Core Viewpoint - The recent "Super Central Bank Week" concluded with the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points, prompting other central banks to follow suit, leading to a recalibration of asset pricing and new trading logic in the market [1] Market Performance - Global stock markets exhibited mixed results, with U.S. stocks initially declining but later reaching new highs, while A-shares experienced a pullback after a rise [1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) saw a slight increase, while the volatility index (VIX) rose, indicating market uncertainty [1] - U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index initially fell but later rebounded, showcasing volatility in non-U.S. currencies [1] Commodity Market Trends - Commodity prices displayed divergence, with gold experiencing high volatility, copper prices dropping significantly, and oil prices remaining weak, leading to a weekly decline in the CRB index [1] - In the domestic market, a trend against "involution" boosted black commodities, particularly coking coal and coke, while glass and soda ash also saw gains [1] - The domestic bond market showed mixed results, with stock indices reflecting varied performances [1] Commodity Sector Analysis - The Wind Commodity Index reported a weekly change of -0.19%, with 4 out of 10 sectors gaining and 6 sectors declining, indicating a pattern of strength domestically but weakness externally [1] - Precious metals faced a correction, and the significant drop in non-ferrous metals negatively impacted overall commodity performance, while coal, steel, and non-metallic building materials sectors surged [1] - Agricultural products led the decline among commodity sectors [1] Future Outlook - The resumption of the interest rate cut process is expected to shift global macro trading logic, with the Fed's rate cut likely to influence commodity prices through various channels [1] - Generally, rate cuts enhance the attractiveness of gold and other commodities, as a weaker dollar supports commodity prices and liquidity injections boost expectations [1] - The phenomenon of "buying the expectation, selling the fact" is noted, with gold experiencing a rise followed by a pullback post-rate cut, suggesting that future commodity trends may diverge [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has opened the door for potential interest rate cuts as early as next month, indicating a shift in economic outlook due to a possible significant slowdown in the labor market and concerns over inflation driven by tariffs [1][2][4]. Economic Outlook - Powell noted that the balance of risks is changing, with the labor market showing signs of weakness, which could lead to increased layoffs and rising unemployment rates [1][3]. - The Fed has maintained interest rates steady this year, citing a robust labor market and uncertainty regarding inflation risks from tariffs [1][2]. Inflation Concerns - Powell emphasized that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is becoming clearer and is expected to accumulate in the coming months, raising questions about whether these price increases will lead to persistent inflation risks [2][4]. - He expressed greater confidence that the inflationary effects of tariffs may be temporary, but warned that rising costs could lead to a wage-price spiral if workers successfully negotiate higher wages [2][3]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's speech, traders increased bets on a rate cut in September, with the probability now exceeding 90%, up from about 75% before his remarks [5]. - U.S. stock indices rose over 1%, with the Dow Jones reaching a new historical high, while the dollar index fell below 98 [5]. Analyst Insights - Analysts believe Powell's dovish stance indicates readiness for a rate cut in September, driven by labor market weaknesses rather than tariff-induced price increases [7][8]. - Powell's commitment to data-driven policy decisions reflects a response to political pressures, emphasizing that monetary policy will not follow a predetermined path [8].

Group 1 - The article discusses the current market trends, highlighting the significant rise in U.S. stocks and non-U.S. currencies [1] - It emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics to avoid potential pitfalls, referred to as the "golden meat grinder" scenario [1] - The analysis is presented by a researcher named Steven, who is conducting a live broadcast to provide insights on how to seize opportunities in the prevailing trends [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. "little non-farm" data was unexpectedly weak, prompting Trump to call for Powell to lower interest rates and to eliminate the debt ceiling [1] - Spot gold prices rose by 1% during the trading session, indicating strong bullish sentiment [1] - The U.S. dollar weakened across the board, leading to a general rise in non-U.S. currencies [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index showed a bullish sentiment with 45% long positions and 55% short positions [3] - The S&P 500 Index had 79% short positions, indicating a bearish outlook [3] - The Nasdaq Index had 76% short positions, reflecting a similar bearish sentiment [3] Group 3 - The Dow Jones Index had a more balanced sentiment with 55% long and 45% short positions [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index showed 58% long positions against 42% short positions [3] - The German DAX 40 Index had a significant 83% short position, indicating strong bearish sentiment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing a significant downward trend, reflecting a broader economic weakness and market sentiment regarding US policies and economic performance [1][2]. Economic Performance - The US economy has not met market expectations, with the GDP for Q1 2025 showing a preliminary annualized rate of -0.3%, below the expected 0.3% [2]. - Consumer-related indicators also reflect economic weakness, contributing to the decline in the dollar index [2]. Trade Policies and Market Sentiment - US tariff policies have diminished market confidence in the dollar, leading to increased de-dollarization, particularly noted by a significant reduction in US Treasury holdings by China [2]. - European policy adjustments, influenced by US foreign policy, are causing a shift towards increased spending in defense and infrastructure, which may stabilize the Euro and further weaken the dollar [2]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The persistently low US inflation rate, currently below 3%, coupled with falling oil prices, suggests that the Federal Reserve may initiate interest rate cuts, adding downward pressure on the dollar index [2]. Asset Performance - Precious metals like gold and silver are expected to rebound as they have a long-term negative correlation with the dollar, benefiting from increased market risk aversion [4]. - Commodities may also strengthen due to lower costs for non-dollar currencies, stimulating demand and price increases, especially if the Fed cuts rates [4]. - Non-US currencies are likely to appreciate as the dollar weakens, allowing other currencies to exchange for more dollars [4]. - Stock markets in Hong Kong, A-shares, and Japan may see gains as international capital shifts away from dollar-denominated assets, with notable movements from investors like Warren Buffett [4]. Impact on US Assets - US stocks and bonds are under pressure as international capital sells off these dollar-related assets, leading to a decline in their value [5]. - Financial stocks in the US may be directly impacted by a weaker dollar and potential Fed rate cuts, which could narrow banks' net interest margins and affect profit expectations [5].