顺周期复苏

Search documents
“顺周期前瞻布局”系列电话会:供应链物流
2025-08-18 15:10
"顺周期前瞻布局"系列电话会:供应链物流 20250818 摘要 大宗供应链行业正经历从赚取价差向多元化服务的转型,头部企业通过 提供附加服务和上下游一体化服务来创造差异化价值。 宏观经济下行导致需求疲软,农产品、金属、能源化工等大宗商品价格 承压,中小贸易商抗风险能力不足,市场集中度向头部企业集中。 头部大宗供应链公司如厦门国贸等,虽市场渗透率提升,但盈利能力受 宏观经济影响。通过优化业务结构和期货对冲,可部分缓解需求端压力。 大宗商品价格上涨可提高公司周转率和盈利质量,下跌则反之。企业可 通过优化业务结构和利用期货对冲来缓解价格波动带来的负面影响。 评估大宗供应链公司经营质量需综合考虑毛利率和期货对冲收益等因素, 厦门国贸通过剔除低利润业务和期货对冲提升了整体盈利能力。 厦门国贸通过提升周转率带动毛利率上升,并维持较高分红水平。预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 12.4 亿元、15.8 亿元和 18.9 亿元, 对应市盈率估值较低。 市场已开始布局顺周期复苏赛道,如化工物流、快运及大众供应链等领 域,相关公司经营质量改善,等待行业需求反转,值得关注并进行弹性 测算。 什么是大宗供应链,其商业模 ...
投资大家谈 | 景顺长城科技军团5月观点
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-18 11:26
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the optimism surrounding China's technology sector, particularly in AI, and highlights the importance of domestic demand, self-sufficiency, and the response to external pressures such as tariffs [2][3][4]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The technology sector, especially AI, is seen as a key driver for investment, with significant growth potential in domestic computing infrastructure and applications [4][10]. - The Chinese automotive industry is experiencing a significant rise, with domestic market share increasing from 38% in 2015 to an expected 61% in 2024, indicating strong growth in both domestic and export markets [14]. - The healthcare sector, particularly innovative pharmaceuticals, is expected to benefit from increasing personal medical expenditures and supportive policies, presenting clear investment opportunities [11][12]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Context - The article discusses the resilience of the Chinese economy amidst external uncertainties, with a focus on the government's proactive policies to stimulate domestic demand and manage economic transitions [6][17]. - The ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. are acknowledged, but the article suggests that the impact on China's economic structure is manageable, with a shift towards high-end manufacturing and technology [16][17]. - The government's focus on reducing savings rates and expanding domestic consumption is expected to lead to supportive policies for new consumer trends, such as the silver economy and domestic brands [6][18]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The AI sector is highlighted as a critical area for investment, with expectations of rapid advancements and applications in various industries, including automotive and healthcare [4][10][19]. - The renewable energy sector is undergoing a transformation with a shift towards "anti-involution" strategies, aiming for healthier competition and sustainable growth [15]. - The manufacturing sector, particularly in construction and materials, is showing signs of stabilization after previous downturns, presenting potential investment opportunities [18].
欧科亿:数控刀具毛利率承压,等待景气度复苏-20250427
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-04-27 03:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating a recovery in the tool industry due to national economic stimulus policies [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.127 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.81%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 65.48% to 57 million RMB [2]. - The hard alloy products segment showed resilience despite rising raw material costs, achieving a revenue of 501 million RMB, up 12.5% year-on-year, with a stable gross margin of 15.42% [3]. - The CNC tool business faced challenges with a revenue of 598 million RMB, a growth of 3.35%, but a significant decline in gross margin to 29.85%, down 10.57 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased raw material costs and a higher proportion of outsourced products [4]. - The tool industry is viewed as a priority sector for cyclical recovery, expected to benefit from improved profitability and performance growth alongside valuation recovery [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.127 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 9.81%. The net profit was 57 million RMB, reflecting a decline of 65.48% [10]. - The projected net profits for 2025 to 2027 are 95 million RMB, 157 million RMB, and 219 million RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28X, 17X, and 12X [5]. Business Segments - Hard alloy products generated 501 million RMB in revenue for 2024, with a gross margin of 15.42%, indicating a slight improvement despite raw material price increases [3]. - CNC tools generated 598 million RMB in revenue, but the gross margin fell to 29.85%, primarily due to rising material costs and increased reliance on lower-margin outsourced products [4]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the tool industry will be a key area for cyclical recovery, benefiting from government fiscal policies aimed at stimulating the economy [4].