12月17日，今日酒价最新披露数据显示，飞天茅台（2025散）批价连续3日企稳在1550元/瓶，飞天茅台 （2025散）批价上涨至1570元/瓶，蛇茅生肖酒批价上涨至1720元/瓶。贵州茅台股价及食品饮料ETF （515170.SH）也连续展开反弹。 回顾白酒行业历史上四起三落，三次调整周期都是经济与政策双向负面挤压的结果。参照上一轮调整周 期（2012~2016年）的三阶段演绎路径——阶段一，动销与批价加速下跌&报表端开始出清；阶段二， 动销与批价跌幅收窄&报表端持续出清；阶段三，动销与批价回升&报表端随后转正。 展望2026年，中国银河证券表示，12月重要会议将"扩大内需"放在重点工作首位，并且提出"制定实施 城乡居民增收计划""扩大优质商品和服务供给"，看好人均收入改善与内需复苏对食品饮料整体带来的 贝塔修复。 投资方面，关注食品饮料ETF（515170.SH），标的指数为中证细分食品饮料产业主题指数 （000815.CSI）。与酒ETF相比，食品饮料ETF（515170.SH）放弃三四线酒企，更加聚焦"茅五泸汾 洋"等一二线白酒龙头企业，合计权重近六成，在行业调整周期，龙头公司有望充分受益尾部出清后的 ...

12月10日，大消费板块企稳上扬，免税、航司涨幅居前，食品饮料ETF（515170.SH）、旅游ETF（562510.SH）二 级市场价格也上扬。11月下旬以来，食品饮料ETF（515170.SH）呈现破位下跌，但资金逢低买入，连续5日出现净申 购，累计超1.7亿元。 此外，11月服务价格季节性下降影响。服务价格下降0.4%，影响CPI环比下降约0.16个百分点。其中，节后出行需 求季节性回落，宾馆住宿、飞机票、旅行社收费和交通工具租赁费价格分别下降10.4%、10.2%、6.2%和3.6%，合计影 响CPI环比下降约0.13个百分点；房屋租赁进入淡季，房租价格下降0.2%。 但同比来看，11月服务和扣除能源的工业消费品价格分别上涨0.7%和2.1%，分别影响CPI同比上涨约0.29个百分点 和0.53个百分点。其中扩内需政策措施继续显效，家用器具和服装价格分别上涨4.9%和2.0%，飞机票、家政服务和在外 餐饮价格分别上涨7.0%、2.4%和1.2%。金饰品价格涨幅扩大至58.4%。另外，燃油小汽车和新能源小汽车价格分别下降 2.5%和2.4%。 每日经济新闻 权重股方面，旅游ETF（562510.SH）持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the childcare subsidy policy is a significant step towards addressing the declining birth rate in China, with a basic annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child for families with children under three years old starting from January 1, 2025 [2][5]. Group 1: Policy Details - The subsidy will be provided annually and is exempt from personal income tax, not counted as family income for social assistance evaluations [2]. - Families with children born before January 1, 2025, will receive a prorated subsidy based on the number of eligible months [2]. Group 2: Economic Context - The cost of raising children in China is significantly high, with a ratio of 6.3 compared to GDP, surpassing many developed countries [3][4]. - The subsidy of 300 yuan per month is seen as insufficient to alleviate the overall financial burden of raising children, but it is a step towards improving birth rates [5][7]. Group 3: Market Reaction and Investment Opportunities - Following the announcement of the subsidy, the infant and child-related stocks showed a slight increase, indicating market optimism [9]. - The policy is expected to have a broader impact on consumer spending, particularly in the baby and education sectors, suggesting potential investment opportunities in related ETFs [12][14]. Group 4: Long-term Implications - The increase in birth rates is anticipated to be a long-term process requiring a combination of supportive policies beyond just financial subsidies [7][11]. - The childcare subsidy is viewed as a starting point for a more comprehensive approach to population policy, which may include enhancements in education and social support systems [11].