本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【超级央行周落幕，市场多领域走势分化，大宗商品后市料将分化】最近，超级央行周结束，美联储如 期降息25BP，多国央行跟进。降息交易逻辑调整，主要资产校正过度定价的宽松预期，酝酿新交易逻 辑。 全球主要股市涨跌不一，美股先抑后扬创新高，A股冲高回落调整。BDI指数小涨，波动率VIX指 数抬升，美债收益率与美元指数先抑后扬，非美货币表现各异。 大宗商品走势分化，黄金高位震荡， 铜价大跌拖累有色板块，油价疲软，CRB周度收跌。国内，反内卷行情推升黑色系上扬，焦煤焦炭领 涨，玻璃纯碱跟涨。 国内债市涨跌互现远期承压，股指表现分化。商品大类板块涨跌互现，多数收 跌。股市涨跌互现，成长型风格抗跌，价值股下挫。 国内商品大类板块涨跌互现，Wind商品指数周度 涨跌幅 -0.19%，10个板块4个收涨6个收跌。呈现内强外弱特征，贵金属回调与有色大跌拖累商品收 跌，煤焦钢矿与非金属建材板块大涨，能源等板块小涨，农副产品板块领跌。 当下，降息进程重启， 全球宏观交易逻辑将切换。美联储降息将通过多渠道影响大宗商品。一般而言，降息提升黄金等吸引 力，使美元贬值支撑大宗商品价 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has opened the door for potential interest rate cuts as early as next month, indicating a shift in economic outlook due to a possible significant slowdown in the labor market and concerns over inflation driven by tariffs [1][2][4]. Economic Outlook - Powell noted that the balance of risks is changing, with the labor market showing signs of weakness, which could lead to increased layoffs and rising unemployment rates [1][3]. - The Fed has maintained interest rates steady this year, citing a robust labor market and uncertainty regarding inflation risks from tariffs [1][2]. Inflation Concerns - Powell emphasized that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is becoming clearer and is expected to accumulate in the coming months, raising questions about whether these price increases will lead to persistent inflation risks [2][4]. - He expressed greater confidence that the inflationary effects of tariffs may be temporary, but warned that rising costs could lead to a wage-price spiral if workers successfully negotiate higher wages [2][3]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's speech, traders increased bets on a rate cut in September, with the probability now exceeding 90%, up from about 75% before his remarks [5]. - U.S. stock indices rose over 1%, with the Dow Jones reaching a new historical high, while the dollar index fell below 98 [5]. Analyst Insights - Analysts believe Powell's dovish stance indicates readiness for a rate cut in September, driven by labor market weaknesses rather than tariff-induced price increases [7][8]. - Powell's commitment to data-driven policy decisions reflects a response to political pressures, emphasizing that monetary policy will not follow a predetermined path [8].

Group 1 - The article discusses the current market trends, highlighting the significant rise in U.S. stocks and non-U.S. currencies [1] - It emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics to avoid potential pitfalls, referred to as the "golden meat grinder" scenario [1] - The analysis is presented by a researcher named Steven, who is conducting a live broadcast to provide insights on how to seize opportunities in the prevailing trends [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. "little non-farm" data was unexpectedly weak, prompting Trump to call for Powell to lower interest rates and to eliminate the debt ceiling [1] - Spot gold prices rose by 1% during the trading session, indicating strong bullish sentiment [1] - The U.S. dollar weakened across the board, leading to a general rise in non-U.S. currencies [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index showed a bullish sentiment with 45% long positions and 55% short positions [3] - The S&P 500 Index had 79% short positions, indicating a bearish outlook [3] - The Nasdaq Index had 76% short positions, reflecting a similar bearish sentiment [3] Group 3 - The Dow Jones Index had a more balanced sentiment with 55% long and 45% short positions [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index showed 58% long positions against 42% short positions [3] - The German DAX 40 Index had a significant 83% short position, indicating strong bearish sentiment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing a significant downward trend, reflecting a broader economic weakness and market sentiment regarding US policies and economic performance [1][2]. Economic Performance - The US economy has not met market expectations, with the GDP for Q1 2025 showing a preliminary annualized rate of -0.3%, below the expected 0.3% [2]. - Consumer-related indicators also reflect economic weakness, contributing to the decline in the dollar index [2]. Trade Policies and Market Sentiment - US tariff policies have diminished market confidence in the dollar, leading to increased de-dollarization, particularly noted by a significant reduction in US Treasury holdings by China [2]. - European policy adjustments, influenced by US foreign policy, are causing a shift towards increased spending in defense and infrastructure, which may stabilize the Euro and further weaken the dollar [2]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The persistently low US inflation rate, currently below 3%, coupled with falling oil prices, suggests that the Federal Reserve may initiate interest rate cuts, adding downward pressure on the dollar index [2]. Asset Performance - Precious metals like gold and silver are expected to rebound as they have a long-term negative correlation with the dollar, benefiting from increased market risk aversion [4]. - Commodities may also strengthen due to lower costs for non-dollar currencies, stimulating demand and price increases, especially if the Fed cuts rates [4]. - Non-US currencies are likely to appreciate as the dollar weakens, allowing other currencies to exchange for more dollars [4]. - Stock markets in Hong Kong, A-shares, and Japan may see gains as international capital shifts away from dollar-denominated assets, with notable movements from investors like Warren Buffett [4]. Impact on US Assets - US stocks and bonds are under pressure as international capital sells off these dollar-related assets, leading to a decline in their value [5]. - Financial stocks in the US may be directly impacted by a weaker dollar and potential Fed rate cuts, which could narrow banks' net interest margins and affect profit expectations [5].