to its long-standing experience and partnerships in the superconducting materials field [23] Additional Insights - **Production and Delivery**: - Typical delivery cycles range from 6 to 8 months depending on customer requirements [19] - **Future Outlook**: - Continuous improvements in equipment and processes are expected to enhance yield and profitability in the coming periods [18]

Summary of Yongding Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yongding Co., Ltd. - **Date**: June 10, 2025 Industry Focus - **Key Industries**: Superconducting wire materials, optical chips, traditional optical products, and overseas power engineering projects Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Expansion in Superconducting Wire Materials**: Yongding is actively expanding its superconducting wire materials business, establishing partnerships with various enterprises and research institutions. The market demand is rapidly increasing, particularly in the controlled nuclear fusion sector, with plans to expand production capacity to 20,000 kilometers to meet this demand [2][7][13] 2. **Optical Chip Factory Completion**: The optical chip factory was completed in June 2023, and the company has established connections with leading domestic manufacturers. Sales are expected to see breakthroughs in the second half of this year and next year [4][2] 3. **Stable Traditional Business**: The traditional business segments, including optical rods, fibers, and cables, are maintaining stability. Overseas projects, such as the Bangladesh power grid renovation project valued at $1.14 billion, are expected to contribute to sales [6][2] 4. **Broad Market Prospects for Superconducting Materials**: The superconducting wire market has vast potential, with applications in controlled nuclear fusion, maglev transportation, MRI medical technology, and military sectors. However, domestic production capacity is currently insufficient [7][2] 5. **High Technical Barriers**: The technical barriers in superconducting materials are significant, primarily due to R&D investment and intellectual property accumulation. Yongding has invested heavily and developed core processes, making it one of the few manufacturers capable of large-scale production globally [10][2] 6. **Future Development Strategy**: The company plans to accelerate capacity expansion to meet growing market demand while continuing to push for technological advancements. The focus will be on developing optical chips and superconducting wire materials [8][9][2] Additional Important Points 1. **Market Demand Growth**: The demand for superconducting wire materials in the controlled nuclear fusion field has significantly increased, with requirements growing from several kilometers to potentially hundreds of kilometers in the coming years [3][2] 2. **Challenges in Material Development**: The compact design of devices poses challenges for internal materials, and while the issue of quenching has not been fully resolved, existing superconducting materials meet current design requirements [12][2] 3. **Production Capacity and Profitability**: Yongding aims to achieve a production capacity of 5,000 kilometers by the end of 2025, with current capacity exceeding 2,000 kilometers. The company plans to rapidly expand to 18,000 to 20,000 kilometers by 2026 [13][2] 4. **Diverse Applications Beyond Fusion**: The company is also making significant progress in various superconducting applications, including magnetic levitation technology and military applications, while also planning to promote superconducting cables and power applications [14][2] 5. **Strategic Layout in Optical and Electrical Fields**: Yongding's strategic layout focuses on enhancing its supply chain in both optical and electrical fields, with an integrated solution in the optical sector and increased investment in electric vehicle wiring and superconducting power [15][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the controllable nuclear fusion industry, particularly during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, anticipating a significant increase in capital expenditure and related equipment orders [4]. Core Insights - Controllable nuclear fusion is highlighted as a preferred future energy source due to its high energy density, easy-to-obtain raw materials, flexible layout, and environmental safety [1][13]. - The Q value, a critical indicator for the commercialization of nuclear fusion, has been consistently improving, surpassing 1, indicating energy balance [1][16]. - The industry is experiencing rapid international advancements, with a notable increase in financing, exceeding $7.1 billion in 2024, up by $900 million from 2023 [1][31]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Controllable Nuclear Fusion - Nuclear fusion offers significant advantages over other energy sources, including a million-fold increase in energy density compared to current systems [13]. - The Q value is essential for assessing the feasibility of nuclear fusion, with recent advancements showing a positive trend in its growth [16][20]. - Magnetic confinement is expected to become the mainstream approach for controllable nuclear fusion, currently holding a 62% market share [22]. Section 2: Technological Breakthroughs and Accelerated Bidding - The industry is currently in the experimental reactor construction phase, primarily led by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and China Nuclear Group [36]. - Significant breakthroughs in high-temperature superconductors are expected to accelerate the commercialization of nuclear fusion [45]. - The BEST project is advancing rapidly, with expectations to achieve significant milestones by 2027 [51][57]. Section 3: Core Value in the Midstream Equipment - The nuclear fusion industry chain consists of upstream materials, midstream equipment, and downstream nuclear applications, with midstream equipment currently seeing increased capital expenditure [62]. - The magnetic component represents the highest value segment within the nuclear fusion industry chain, accounting for 28% of the total costs in projects like ITER [63][66]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - Companies such as Hezhong Intelligent are expected to benefit from the capital expenditure associated with the BEST project, with projected revenue growth [69]. - Lianchuang Optoelectronics is positioned as a key player in high-temperature superconductors, with a strong market advantage [76]. - Guoguang Electric is recognized as a core supplier of critical components like the first wall and divertor in nuclear fusion applications [83].

文 ｜ 裘翔 刘春彤 杨家骥 高玉森 连一席 遥远 在彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施前，中美贸易谈判可能进展有限；国内的政策是托底和应对式的，4月只是第一波以试验和预防为特征 的政策；筹码出清相对彻底且对业绩不敏感的主题阶段性占优；市场整体情绪位置不算低，科技板块相对医药和消费更接近冰点，对风偏 回升更敏感。配置上，5月关注新技术和产业题材轮动、海外科技映射链修复以及服务业扩内需政策落地。 在彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施前， 中美贸易谈判可能进展有限 近期特朗普针对关税问题表态持续反复，美股市场反应较为敏感。但我们认为国内投资者不需要花精力关心这些高频变化，特朗普试图灵活 利用关税武器来制造谈判筹码，而中国商务部新闻发言人何亚东表示"如果美方真的想解决问题，就应该正视国际社会和国内各方理性声音， 彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施，通过平等对话，找到解决分歧的办法"。我们建议还是关注特朗普未来一年面临的两大约束，一是7~8月需 要推进债务上限谈判和减税法案通过，二是明年中期选举。尽管目前特朗普的民调支持率已经开始明显下降，但这属于每个美国总统百日新 政后正常的回落，而特朗普两次任期的民调本身就比其他美国总统偏低，目前 ...

中信证券 可控核聚变观点更新 20250326 摘要 Q&A 可控核聚变行业目前有哪些确定的趋势？ 可控核聚变行业目前呈现出几个确定的趋势。首先，政策端给予了显著支持， 许多核电央企部门成立了投资于可控核聚变方向的联合体。其次，今年（2025 年）的投资额同比去年（2024 年）有明显增加。此外，多个具体项目已经开始 实施，包括合肥和四川的项目，后续可能还有更多值得期待的项目。参与企业 也做了充分准备，包括磁约束线圈和真空装置等环节的一些上市公司。此外， • 可控核聚变逐渐进入公众视野，并可能逐步迈向商业化，二级市场对部分 项目短期投资强度可能存在高估，但整体项目的持续性和未来新项目拓展 则被低估。今年以联创光电为首的相关企业取得了较好的涨幅。 • 中美博弈背景下，美国计划在 2027 年实现点火，2028 年实现并网发电， 这将倒逼中国加大投入。可控核聚变需达到三重指标（温度、原子核密度 和约束时间）才能实现点火，并保证能量增益系数 Q 大于等于 1。 • 国内有三大重点项目：中核集团主导的合肥贝斯特项目（目标 2027 年建 成）、南昌混合堆星火一号项目（氘氚聚变+裂变堆），以及高温超导磁体 设备（联创光 ...