临近 2025 年末，A 股市场仅剩 6 个交易日收官。当前市场处于 "上有压力、下有支撑" 的博弈阶段，整 体成交持续缩量，仅局部主题板块维持活跃态势。 回顾全年申万一级行业表现，呈现显著分化格局。受益于全球供应链重构与技术周期共振，有色金属、 通信两大行业成为年度 "领涨先锋"，截至 12 月 23 日收盘，年内累计涨幅均突破 85%，表现尤为亮 眼。与之形成鲜明对比的是，受国内需求端偏弱影响，食品饮料、煤炭、美容护理三大行业年内收益仍 处于负值区间，其中美容护理跌幅不足 1%，已接近回正。 展望 2026 年，机构普遍看好食品饮料行业的困境反转机遇，认为股价拐点往往领先于基本面拐点。国 信证券指出：食品饮料板块呈现"低基数、低机构持仓、低估值"的特点，展望 2026 年，我们看好食品 饮料板块投资机会，认为在连续三年跑输沪深 300 后，食品饮料（申万）相对沪深 300 的估值（PE- TTM）溢价创 2011 年来的新低，任何供需两端的变化均有可能催化股价上行，跑赢沪深 300 概率较 大。 投资方面，关注食品饮料 ETF（515170.SH）及其联接基金（华夏食品饮料 ETF 联接 A：013125 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Semiconductor Equipment Industry Industry Overview - The global semiconductor equipment market is dominated by a few leading suppliers, particularly in the thin film deposition sector, which typically has around three major players. [2] - The storage device industry is experiencing growth driven by the "price cycle" and "technology cycle" resonance, leading to high growth rates. [1] Key Company Insights - **Company Performance**: - Lam Research's revenue grew from $4.86 billion in 2014 to $16.2 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.8%. Profits increased from $720 million to $4.29 billion, achieving a CAGR of approximately 20%. [1][5] - Expected revenue CAGR from 2024 to 2028 is around 10%, with gross margins projected to reach 50% by 2028. [6][7] - **Market Position**: - Lam Research holds a global market share of nearly 20% in chemical vapor deposition (CVD) and 40%-50% in dry etching. [1][4] - The company has significantly increased its revenue in the NAND sector, from $1.63 billion in 2014-2015 to $7.47 billion in 2022. [11] Market Trends and Dynamics - **NAND and DRAM Development**: - The future of memory development is focused on increasing NAND layer stacking and transitioning DRAM from planar to 3D structures, which will enhance the demand for etching and deposition equipment. [1][12] - The DRAM market is benefiting from the explosion of AI demand, particularly for high bandwidth memory (HBM), leading to increased capital expenditures. [3][14] - **Emerging Technologies**: - New processes such as CMOS bonding and array bonding are being adopted in NAND technology, with companies like Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) implementing advanced stacking solutions. [18] - The industry is seeing a shift towards 3D NAND technology, which significantly increases the demand for etching and deposition equipment. [11] Financial Insights - **Capital Expenditure Trends**: - Capital expenditures in the logic chip sector are expected to grow by approximately 30% per 10,000 wafers, reflecting the industry's responsiveness to technological advancements. [15] - The DRAM market is projected to see a significant increase in capital expenditures driven by new technology innovations, despite potential price declines. [14] Competitive Landscape - **Key Competitors**: - Lam Research, Applied Materials, and Tokyo Electron are major players in the semiconductor equipment market, each performing differently across various segments. [12] - Emerging companies like Tuojing Technology and Zhongwei Company are also gaining attention for their potential in the expanding market. [25] Future Outlook - **Market Opportunities**: - China's demand for DRAM and NAND accounts for at least 20%-25% of the global market, but local manufacturers hold only about 10% market share, indicating significant room for growth. [17] - Upcoming IPOs of major storage companies are expected to alleviate funding pressures and support ongoing capital expenditures, potentially increasing their global market share. [17] Conclusion - The semiconductor equipment industry is poised for continued growth driven by technological advancements and increasing demand for memory solutions. Companies that adapt to these changes and innovate will likely capture greater market share in the evolving landscape. [13][19]

Core Viewpoint - The short-term market is in a policy and performance vacuum, requiring more catalysts for the index to break through key levels, with the market likely to remain volatile [1] Group 1: Market Strategy - The recommendation is to maintain a "barbell" strategy in asset allocation [1] - In the technology sector, the pressure of crowding has eased, and after adjustments, the cost-effectiveness is gradually improving, focusing on low-position targets in areas such as Hang Seng Technology, domestic computing power, and AI applications [1] - Given the uncertainties both domestically and internationally, previously underperforming dividend stocks are experiencing a rebound, with current opportunities in banks and certain cyclical dividend stocks [1] Group 2: Sector Focus - The third-quarter reports and high-frequency indicators are cross-validating, indicating that varieties with non-crowded valuations and chips, such as new energy and chemicals, are worth attention [1] - In the medium term, seven key clues will be monitored: policy cycle, technology cycle, real estate cycle, capacity cycle, inventory cycle, energy cycle, and capital market reform, with advanced manufacturing and pro-cyclical consumption being potential decisive factors [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a strong recovery after a low opening on June 3, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and CSI A500 Index turning positive. Key sectors that performed well included online gaming, brain-computer interfaces, gold and jewelry, and rare earths [1] - The A500 ETF (512050) recorded a trading volume exceeding 1 billion yuan, ranking first among similar products. Notable stocks within this ETF included Zhangqu Technology, which rose over 13%, and Giant Network, Huahai Pharmaceutical, and Aerospace Rainbow, which all increased by over 8% [1] - The A500 ETF tracks the CSI A500 Index and employs a dual strategy of industry-balanced allocation and leading stock selection, covering all sub-industries. It emphasizes both value and growth attributes, with a higher allocation in sectors like pharmaceuticals, electronics, and power equipment compared to the CSI 300 Index, representing core assets in the current A-share market [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities released a mid-term outlook for 2025, predicting that ROE (Return on Equity) is expected to stabilize and recover in the second half of 2025 due to improvements in net profit margins, stabilization of turnover rates, and an increase in equity multipliers, marking the end of the downward cycle for A-share ROE [1] - The broad valuation recovery of Chinese assets is still in progress, driven by three main variables: technological innovation, the end of the rapid decline in the real estate sector, and improvements in policy cycles. The trend is expected to remain unchanged in the second half of the year, with "de-dollarization" providing upward pressure on the renminbi, enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese asset allocation [1] - Core assets represented by A50, consumption, and finance have shown remarkable fundamental resilience over the past three years and are expected to play a leading role in the upcoming ROE recovery cycle. Additionally, five investment themes are highlighted: renminbi appreciation, technology cycles, capacity cycles, inventory cycles, and capital market reforms [1]