【 】 国泰海通证券 证券研究报告 2026年乘用车: 以高端、出海为矛破局 2026/ 02/28 行业评级: 增持 姓名：刘一鸣 (首席分析师) 邮箱：liuyiming@gtht.com 电话:15216799596 证书编号: S0880525040050 姓名:张觉尹 (分析师) 电话：19945659915 姓名： 潘若婵 (分析师) 邮箱: zhangjueyin@gtht.com 邮箱: panruochan@gtht.com 一电话:17278286860 证书编号：S0880525040057 证书编号：S0880525110006 01 02 03 04 2 2025年乘用车市场分析 请参阅附注免责声明 3 / 总量： 2025年乘用车内需与出口稳健增长 01 2025年，国内乘用车批发销量达2379.7万辆，同比+6%，在政策支持与消费复苏驱动下保持韧性增长。 2025年，中国实现乘用车出口573.1万辆，同比+21%，受益于自主品牌加速海外市场扩张与国产新能源车竞争力提升。 图: 乘用车国内批发销量（万辆） 300 238 240 227 250 202 201 198 172 22 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the journey of Leap Motor, which has evolved from being labeled as an "outsider" in the automotive industry to becoming a leading player among China's new energy vehicle manufacturers over the past decade [2][30]. Group 1: Company Growth and Achievements - Leap Motor has delivered over 1.2 million vehicles to date, with an expected sales volume of nearly 600,000 units in 2025, maintaining its position as the top new energy vehicle brand in China [5][32]. - The company has achieved consecutive quarterly profits, indicating a positive operational trajectory [5][32]. - Leap Motor's founder, Zhu Jiangming, emphasized that the company has "found the feeling of car manufacturing" after ten years of experience [5][32]. Group 2: Research and Development - Leap Motor's defining characteristic is its commitment to "full self-research," with 65% of the vehicle's cost attributed to self-developed components [8][35]. - The company maintains a high proportion of R&D personnel, with 80% currently involved in research, reflecting its focus on technological innovation [35]. - Leap Motor has developed several proprietary technologies, including the first automotive-grade intelligent driving chip and integrated battery chassis technology [9][35]. Group 3: Market Strategy - The company aims to make advanced technology accessible to a broader audience, offering high-end features at competitive prices [10][36]. - Leap Motor's product lineup includes four major series, covering a wide range of vehicle classes and power options, which has resonated well with consumers [12][38]. - The company has successfully penetrated the market under 300,000 yuan, with its C series achieving significant sales [12][38]. Group 4: International Expansion - Leap Motor is projected to sell 60,000 units overseas in 2025, positioning itself as a leader in international sales among new energy vehicle brands [13][39]. - The strategic partnership with Stellantis has facilitated rapid international market entry, leveraging Stellantis' global distribution and service networks [15][41]. - The company has established a presence in 35 countries and regions, with over 800 sales and service outlets, primarily in Europe [15][41]. Group 5: Future Goals - Leap Motor aims to become a world-class automotive company with an annual sales target of 4 million vehicles, setting 2026 as the year to achieve 1 million units sold [21][47]. - The company plans to focus on five key areas: technological innovation, product innovation, ecosystem building, industrial clustering, and marketing management [21][47]. - Leap Motor intends to hold annual technology days to showcase its innovations and continue expanding its product lines [23][49].

Core Insights - Leapmotor aims to achieve an annual sales target of 1 million vehicles by 2026 and reach 4 million vehicles in the next decade, positioning itself as a world-class automaker [3][4][7] - The company is transitioning from being a "cost-performance representative" to a "world-class automaker" through high-end product offerings and technological advancements [3][7] Product Strategy - The D series, including the flagship MPV D99, is designed to penetrate the high-end market, with a price range of 300,000 RMB, offering both extended range and pure electric options [3][4] - Leapmotor adheres to a "cost-based pricing" principle, ensuring that even with higher-end models, the perceived quality and value can compete with vehicles priced between 500,000 and 1 million RMB [3][4] Production Capacity - The company has prepared a battery supply redundancy of 1.2 to 1.3 times to meet the demand for 1 million vehicles, with a cumulative delivery of over 1.2 million vehicles to date [4][6] - Leapmotor collaborates with leading suppliers like CATL and AVIC Lithium Battery, and plans to start production at its joint battery factory by mid-2026 [3][4] Technological Advancements - Leapmotor is shifting from a following strategy to a leading position in the autonomous driving sector, focusing on L3-level applications and aiming to catch up with industry leaders [5][6] - The company has set a three-year return on investment criterion for new technologies, ensuring that only those that provide real user value will receive significant investment [5][6] Market Positioning - Leapmotor is enhancing its channel and service systems to align with its high-end transformation and sales goals, emphasizing user experience as a core aspect of luxury [6][7] - The company faces challenges in reshaping user perceptions and establishing brand value that justifies higher pricing in the luxury MPV market [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impressive performance of Leap Motor, a new car manufacturer, in the electric vehicle industry, achieving significant sales growth and profitability while maintaining a low-profile strategy and focusing on cost-effective innovation [2][4][5]. Group 1: Sales Performance - From January to November 2025, Leap Motor delivered a total of 536,000 vehicles, ranking fifth among brands, following BYD, Geely Galaxy, Wuling, and Tesla [2]. - Monthly delivery volumes have shown consistent growth, with November 2025 reaching 70,327 units, resulting in a year-to-date increase of 92% [3][4]. - The sales of various models have remained balanced, with most models expected to maintain year-on-year growth in 2025, except for the C01 model [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Leap Motor achieved a net profit in the first half of 2025 and continued to report quarterly profits in the third quarter, indicating a strong correlation between increased sales and rising gross and net profits [4]. - The company has maintained a low marketing expenditure compared to competitors, focusing on a "quietly making money" approach [4]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - The founder, Zhu Jiangming, attributes the company's success to two main strategies: a "low-price, high-spec" market competition strategy and technological innovation through comprehensive self-research [4][5]. - Leap Motor's operational certainty stems from strategic choices made a decade ago, allowing the company to create a cost-effective, competitive pricing model that drives high sales volume [5]. Group 4: Innovation and Technology - Leap Motor emphasizes "integrated innovation," focusing on optimizing existing technologies rather than creating entirely new inventions, which allows for cost efficiency [29][30]. - The company has successfully integrated various components, reducing the number of control modules in vehicles, which enhances efficiency and lowers costs [29][30]. Group 5: Market Positioning - Leap Motor aims to target the mass market rather than pursuing a niche, high-end brand strategy, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards more affordable options [8][78]. - The founder compares Leap Motor to Uniqlo, emphasizing a focus on quality and affordability while planning to introduce higher-end products without reaching luxury price points [80][82]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Leap Motor is targeting a sales goal of 1 million vehicles by 2026, with plans to launch four new models by mid-2026, contributing to an expected increase of 10% to 20% in sales from existing models [93].

Core Insights - The competition landscape for China's new energy vehicle market is becoming clearer as various automakers disclose their sales data for November 2025, with a focus on efficiency and technological innovation reshaping the industry dynamics [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Hongmeng Zhixing and Leap Motor both surpassed 70,000 units in deliveries, showcasing over 75% year-on-year growth, significantly widening the gap with traditional leading brands [3] - Hongmeng Zhixing achieved a record delivery of 81,864 vehicles in November, marking a 90% increase year-on-year, with the Aion brand being the main contributor [5] - Leap Motor delivered 70,327 vehicles, maintaining its position as the single brand champion in the new energy vehicle sector, with a 75% year-on-year increase [7] - Xiaomi Auto delivered over 40,000 vehicles, achieving a 100% year-on-year growth, and has exceeded its annual target of 350,000 vehicles [7] - Changan Qiyuan reported 46,909 vehicles delivered, with a 31% year-on-year increase, driven by strong product positioning [9] - NIO delivered 36,275 vehicles, reflecting a 76.3% year-on-year increase, with the ES8 model being a key contributor [10] - Ideal Auto's deliveries were 33,181 vehicles, showing a 31.92% year-on-year decline, attributed to market competition and product transition [12] - Deep Blue Auto delivered 33,060 vehicles, maintaining a steady performance despite market pressures [12] - Zeekr brand achieved 28,843 vehicles delivered, benefiting from improved production efficiency [13] - Lantu Auto reached a new high with 20,005 vehicles delivered, supported by product innovation and manufacturing capabilities [14] - Avita and Zhiji both set new sales records, with 14,057 and 13,577 vehicles delivered respectively, indicating their emergence as stable mainstream brands [16] Group 2: Market Trends and Outlook - The new energy vehicle market is expected to continue its growth in December 2025, driven by seasonal consumption peaks, tax incentives, and promotional activities from automakers [16] - The performance of different brand tiers is anticipated to show significant differentiation, influenced by the delivery rhythm of new models and promotional efforts [16]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong performance in Q3 2025, with significant revenue growth and a return to profitability, driven by increased vehicle sales and improved operational efficiency [1][2]. Performance Review - Q3 2025 revenue reached 19.45 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 97.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36.7% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was 150 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses, although it decreased by 8% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - Cumulative net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 180 million yuan [1]. Development Trends - Multiple vehicle models contributed to sustained high sales growth, with Q3 2025 sales volume at 174,000 units, up 102% year-on-year and 30% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The C series and B series saw sales increase to 98,000 units and 61,000 units respectively, with October sales surpassing 70,000 units for the first time [1]. - The T series small car's sales proportion decreased, leading to a 5.4% increase in average revenue per vehicle to 112,000 yuan [1]. - The D19 large six-seater model is expected to further enhance the product matrix and growth potential [1]. Profitability and Cash Flow - Q3 2025 gross margin improved to 14.5%, up 6.4% year-on-year and 0.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, benefiting from economies of scale, cost control, and product structure optimization [1]. - The combined selling, general, and administrative expenses decreased by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year to 14.3%, reflecting effective management [1]. - Operating cash flow for Q3 2025 reached 4.88 billion yuan, indicating ongoing improvement in cash flow performance [1]. Global Strategy and Market Expansion - The company is advancing its globalization strategy, with a strong new vehicle cycle and the launch of the Lafa5 sports sedan and D19 flagship SUV [2]. - In Q3 2025, the company exported 17,000 units, with total exports for the first three quarters reaching 38,000 units [2]. - By the end of September, the company established over 700 sales and service outlets in international markets, enhancing its competitive edge in the new energy passenger vehicle sector [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 remains unchanged at 860 million yuan and 4.89 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to a 14.4 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 [2]. - The target price has been adjusted down by 12.6% to 78.00 HKD, reflecting a 20.5 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, with a potential upside of 42.3% from the current stock price [2].

Core Viewpoint - Leap Motor's recent share purchases by major shareholders indicate confidence in the company's fundamentals and long-term investment value, especially during challenging times for performance or stock price [2][3]. Group 1: Shareholder Activity - Leap Motor's Chairman and CEO Zhu Jiangming, along with shareholder Fu Liqian, purchased a total of 3.2435 million H-shares at an average price of HKD 63.19 per share, amounting to approximately HKD 205 million [2]. - Zhu Jiangming and Fu Liqian have committed not to transfer or reduce their holdings for the next ten years, demonstrating long-term confidence in the company [3]. - Since August 2024, Zhu Jiangming and Fu Liqian have collectively increased their holdings by approximately HKD 850 million [3]. Group 2: Operational Performance - In September, Leap Motor achieved a delivery volume of 66,700 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of over 97%, setting a record for monthly deliveries among new car manufacturers [4]. - For the first nine months of 2025, Leap Motor's cumulative deliveries reached 396,000 vehicles, a year-on-year growth of 129%, achieving 79.1% of its annual target [4]. - Leap Motor's product line covers four major series (A to D), focusing on the mainstream family car market priced between RMB 100,000 and RMB 250,000 [4]. Group 3: Product Development - The launch of the D series models is expected to broaden Leap Motor's product range and potentially enhance profitability, with the D19 model anticipated to improve gross margins [5]. - Leap Motor's senior vice president indicated that combined sales of the A and D series could reach 30,000 units per month, contributing to the company's goal of achieving annual sales of one million vehicles [5].

Core Viewpoint - Recent share purchases by major shareholders of Leap Motor reflect confidence in the company's fundamentals and long-term investment value during a period of market pressure [1][2]. Group 1: Shareholder Activity - Leap Motor's chairman and CEO, Zhu Jiangming, along with shareholder Fu Liqian, purchased a total of 3.2435 million H-shares at an average price of approximately HKD 63.19 per share, amounting to about HKD 205 million [1]. - Zhu Jiangming and Fu Liqian have cumulatively invested approximately HKD 850 million in Leap Motor over the past 14 months [2]. - The latest share purchase announcement indicates that Zhu Jiangming and Fu Liqian now hold a combined total of 206.9 million H-shares and 128.5 million domestic shares, representing 23.59% of the company's total issued shares [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - Leap Motor achieved a delivery volume of 66,700 vehicles in September, marking a year-on-year increase of over 97%, and has maintained a month-on-month growth for nine consecutive months [3]. - In the first nine months of 2025, Leap Motor delivered a total of 396,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 129%, achieving 79.1% of its annual target [3]. - The company has expanded its product line to cover four major series (A to D), focusing on the mainstream family car market priced between 100,000 to 250,000 yuan [3]. Group 3: Product Development - The launch of the D series, including the flagship D19 model, signifies a new phase in Leap Motor's technology and product layout, potentially enhancing profitability [3][4]. - The D series is expected to contribute significantly to sales, with projections suggesting that combined sales of the A and D series could reach 30,000 units per month [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Leap Motor is transitioning from a budget-friendly brand to a higher-end market with the launch of its flagship D19 model, aiming to offer luxury at an accessible price point of around 300,000 yuan [2][3]. Product Development - The D19 is a full-size six-seat SUV with dimensions exceeding 5.2 meters in length, nearly 2 meters in width, and over 3.1 meters in wheelbase, priced significantly higher than previous models [2]. - Leap Motor's product line includes T, B, C, and D series, with the D series positioned as the highest tier [2]. Sales Performance - Leap Motor has achieved monthly sales exceeding 50,000 units recently, with September sales surpassing 60,000 units, making it the top new energy vehicle brand in terms of sales [2]. - Cumulative sales from January to September reached 395,500 units, indicating strong market demand [2]. R&D and Cost Structure - The company emphasizes its robust R&D capabilities, claiming that 65% of the D platform's vehicle costs are self-researched and manufactured, which contributes to cost savings [3]. - Leap Motor's gross margin has improved, reaching 14.1%, with expectations to turn profitable by mid-2025 due to increased sales volume and cost optimization [3]. Technology and Features - The D platform boasts advanced technologies, including over 500 kilometers of electric range, a high-voltage system, and cutting-edge driving assistance features, positioning it competitively in the 300,000 yuan market [4]. Market Strategy and Partnerships - Leap Motor plans to expand the D series to include various vehicle types such as SUVs, MPVs, and sedans, targeting the 300,000 yuan market segment [5]. - Strategic partnerships with Stellantis and FAW Group have been established to enhance international market presence and collaborative development [5]. Competitive Landscape - The D19 will compete with other six-seat SUVs in the 300,000 yuan segment, including models from Li Auto, Aito, and XPeng, indicating a highly competitive environment [5]. - Leap Motor is working on building a premium brand image, recently engaging a celebrity spokesperson to enhance its market presence [5]. Current Development Stage - The company is experiencing a phase of rising sales and improving operational performance, which is crucial for successfully launching the D series [6].

Core Viewpoint - Leap Motor is set to achieve its annual sales target of 500,000 units ahead of schedule this year, driven by its commitment to maintaining a cost-effective pricing strategy while entering the high-end market with its new D platform and D19 model [2][4][6]. Group 1: D Platform and Market Positioning - The D platform represents Leap Motor's entry into a new market segment, aiming to compete with leading players while adhering to its principle of "good but not expensive" [2][4]. - Leap Motor emphasizes that the D19 is not positioned as a luxury vehicle but rather as a high-spec model with flagship features, maintaining its core value proposition [5][18]. - The company plans to introduce 2-3 flagship models from the D series by 2026, alongside 2 new models from the A series [4][7]. Group 2: Sales and Growth Expectations - Leap Motor is optimistic about its Q4 performance, with orders meeting expectations, and anticipates reaching its sales target of 500,000 units ahead of schedule [6][8]. - The company has a strategic plan for the next five years, aiming for significant growth and will announce its next sales target upon achieving the current one [26]. Group 3: Cost Control and Innovation - Leap Motor's unique approach involves setting prices based on costs rather than pursuing high margins, which is a departure from typical high-end market strategies [3][5]. - The company focuses on in-house research and development, which allows it to maintain lower costs and higher efficiency in product development [4][10]. - Innovations such as the integrated electric drive and generator system contribute to cost savings and improved performance [10][22]. Group 4: Brand Strategy and Marketing - Leap Motor's brand positioning remains consistent, with the D series not representing a shift to a luxury brand but rather an enhancement of its existing product lines [5][18]. - The decision to engage a celebrity spokesperson is aimed at enhancing brand visibility and resonance with consumers, aligning with the launch of the D series [14][35]. Group 5: Future Product Development - The D19 model features advanced technology such as a dual-vector electric drive system, which enhances performance and control, particularly in challenging driving conditions [15][16]. - Leap Motor is committed to maintaining a high standard of quality and performance across all its models, leveraging its technological capabilities to meet consumer demands [20][32]. Group 6: Financial Outlook and Profitability - The company aims to achieve profitability through scale rather than high margins, with expectations for improved financial performance in the latter half of the year [24]. - Leap Motor's strategy includes maintaining reasonable profit margins across all platforms, ensuring that high-end models do not lead to inflated pricing [29].