2026.03. 03 本文字数：2631，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 栾立 茅台的市场化改革的效果正在市场端体现。3月3日，第三方报价平台显示，53度飞天茅台批价已经 连跌3天，今日原箱批价从3月1日的1700元/瓶跌至1600元/瓶。据茅台炒家介绍，茅台价格下跌固 然有节后市场价格回落的因素，但"i茅台"造就的散户大军正在改变茅台的批发价规则，过去囤货炒 价、散户接盘的模式难以为继。 茅台价格节后快速回落 "茅台价格已经跌了3天了。"北京酒商韩亮告诉记者，春节期间，茅台整箱批发价格一直稳定在 1700元/瓶以上，前几天他刚刚又补了批货，好在总量不大，不过酒价快速下跌还是出乎他的意 料。 韩亮是一家酒水商贸公司的负责人，长期从事酒水团购，日常生意中，难免客户会有茅台的需求，韩 亮常常从各种渠道拿货。时间久了，韩亮发现，茅台作为通货市场价格比较透明，倒货利润空间很 小，正常他从经销商处拿货后转手加个十几元就出售给客户，但如果在合适的时间囤货，往往利润会 比卖酒本身还高。比如龙茅上市初期，只要能拿到货，囤上几天就有几百元/瓶的利润。 跌幅更大的是"马年"生肖茅台。2月25日，"马年"茅台基本款原箱的 ...

Group 1 - Several A-share listed companies are launching "Year of the Horse" themed products as the 2026 Spring Festival approaches [3][6] - Kweichow Moutai has introduced a new marketing plan focusing on a pyramid product structure to meet diverse consumer needs, emphasizing premium and zodiac wines [3] - Other liquor companies like Wuliangye and Yanghe are also releasing zodiac-themed products, available on major e-commerce platforms [6] Group 2 - The demand for gold jewelry has significantly increased with the upcoming Year of the Horse, leading to seasonal growth in customer traffic and order volume for companies like Cuihua Jewelry [6][8] - Qingdao Kingwang has launched a new ceramic fragrance gift box for the Year of the Horse, available on Tmall [8] - Various companies are implementing special marketing activities for the Year of the Horse, such as Senma's interactive online events and in-store experiences [8]

Group 1 - The traditional promotional season for liquor, particularly for Moutai, is approaching as spring nears, with high demand and tight supply reported at retail outlets [1] - The price of Feitian Moutai has seen significant fluctuations, with reports of price increases occurring multiple times in a single day, drawing comparisons to the volatility of gold and stocks [1] - The market price for Feitian Moutai has recently stabilized around 1,764 yuan after reaching a peak of 1,813 yuan on January 31 [3] Group 2 - The market price for the Year of the Horse Moutai has increased by 57% recently, surpassing the price increase of Feitian Moutai, with a current price of 2,998 yuan [3] - Retail promotions for Moutai have been launched by major supermarkets, with prices as low as 1,616.5 yuan per bottle during promotional events [10] - Other high-end liquors like Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 have maintained stable prices after adjustments in 2025, while promotional strategies have shifted towards increasing bottle opening rates [10]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of illegal "外挂" software for purchasing tickets and products like "i茅台" during peak consumption seasons poses significant risks to consumers and market integrity [1][2][10]. Group 1: Illegal Software Sales - Numerous sellers on second-hand platforms are offering "外挂" software claiming to enhance the success rate of purchasing "i茅台" [2][5]. - The software, such as Storm Sniffer, is marketed as capable of automating the purchase process, but sellers do not guarantee successful transactions [5][6]. - "i茅台" has issued a statement condemning the sale of such software, highlighting its negative impact on market order and potential legal violations [2][6]. Group 2: Security Risks - Experts warn that the "外挂" software does not possess genuine automated purchasing capabilities and may compromise user data security [8][12]. - Users of these software face risks of personal information leakage, financial loss, and potential legal consequences due to the use of illegal scripts [12][13]. - The software can capture sensitive data, making users vulnerable to further scams and identity theft [13]. Group 3: Legal Implications - The sale and use of "外挂" software violate multiple laws, including the Anti-Unfair Competition Law and the Consumer Rights Protection Law in China [6][7]. - Serious violations may lead to criminal charges, including penalties for providing tools for illegal access to computer systems [7][6]. - Legal experts suggest that users suffering financial losses from using such software can seek legal recourse through complaints or lawsuits [13].

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increases of Moutai products are driven by a combination of seasonal demand and the company's market-oriented reforms, which include a shift from a fixed pricing system to a dynamic pricing mechanism [5][11]. Group 1: Price Trends - The price of 2026 Moutai original boxes has reached 1590 yuan per bottle, an increase of 35 yuan from the previous day, while the 2025 Moutai original boxes are priced at 1600 yuan, also up by 35 yuan [3]. - The price of non-standard products, such as the Year of the Horse Moutai classic version, has seen significant increases, with a daily rise of 120 yuan, totaling a 400 yuan increase over three days [3]. - The retail price of Moutai at the terminal has stabilized around 1700 yuan per bottle, with the demand for gifts during the Spring Festival being a key factor in this price increase [13]. Group 2: Market Reforms - Moutai is implementing a market-oriented reform that alters its pricing strategy, moving away from the fixed guidance price of 1499 yuan established in 2017 to a flexible pricing model based on market supply and demand [5]. - The company is transitioning its operational model from traditional self-sale and distribution to a multi-dimensional collaboration involving self-sale, distribution, consignment, and agency sales [7]. - Moutai's new model changes the role of distributors, who will now earn fixed commissions rather than holding product ownership, thus altering their profit structure [7]. Group 3: Product Structure and Distribution - Moutai is adjusting its product structure to return to a "pyramid" product system, focusing on the flagship Moutai, with additional offerings like kilogram Moutai and 100ml small Moutai [9]. - The iMoutai platform has increased its product offerings ahead of the Spring Festival, allowing for a daily purchase limit of six bottles of Moutai per person [9]. - The company has expanded its distribution capabilities by adding new shipping warehouses in Nanjing and Beijing to address logistics challenges and improve delivery times [14].

Core Viewpoint - The market for the misprinted Maotai zodiac liquor has cooled down quickly after an initial surge, with prices stabilizing and showing no significant differentiation from the corrected version [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The misprinted Maotai, which had a packaging error with the character "昴" mistakenly printed as "昂", initially saw prices rise to between 2500 and 3000 yuan per bottle after the incident [2]. - However, the excitement was short-lived, as the market response was not as strong as expected, with the price stabilizing around 2300 yuan per bottle shortly after the initial spike [2]. - Currently, the resale prices for both the misprinted and corrected versions are similar, indicating a lack of sustained demand for the misprinted version [2]. Group 2: Price Trends - Compared to previous years, the price of the Maotai zodiac liquor is not as robust, with the current market showing a long-term downward trend [3]. - The average recovery price for regular Maotai has been maintained between 1450 and 1500 yuan per bottle, with the Maotai zodiac liquor achieving a premium of only 300 to 400 yuan, which is considered modest [3]. - The likelihood of price inversion for the Maotai zodiac liquor remains low, despite the potential for further declines in the short term [3]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The attitude towards zodiac Maotai is becoming more rational, with consumers moving away from speculative buying and focusing on realistic investment and collection perspectives [4]. - The overall white liquor consumption has seen a decline in response to changing economic conditions, contributing to a more cautious market environment [4]. - This year, several liquor companies have launched zodiac products, but the promotional efforts have been notably subdued compared to previous years [3].

Core Viewpoint - The market for the misprinted Year of the Horse Moutai has cooled down quickly after an initial surge, with prices stabilizing and not showing the expected appreciation, indicating a return to rationality in the zodiac liquor market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The misprinted Moutai saw a price increase from approximately 2,100 yuan per bottle to a peak of 2,500-3,000 yuan after the misprint was discovered, but this spike was short-lived [1]. - After the initial excitement, the price of the misprinted Moutai stabilized around 2,300 yuan per bottle, showing no significant difference from the corrected version [1]. - The overall market response to the misprinted Moutai was less than anticipated, with many resellers and liquor merchants noting a lack of sustained demand [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - The price of Moutai, including the misprinted version, is not as robust as previous years' zodiac editions, with the market for the Year of the Horse Moutai showing a slower decline compared to past products [1]. - Current market conditions indicate that the average recovery price for regular Moutai remains between 1,450 and 1,500 yuan per bottle, with the Year of the Horse Moutai achieving a premium of only 300 to 400 yuan, which is considered modest [3]. - The likelihood of price inversion for the Year of the Horse Moutai is low, although short-term declines in price are expected [3]. Group 3: Industry Sentiment - The promotional approach for zodiac liquors this year has been notably more subdued compared to previous years, reflecting a shift in market strategy among liquor companies [3]. - The attitude towards zodiac Moutai is becoming more rational, influenced by changes in consumer behavior and economic conditions, leading to a decline in speculative buying [3].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai liquor has seen minor fluctuations, with a significant drop in the newly released Year of the Horse edition, reflecting a typical pattern of initial hype followed by normalization in pricing. The demand for Moutai is primarily driven by social needs rather than just its historical significance or taste [1]. Price Changes - The price of the 2024 Year of the Horse Moutai (original box) increased by 20, now priced at 1720 per bottle [6]. - The price of the 2021 Year of the Horse Moutai (original box) decreased by 20, now priced at 1880 per bottle [6]. - The price of the classic Year of the Horse edition decreased by 120, now priced at 2180 per bottle [6]. - The price of the premium Year of the Horse edition decreased by 300, now priced at 5200 per bottle [6]. - The price of the Xiaozui Xian liquor (loose bottle) increased by 5, now priced at 145 per bottle [6]. - The price of the 25-year Shengle Moutai increased by 10, now priced at 1880 per bottle [6]. - The price of the 43-degree original box increased by 10, now priced at 820 per bottle [6]. Social Demand - Moutai liquor serves as a crucial social tool in Chinese culture, facilitating interpersonal communication and enhancing social interactions. It is often used in business settings to show respect and convey corporate strength and sincerity [1].

Core Viewpoint - The "iMoutai" product has been sold out in seconds for 19 consecutive days, leading to the emergence of reselling software and practices among scalpers, who claim to offer "early access" to purchases [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price of "iMoutai" has a significant arbitrage opportunity, particularly with the new Year of the Horse Moutai, which has a premium exceeding 700 yuan per bottle [2]. - The retail price of Moutai is currently stable at around 1550 yuan per bottle, but the arbitrage potential for certain varieties like the Year of the Horse remains substantial [4]. - The wholesale price of the basic Year of the Horse Moutai is approximately 2600 yuan per bottle, while the premium version reaches 5400 yuan, doubling its initial price of 2499 yuan [4]. Group 2: Scalping Techniques - Scalpers utilize a combination of manual experience and automated software/scripts to increase their chances of successfully purchasing Moutai products [3]. - Some software claims to allow users to "enter early" into the purchasing process, enhancing their chances of securing a product before it sells out [3]. - Despite the use of these scripts, there is no guarantee of success, as users may still encounter messages indicating "insufficient stock" or "event has ended" [3].

Group 1 - The "iMoutai" platform has experienced a phenomenon where popular products have sold out in seconds for 19 consecutive days, creating a lucrative business for resellers [1] - The new zodiac-themed Moutai has a price premium exceeding 700 yuan per bottle, leading to the use of automated scripts and software by resellers to secure purchases [1][2] - Consumers have reported frustrations on social media after participating in the purchasing process for over ten days without success [1] Group 2 - Resellers utilize a combination of manual experience and auxiliary software to increase their chances of securing purchases, with some software originally designed for concert ticket sales being repurposed for Moutai [2] - Software claims to allow users to "enter early" into the purchasing process, although it does not guarantee successful purchases, as users may still encounter messages indicating insufficient stock [2] - The market price for Moutai remains relatively stable, with the retail price around 1550 yuan per bottle, but there is still significant arbitrage potential for certain varieties like the zodiac-themed Moutai [3]