新华财经上海10月9日电中信建投证券研报认为，国庆长假期间港股器械公司整体表现较好，多个医疗 器械龙头公司收涨。预计医疗器械板块三季度多家公司受益新产品新业务放量而实现环比改善，或去年 同期低基数基础上实现高增长；其中高值耗材和医疗设备及上游板块的部分公司实现高增长，IVD（体 外诊断）行业部分企业短期受医保DRG（疾病诊断分组）改革和集采等政策影响有所承压，低值耗材 行业各公司情况有所分化。短期来看建议把握业绩改善个股的轮动上涨机会，长期来看建议关注创新、 出海和并购整合的机会。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

人民财讯10月9日电，中信建投（601066）证券研报认为，假期期间港股器械公司整体表现较好，多个 医疗器械龙头公司收涨。预计医疗器械板块三季度多家公司受益新产品新业务放量而实现环比改善，或 去年同期低基数基础上实现高增长；其中高值耗材和医疗设备及上游板块的部分公司实现高增长，IVD 行业部分企业短期受DRG和集采等政策影响有所承压，低值耗材行业各公司情况有所分化。短期来看 建议把握业绩改善个股的轮动上涨机会，长期来看建议关注创新、出海和并购整合的机会。 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Pharmaceutical Industry Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical industry experienced a profit decline in 2019 due to centralized procurement policies, but demand growth during the pandemic provided some relief. By the first half of 2025, segments such as innovative drugs, pharmaceutical commerce, and CXO showed positive growth, although overall profit levels continued to decline [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Centralized Procurement Impact**: The centralized procurement of medical consumables began in 2020, leading to negative revenue growth for two consecutive quarters by Q4 2023. However, Q1 2024 saw a return to positive revenue growth, indicating a stabilization in high-value consumables [3][4]. - **Sector Performance**: The chemical preparations sector saw significant revenue declines in Q3 and Q4 of 2023, directly linked to centralized procurement policies. The medical consumables sector has faced revenue and profit pressures since 2022, with in vitro diagnostics (IVD) expected to face challenges starting Q4 2024 [5][6]. - **Future Outlook**: The worst period for the pharmaceutical industry is believed to be over, with price issues being resolved. The price levels are relatively low compared to international markets, and a return to positive growth is anticipated in Q2 2025, potentially leading to an overall positive growth for the year [6][7]. Segment-Specific Insights - **CXO Sector**: The CXO sector is divided into demand-driven and supply-driven enterprises. The latter has benefited from the recovery of overseas markets, while domestic demand-driven companies are beginning to show signs of recovery, as evidenced by the performance of companies like Tigermed and Northstar [7][8]. - **IVD Sector**: The IVD sector is under significant pressure due to policy impacts, with a notable 20% decline in Roche's domestic luminescence business. The overall industry growth rate is approximately -15% [12][13]. - **Medical Equipment**: The medical equipment sector has faced continuous declines since Q4 2023, but signs of recovery were noted in the first half of 2025, with companies like United Imaging and Mindray showing varying degrees of recovery [17][18]. Additional Important Points - **High-Value Consumables**: The high-value consumables sector has undergone multiple rounds of centralized procurement, leading to stable or improved performance for many companies. The gross margin levels for high-value consumables have reached a bottom, with certain products like artificial crystals beginning to see the effects of procurement policies [19][20]. - **Internationalization of Domestic Companies**: Domestic high-value consumables companies are enhancing their international capabilities, with significant clinical data published and FDA certifications obtained for products aimed at the U.S. market [23]. - **Market Competition**: The competition in the luminescence industry is intense, particularly among companies outside the top three, which are resorting to price cuts to gain market share, resulting in significant declines in gross margins [13][14]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the pharmaceutical industry, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within various segments.

Core Viewpoint - The domestic medical device industry is in a rapid development phase, with short-term negative impacts from medical insurance cost control, but the company remains optimistic about innovation-driven import substitution and globalization development, expecting a potential turning point in the medical device sector by Q3 2025 [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - In H1 2025, revenue for medical device listed companies was 121.296 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 6.32%, while net profit excluding non-recurring items was 15.831 billion yuan, down 23.07% [1] - Revenue growth rates for different sub-sectors in H1 2025 were as follows: high-value consumables (+3.99%), low-value consumables (+0.31%), medical equipment (-5.84%), and in-vitro diagnostics (-15.72%) [1] - The high-value consumables sector is entering a post-collection phase, showing significant improvement, especially in categories like orthopedics and electrophysiology [1] Group 2: High-Value Consumables - The high-value consumables sector showed a revenue growth of 3.99% in H1 2025 and a net profit increase of 1.97% [2] - In Q2 2025, revenue growth for high-value consumables was 7.61%, with net profit growth of 10.46%, indicating a robust performance compared to other sectors [2] - The sector is expected to benefit from collection optimization and continuous innovation, with key companies to watch including Microelectrophysiology, Huatai Medical, and Sanyou Medical [2] Group 3: Medical Equipment - In H1 2025, the medical equipment sector experienced a revenue decline of 5.84% and a net profit drop of 24.94% [3] - The sector is expected to see a recovery in Q3 2025 as tendering processes resume and low base effects kick in, although inventory digestion will take time [3] - Future performance may vary across different sub-sectors due to differences in demand release post-pandemic [3] Group 4: Low-Value Consumables - The low-value consumables sector saw a revenue increase of 0.31% in H1 2025, but net profit fell by 21.56% [4] - In Q2 2025, revenue declined by 1.63%, with net profit down 42.37%, highlighting the need to assess geopolitical risks for companies with significant overseas exposure [4] - Companies with established customer bases and overseas production capabilities are expected to achieve sustained growth [4] Group 5: In-Vitro Diagnostics - The in-vitro diagnostics sector faced a revenue decline of 15.72% in H1 2025, with net profit down 40.68% [4] - The decline is attributed to multiple negative policies, including DRGs and collection, leading to a drop in both volume and price [4] - The sector is expected to stabilize by mid-2026, with long-term growth potential driven by innovation and international expansion [4]

Group 1 - The Shanghai government is promoting the full-chain development of the high-end medical device industry, emphasizing the need for innovation and focusing on key product directions to achieve significant results [1] - Huajin Securities believes that the medical device sector is experiencing a policy shift, with improved profitability for related companies due to optimized procurement rules, and the sector is expected to undergo valuation recovery as it is currently at a relatively low valuation [1] - Key areas of focus include: 1) Medical equipment driven by replacement policies and reduced compliance impacts, leading to a potential performance turnaround as inventory clears [1] 2) High-value consumables where procurement impacts are gradually dissipating, with attention on companies showing fundamental improvements [1] 3) New technology directions such as AI in healthcare and brain-computer interfaces, with favorable policies accelerating product commercialization [1] Group 2 - Caixin Securities notes that large models like DeepSeek are enhancing medical efficiency and resource optimization, indicating that the AI healthcare sector is expected to continue expanding as procurement impacts are gradually absorbed [2] - The domestic market share in orthopedic consumables and electrophysiology is steadily increasing, suggesting a positive trend for local manufacturers [2] - The medical device industry is anticipated to achieve multidimensional development through technological platformization, AI diagnostics expansion, and consumer healthcare extensions, transitioning from scale expansion to higher-level development stages [2]

Summary of Medical Device Industry and AI Medical Analysis Industry Overview - The medical device industry is experiencing growth driven by an aging population, increasing diagnostic and treatment demands, and improvements in patient payment capabilities due to the development of health insurance and commercial insurance [1][3] - The domestic medical device market in China has significant potential, supported by advancements in underlying technologies and a mature supply chain in regions like the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta [2] Key Insights - **Aging Population Impact**: The demand for medical devices is steadily increasing due to the aging population, with China's medical device-to-drug ratio currently at 2.9 compared to the global average of 1:4, indicating room for growth [3] - **Domestic Substitution**: The shift towards domestic medical devices is crucial, especially in high-level hospitals where the cost of medical materials is significant. The penetration of medical devices varies with economic development levels [4] - **Centralized Procurement Policy**: This policy is expected to suppress the valuation of the medical device sector by reducing long-term market space and increasing short-term performance uncertainty. Price reductions can lead to significant pressure on distributors, with discounts reaching 60% to 80% [5][7] - **Market Trends**: The future of the medical device industry includes a focus on product quality and the importance of grassroots penetration. The development of domestic companies will further drive industry growth [6] Financial and Market Dynamics - **Investment Growth**: The investment scale for medical devices is projected to grow at an annual rate of approximately 7% from 2024 to 2027, with some tender data showing positive year-on-year growth [1][9] - **Market Share and Valuation**: Companies that can innovate or offer superior clinical outcomes are likely to benefit from centralized procurement policies, with expectations of improved valuations for previously suppressed companies [7][8] AI Integration in Medical Sector - **AI's Role**: AI is expected to lower medical costs by replicating physician intelligence, enhancing efficiency, and breaking cognitive limitations in areas like drug development and medical imaging [1][26] - **Commercial Models**: AI can be integrated into traditional products to enhance performance and create service-based revenue models, particularly in grassroots hospitals where software can be used on a pay-per-use basis [28][29] - **Regulatory Framework**: AI medical software is categorized based on its function, with different regulatory requirements for decision-support and data processing software [30][31] Future Opportunities - **Emerging Technologies**: Key areas with potential include electrophysiology, valve intervention treatments, gene sequencing technologies, and surgical robotics, which are expected to see significant growth [22][24] - **Market Focus**: The market is increasingly focused on efficiency improvements, with companies possessing strong AI capabilities likely to stand out in the competitive landscape [35] Conclusion The medical device industry is poised for growth driven by demographic trends, technological advancements, and regulatory changes. The integration of AI presents new opportunities for efficiency and cost reduction, positioning companies that adapt to these changes favorably in the market.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Pharmaceutical Industry - **Key Focus**: Policy outlook for the second half of 2025, emphasizing basic healthcare and innovation support [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - **Policy Direction**: The government aims to enhance medical accessibility and affordability while strengthening industry regulation. The focus is on supporting pharmaceutical innovation to meet clinical needs and achieve economic and social benefits [1][2] - **Support for Innovative Drugs**: The National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) and the National Health Commission (NHC) have introduced measures to support innovative drug development across five areas: R&D, insurance catalog, clinical application, diversified payment, and security measures. The commercial insurance innovation catalog is a highlight, allowing companies to apply concurrently and negotiate settlement prices [1][6][11] - **Separate Payment System Progress**: The separate payment system for innovative drugs is gradually advancing, with an increase in the number of domestic drugs included in Guangdong's separate payment scope. This is expected to enhance market access and coverage for innovative drugs [1][7] - **Drug Procurement Optimization**: The 11th batch of national drug procurement has optimized reporting methods and bidding rules, raising the bidding threshold and clarifying that new drugs will not be included in procurement. This aims to improve quality control and ensure reasonable pricing [1][13][14] Additional Important Content - **Real-Time Settlement**: As of May 2025, real-time settlement has been implemented in 300 regions, covering 77% of the country, with a total of 300 billion yuan allocated from the medical insurance fund. However, the impact on the growth rate of the insurance fund remains limited [3][15][16] - **Regulatory Environment**: The regulatory intensity in the healthcare sector will remain high, with ongoing efforts to address misconduct in medical procurement and retail pharmacy sectors [3][17][28][29] - **Medical Equipment Market**: The bidding scale for medical equipment is gradually increasing, with significant growth in areas such as medical imaging and surgical robots. However, the terminal prices are under pressure due to centralized procurement [3][23][24][25] - **IVD (In Vitro Diagnostics) Sector**: The IVD sector is experiencing slower progress in price adjustments due to different pricing mechanisms in hospitals, but there is a significant potential for domestic substitution as imported products still hold a large market share [20][21] Conclusion The pharmaceutical industry is undergoing significant changes driven by government policies aimed at enhancing healthcare accessibility and supporting innovation. The focus on regulatory compliance and quality control is expected to shape the industry's future landscape, with opportunities for growth in innovative drugs and medical equipment sectors.

Core Insights - The report continues to recommend focusing on innovative drugs and the innovative industry chain, highlighting improvements in both domestic and overseas markets for July 2025 [5][4] - The investment strategy suggests a sustained focus on innovative drugs and related industries, with a specific portfolio of recommended stocks for A-shares and H-shares [5][6] Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry reported a cumulative revenue of 994.79 billion yuan with a year-on-year decline of 1.4% from January to May 2025, while total profits decreased by 4.7% to 135.32 billion yuan [9][8] - The overall industrial added value for the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector grew by 0.9% during the same period, indicating a modest recovery [9][8] Market Performance - In June 2025, the pharmaceutical sector experienced a 0.70% increase, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.80% [10][11] - The medical service sector showed significant growth, with a 4.77% increase, while traditional Chinese medicine and medical commercial sectors faced declines of 1.86% and 1.23%, respectively [13][14] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for domestic innovative drugs to achieve sales growth supported by medical insurance negotiations and commercial health insurance [5][4] - Recommended companies with high-quality innovation capabilities include Kelun-Biotech, CanSino Biologics, and Innovent Biologics, among others [5][4] Valuation Insights - The overall valuation level of the pharmaceutical sector is currently at a PE (TTM) of 46.97, which is at the 73.1% historical percentile over the past five years [20][19] - The report indicates that the pharmaceutical sector's valuation has fully adjusted, with premium rates relative to the CSI 300 and the entire A-share market being at their five-year averages [20][19] Recent Approvals and Applications - In June 2025, four innovative drugs or biosimilars were approved for market entry, including three domestic products and one imported product [22][23] - The report tracks NDA and IND applications for innovative drugs, highlighting several key products and their respective companies [24][25][26]

Group 1: Medical Devices - The medical device sector is expected to see a recovery in performance in H2 2025, driven by the resumption of hospital tenders and inventory clearance [5][34]. - High-value consumables are anticipated to benefit from significant domestic substitution opportunities and the completion of centralized procurement, leading to improved performance elasticity for companies [5][24]. - The home medical sector is projected to recover growth due to an improved consumer environment and ongoing new product investments [5][35]. - The IVD (in vitro diagnostics) sector is expected to enter a structural recovery phase, with head companies and differentiated competitors seeking innovation and overseas expansion [5][28]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the medical device sector include Xinhua Medical, Kaili Medical, Mindray Medical, and Union Medical, with a focus on those benefiting from tender recovery and overseas expansion [5][36]. - For high-value consumables, companies like Microelectrophysiology and Microinvasive Medical are highlighted, particularly those in electrophysiology, orthopedics, and coronary intervention [5][36]. - IVD companies with high technical barriers and continuous new product launches, such as Aide Biological, are also recommended [5][36]. Group 3: Chain Pharmacies - The chain pharmacy sector is experiencing a recovery in performance expectations and valuation due to diversified product expansion [41]. - The industry is witnessing an acceleration in store closures and a slowdown in new openings, with leading companies expected to increase their market share [42][60]. - Recommended leading pharmacy companies include Dazhenlin, Yifeng Pharmacy, and Laobaixing, with a focus on those with superior management capabilities [43][87]. Group 4: Valuation and Market Dynamics - The valuation of chain pharmacies has seen recovery due to improved profit growth expectations and diversified strategies [47]. - The supply side is facing stricter drug price controls, but leading pharmacies are expected to maintain better pricing power due to their market position [56]. - The industry is undergoing adjustments, with leading companies likely to recover profit growth in 2025 as they adapt to market changes [74][79].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The policy direction focuses on "ensuring basic needs and strengthening innovation," aiming to enhance accessibility and affordability of medical products and services while promoting innovation across the pharmaceutical industry [4][7] - The support for innovative drugs continues to increase, with measures to enhance their quality development and integration into insurance systems [12][13] - The report highlights the ongoing collection and procurement processes for various drug categories, including generic drugs, traditional Chinese medicine, and high-value consumables, indicating a trend towards optimization and expansion [21][24][31] Summary by Sections 1. Top-Level Design Direction - The central government has issued guidelines to enhance social security and improve public services, particularly in the healthcare sector, emphasizing the need for equitable access to medical resources [7][8] 2. Support for Innovative Drugs - The National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) and the National Health Commission have released measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, including multi-channel payment systems and international promotion [12][13] - The introduction of a separate payment mechanism for long-term and high-cost drugs is being implemented in various provinces, enhancing accessibility for patients [14][16] 3. Generic Drugs - The report anticipates optimization of the rules for the 11th batch of drug procurement, which is expected to take place in 2025, focusing on quality and price adjustments [21][23] 4. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The procurement rules for traditional Chinese medicine are becoming clearer, with expectations for quality improvements and market expansion [24][26] 5. High-Value Consumables - The report notes that most high-value consumable procurement has been completed, with ongoing attention to key product renewals and the expansion of procurement coverage [31][32] 6. In Vitro Diagnostics (IVD) - The report discusses the dual approach of alliance procurement and service price governance, indicating a comprehensive strategy to enhance the IVD sector [35][38] 7. Industry Regulation - Regulatory measures are being strengthened to guide high-quality development in the healthcare sector, including ongoing efforts to combat corruption and ensure compliance among medical institutions and retail pharmacies [8][9] 8. Real-Time Medical Insurance Settlement - The NHSA plans to implement real-time settlement of basic medical insurance funds by the second half of 2025, which is expected to alleviate cash flow pressures for medical institutions [9][10]