民生证券发布研报称，对降息预期需继续保持观察的态度。尽管不排除四季度至明年初美联储连续降息的可能(出现明显的失业率等上行信号)，但当前市 场对降息的押注貌似有些过于激进，忽视了潜在波动风险。即便美联储内部官员分歧犹存，但市场定价却呈现罕见的"一致性乐观"。 这也意味着，一旦出现任何的反向信号(通胀快速上行和非农反向修正等)导致预期纠偏，市场的波动将再次放大：美债利率反弹，对降息相对敏感的美股 板块(成长股和周期股)被波及，金融属性较强的金属上涨速度放缓(金银铜)。近期鲍威尔的表态便颇具深意——强调"利率仍具适度限制性"、"股票估值偏 高"，或正是有意为过热的乐观预期降温。 民生证券主要观点如下： 7月以来非农的剧烈下滑持续牵动美联储与市场的神经。尽管失业率、薪资等其他就业核心指标未显著恶化，但没有分歧的是，新增非农的持续走弱是迫 使美联储重新审视就业风险、在九月进行"风控型降息"的"罪魁祸首"。 但我们认为，联储降息节奏可能比市场预期的线性降息路径要曲折。我们在前期报告中持续提示，在四季度潜在通胀风险将成为连续宽松政策的"拦路 虎"。 在这篇报告中，我们将聚焦另一关键变量——就业，其是否存在向上修正的可能，从 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. employment report is expected to show a moderate recovery in the labor market, but this may not significantly alter the Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Employment Growth Expectations - Bank of America predicts that the U.S. non-farm payrolls for August will increase by 90,000, surpassing July's 73,000 and the market consensus of 75,000 [1] - The report highlights that the four-week average of initial jobless claims remains at a moderate level, while continuing claims have decreased, supporting the view of a slight acceleration in employment growth [1] Group 2: Risks of Data Revision - There is a significant risk of downward revision for July's non-farm payrolls, which could indicate more persistent labor market weakness than previously expected [2] - The initial response rate for the July survey was only 57.6%, much lower than the 68.4% in May and 59.5% in June, raising concerns about the reliability of the data [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Threshold - The threshold for preventing a rate cut has been raised, with the need for strong data to justify maintaining interest rates [3] - A report that could lead the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged would require an unemployment rate of 4.2% or lower, job growth exceeding 70,000, and minimal revisions to July's data [3] Group 4: Sector-Specific Employment Trends - The employment market in August is expected to show structural differentiation, with some sectors experiencing growth while others remain weak [5] - Government employment is projected to increase by 5,000 jobs in August after a decrease of 10,000 in July, and the tourism and hospitality sectors are expected to see a slight recovery [5][6] - However, professional and business services may continue to face hiring challenges due to AI adoption and a low liquidity labor market, while manufacturing employment is expected to remain weak due to labor supply shocks and tariff uncertainties [6] Group 5: Wage and Hour Stability - Bank of America anticipates that average hourly earnings will grow by 0.3% month-over-month in August, with average weekly hours remaining stable at 34.3 hours [6]

Group 1: Employment Data Revision Insights - The July non-farm payroll report revised the employment data for May and June down by 258,000, raising concerns about the accuracy of U.S. employment data[4] - Since 1979, the probability of downward revisions in non-farm payrolls has increased during economic slowdowns, with a current downward revision probability of 72.4% since 2023[10] - The average downward revision magnitude has widened to -12.8% in 2023, compared to a historical average of -8.4%[10] Group 2: Factors Contributing to Data Volatility - Four main factors have contributed to increased volatility in U.S. employment data post-pandemic: decreased response rates in non-farm surveys, increased immigration complicating data collection, seasonal disruptions, and larger errors in the Birth-Death Model[6] - The response rate for non-farm surveys has dropped from 59% pre-pandemic to 42.9% in May 2025, indicating a significant reduction in sample size[19] - The Birth-Death Model has led to an estimated overestimation of employment levels by approximately 440,000 jobs due to structural changes in new business formations[21] Group 3: Upcoming Employment Data Revisions - Attention is drawn to the upcoming benchmark revision of non-farm employment data scheduled for September 9, 2025, which may lead to further downward adjustments[7] - The QCEW data, which covers over 95% of employment, is expected to provide a more accurate reflection of employment levels compared to the non-farm payrolls, which cover only about one-third[44] - Historical trends suggest that the upcoming benchmark revision may result in a downward adjustment similar to the previous year's initial revision of 818,000 jobs[52]

Core Insights - The recent employment data signals a potential weakening in the U.S. labor market, contrary to the prevailing perception of strength [1][3] - Goldman Sachs has revised down the non-farm employment numbers for May and June by a total of 258,000, marking the largest two-month adjustment since 1968 [1][3] - A significant downward revision of 550,000 to 950,000 is anticipated in the upcoming annual benchmark revision, which could reshape market views on labor market strength [1][4] Employment Data Adjustments - The monthly adjustment of 258,000 alters the market's assessment of employment growth for May and June, revealing cracks in the narrative of continuous job expansion [3][4] - The scale of the upcoming benchmark revision is expected to be unprecedented, potentially ten times larger than the previous adjustment of 50,000 in January 2023 [4] Diverging Indicators - Other employment-related indicators, such as the NFIB small business survey, JOLTS job openings data, and the ECI employment cost index, are showing signs of fatigue, indicating a slowdown in hiring and job demand [5] - This inconsistency in data is raising concerns in the market regarding the robustness of the labor market [5] Implications for Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve has previously relied on the narrative of a strong labor market to justify maintaining high interest rates; however, if the downward revisions are confirmed, it may necessitate a reassessment of economic resilience [5][6] - Current market expectations suggest a high probability (over 90%) that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates in September, which could accelerate if the labor market is found to be overestimated [6] Economic Outlook - The lagging effects of consecutive interest rate hikes over the past two years may be starting to manifest in the labor market, potentially leading to more dovish sentiments [7] - The downward revision of non-farm data challenges market consensus and could exert pressure on expectations for a soft landing of the U.S. economy, adding complexity to future Federal Reserve policy decisions [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will revise April's non-farm payroll data due to minor discrepancies, but this revision will not affect key labor market indicators such as the unemployment rate [1] Group 1 - The BLS announced that it will correct the April non-farm payroll data when releasing May's data on Friday [1] - The revision is attributed to slight errors in weights related to the redesigned Current Population Survey (CPS) sample [1] - Key labor market indicators, including the unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment-population ratio, remain unaffected by this revision [1] Group 2 - The BLS typically revises the non-farm payroll data for the previous two months, and the extent of these revisions is of significant interest to the market [1]