1月29日午后，白酒板块涨势不止，泸州老窖、舍得酒业、酒鬼酒、水井坊等多股齐齐涨停，万亿市值 贵州茅台强势上涨超8%，成交大幅放量至215亿元。食品饮料ETF（515170.SH）涨超5%，接近弥合1月 以来所有跌幅。 刚刚披露的公募基金2025年四季报显示，白酒基金持仓从2020年高点的16%下降到当前的3.93%，较三 季报的6.4%进一步降仓。贵州茅台在前十大重仓股中退至第四。 西部证券曹柳龙指出：当前公募基金持仓白酒已经低于第二轮（2009年）和第四轮（2019年）白酒周期 启动时的仓位，筹码进一步出清，新一轮周期启动的筹码条件已基本满足。 板块的低估值+高股息率，也为食品饮料板块投资额外提供了较好的安全垫。 关注食品饮料ETF （515170.SH）及其联接基金（013126.OF）被动跟踪中证细分食品指数（000815.CSI），指数最新PE- TTM仅19倍，位于近十年1%分位数，也就是说比历史上99%时间都要"便宜"，处于极度低估区域。 华夏基金数量投资部分析称，自2021年初以来，食品饮料板块已经连续调整近五年，行业悲观预期或已 充分释放。复盘历史数据，连跌3~4年的板块往往有反转。像202 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the adjustment of Beijing's real estate policies aimed at optimizing housing conditions and stimulating market recovery, effective from December 24, 2025 [1][2] - The policy adjustments include relaxing home purchase conditions for non-Beijing residents, reducing the social security or tax payment duration required for purchasing homes within the Fifth Ring from 3 years to 2 years, and for homes outside the Fifth Ring from 2 years to 1 year [2] - Support for multi-child families is emphasized, allowing Beijing residents with two or more children to purchase an additional home within the Fifth Ring, and non-Beijing multi-child families with 2 years of social security or tax payments to buy 2 homes [2] Group 2 - The minimum down payment for second home public housing loans is reduced from 30% to 25% [2] - The adjustments are expected to promote a cyclical recovery in the real estate market, as indicated by Guohai Securities, which noted that ongoing structural adjustments in the real estate market could impact consumer sentiment and willingness to leverage [2] - Data from Dongwu Securities shows that China's household consumption rate is projected to be 39.9% in 2024, still lagging behind developed countries by approximately 10-30 percentage points [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market is currently in a phase of "pressure above and support below," with overall trading volume continuing to shrink, while only certain thematic sectors remain active [1] - The performance of the Shenwan first-level industries shows significant divergence, with non-ferrous metals and communications being the top performers, each with a year-to-date increase exceeding 85% as of December 23 [1] - In contrast, the food and beverage, coal, and beauty care sectors are underperforming, with the food and beverage sector experiencing a year-to-date decline of over 7%, potentially facing five consecutive years of negative returns if the trend does not reverse in the remaining trading days [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, institutions are optimistic about a potential turnaround in the food and beverage sector, noting that stock price turning points often precede fundamental turning points [2] - Guosen Securities highlights that the food and beverage sector has characteristics of "low base, low institutional holdings, and low valuation," and expects investment opportunities in this sector due to its relative valuation reaching a new low since 2011 [2] - Investment options include the food and beverage ETF (515170.SH) and its linked funds, as well as a food ETF that excludes liquor, which is currently being launched [2]

12月17日，今日酒价最新披露数据显示，飞天茅台（2025散）批价连续3日企稳在1550元/瓶，飞天茅台 （2025散）批价上涨至1570元/瓶，蛇茅生肖酒批价上涨至1720元/瓶。贵州茅台股价及食品饮料ETF （515170.SH）也连续展开反弹。 回顾白酒行业历史上四起三落，三次调整周期都是经济与政策双向负面挤压的结果。参照上一轮调整周 期（2012~2016年）的三阶段演绎路径——阶段一，动销与批价加速下跌&报表端开始出清；阶段二， 动销与批价跌幅收窄&报表端持续出清；阶段三，动销与批价回升&报表端随后转正。 展望2026年，中国银河证券表示，12月重要会议将"扩大内需"放在重点工作首位，并且提出"制定实施 城乡居民增收计划""扩大优质商品和服务供给"，看好人均收入改善与内需复苏对食品饮料整体带来的 贝塔修复。 投资方面，关注食品饮料ETF（515170.SH），标的指数为中证细分食品饮料产业主题指数 （000815.CSI）。与酒ETF相比，食品饮料ETF（515170.SH）放弃三四线酒企，更加聚焦"茅五泸汾 洋"等一二线白酒龙头企业，合计权重近六成，在行业调整周期，龙头公司有望充分受益尾部出清后的 ...

12月10日，大消费板块企稳上扬，免税、航司涨幅居前，食品饮料ETF（515170.SH）、旅游ETF（562510.SH）二 级市场价格也上扬。11月下旬以来，食品饮料ETF（515170.SH）呈现破位下跌，但资金逢低买入，连续5日出现净申 购，累计超1.7亿元。 此外，11月服务价格季节性下降影响。服务价格下降0.4%，影响CPI环比下降约0.16个百分点。其中，节后出行需 求季节性回落，宾馆住宿、飞机票、旅行社收费和交通工具租赁费价格分别下降10.4%、10.2%、6.2%和3.6%，合计影 响CPI环比下降约0.13个百分点；房屋租赁进入淡季，房租价格下降0.2%。 但同比来看，11月服务和扣除能源的工业消费品价格分别上涨0.7%和2.1%，分别影响CPI同比上涨约0.29个百分点 和0.53个百分点。其中扩内需政策措施继续显效，家用器具和服装价格分别上涨4.9%和2.0%，飞机票、家政服务和在外 餐饮价格分别上涨7.0%、2.4%和1.2%。金饰品价格涨幅扩大至58.4%。另外，燃油小汽车和新能源小汽车价格分别下降 2.5%和2.4%。 每日经济新闻 权重股方面，旅游ETF（562510.SH）持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the childcare subsidy policy is a significant step towards addressing the declining birth rate in China, with a basic annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child for families with children under three years old starting from January 1, 2025 [2][5]. Group 1: Policy Details - The subsidy will be provided annually and is exempt from personal income tax, not counted as family income for social assistance evaluations [2]. - Families with children born before January 1, 2025, will receive a prorated subsidy based on the number of eligible months [2]. Group 2: Economic Context - The cost of raising children in China is significantly high, with a ratio of 6.3 compared to GDP, surpassing many developed countries [3][4]. - The subsidy of 300 yuan per month is seen as insufficient to alleviate the overall financial burden of raising children, but it is a step towards improving birth rates [5][7]. Group 3: Market Reaction and Investment Opportunities - Following the announcement of the subsidy, the infant and child-related stocks showed a slight increase, indicating market optimism [9]. - The policy is expected to have a broader impact on consumer spending, particularly in the baby and education sectors, suggesting potential investment opportunities in related ETFs [12][14]. Group 4: Long-term Implications - The increase in birth rates is anticipated to be a long-term process requiring a combination of supportive policies beyond just financial subsidies [7][11]. - The childcare subsidy is viewed as a starting point for a more comprehensive approach to population policy, which may include enhancements in education and social support systems [11].