西南证券发布研报称，2025年轻工板块业绩平淡，顺周期及传统制造估值承压，包装、出口、个护板块 表现分化。2026年重点关注四条主线：1）低估值顺周期（如造纸）迎底部反转；2）需求强、产能布局 优的出口标的；3）国货个护品牌持续成长；4）AI眼镜、新型烟草等新消费赛道延续高景气。 推荐标的：太阳纸业、博汇纸业、稳健医疗、百亚股份、诺邦股份、依依股份、梦百合、顾家家居。 风险提示：地产竣工不及预期的风险；终端需求疲弱的风险；原材料价格波动的风险；汇率波动的风 险。 回顾2025年，在业绩表现相对平淡的背景下，轻工板块中传统顺周期和传统制造公司的估值依然受到压 制。而包装印刷等板块受益于提价落地（金属包装）和跨界转型等因素，股价表现较好。出口板块在关 税政策扰动下出现一定程度分化，其中多产能布局均衡、需求韧性强、受关税影响小的标的表现较好。 个护板块在上半年有超额收益，下半年受电商渠道竞争加剧的影响，进入估值消化期，但国货品牌受益 于产品结构优化和渠道扩张，中长期成长逻辑有望持续兑现。 2026年选股思路 一方面关注低估顺周期资产在大宗周期变化下估值修复，逐步兑现配置价值；另一方面不断平衡新消费 及出口板块的估值 ...

一元复始，市场启新。国内外主要投行近期陆续发布2026年度市场展望，对投资主线进行前瞻分析，成 为解读新一年投资方向的重要窗口。当前，全球宏观经济格局重塑，国内产业升级持续推进，A股加速 融入全球资本市场体系。 站在"十五五"规划开局之年，多家国内外投行认为，2026年全球资本回流中国的预期升温，有望为市场 注入增量活力。同时，资本市场盈利复苏趋势逐渐清晰，结构性机会凸显：科技革新、制造业全球化、 顺周期复苏成为核心主线，AI商业化、中企出海、资源品价值重估等方向备受关注。大宗商品方面， 黄金在央行购金和美联储降息周期支撑下有望续创新高，铜因供应受限与需求增长共振而被长期看好， 原油市场则面临供应过剩的压力。 ● 本报记者 葛瑶 胡雨 中信证券： 中国企业价值链地位将提升 "十五五"期间，中国企业在全球价值链中的位置有望进一步提升，将份额优势转化为定价权，这是A股 行情迈向低波动率上涨行情的基础。未来A股的基本面要置于全球市场需求中观察，而不是仅看本土需 求，中国资本市场也正从新兴市场逐步转型为成熟市场。A股不仅是中国的A股，也是全球的A股。 从行业配置看，有三大线索值得重视：一是资源品和传统制造产业提质升级 ...

12月25日盘后，白酒板块直线拉升，食品饮料ETF(515170.SH)盘中涨超1%，权重股"茅五泸汾洋"齐齐 上涨超1%，水井坊（600779）涨停，酒鬼酒（000799）涨超4%。消息面上，12月24日，北京带头进一 步放宽住房限购政策，新一轮房地产提振措施，有望推动顺周期复苏。 整体上，食品饮料ETF(515170.SH)及其联接基金(华夏食品饮料ETF联接C：013126，联接A：013125)是 个人投资者低资金门槛、分散化把握行业底部贝塔修复机会的好工具。 截至12月25日收盘，2025年A股仅剩4个交易日。31个申万一级行业中，食品饮料行业表现最差，年初 至今跌幅超-7%，位列倒数第一，如果在剩下的6个交易日里不能弥补-7%的跌幅，这将是食品饮料行业 连续第5年收益为负。 食品饮料ETF(515170.SH)，标的指数为中证细分食品饮料产业主题指数(000815.CSI)，与纯酒类指数相 比，细分食品指数摒除三四线酒企，主要覆盖贵州茅台（600519）、五粮液（000858）、泸州老窖 （000568）、山西汾酒（600809）、洋河股份（002304）等一二线白酒龙头企业，合计权重近六成，同 ...

12月24日，北京市住房城乡建设委、市发展改革委、人民银行北京市分行、北京住房公积金管理中心等 4部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产相关政策的通知》（以下简称《通知》），自2025年 12月24日起施行。 此次北京带头进一步放宽住房限购政策，有望推动顺周期复苏。 此前，国海证券指出，房地产市场持续的结构性调整，可能通过资产负债表效应压缩居民财富感知，进 而不仅抑制消费意愿，也进一步削弱购房者的加杠杆意愿。 东吴证券提供的数据显示：2024年我国居民消费率为39.9%，与发达国家相比仍有约10-30个百分点的差 距。 在消费潜力方面，相比必需消费，发展型、享受型的可选消费"正处在普及与升级阶段"，或更具成长 性。 有北京房地产中介人员向客户分享了一幅政策调整前后的对比图： 关注房地产及可选消费、顺周期相关ETF后市表现： 《通知》调整集中在几方面：一是放宽非京籍家庭购房条件，将非京籍家庭购买五环内商品住房的社保 或个税缴纳年限，由现行的"3年"调减为"2年"；购买五环外商品住房的，由现行的"2年"调减为"1年"。 二是支持多子女家庭住房需求。二孩及以上的多子女家庭，可在五环内多购买一套商品住房，即：京籍 ...

Core Insights - The food and beverage index underperformed the broader market in September, with all sub-sectors in a phase of adjustment. The focus for October will be on Q3 earnings reports, with attention on high-performing stocks and sectors [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - In September, the food and beverage industry index declined by 4.9%, underperforming the Wind All A index by 5.7%, ranking 27th among 31 sub-industries [3] - All ten sub-sector indices experienced a pullback, with meat products, soft drinks, pre-processed foods, and beer showing relatively smaller declines of -0.3%, -1.4%, -1.8%, and -3.5% respectively [3] Group 2: Alcohol Sector Insights - During the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, the overall sales of liquor declined by 20%-30%, with variations across scenes, regions, and brands. Business banquet demand remains weak, while mass consumption and gatherings are relatively stable [1] - In terms of brand performance, top liquor brands are seeing a recovery in demand, with Kweichow Moutai's sales volume doubling month-on-month and increasing over 20% year-on-year since September [1] Group 3: Supply Chain and Consumer Trends - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have introduced policies to boost service consumption, which is expected to enhance consumer confidence [1] - Travel during the National Day holiday showed steady growth, with approximately 2.432 billion people moving across regions from October 1 to 8, averaging 304 million daily, a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [1] Group 4: Pricing and Cost Trends - In September, the wholesale prices of various liquors faced downward pressure, with notable declines in prices compared to the previous month and year [2] - The prices of packaging materials showed mixed trends, with PET and packaging film prices down by 7.1% and 4.8% year-on-year, while aluminum, glass, and cardboard prices increased by 3.2%, 2.6%, and 8.0% respectively [2] - Raw material costs for sugar, flour, quail eggs, and pork decreased significantly year-on-year, while prices for soybeans, palm oil, and sunflower seeds saw slight increases [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicates that the food and beverage index underperformed the broader market in September, with all sub-sectors undergoing a phase of adjustment. The focus for October will be on the performance of third-quarter reports, with a recommendation to pay attention to high-performing stocks and sectors. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2025, there is an expectation of improvement in PPI gradually transmitting to CPI, suggesting a focus on cyclical stocks that are at valuation bottoms and experiencing supply clearance [1]. Summary by Categories Market Performance - In September, the food and beverage index showed weaker performance compared to the overall market, with all sub-sectors in an adjustment phase [1]. Future Outlook - For October, the market will concentrate on third-quarter earnings reports, with a recommendation to focus on high-performing stocks and sectors [1]. - By the fourth quarter of 2025, there is an expectation that improvements in PPI will gradually lead to improvements in CPI, indicating a potential focus on cyclical stocks [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests three main investment lines for the medium to long term: 1. Growth stocks in new categories and new channels [1]. 2. Sectors with relatively stable demand and improved competitive landscapes [1]. 3. Cyclical recovery directions [1].

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage index underperformed the broader market in September, with all sub-sectors undergoing adjustments. Attention is expected to shift towards Q3 earnings reports in October, highlighting potential investment opportunities in high-performing stocks and sectors [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The food and beverage index showed weaker performance relative to the overall market in September [1] - All sub-sectors within the food and beverage industry are currently in an adjustment phase [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - In October, the market focus will be on Q3 earnings reports, with an emphasis on high-performing stocks and sectors [1] - For Q4 2025, there is an expectation that improvements in PPI will gradually transmit to CPI, suggesting a focus on cyclical stocks that are at valuation bottoms and experiencing supply clearance [1] Group 3: Long-term Investment Strategies - Long-term investment recommendations include three main lines: 1) Growth stocks in new categories and channels 2) Sectors with relatively stable demand and improved competitive landscapes 3) Cyclical recovery directions [1]

Core Insights - The overall sales of liquor during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays have declined by 20%-30%, with variations across scenes, regions, and brands [1] - Business banquet demand remains weak, while mass consumption and gatherings are relatively stable [1] - The liquor industry shows signs of recovery, particularly for leading brands like Moutai, which has seen a significant increase in sales [1] Liquor Industry Analysis - Sales during the holiday period have shown a decline of 20%-30%, with a notable differentiation in performance based on consumption scenarios, regions, and brands [1] - Business banquet demand is still low, while mass consumption and gatherings are holding up better [1] - Traditional liquor consumption provinces such as Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu are performing relatively well [1] - Moutai's sales have rebounded, with a reported increase of approximately 100% month-on-month and over 20% year-on-year since September [1] Restaurant Supply Chain Industry - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have issued policies aimed at boosting consumer confidence [2] - High-frequency consumer traffic initiatives are being launched to support the restaurant and service industries [2] - The transportation department reported a record high of 2.432 billion cross-regional movements during the National Day holiday, indicating a marginal recovery in consumer activity [2] Price Tracking and Cost Analysis - Liquor prices are under pressure, with various brands experiencing price declines compared to last year [3] - Packaging material prices have shown mixed trends, with some materials increasing while others have decreased [3] - Raw material costs for certain food items have decreased significantly, while others have seen slight increases [3] Investment Recommendations - The food and beverage index has underperformed relative to the broader market, with various sub-sectors in a phase of adjustment [4] - Focus on companies with growth potential in new categories and channels, such as Guoquan and Dongpeng Beverage [4] - Emphasis on stable demand and improved competitive landscapes in sectors like Nongfu Spring and Uni-President [4] - For cyclical recovery, attention should be given to leading liquor brands like Moutai and Wuliangye [5]

Summary of Conference Call on Supply Chain Logistics Industry Overview - The bulk supply chain industry is transitioning from profit margin generation to diversified services, with leading companies creating differentiated value through additional services and integrated upstream and downstream offerings [1][2] - The macroeconomic downturn has led to weak demand, putting pressure on prices of agricultural products, metals, and energy chemicals, resulting in increased market concentration towards leading firms [1][3] Key Insights - Leading companies like Xiamen Guomao have seen an increase in market penetration, but their profitability is still affected by macroeconomic conditions [1][4] - Xiamen Guomao has improved its operational quality by optimizing its business structure and utilizing futures hedging to mitigate demand-side pressures [1][5] - The performance of bulk supply chain companies is directly influenced by commodity price trends; rising prices enhance turnover and profitability, while falling prices have the opposite effect [1][6] Financial Performance - Xiamen Guomao's gross margin has improved by eliminating low-profit businesses and increasing the proportion of high-margin products [1][5] - The company has maintained a high dividend level, with a commitment to distribute 30% of its net profit to shareholders annually, often exceeding this amount [1][8] Future Projections - Future net profit forecasts for Xiamen Guomao are 1.24 billion, 1.58 billion, and 1.89 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding low price-to-earnings ratios of 11, 8.6, and 7.2 [1][9] - The company is expected to benefit from a cyclical demand recovery and improvements in operational quality, indicating high investment value [1][9] Market Trends - The bulk supply chain industry is witnessing a shift from margin-based business models to diversified service offerings, with leading players expanding market share despite economic challenges [1][10] - If demand rebounds, it could significantly enhance performance elasticity for companies like Xiamen Guomao [1][11] - Investors are beginning to position themselves in cyclical recovery sectors such as chemical logistics and general supply chains, with companies like Milkway and Hongchuan Wisdom showing improved operational quality [1][12] Additional Considerations - Evaluating the operational quality of bulk supply chain companies requires a comprehensive approach, considering gross margins and futures hedging gains [1][7] - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with a focus on potential demand reversals that could impact pricing and profitability [1][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the optimism surrounding China's technology sector, particularly in AI, and highlights the importance of domestic demand, self-sufficiency, and the response to external pressures such as tariffs [2][3][4]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The technology sector, especially AI, is seen as a key driver for investment, with significant growth potential in domestic computing infrastructure and applications [4][10]. - The Chinese automotive industry is experiencing a significant rise, with domestic market share increasing from 38% in 2015 to an expected 61% in 2024, indicating strong growth in both domestic and export markets [14]. - The healthcare sector, particularly innovative pharmaceuticals, is expected to benefit from increasing personal medical expenditures and supportive policies, presenting clear investment opportunities [11][12]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Context - The article discusses the resilience of the Chinese economy amidst external uncertainties, with a focus on the government's proactive policies to stimulate domestic demand and manage economic transitions [6][17]. - The ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. are acknowledged, but the article suggests that the impact on China's economic structure is manageable, with a shift towards high-end manufacturing and technology [16][17]. - The government's focus on reducing savings rates and expanding domestic consumption is expected to lead to supportive policies for new consumer trends, such as the silver economy and domestic brands [6][18]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The AI sector is highlighted as a critical area for investment, with expectations of rapid advancements and applications in various industries, including automotive and healthcare [4][10][19]. - The renewable energy sector is undergoing a transformation with a shift towards "anti-involution" strategies, aiming for healthier competition and sustainable growth [15]. - The manufacturing sector, particularly in construction and materials, is showing signs of stabilization after previous downturns, presenting potential investment opportunities [18].