证券研究报告 零跑汽车 (9863 HK) 港股通 销量连创新高，首次半年度盈利 2025 年 8 月 21 日│中国香港 乘用车 公司发布半年报，25H1 营收 242.50 亿元（yoy+174.15%），归母净利 0.33 亿元（同比转正），扣非净利-0.58 亿元（yoy-97.47%）；Q2 营收 142.30 亿元（yoy+165.48%、qoq+42.01%），归母净利+1.63 亿元（24Q2 和 25Q1 分别为-12.00/-1.30 亿）。考虑到公司销量强力持续向上&看好 ABCD 四大 平台车型竞争力&海外市场拓展加速&战略合作和零部件业务等增厚业绩， 我们预计公司 25-27 年营收将保持高速增长并逐步释放盈利弹性，我们本次 上调公司盈利预测并上调目标价。维持买入评级。 收入：销量连创新高&结构优化，B/C 平台销量占比提升 1）25Q2 公司实现销量 13.4 万辆，同环比+152%/+53%，7 月销量再次新 高破 5 万，连续 5 个月位列新势力销冠；2）销量结构持续优化，25Q2 B/C 平台销量占比 57.6%/24.4%，价格较低的 T03 占比 18.0%，同环比-7. ...

Core Viewpoint - Leapmotor has significantly changed the perception of "new forces" survival rules in the electric vehicle market with its impressive half-year report, achieving a 156% surge in sales, a gross margin exceeding 14.1%, and its first half-year profit, positioning itself as a leader among new energy vehicle brands [2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Leapmotor reported revenue of 24.25 billion yuan and a net profit of 30 million yuan, marking a turnaround from a loss of 2 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 [3]. - The gross margin increased from 1.1% in the previous year to 14.1%, surpassing the critical 10% profitability threshold [3]. - Operating cash flow reached 2.86 billion yuan, a tenfold increase year-on-year, while free cash flow improved to 860 million yuan from a negative 480 million yuan [3]. Sales and Delivery - Leapmotor's total delivery volume in the first half of 2025 reached 221,664 units, a year-on-year increase of 155.7%, setting a new record for the company [3]. - In July 2025, Leapmotor achieved a monthly delivery of over 50,000 units, becoming the first new energy vehicle company to reach this milestone in the year [3]. Product Strategy - The company launched two new models based on the B platform and upgraded three existing models on the C platform, effectively covering a broader range of consumer needs [4]. - The C10 model achieved cumulative global deliveries of over 100,000 units within 13 months, while the C11 surpassed 250,000 units by June 2025 [4]. Sales Network and Channel Strategy - Leapmotor expanded its sales network to 286 cities, with over 800 stores, focusing on channel penetration strategies [4]. - The "1+N" model and "Golden Seed" plan enhanced single-store operational efficiency and improved customer conversion rates through a digital retail system [4]. Research and Development - The company significantly increased its investment in R&D, particularly in intelligent driving, with team size and computational resources nearly doubling compared to the previous year [5]. - Leapmotor aims to enhance its R&D resources in end-to-end algorithms and VLA technology, targeting the launch of city NOA (Navigation Assisted Driving) by the end of 2025 [5]. Global Expansion - Leapmotor's international strategy is accelerating, with 20,375 units exported in the first half of 2025, capturing a 1% share of the competitive German BEV market [6]. - The new B10 model is set to launch in Europe, with plans for localized production and R&D by the end of 2026 [6][7]. Long-term Strategy - The company emphasizes a "long-termism" approach in its overseas strategy, prioritizing brand recognition and sustainable market share over immediate high margins [8]. - Leapmotor aims to establish a complete ecosystem covering R&D, manufacturing, sales, and service in key overseas markets, with a sales target of 1 million units by 2026 [8].

Core Insights - Leap Motor reported a significant financial performance for the first half of 2025, achieving a revenue of 24.25 billion yuan, a gross margin of 14.1%, and a net profit of 30 million yuan, making it the second Chinese new energy vehicle company to achieve semi-annual profitability after Li Auto [2] - The company raised its annual sales target from 500,000-600,000 units to 580,000-650,000 units and set a goal to challenge 1 million units in 2026 [2][6] Financial Performance - The delivery volume reached 221,664 units, a year-on-year increase of 155.7% - Revenue increased by 174% year-on-year to 24.25 billion yuan - Gross margin rose to 14.1%, marking a historical high for the company in the first half of the year - Operating cash flow and free cash flow were both positive, with cash reserves amounting to 29.58 billion yuan, indicating strong financial health [2][3] Research and Development - R&D expenditure for the first half of the year reached 1.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.9%, with a doubling of the scale and computational resources of the intelligent driving team [3] - The company aims to leverage its strong cash flow and reserves to support future R&D and global expansion [3] Profitability Drivers - Scale effects are fundamental to Leap Motor's profitability, with main models like C10 and C11 achieving significant sales milestones - Over 65% of core components are self-developed, enhancing cost structure and competitive differentiation [5] - The company reported nearly 1.1 billion yuan in revenue from non-automotive sales, contributing to overall revenue growth [5] Sales and Market Strategy - The annual sales target has been adjusted to 580,000-650,000 units, with a goal of reaching 1 million units by 2026 - The product matrix will continue to expand with new models launching in the coming months [6] - The company plans to establish a localized production base in Europe by the end of 2026 [8] International Expansion - Leap Motor is pursuing international growth through a "reverse joint venture" model, aiming to leverage partnerships for faster development in global markets - As of mid-2025, the company has established over 600 outlets in approximately 30 global markets, with Europe contributing 1.85 billion yuan in revenue [8]

浙江零跑科技股份有限公司（简称："零跑汽车"，股票代码："9863"）今日发布截至2025年6月30日的业绩报告，财报显示，零跑汽车2025年上半年营收 为242.49亿元，较上年同期的88.45亿元增长174%。 | | 截至6月30日止六個月 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025年 | 2024年 | | | 人民幣千元 | 人民幣千元 | | | (未經審計) | (未經審計) | | 收益 | 24.249.601 | 8.845.408 | | 销售成本 | (20,823,968) | (8.745.183) | | 毛利 | 3,425,633 | 100,225 | | 銷售開支 | (1.405.355) | (902.653) | | 行政開支 | (789.558) | (435.015) | | 研發開支 | (1.894.331) | (1.221.285) | | 金融資產及合約資產減值虧損淨額 | (3,447) | (354) | | 其他收入 | 510,496 | 42,756 | | 其他收益一淨額 | 67,932 | 21,297 | | ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 30 million RMB, marking its first interim profitability and becoming the second EV startup to do so [6][9] - The gross profit margin reached a historical high of 14.1% in the first half of 2025, attributed to economies of scale, cost management, and product mix optimization [6][8] - Total income as of June was 24.25 billion RMB, with operating net cash increasing to 2.86 billion RMB compared to 270 million RMB in the same period of 2024 [9][10] - Free cash flow improved to 860 million RMB from a negative 480 million RMB year-on-year [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total sales in the first half of 2025 were 221,664 units, up 155.7% compared to the same period in 2024, making the company the top startup EV brand in China [10] - In July, deliveries reached a new high of 50,129 vehicles, maintaining the number one position for five consecutive months [10][11] - The company marked cumulative deliveries of 800,000 vehicles since its IPO, with over 100,000 units delivered globally [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - As of June, the company expanded its sales network to cover 286 cities, an increase of 88 cities from the previous year [19] - The company deployed 806 sales outlets, with same-shop performance exceeding 82% [20] - In June, the company's market share in Germany surpassed 1%, with over 4,000 European users placing orders in July, a historical high [25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to continue investing in R&D, with a focus on achieving urban assisted driving by the end of 2025 [15][16] - New product launches include facelifts of existing models and the introduction of a high-quality sedan targeting young families [13][14] - The company aims to penetrate tier one and tier two cities while expanding into areas where it currently lacks presence [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving sales guidance of 580,000 to 650,000 units for the full year, adjusting from the previous guidance of 500,000 to 600,000 units [33] - The company anticipates a slight increase in gross profit margin in the second half of the year, aiming for around 15% [49] - Management believes that the impact of the removal of purchase tax incentives will be minimal, similar to the previous year's experience with subsidy removal [90][92] Other Important Information - The company received an MSCI ESG double A rating for the second consecutive year, reflecting its commitment to environmental protection and corporate governance [27][28] - The company is exploring capital collaboration opportunities to enhance industrial resource synergies [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the sales outlook for August and September? - Management expects significant growth in sales for August and September, with Q3 sales projected to be between 170,000 to 180,000 units [33] Question: What is the outlook for gross profit margin in subsequent quarters? - Management believes the gross profit margin will improve in the second half compared to the first half, maintaining above 14% [34] Question: How does the company plan to handle pricing strategy amid regulatory changes? - The company supports government efforts to curb industry chaos and will not engage in excessive competition, maintaining a strong gross profit margin through cost control [40][41] Question: What is the guidance on expenses as sales grow? - Management did not provide specific guidance on expenses but noted that the expense ratio is dropping as sales revenue increases [43] Question: What are the expectations for overseas sales and localized production? - The company expects to double overseas sales next year, with localized production in Europe planned for the B series model [44][45] Question: How will the removal of purchase tax incentives impact sales? - Management anticipates minimal impact from the removal of purchase tax incentives, similar to the previous year's experience with subsidy removal [90][92]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 30 million RMB, marking its first interim profitability and becoming the second EV startup to do so [6][9] - The gross profit margin reached a historical high of 14.1% in the first half of 2025, attributed to economies of scale, cost management, and product mix optimization [6][8] - Total income for the first half was 24.25 billion RMB, with operating net cash increasing to 2.86 billion RMB compared to 270 million RMB in the same period of 2024 [9][10] - Free cash flow improved to 860 million RMB from a negative 480 million RMB year-on-year [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total sales in the first half of 2025 were 221,664 units, a 155.7% increase compared to the same period in 2024, making the company the top startup EV brand in China [10] - In July 2025, deliveries reached a new high of 50,129 units, maintaining the number one position for five consecutive months [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expanded its sales network to cover 286 cities, an increase of 88 cities from the previous year, with 806 sales outlets established [19][20] - In June 2025, the company's market share in Germany exceeded 1%, with over 4,000 orders placed by European users in July [25][26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to continue investing in R&D, with a focus on smart driving technologies and expanding its product lineup [15][16] - The company aims to achieve localized production in Europe and Malaysia by 2026, enhancing its global market presence [27][71] - The strategy includes deepening market penetration in tier three to tier five cities in China, capitalizing on the growing demand for new energy vehicles [66] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving a revised full-year sales guidance of 580,000 to 650,000 units, based on strong performance in the first half and positive outlook for the second half [33][34] - The company anticipates a slight increase in gross profit margin in the second half, aiming for around 15% as it scales operations [49][50] - Management noted that the impact of the removal of the new energy vehicle purchase tax would be minimal, similar to the previous year's experience with subsidy removal [90][92] Other Important Information - The company has received an MSCI ESG double A rating for its commitment to environmental protection and corporate governance [28] - The company is exploring capital collaboration opportunities to enhance industrial resource synergies [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the sales outlook for August and September? - Management expects significant growth in sales for August and September, with Q3 sales projected to be between 170,000 to 180,000 units [33] Question: What is the outlook for gross profit margin in subsequent quarters? - Management believes the gross profit margin will improve in the second half compared to the first half, maintaining above 14% [34] Question: How does the company plan to handle pricing strategy amid regulatory changes? - The company supports government efforts to curb industry chaos and will not engage in excessive competition, maintaining a strong gross profit margin through cost control [40][41] Question: What is the guidance on expenses as sales grow? - Management indicated that while absolute expenses are rising, the expense ratio is dropping rapidly due to increased sales revenue [43] Question: What are the expectations for overseas sales and carbon credit purchases? - Management expects overseas sales to double next year, with Stellantis likely to continue purchasing carbon credits [44][47] Question: How will the removal of the purchase tax impact sales and profitability? - Management anticipates minimal impact on sales due to the removal of the purchase tax, similar to the previous year's experience with subsidy removal [90][92]

Core Viewpoint - The next three years are crucial for Leap Motor's rapid development, with expectations of doubling sales in 2024 and 2025, and a target of 50% to 100% growth in 2026 [1] Group 1: Sales and Market Position - Leap Motor aims to rank 11th in global sales among new energy vehicle companies in 2024, with aspirations to enter the top five in the future [2] - The company has a solid foundation and unique advantages that allow it to identify new growth opportunities [2] Group 2: Product Development and Cost Management - All models of Leap Motor are designed on a platform basis, allowing for flexibility and cost optimization [1] - The company has a clear and stable R&D strategy, focusing on self-research and manufacturing of high-value components, which helps reduce costs and improve vehicle value [1] Group 3: Product Offering and Market Confidence - Leap Motor is confident in entering the market above 200,000 yuan, with the C11 model exceeding previous price ranges while maintaining strong sales [1] - The D series is expected to be a high-end offering that will also attract customers due to its quality and features [1] Group 4: Production Capacity and Financial Health - Leap Motor plans to establish production capacity that aligns with its sales targets while controlling fixed asset investment [3] - The company will maintain sufficient cash reserves to support its operations [3]

Group 1 - Hong Kong is becoming an important strategic hub for Chinese automotive companies to expand globally [1][4] - Leap Motor has opened its first store in Hong Kong and plans to establish a second experience center by December this year [1][4] - The company has a global network of 1,500 outlets and operates in over 24 international markets, including Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific [1] Group 2 - Leap Motor's initial models in Hong Kong are the right-hand drive versions of C10 and T03, which are also sold in Europe [3] - The company has achieved nearly 800,000 cumulative sales, with C11 selling over 250,000 units in three years and C10 surpassing 100,000 units in 13 months [3] - Leap Motor aims for overseas sales of 50,000 to 80,000 units by 2025 and plans to start local production in Europe by mid-2026 [3] Group 3 - The Hong Kong government has extended tax reduction policies for electric vehicles until March 31, 2026, promoting EV adoption [4] - In the first four months of this year, 8,916 electric vehicles were registered in Hong Kong, with a penetration rate of 68% for new energy vehicles [4] - The 2025 International Automotive and Supply Chain Expo will be held in Hong Kong, featuring 11 mainland car companies, including Leap Motor [4]

Core Viewpoint - NIO's Q1 financial report shows a year-on-year revenue growth of 21.5%, reaching RMB 120.3 billion, but the net loss increased by 30.2% to RMB 67.5 billion, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving profitability [5][6]. Company Performance - Li Auto reported the highest revenue among new energy vehicle companies at RMB 25.9 billion, while Leap Motor achieved record revenue and gross margin, exceeding RMB 10 billion with a gross margin of 14.9% [1]. - Xpeng Motors improved its gross margin to 15.6%, with a revenue of RMB 15.8 billion, marking a 141.5% year-on-year increase [9]. - NIO's gross margin was 7.6%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, but still reflects a struggle to reach profitability [5][6]. Sales and Deliveries - In May, several new energy vehicle companies reported strong delivery numbers, with Li Auto delivering 40,856 vehicles, a 16.7% increase year-on-year, and NIO delivering 23,231 vehicles, a 13.1% increase [11][16]. - Xpeng Motors delivered 33,525 vehicles in May, a 230% year-on-year increase, while Leap Motor and Zeekr also reported deliveries exceeding 40,000 units [11][12]. Future Outlook - NIO aims to achieve profitability by Q4 2024, with expectations of monthly sales of 50,000 units across its brands and a gross margin exceeding 20% [5][8]. - Xpeng Motors is also targeting profitability in Q4 2024, with a projected revenue of RMB 175 billion to RMB 187 billion for Q2 2024, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth [9]. - The overall industry is expected to transition from a model of increasing revenue without profit to a more sustainable growth phase, driven by competitive pressures and market dynamics [4].

Group 1 - The Zhejiang Provincial Disabled Persons Welfare Foundation launched the third phase of the technology assistance project for limb-disabled individuals, aiming to recruit 100 beneficiaries for free installation of smart bionic legs [1][3] - Leap Motor, as a charitable donor for the project, encourages limb-disabled individuals in need to apply through official channels, aligning with its mission of providing high-quality, well-configured electric vehicles through continuous technological innovation [1][3] - The project addresses the dual challenges of limited functionality of traditional prosthetics and the high cost of smart prosthetics, promoting a collaborative model involving government, charitable enterprises, and technology companies [3] Group 2 - Leap Motor, founded in 2015, is a technology-driven smart electric vehicle company headquartered in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, focusing on the design, research, and manufacturing of electric vehicles and related technologies [3] - The company has a self-research and manufacturing ratio of 65% in its core components, having introduced several industry-leading technologies, including the first eight-in-one electric drive and the first mass-produced CTC battery chassis integration technology [3] - In 2023, Stellantis Group invested in Leap Motor, and in May 2024, they established a joint venture to expand into international markets [3]