Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that in the first half of 2025, the company achieved significant revenue and profit growth, with a strong outlook for market share enhancement [5][7] - The company recorded a revenue of 14.875 billion RMB in 2025H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and a net profit of 2.718 billion RMB, up 44.1% year-on-year [7] - The company is expanding its domestic store network while optimizing overseas operations, particularly in Southeast Asia [7] Financial Performance - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023: 20.302 billion RMB, 2024: 24.829 billion RMB, 2025E: 30.443 billion RMB, 2026E: 36.691 billion RMB, 2027E: 42.410 billion RMB, with respective growth rates of 49.55%, 22.29%, 22.61%, 20.52%, and 15.59% [6] - The net profit forecasts are: 2023: 3.137 billion RMB, 2024: 4.436 billion RMB, 2025E: 5.425 billion RMB, 2026E: 6.586 billion RMB, 2027E: 7.670 billion RMB, with growth rates of 57.13%, 41.41%, 22.28%, 21.40%, and 16.46% respectively [6] - The company’s gross margin for 2025H1 was 31.64%, with a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [7] Market Expansion - As of 2025H1, the company had a total of 53,014 stores, with 52,996 being franchise stores, and a net increase of 6,697 stores in mainland China since the beginning of the year [7] - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand presence in the domestic market while strategically optimizing its operations in overseas markets like Indonesia and Vietnam [7] Profitability Metrics - The report indicates that the company's net profit margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 18.27% in 2025H1 [7] - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the upcoming years are 36.23 for 2023, 31.24 for 2024, 31.24 for 2025E, 25.73 for 2026E, and 22.09 for 2027E [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the ready-to-drink beverage market in China is growing rapidly, with a significant increase in market share expected for affordable ready-to-drink products in the future [1] - In 2023, the ready-to-drink beverage market size in China reached 517.5 billion yuan, accounting for 36.3% of the beverage market, a 15.7% increase from 2018 [1] - The market size for ready-to-drink beverages is projected to reach 1,163.4 billion yuan by 2028, with a market share of 49.2%, reflecting a growth of 12.9% from 2023 [1] Group 2 - The company ranked second in the ready-to-drink tea market, with a GMV of 19.2 billion yuan and a market share of 9.1%, operating 9,001 stores nationwide [1] - The company’s product development capabilities are a core competitive advantage, focusing on fruit tea, milk tea, and coffee, with regular new product launches [1] - The company has upgraded its product "Super A Cheese Grape" 11 times since its launch in June 2019, ensuring consistent taste by using different grape varieties seasonally [1] Group 3 - The company has established 22 warehousing bases nationwide, with approximately 76% of stores located within 150 kilometers of a warehouse, ensuring efficient logistics [2] - The average logistics cost for the company is less than 1% of the total GMV as of the end of 2023 [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.925 billion yuan, 2.288 billion yuan, and 2.635 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 30.19%, 18.87%, and 15.17% respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][13][5]. Core Insights - Guming is a leading affordable fresh tea beverage brand with significant advantages, having expanded from Zhejiang to over 200 cities across 17 provinces in China, with 9,914 stores by the end of 2024 [1][25]. - The company has a strong supply chain and unique channel strategies that have propelled it to become the second-largest brand in the industry, focusing on lower-tier cities to avoid intense competition [2][11]. - The tea beverage market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size exceeding 600 billion CNY by 2024, and Guming is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth [1][52]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Guming has been in the fresh tea beverage industry for over a decade, establishing a robust presence with a high average quarterly repurchase rate of 53% and a store operating profit margin of approximately 20% [1][25]. - The company operates primarily through a franchise model, which has facilitated rapid expansion and a strong brand presence in lower-tier cities [2][11]. Market Potential - The fresh beverage market in China is projected to reach over 1 trillion CNY by 2028, with the fresh tea segment being the largest [52][55]. - The market for fresh tea beverages is expected to grow at a CAGR of 19.2% from 2024 to 2028, particularly in lower-tier cities where Guming has focused its expansion efforts [55][60]. Supply Chain and Competitive Advantage - Guming's supply chain is a core competitive advantage, allowing for efficient operations and the ability to quickly respond to market demands [2][11]. - The company has implemented a regional density strategy, enhancing its market penetration and brand recognition in areas with multiple store locations [2][11]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.96 billion CNY, 2.36 billion CNY, and 2.76 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.82, 0.99, and 1.16 CNY [3][4][13]. - Guming's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with a forecasted revenue of 11.16 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a 27% growth rate [4][8]. Strategic Initiatives - Guming plans to increase its store count by 2,000 in 2025, focusing on provinces such as Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, and Guangxi [2][11]. - The introduction of coffee products is anticipated to contribute positively to store revenue, with an estimated 10% increase in sales per store [2][11].