石膏板短期承压，"两翼"继续发力 公司报告 | 半年报点评 北新建材（000786） 证券研究报告 公司上半年实现归母净利润 19.3 亿元，同比下滑 12.8% 公司发布半年报，上半年实现收入/归母净利润 135.6/19.3 亿元，同比 -0.3%/-12.8%，扣非归母净利润 18.9 亿元，同比-12.3%，其中 Q2 单季度实 现收入/归母净利润 73.1/10.9 亿元，同比-4.5%/-21.9%，扣非归母净利润 10.7 亿元，同比-21.5%。 轻质建材收入/利润同比下滑，"两翼"实现增长 公司上半年轻质建材板块实现收入 89.01 亿元，同比下滑 8.67%，其中石膏 板/龙骨分别实现收入 66.8/11.4 亿元，同比分别-8.57%/-10.72%，轻质建材 分部上半年实现净利润 16.43 亿元，同比下滑 17.3%，公司拟在浙江宁波投 资建设年产 8000 万平方米纸面石膏板及 2 万吨轻钢龙骨生产线项目，有望 进一步完善产能布局，增强在华东地区的竞争力，此外，泰山、龙牌加强 新品推广，通过新品溢价效应增厚利润。两翼方面，公司上半年防水建材/ 涂 料 建 材 板 块 分 别 实 现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, but certain segments like waterproof coatings and paints showed resilience and growth despite industry challenges [1][2]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 13.558 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, and a net profit of 1.93 billion yuan, down 12.8% [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue was 7.312 billion yuan, a decline of 4.5%, with net profit at 1.087 billion yuan, down 21.9% [1]. Segment Analysis - **Gypsum Board Business**: Revenue decreased by 8.57% to 6.677 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a slight decline in gross margin to 38.68%. Despite demand pressure, the company maintained pricing power due to high market share [2][3]. - **Keel Business**: Revenue fell by 10.72% to 1.137 billion yuan, but gross margin improved by 0.43 percentage points to 21.65%. There is significant potential for growth in the keel business due to low current matching rates [2]. - **Waterproof Business**: Revenue was approximately 2.49 billion yuan, growing by 6%, with net profit of 140 million yuan, also up 6%. The business showed resilience despite a downturn in new real estate starts [3]. - **Coating Business**: Revenue reached around 2.16 billion yuan, a significant increase of 44.4%, with net profit of 170 million yuan, up 31.8%. The integration of Jia Baoli has led to notable improvements in both revenue and profit [3]. Growth Outlook - The company is expected to strengthen its long-term growth logic through stable profitability and continued pricing power, even in a weak demand environment [3]. - There are opportunities for category expansion and accelerated mergers and acquisitions, particularly in light steel keels and panels, which can leverage existing sales channels [3]. - Projections for non-deductible net profit for 2025-2027 are estimated at 4.56 billion, 5.472 billion, and 6.567 billion yuan, respectively [3]. Investment Considerations - The company is not currently considering mergers and acquisitions, with expected earnings of 3.95 billion and 4.58 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, corresponding to PE ratios of 11.4 and 9.8 times [4]. - The valuation is at a historically low level, suggesting potential for future elasticity with the possibility of recovery in the economic cycle [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][6] Core Views - The company's revenue showed resilience with a total revenue of 13.558 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a slight decrease of 0.29% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.930 billion yuan, down 12.85% year-on-year [5][6] - The gypsum board business is under short-term pressure, while the paint business continues to maintain high growth, with paint revenue reaching 2.511 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.82% [5][6] - The company is accelerating its transformation from a traditional building materials manufacturer to a comprehensive service provider in consumer building materials, implementing a "one body, two wings, global layout" development strategy [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company's sales gross margin was 30.35%, and net profit margin was 14.56%, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [5] - The company's operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was 0.962 billion yuan, a decrease of 52.86% year-on-year, with accounts receivable at 6.116 billion yuan, an increase of 10.40% year-on-year [5] - The company has a total market capitalization of 45.1 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 43.1 billion yuan [2] Business Segment Performance - The gypsum board business generated revenue of 6.677 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, down 8.57% year-on-year, while the waterproof membrane business saw a slight increase of 0.63% to 1.720 billion yuan [5] - The company has established a leading position in the global gypsum board industry, with effective production capacity of 3.563 billion square meters as of the end of the first half of 2025 [5] - The waterproof building materials segment reported revenue of 2.494 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.99%, despite a slight decline in gross margin due to raw material price fluctuations [5] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast, expecting EPS of 2.24 yuan and 2.51 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.9 and 10.6 [6] - The international expansion is progressing, with production bases in Tanzania and Uzbekistan showing improved operational efficiency, and a gypsum board project in Thailand entering trial production [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 36.93 CNY based on a 15x valuation for 2025 [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company has a market share of nearly 70% in the gypsum board market, which has a size of approximately 150-200 billion CNY. The company aims to enhance the consumption attributes of gypsum boards, reduce costs, expand product categories, and accelerate internationalization [2][14]. - The company has adopted a "one body, two wings" strategy, focusing on waterproof materials and coatings, with significant revenue growth in both segments [3]. - The company has implemented a restricted stock incentive plan, projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of non-net profit attributable to shareholders of at least 14.22%, 16.12%, and 17.08% for 2025-2027 [4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Gypsum Board Consumption Attributes - The company has a gypsum board market share of 67.38%, with a production volume of 2.165 billion square meters in 2023 [14]. - The company is focused on cost reduction, with a projected unit cost of 3.71 CNY per square meter in 2024, down by 0.19 CNY from the previous year [52]. - The company is expanding its product categories, including light steel keels and powder mortar, and is investing in gypsum fiber boards for interior and partition walls [2][63]. Section 2: Waterproof and Coating Business Expansion - The waterproofing materials segment has reached a revenue scale among the top three in the industry, while the coatings segment is expanding through acquisitions, including a significant merger with Jiaboli [3]. - The company’s coating production capacity is expected to increase from 103,000 tons to over 1.3 million tons by the end of 2024 [3]. Section 3: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company forecasts revenues of 28.168 billion CNY, 30.126 billion CNY, and 32.317 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 9%, 7%, and 7% [4][8]. - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is 4.142 billion CNY, 4.449 billion CNY, and 4.813 billion CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 14%, 7%, and 8% [4][8].

Summary of Conference Call on Gypsum Board Industry Industry Overview - The gypsum board industry is experiencing intense price competition, with average sales in April and May down approximately 15% year-on-year. Major companies affected include Beixin, Taishan Longhai, Saint-Gobain, and Knauf, with some lesser-known brands seeing declines of up to 20% [1][2][3] - The price reduction space is limited, and further price cuts could severely compress profits for companies [2][3] Key Players and Strategies - Foreign companies like Knauf are expanding production capacity in China to enhance logistics efficiency and reduce costs. Their factories are typically located in first-tier or new first-tier cities such as Tianjin, Shandong, Shanghai, and Dongguan [1][6] - Knauf's sales and profits are expected to decline in 2025 due to a lag in price adjustments compared to competitors. State-owned enterprises tend to prefer Beixin products, which affects Knauf's competitiveness in large projects, although it maintains a strong presence in small owner, retail wholesale, and home decoration sectors [1][16] Market Dynamics - The demand for lightweight steel keel and gypsum board is gradually replacing traditional building materials, but market coverage remains a challenge. Companies are shifting focus to third- and fourth-tier cities as demand in first-tier cities saturates [1][7][8] - New gypsum board factories are primarily aimed at saving transportation costs and meeting market demand, despite a decrease in gypsum board prices [10][11] Logistics and Cost Challenges - The gypsum board industry is significantly impacted by logistics costs due to the heavy weight and large volume of the product. Transporting gypsum board over long distances can increase costs by 20% to 30% [12][13] - The need for specialized transportation and labor for gypsum board handling adds to the overall cost structure, making logistics a critical factor in profitability [12][13] Sales Performance and Future Outlook - Knauf's sales volume and profit have declined in 2025, with a projected growth target of only 5% for the year, down from an initial target of 13%. The company plans to reassess its annual budget in mid-2025 due to current market conditions [17][18] - The company will not engage in aggressive price wars to boost sales, focusing instead on improving service quality and operational efficiency to achieve growth [19] Regional Insights - Knauf has six factories across China, with plans for expansion based on capacity analysis, particularly in regions like Yunnan and Guizhou to meet local demand and reduce logistics costs [9][20] - The central region accounts for about 50% of Knauf's sales, while the southern region contributes approximately 60% of profits [20] Competitive Landscape - The overall market for gypsum board is seeing a shift in project and home decoration demand, with Knauf's project share at 40% and home decoration at 60%, compared to the market's 60% and 40% respectively [25] - Beixin's scale and aggressive pricing strategies pose a challenge to foreign brands, particularly in third- and fourth-tier cities where brand recognition is lower [31][32] Conclusion - The gypsum board industry is navigating a challenging landscape marked by price competition, logistics costs, and shifting demand patterns. Companies like Knauf are adapting their strategies to maintain competitiveness while focusing on service quality and operational efficiency rather than engaging in detrimental price wars.