证券研究报告 公司研究 点评报告 金蝶国际(0268.HK) 投资评级： 上次评级： 庞倩倩计算机行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522110006 邮 箱：pangqianqian@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 中报业绩亮眼。金蝶国际于 2025 年 8 月 11 日发布 2025 年中期报告， 2025 年上半年公司实现营收 31.92 亿元，同比增长 11.24%；实现归母 净利润-0.98 亿元，同比减亏约 55.1%；公司整体毛利率为 65.63%，同 比增加 2.38pct。销售费用率为 39.59%，同比减少 3.08pct，管理费用 率为 35.13%，同比减少 1.65pct。综合来看，公司收入持续扩张，盈利 质量不断改善，凸显其产品竞争力和降本控费效果。 云订阅数据持续上升，增长幅度与质量并重。金蝶持续深化"订阅优 先"战略，聚焦行业客户应用场景与功能诉求，持续优化产品性能与 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Outperform" rating with a target price of 19.41 HKD for 2025, reflecting a dynamic PS of 9x [4][10]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing robust revenue growth, with a projected revenue of 6.99 billion RMB for 2025, and a net profit attributable to shareholders expected to reach 0.09 billion RMB [4][10]. - The cloud transformation is entering a harvest phase, evidenced by a 11.2% year-on-year revenue increase to 3.19 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, and a significant narrowing of net profit loss by 55.1% [11][12]. - AI integration into SaaS products is progressing well, with AI contract values exceeding 0.15 billion RMB, indicating strong demand for AI applications in enterprise management [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 5.68 billion RMB in 2023, 6.26 billion RMB in 2024, 6.99 billion RMB in 2025, 7.93 billion RMB in 2026, and 9.15 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15.4% from 2023 to 2027 [3][4]. - Gross profit is expected to grow from 3.64 billion RMB in 2023 to 6.41 billion RMB in 2027, with a gross margin improvement from 65.07% in 2024 to 70% in 2027 [8]. - The company anticipates a return to profitability with net profit projections of 0.09 billion RMB in 2025, 0.30 billion RMB in 2026, and 0.56 billion RMB in 2027, marking a significant turnaround from a net loss of 0.21 billion RMB in 2023 [3][4]. Cloud Business Performance - Cloud service revenue reached 2.67 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, up 11.9% year-on-year, with cloud subscription revenue contributing significantly to total revenue [11][12]. - The annual recurring revenue (ARR) from cloud subscriptions is projected to be 3.73 billion RMB, reflecting an 18.5% year-on-year growth [11][12]. - The company has achieved a 24.7% increase in cloud subscription contractual liabilities, indicating strong future revenue visibility [11][12]. AI Business Development - The company has successfully integrated AI into its SaaS offerings, with AI contract values surpassing 0.15 billion RMB in the first half of 2025 [13]. - New AI products launched include Cangqiong AI Agent 2.0 and various intelligent assistants, which have attracted key clients such as Hisense and Tongwei [13].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 3.19 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, while the net loss attributable to shareholders was 97.74 million yuan, an improvement from a loss of 218 million yuan in the same period last year [1][2] Revenue and Profitability - The revenue performance met expectations, but profit was slightly below the most optimistic market forecasts due to a significant increase in management expenses, which are speculated to be a one-time impact related to a reduction in workforce from 12,149 to 11,043 employees [1] - The overall gross margin improved by 2.4 percentage points, indicating a clear trend of better operational quality [1] Cloud Subscription Growth - Cloud subscription revenue reached 1.68 billion yuan in H1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 22.1%, and accounted for 53% of total revenue [1] - The Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) for cloud subscriptions was 3.73 billion yuan, up 18.5% year-on-year, although the growth rate slightly declined quarter-on-quarter [1] - Contract liabilities amounted to 3.38 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.7%, with subscription revenue growth exceeding expectations [1] Major Client Developments - Subscription revenue from major clients exceeded expectations, with specific business lines reporting significant growth: - Cangqiong Xinghan generated 850 million yuan, up 34.3%, with cloud subscription revenue of 280 million yuan, up 41.1% - Xingkong achieved subscription revenue of 740 million yuan, up 19% - Xiaowei products generated 540 million yuan, up 24% [2] AI Product Outlook - The company disclosed that AI contract amounts exceeded 150 million yuan, with expectations for revenue growth to become more apparent in the second half of the year as AI products were launched in May [2] - The long-term growth of AI products is supported by the company's high barriers to entry and established client relationships, with significant contracts signed with major clients such as Hisense Group and China Minmetals [2] Financial Forecast Adjustments - The revenue growth assumptions for the years 2025-2027 for Cangqiong Xinghan were revised down from 40% to 30% for each year, leading to a downward adjustment in overall revenue forecasts [2] - The company now expects revenues of 7.08 billion, 8.12 billion, and 9.52 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 50 million, 290 million, and 530 million yuan for the same years [2] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on the commercialization progress of AI agents and the advantages of long-term customer resources [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][31] Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue of 3.192 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing an 11.2% year-on-year growth, driven primarily by cloud services [8][18] - The annual recurring revenue (ARR) from cloud subscriptions reached approximately 3.73 billion yuan, with an 18.5% year-on-year increase, indicating a stable growth trajectory despite macroeconomic pressures [9][31] - The company aims for AI revenue to account for 30% of total revenue by 2030, with a focus on integrating AI into its management software solutions [26][31] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a net loss of 98 million yuan, a significant reduction of 55% compared to the previous year, with a net loss margin of 3.1% [2][18] - Gross margin improved to 65.6%, with cloud subscription business gross margin reaching 96.2% [2][18] - Operating cash flow for H1 2025 was 18.22 million yuan, showing an 89% improvement year-on-year [9][36] Revenue Breakdown - Cloud service revenue accounted for 83.7% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 11.9% [8][17] - Large enterprise cloud business revenue grew by 41.1%, while medium and small enterprises saw growth rates of 19% and 23.8%, respectively [17][18] Cost Management - The company reduced its total operating expenses by 5%, with specific reductions in sales and R&D expenses [2][19] - Employee count decreased by 9%, leading to a 19.4% increase in revenue per employee [19][36] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 7.123 billion, 8.138 billion, and 9.382 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a slight downward revision [3][33] - Profitability is expected to improve, with net profit projections for 2025-2027 adjusted to 145 million, 400 million, and 633 million yuan, respectively [3][37]

Core Viewpoint - Kingdee International (0268.HK) reported a continued loss in the first half of 2025, with a loss of 97.738 million yuan, accumulating over 1.4 billion yuan in losses over the past five and a half years [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Kingdee International achieved revenue of 3.192 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, while the loss attributable to equity holders narrowed by 55.1% compared to the previous year [2][3]. - Cumulative losses over five and a half years reached 1.477 billion yuan [2]. Cost Structure - Research and development expenses were controlled at 777 million yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year, while sales expenses rose to 1.264 billion yuan, an increase of 3.18%, marking a historical high for the period [3]. - Administrative expenses increased by 39% to 346 million yuan due to personnel restructuring and severance payments [3]. Strategic Focus - The company has accelerated its AI transformation, launching several AI-native products in the first half of 2025, including the Cloud AI Agent platform 2.0 and various intelligent assistants [3]. - AI contract amounts exceeded 150 million yuan, with expectations that AI revenue could account for 30% of total revenue by 2030 [3]. Business Segments - The cloud service business remains the largest revenue source, contributing over 80% of total revenue, with a revenue of 2.673 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, growing approximately 11.9% year-on-year [5]. - However, the growth rate of cloud service revenue has been declining, with previous growth rates of 35.5%, 21.5%, and 17.2% from 2022 to 2024 [5]. Market Performance - In the large enterprise market, Kingdee's cloud services performed well, generating approximately 845 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [6]. - The mid-sized market showed weaker performance, with customer growth stagnating and a decline in new contracts signed [6]. - The small enterprise segment also faced challenges, with renewal rates below industry standards despite customer growth [6]. International Expansion - Kingdee is actively expanding its overseas business, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, but revenue from international operations remains low at 41.61 million yuan, accounting for only 1.32% of total revenue [7]. - The company has faced challenges in penetrating the high-end enterprise market dominated by international giants like SAP and Oracle [7]. Shareholder Sentiment - Recent shareholder reductions indicate a lack of confidence in the company's ability to turn around its financial performance, with stock prices significantly down from historical highs [8].

Core Insights - The combination of AI and SaaS is becoming a key driver for the transformation of enterprise management models amid macroeconomic uncertainty and technological change [1] - Kingdee International reported resilient performance in the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 3.192 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, and cloud subscription revenue growing by 22.1% to 1.684 billion yuan, surpassing 50% of total revenue for the first time [1][2] - The company disclosed that its AI contract signing amount has exceeded 150 million yuan and set a strategic goal for AI revenue to account for 30% of total revenue by 2030 [1][4] Financial Performance - Kingdee's cloud business has achieved a compound annual growth rate of 47.3% over the past decade, with cloud service revenue accounting for 83.7% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [2] - The gross margin improved to 65.6%, with a 2.4 percentage point increase year-on-year, driven by the growth of high-margin cloud subscription revenue [2] - Operating cash flow showed significant improvement, narrowing to -18 million yuan from -166 million yuan in the same period last year, with management projecting positive cash flow exceeding 1 billion yuan for the full year 2025 [2] AI Commercialization - Kingdee's AI commercialization began to show results in the first half of 2025, with the launch of the Cangqiong AI Agent platform 2.0 and various native intelligent agents across different enterprise sizes [3][4] - The company reported a 34.3% year-on-year revenue growth in large enterprises, with cloud subscription revenue increasing by 41.1% and a net dollar retention rate (NDR) of 108% [3] - AI applications are being integrated into various business processes, enhancing productivity and decision-making efficiency across sectors [9] Competitive Advantages - Kingdee's core competitive advantages include deep industry know-how, data security, and reliable hosting, which are difficult for generic AI models to replicate [6][7] - The company has built a unique growth flywheel that leverages SaaS applications to accumulate vast amounts of business data, which in turn empowers AI training and enhances SaaS product value [7] International Expansion - Kingdee is pursuing a pragmatic internationalization strategy, initially following Chinese enterprises abroad and establishing localized teams in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [9] - The company has set up overseas offices in countries like Malaysia, Singapore, and Qatar, adapting products to 14 languages and various national regulations [9] - Collaborations with international financial institutions in smart treasury services and cross-border payments are expected to enhance competitive differentiation in overseas markets [9] Future Outlook - Kingdee aims for AI revenue to reach 30% of total revenue by 2030, with cloud subscription and AI revenue combined to account for 80%-90% of total revenue, and per capita revenue exceeding 1 million yuan [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kingdee International (00268) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.19 billion RMB for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.2%. The net loss attributable to shareholders was 97.74 million RMB, an improvement from a loss of 218 million RMB in the same period last year. Revenue met expectations, while profit performance was slightly below the most optimistic market forecasts due to increased management expenses, which are speculated to be one-time impacts [4] - Cloud subscription revenue reached 1.68 billion RMB in H1 2025, up 22.1% year-on-year, accounting for 53% of total revenue. The Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) grew to 3.73 billion RMB, an 18.5% increase year-on-year. Contract liabilities rose to 3.38 billion RMB, up 24.7% year-on-year, indicating strong growth in subscription revenue [6] - The company anticipates accelerated growth in AI contracts, with amounts exceeding 150 million RMB. The AI revenue is expected to gradually reflect in the second half of the year as the sales window for AI products was relatively short in the first half [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The projected financials for Kingdee International are as follows: - Revenue (in million RMB): 5,679 in 2023, 6,256 in 2024, 7,078 in 2025E, 8,121 in 2026E, and 9,517 in 2027E, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.7%, 10.2%, 13.1%, 14.7%, and 17.2% respectively [5] - Net profit (in million RMB): -210 in 2023, -142 in 2024, 47 in 2025E, 288 in 2026E, and 527 in 2027E, with significant growth expected in the later years [7] - The report adjusts the revenue growth assumptions for the company's key business lines from 40% to 30% for the years 2025-2027, leading to a revised revenue forecast of 7.08 billion RMB for 2025, down from a previous estimate of 7.29 billion RMB [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a total revenue of 3.19 billion RMB for H1 2025, reflecting an 11.2% year-on-year growth, with cloud service revenue growing by 11.9% to 2.67 billion RMB [4] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross profit of 2.095 billion RMB, a 15.4% increase year-on-year, resulting in a gross margin of 65.6%, which is above the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 65.2% [4] - The net loss attributable to shareholders was approximately 97.74 million RMB, which was worse than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of a loss of 72.53 million RMB, primarily due to a 39% increase in management expenses [4] - The company had 11,043 employees as of H1 2025, down from 12,149 at the end of 2024 [4] Group 2: Subscription and Customer Growth - The company restructured its revenue segments to focus on cloud subscription revenue, which reached 1.684 billion RMB in H1 2025, a 22.1% year-on-year increase, accounting for 52.8% of total revenue [5] - The Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) from cloud subscriptions grew by 18.5% to 3.73 billion RMB, with contract liabilities increasing by 24.7% to 3.38 billion RMB [5] - The company signed 304 new customers, including major firms like Geely Holding and Moutai Technology, contributing to a revenue of 845 million RMB from its flagship products [5] Group 3: AI Commercialization Progress - The company disclosed that the AI contract amount exceeded 150 million RMB in H1 2025, with the launch of several AI-native products [6] - Active users of the AI assistant for small and micro enterprises reached 170,000, significantly improving accounting efficiency by approximately 80% and invoicing efficiency by about 40% [6] - Key clients for AI solutions include Hisense Group and China CNR Corporation, indicating strong market interest and adoption [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][11]. Core Insights - The company has shown good growth in its cloud business and accelerated the implementation of AI applications. The revenue for the first half of the year reached 3.192 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, with a significant reduction in net loss from 218 million yuan to 98 million yuan [5][6]. - The company continues to push its "subscription-first" strategy, achieving a cloud subscription revenue of 1.684 billion yuan, which is a 22.1% increase year-on-year. The annual recurring revenue (ARR) for cloud subscriptions reached 3.73 billion yuan, up 18.5% [6][5]. - The company is also advancing its "AI-first" strategy, launching several AI products and achieving over 150 million yuan in AI contract amounts during the reporting period [6][5]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company's revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 7.078 billion yuan, 8.004 billion yuan, and 9.001 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 1.18 billion yuan, 3.36 billion yuan, and 6.35 billion yuan [6][4]. - The price-to-sales (P/S) ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 7.3, 6.4, and 5.7 respectively [6][4]. - The company is expected to achieve a gross margin of 66.0% in 2025, increasing to 68.0% by 2027 [9][8]. Operational Performance - The company has improved its operational metrics, with a gross margin of 65.63% in the latest reporting period, up from 63.25% year-on-year [6][5]. - The net profit margin is projected to turn positive by 2025, with a forecast of 1.7% [9][8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from -1.7% in 2024 to 7.2% by 2027 [9][8].

Core Viewpoint - The AI era is accelerating the evolution of the domestic software industry, with Kingdee International reporting a revenue increase and narrowing losses, indicating a positive outlook for profitability driven by cloud subscription and AI efficiency improvements [2][3]. Financial Performance - Kingdee International achieved a revenue of approximately 3.192 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of about 11.2% [2]. - The company reported a loss attributable to equity holders of approximately 98 million RMB, a year-on-year reduction of about 55.1% [2]. - Cloud subscription revenue reached approximately 1.684 billion RMB, growing by about 22.1% year-on-year [3]. - The gross margin improved by 2.4 percentage points to approximately 65.6%, primarily due to the increased proportion of cloud subscription revenue [3]. Business Model Evolution - Kingdee has transitioned to a subscription-based cloud service model, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) from cloud subscriptions growing by 18.5% to 3.73 billion RMB [3]. - The company aims to increase the proportion of cloud subscription business, delegating implementation tasks to third-party partners to enhance efficiency and flexibility [3]. - The gross margin for cloud subscriptions reached 96.2%, with expectations for further improvement as IT technology advances [3]. AI and Product Development - Kingdee launched several AI-native products, including the Cangqiong AI Agent platform 2.0, and is focusing on multi-agent collaboration for large enterprises [4][5]. - The company is addressing the high internal management requirements of large enterprises by offering customizable AI solutions [5]. - Kingdee emphasizes the importance of data security and reliable business data management in advancing AI applications [7]. Market Trends and Challenges - The year is recognized as the "Agent Year," with various vendors entering the market, but challenges such as renewal willingness and potential product homogenization are emerging [6]. - Kingdee is strategically selecting AI products based on high-frequency demand and collaboration with enterprises for co-creation [7]. - The company identifies data quality, technical talent shortages, and ecosystem development as key challenges in implementing AI solutions [8]. International Expansion - Kingdee is actively investing in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, with plans for product localization [9]. - The company has already released product packages for 14 countries and regions, with potential expansion into Africa, Europe, and Japan in the future [9].